So we are now less than 7 weeks until the 2020 NZ Election due on October 17th. The pandemic has created an unforeseen unprecedented universal event that has generated a solidarity and a genuine gratitude of Jacinda’s leadership which is translating into political loyalty beyond anything we have seen in recent political history.
To be clear, Labour have NO idea what they are doing next, they are barely keeping their head above water because of the constant crisis pressure created by the pandemic and aren’t sure what policy to roll out. None of that matters however because a huge majority of the electorate just love Jacinda.
I know, I know, I know. That’s a crazy way to run a democracy, but she’s earned a second term and you all know it.
DATES:
- Sunday 6 September: Parliament dissolves
- Sunday 13 September: Writ Day – the Governor General formally directs NZ to hold the Election
- 19 September, 9.30am: Newshub Nation presents Battlegrounds – a special programme dedicated to some of the most hotly-contested electorates in the country, featuring a debate between the key Northland Candidates, on location in the Bay of Islands.
- Tuesday 22 September – The first Leaders’ Debate takes place between Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins at 7-8.30pm on TVNZ 1. Moderated by John Campbell.
- Monday 28 September – The Young Voters Debate in association with Auckland University will feature candidates from a range of parties and will be live streamed via 1news.co.nz and 1 NEWS social channels. Moderated by Jack Tame.
- Wednesday 30 September: Overseas voting starts
- 30 September, 7.30pm: Newshub Decision 2020 Leaders Debate with Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins, hosted by Patrick Gower and post-debate analysis by Tova O’Brien with guest panellists. Live on Three, ThreeNow, Newshub’s Facebook page and YouTube account. Simulcast on Magic Talk.
- Saturday 3 October: Advance voting starts
- 3 October, 9.30am: Newshub Nation presents Powerbrokers, its multi-party leaders’ debate featuring the Green Party’s Marama Davidson , the ACT Party’s David Seymour, and John Tamihere from The Maori Party.
- 7 October, 8.30pm: Newshub Decision 2020 The Cannabis Question, moderated by Patrick Gower. Live on Three, ThreeNow, Newshub’s Facebook page and YouTube account.
- Thursday 8 October – The Multi-Party Debate will include NZ First, The Green Party and Act at 7-8pm on TVNZ 1. Moderated by Jessica Mutch McKay.
- 14 October, 8.30pm: Newshub Decision 2020 The Euthanasia Question, moderated by Patrick Gower. Live on Three, ThreeNow, Newshub’s Facebook page and YouTube account.
- Thursday 15 October – The final Leaders’ Debate airs at 7-8pm on TVNZ 1. Featuring Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins, this will be the last broadcast debate before New Zealanders head to voting booths on Election Day. Moderated by Jessica Mutch McKay.
- Friday 16 October: Advance voting ends
- Friday 16 October midnight: The regulated period ends. All election and referendum advertising must end. Signs must be taken down by midnight.
- Saturday 17 October: Election day. Voters can vote from 9am to 7pm.
- 17th October 7pm – The Greatest NZ Election Results Show on Earth: Magic Talk Radio with Sean Plunket, Damien Grant and Martyn Bradbury
- Friday 30 October: Preliminary results for the referendums
- Friday 6 November: Official results for the general election and referendums
LABOUR: Prediction 50%+
The middle classes see their lock down self sacrifice as the greatest act of NZ courage since the storming of Gallipoli and they are welded to how noble they were because it was the first time they felt the vulnerability the Precariat feel every day of the week.
That vulnerability spooked the bejesus out of them.
They are grateful to how Jacinda led us through this and that gratitude has manufactured a political loyalty that crosses class and ideological boundaries that will see Labour win an unprecedented majority Government.
Everything in NZ happens in the shadow of a global mountain of dead from the pandemic, and that forgives any Labour Party sin. Thankfully for Labour the vast majority of their supporters see the media as biased and unfairly critical so won’t accept the coverage of her.
Labour supporters can differentiate between the Government trying and the underfunded State failing. That provides Labour with enormous protection.
NATIONAL: Prediction less than 30%
Would you like a cucumber sandwich?
