Labour – 60.9%

National – 25.1%

Greens – 5.7%

NZ First – 2%

ACT – 3.3%



TDB Recommends

All last week, the usual voices on the right who have their own internal polling were silent. Hooton and Farrer were quiet as mice and we started privately thinking that maybe Judith was the kiss of death we thought she would be and it has become the reality.

The cold malice in Judith when she executed Lees-Galloway was a cruelty that made NZers recoil in horror.

National turned to her out of desperation and fear, the majority of NZers have turned away in disgust.

National are now in free fall, and I said that National volk would look at Bridges 29% fondly.

The solidarity that the lockdown created is cemented in now, Labour are on their way to a majority Governmen, a historic first and they will have to make transformative change.

The Greens are dead, they are going backwards. Their woke middle class identity politics is popular amongst the Wellington Twitteratti but as I’ve been pointing out for 3 years, twitter don’t mean shit. The Greens only chance is Chloe Swarbrick in Auckland Central.

NZ First are dead, their only chance is Northland.

And ACT, who have benefited so much from the free speech ammunition the work gave them last year is now over 3%. Horrifically that will allow the NZ NRA who are holding ACT hostage representation unless damning things can be revealed about their woefully vetted candidates.

NZers political loyalty was built when people were genuinely frightened and Jacinda made them feel safe, in the face of Judith’s malice, that solidarity is not eroding.

What the Right in NZ can not comprehend is the solidarity the lockdown generated – they are all selfish individualists, they can’t imagine what feeling bonded for the common good actually fells like, that’s why they are floundering.

The only people voting National now are those who call the PM ‘Cindy’, get irrationally angry anytime Neve is mentioned and who think ‘Crusher’ is a great nickname for a political leader.

Friends don’t let friends vote National

It is going to be a Labour majority Government.



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  1. All you lefties “get your hands off it”. I’m surprised TBH and will be interested if this is continued in the CB expected out soon. No excuses for being transformative if this poll is true….

    • “It’s a rouge poll” said big Gerry the deputy.Well he had to say that didn’t he, his job hangs dangling.
      Look on the bright side for National….well there isn’t any really!
      If this poll is true, seems you’ll have “both hands on it”.

  2. Well, here’s hoping that PM Ardern being nominated for a Nobel Prize doesn’t trigger dirty Judy into more Faustian utu or the gods may start weeping.

  3. It is vital that National suffer a heavy defeat at the election to send a message that their ideology and their modus operandi is no longer acceptable

  4. Yeah maybe. That certainly seems likely but while avoiding the cliche about time & politics, there are still a few weeks until polling day, weeks that a smart Labour Party looking to the future, should use to whack in some bulwarks against the inevitable swing to the right kiwis will fall for. Maybe for no reason other than “thats what everyone (ie whitefellas) everywhere else iare doing.

    I realise this is a vain hope given that the Labour has far more greedy careerist wannabe pols than it has slots on the party list or safe constituency seats, but a smart Labour Party as opposed to a collection of self-serving greedies, would free up a constituency spot for one of the more capable, credible Green pols. Not only do they have an overhang square up for Epsom, they have useful & essential lever to keep Greens in line should it become necessary.
    I won’t be holding my breath as time again we see Labour pols confining any strategic skills to those areas where the particular pol is trying to secure his/her personal political position.
    The position that a neolib Aotearoa Labour Party finds itself in is exactly the same as the position Albanese’s ALP or the despicable Starmer’s UK Labour Party.
    Without an ideology rooted in class struggle, unity simply isn’t possible, so given the least opportunity these neolib no-hopers resort to back-biting, clawing & scratching each other in the search for a ‘top dog’ spot.

    The tories’ greed for immediate material reward is something which allows conservative party leaders to control the arseholes and keep them in line where neolibs cannot as only about 50% of them are openly materially greedy. The other half have a range of compulsions ranging from sex addictions to messiah complexes – neither of which can ever be satisfied making those pols into walking time bombs, with no one, least of all the leadrship able to predict when one may ‘go off’.

    Of course that is nothing in comparision to what the average voter feels. The grasping tories are always gonna help the rich & screw the rest of us, we know that & somehow manage to live with it, but the mob of unprincipled shits in Labour have now become totally unpredictable. Will they go hard to deal with Aotearoa’s huge & inexcusable homelessness, or will they bend over to do more favours for the low scum who profit from unaffordable residential asset inflation?.

    Last year they happily went along with winston’s plan to split Kiwibank & Post Office premises – does that mean that next year Labour intends to privatize the bank? If they don’t why the hugely expensive separation.

    How much more watering down of kiwisaver scheme is on the cards? It is barely a super scheme now given the inroads which have been made into letting mugs cash out their super allegedly to assist people getting into the rsidential property market, yet all it did was encourage even more residential housing price inflation.
    So what is next? Will kiwisaver become just another failed super scheme, or does Labour plan on returning it back into a viable income support for retired kiwis?

    It is easier to see all the swings to the right as being the fault of Winston – except for the alacrity with which Labour grabbed at them, so how in hell can we trust them to fix the inconsistent policy mess that is Adern’s Labour Party?

    • good to hear from you debisdead ,longtime no hear from etc etc. Best analysis I have read so far in this election. Not