Judith has all the empathy of a hungry wolverine in a pre-natal ward.
The Polls are suggesting overtime voters see more of Judith they recoil in horror.
National are promising a hodgepodge of confused policy while constantly reminding voters how malicious National are, whether it’s ‘Merv’ ringing ZB Talkback or Judith’s husband going on weird Twitter rants, voters are continually seeing National at their worst.
If you look at the 200 000 older women who have swapped National for Labour, Judith is only succeeding in driving those voters closer to Jacinda, not further from her.
National will execute Judith the moment she loses the election, so expect Judith to get more desperate between now and October 17th.
NZ FIRST: Under 4% – No electorate
It’s all over rover. Without the ability to be the Queen maker, Winston has all the power of Jareth at the end of Labyrinth. NZ First is only powerful if we think it has power and without any immigrants to rave at, he’s gone burger. The ONLY chance is Shane Jones beating that boiled ham, Matt King in Northland, but that’s a steep climb because Jones’ verbiage is far too cosmopolitan for Northland voters who are better known for their fear of eclipses and electricity than love of provincial Keynesianism.
GREENS: 4% + 1 electorate
The Magical Private Harry Potter Environmental Academy the Greens bewilderingly gave $12m to is a gift that just keeps giving.
Backers of the Wizarding Green School were planting a magical crystal garden and I suspect the Greens thought they were actually training Jedi for the fight against climate change.
This will probably sink the Greens beneath 5%.
Chloe Swarbrick winning in Auckland Central is their only hope now.
ACT: 5% + 1 electorate
Guns. Guns. Guns. More Guns. Guns.
Now ACT have been taken over by the NZ NRA, David Seymour is hostage to their crazy demands for guns and ACT’s Deputy is promoting beneficiaries take a cut in welfare in solidarity with rich people losing money in the pandemic. The total collapse in National vote is boosting ACT in an uncritical way in that angry right wing voters are giving ACT a protest vote with no idea just how crazy ACT is.
This is so glorious for the Left who will now be able to frighten middle voters of an ACT-National Government in 2023, 2026 and 2029.
MAORI PARTY: Prediction 2 MPs
Exploiting the deep sense of resentment by Māori towards the neoliberal welfare agencies the Government haven’t been able to tame, the Māori Party have a chance for a Māori Electorate win plus 1 MP off the list.
TOP: Prediction 2%
Will pick up disgruntled National protest voters who see Judith’s leadership as a suicide mission.
New Conservative Party: Prediction less than 2%
Hateful of abortion, solo mothers, gays, solo mothers, cannabis and solo mothers, the New Conservatives love guns, patriarchy and more guns. Paranoid and frightened of any idea post the renaissance, the New Conservatives would represent a great leap backwards for New Zealand. It’s political thinking is so inbred, I suspect they would want to relax laws around cousins marrying. Banjo playing with your toes and burning books is mandatory to be a candidate. They will gloriously rob the Right by wasting vote.
Vision NZ: Prediction less than 1%
Hates all the same things as the New Conservatives but hates Muslims most. Libraries and clitorises would be banned if Vision NZ came to power.
One Party: Prediction less than 1%
Under ONE Party, I think Jesus becomes the Constitutional Head of State and God has to personally sign off on legislation. The NZDF would be given spirit spears to fight Satan and anyone caught working on Sunday is put to death. Gay Conversion treatment is mandatory for anyone who watches Glee. Electricity and any singing that isn’t praising Jesus is also banned.
Advance NZ, NZPP, NZ People’s Party & Reset Party
Sith Jedi and Svengali of self interest, Jami-Lee Ross continues to play Conspiracy Theorist Billy TK as he builds his Fringe Army.
The sudden ratcheting up of emergency powers and curtailing of our civil liberties has been frightening and this pandemic is scary. It is a complex thing with many real time adaptations that can feel intimidating and trigger anger. But to manipulate those legitimate emotions into a narrative that insinuates the virus is a bioengineered weapon spread by 5G to bring about a shadowy one world government that only QAnon can fight is fucking insane!
I don’t think there’s any chance of Billy TK and JLR entering Parliament, but it does gloriously waste right wing vote that will be reallocated to Labour on election night, but there must be a serious rethink of public broadcasting to stop this sort of flat earth delusional politics gaining a popular foothold.
Billy TK and JLR are a political swindle preying on the ignorance and fear of those who only source their news from Facebook. Never before has such political desperation mixed with pure insanity.
For these people books really are fuel for burning witches at the stake with.
The Integrity Party: Prediction less than nothing.
It’s that ugly blue green colour you have when environmentalism gets hit by capitalism. Has the kind of Māori buzz words you get when Wellington Bureaucrats are opening a sustainable pet crematorium.
Tea Party: Prediction less than 2%
The People’s Republic of China have decided their investment into National requires a new tail to wag it into an MMP Government.
REFERENDUM:
Euthanasia and Cannabis referendum will be a lot closer than they are now.
CONCLUSIONS:
With the enrolment rule changes that allow for enrolment on the day, prisoner voting alongside booths in Marae, I think we will see a large turnout.
I think overseas votes will go overwhelmingly to Labour and not the Greens.
I think with the huge number of fringe parties we will see more wasted vote than ever before.
I think the Government will be a Labour Majority.
I think National will be lucky to gain 30%.
I think Judith will increasingly become more desperate and vicious.
NZ First won’t be politically relevant.
The only hope for the Greens is Auckland central.
ACT will suffer rapid growth pains from candidates they haven’t vetted properly.
Labour only need 47% on election night to get scaled up for a majority.
Greens must hit 4.5% on election night to successfully get scaled up over the 5% threshold.
NZ First must hit 5.5% on election night to guarantee they won’t get scaled down under MMP.
Because of the high amount of wasted vote, the Māori Party should be able to gain an extra seat from their list with as little as 1% if they win an electorate seat.
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Yes the country feel far move secure with Aunty Jacinda in the box seat so Labour will rule.
It’s all downhill for Labour from this point on. The bad news is coming out daily and the clusterf*ck that is the Covid 19 response is the cherry on the cake of a series of failed implementations.
My guess: Labour will go under 50% and at that point the MMP lotto machine will ensure a randomized outcome.
Meanwhile, normal people produce actual results by going to work.
Tell us Andrew, where exactly would we be if your prize National Party (led by the Crusher) was/is in charge , i.e in Govt. thru this pandemic? The People, not Business although that would also be interesting.
Agree that Labour are still making lots of mistakes, particularly the early, maybe too early Auckland Level 2 change. This could go very badly.
Dear GreenBus
We would be exactly in the same place. A country that has some Covid cases.
Do you really believe that only and only Jacinda is capable of repeating what Ashely Bloomfield has directed her to say?
You Labour guys all suffer from…ehr, desperation.
” A veteran red-zone activist says if the government overseeing Christchurch’s quake response was managing the coronavirus pandemic “we’d have … 3000 or 4000 elderly folk dead”.
Mike Coleman, a red-zoned Anglican priest and school counsellor, says the then National government did not listen. “[We] could never get interviews with Gerry [Brownlee] to talk about the issues.”
Instead, Brownlee was “doing a Donald Trump, insisting “everything’s fine,” says Coleman.”
Seems once again you right wing peps cant handle truth. Desperately trying to create mystery homeless people, a party leader with the most appalling history and a deputy described as Donald Trump. Arrogance is a prerequisite for a right wing M.P.
National and ACT would have created thousands more deaths if in government, in a sense it aligns with ACT’s euthanasia referendum.
he also believes in the magic man in the sky…
Greenbus: It’s hard to predict what would have happened if someone else was in charge because we don’t get to rerun scenarios in history.
However if we look around the world various governments from the centre/left to the centre/right have adopted a wide range of policies with no particular political bias either way.
What seems to matter is the type of people advising government rather than the political leanings of the politicians.
Because both China and the WHO lied about the virus, most countries were caught off guard and several, including our own, took the narrowly focused advice of medical academics rather than including a more diverse group in policy forming. It now transpires that the resulting lockdowns have been a disaster for the country, not just economically, but counted in loss of life too! This because over 80% of people requiring tests and treatment for treatable but potentially fatal conditions didn’t go to a medical facility because either it was closed or they were afraid to go. The likely result will be a tsunami of deaths in the next 2-5 years. Did you miss your prostate/bowel/breast/cervical test this year? Many did!
Right wing media produce the bad news that comes out daily, rarely commenting on Nationals clusterf×/@! policies and inept MPs.
How do the Greens get scaled up if they only get 4.5%? Is that from oversea or ‘late’ votes?
Maybe the system of wasted votes being redistributed is more complex than I realise?
They don’t. Bomber isn’t right on this one. You have to get 5% and then you may get more seat/s from the wasted votes.
And yes, the system of wasted votes is complicated and totally undemocratic – http://tiny.cc/WastedVotes.
If Collins eats all that cake she has on the table, she will be lucky to be around come election time.
Going by her body shape, she has done it before it would seem.
Labour has a much larger ‘heard’ than any other party, and national are coming out with more toxic plans every day, making them even more unpleasant/unacceptable so that’s what wins elections not National pundits dreams of again ruling.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/300087746/why-is-national-struggling-to-convince-voters
Dream on National.
National are all about roads roads and more roads; and have eared the role of the ‘tarmac king’ – and will not support any freight on rails!!!!!
Roads they want are for more trucks so how many tyres per truck? 32 average per b train train and each tyre consists of 21 gallons of oil to manufacture each tyre so where does tyre dust off the trucks go to when shreaded off the tyres? READ THIS;
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/air-pollution-cars-tire-waste_n_5a6896e3e4b0dc592a0e6f8e
So National love using tres to move freight not steel wheels???
Lots of toxic tyre dust is then available and leeching of pollution into your water supplies and your environment!!! yum yum so vote for the National Party and get everyone polluted.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/08/kiwis-urging-aucklanders-to-stay-in-auckland-after-flocking-the-domestic-terminal.html
Meanwhile, anyone living south of the Bombays is segregating itself from Auckland i.e 2/3rds of the rest of the nation, calling for Aucklanders (who are now infected lepers care of Ashley Bloomfield) not to travel.
Look what Jacinda, Grant, Chris, MoH um all the other fuckwits running the show have now created by design “us and them”. WELL FUCKING DONE TEAM!!
If Bomber’s estimates are near correct then we could have 8% or 9% wasted votes.
After 20+ years of MMP it’s time to get rid of wasted votes i.e. the mechanism where you vote for party A and your vote gets distributed to parties B,C,D,E… because your party didn’t meet the threshold.
http://tiny.cc/WastedVotes
Tens of thousands of votes go to parties that never make it every year but that doesn’t matter as long as your vote is registered. Saying that a vote is wasted is just the way losers talk.
Your vote is wasted if the party you vote for doesn’t make it into parliament. A system which allows you a second chance if your first choice doesn’t make it obviates that disadvantage.
Exactly, and that is what we need here for the sake of fairness.
At present the wasted votes travesty plays into the hands of the (two) major parties as they become the recipients of the wasted votes.
you talk like all those losers on the standard
i.e. the system used in Ireland, Single transferable vote (STV)?
I agree. As much as I’m genetically predisposed to disagreeing when it comes to the platitudinous adulation of politicians, I agree that Labour should, indeed must, get a second term. Just to see… Otherwise, we may never know.
On a sobering note:
It will be from within that second term that Labour must rise like a Phoenix from the ashes.
If Labour doesn’t rise as one might reasonably expect then we’re all fucked and AO/NZ will be done for.
The riche will rule and we’ll be used and abused by not only our own exploitative little rightie traitors, liars and swindlers but the Chinese neo right will come in and drive over our dead, emaciated bodies on their way to the Casino in their fluro orange Lamborghini’s with the under-body LED’s and the pre programmed exhaust farts. (Seriously. Is a thing. )
We human, human beings are at a cliff edge. We’re there and now.
Are we going to allow the polyester freak show that is the natzo’s, and its she-trump psychopath leading the classless, cold blooded charge ahead of her cadre of lazy little rightie cheats, liars, deal-doers, big mouther’s, braggers, fancy, flouncing flash-shoe wearing homeless-people-stamper storm trooper legions of credit card brandishing to impress the cunning riche slapper, otherwise useless scunthorpes bragging about how awesome they are while we know they’re a drag on virtually every element of a life style we should all be enjoying except that the fat-berg freak-show natzo’s keep getting in the fucking way and hogging everything that’s not nailed down while blaming everyone else when their greed, waste and boring gasbag, self aggrandising verbal embellishments on their swindles and sharp deals comes back to bite them on their fat arses. The little righties must always stick to a script written by the deep state rogernome vampires of AO/NZ’s yore because today’s little righties have no imagination, thank God, or things could be even worse?
Labour? You’re up. And for fucks sake, don’t sink the cue ball half way through.
All Labour has to do is be clear, direct, kind and honest.And of course, a little value for our money wouldn’t go astray
That. Is.All.
Easier than trying to hide a trans-generational tome of lies, don’t you reckon natzo’s ?
In part you are correct Martyn. But you miss a couple of things. First Winston still has his core support, the gold card holders, 80,000 have been added since last election, yes a few have died the number overall continues to rise, many truely value the card and will reward Winston with their vote. Add to that the 20,000 service personel who for the first time in 50 years have a Minister who actually understands defence. Ron Mark
The service personel will reward NZF for their toys. Neither of these sectors wiĺl show in normal polling. NZF will survive at around 8%
On Act you may have under estimated their support David Seymore has tapped the “working man” market the “kiwi battler” Mike Moore was always on about. Will he be able to control his 8 or 9 MPs on that one we will have to see. Finally Billy TK is getting traction in the Maori hinterland maybe sufficient to kill the Maori party.
I agree 100% Clifford
NZF has a silent base with many gold cold holders; – and they know that it is only NZF party that stands for the retirees and that will sail Winnie through.
Ron Marks is a rising star that is a great speaker in parliament also so don’t count NZF out folks.
Labour, are in the pound seat of winning Alone possible probable, yet third term in the distance and when the reality of almost a collapse of the Capitalism!s structure due to the lockdown effect of the ongoing effect of this COVID, that shall be on-of continuous until some form of remedy or inhibiter like a flu jab is available and that jab is not always a guarantee of free of flu, as in all probability like a COVID jab or pill.
So who the op, well the obvious farm fence Nats, along with their so-called Libertarian Party, better known by intelligence as basic Fascist, self- interest and no real care of only them and their selfish ilk.
So present Government partners who shall survive have seats in the house of lies and deceit. Now there is a TAB win for those inclined to punt. No a gambler myself, suggest the Greens, and N.Z First, so no change of those in the house of deceit, only change they like the op are in theory the op.
After tonight’s revelations – will Top get more votes than the greens? And who associated with the ewok village has Pictures of James Shaw in a compromising situation with a domestic animal?
Having read through all the so called analyses of parties and random Comments there is not a single reference to Social Credit who actually has some good policies unlike some of the bizarre policies of most of the others. Can some one explain that please?
Put the question to their P.R. person or team. The buck stops with the person in charge of letting AO/ NZ KNOW about Social Credit. It may be too late to have great success for this election? (Unless they magically create some noteworthy, newsworthy event which the media cannot ignore?). But if they’re still around for the next one, they need to fix their PR Dept urgently.
After tonight’s revelations… National will drop below 25%
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12361357
Nationals dirty politics is now called “misleading”.
A circus, indeed, and the clowns in government even look ‘competent’.
Like the competence Brownlee displayed during the EQC years or Woodhouses homeless man competence. Nine long years of Nationals incompetence.
So the debates are being fronted with the exception of Campbell by the chipmunk on meth and the National party enthusiast Much McKay.
Typical biased meddling by the TV networks that just can’t help themselves and allow the public to watch these debates and make up their own minds without the political interference of their National party masters.
Hold on a minute fella.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8509-nz-national-voting-intention-august-2020-202008310343
n August support for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party was at 48%, down 5.5% since July,
If an election were held today Labour could govern with the support of current partners the Greens.
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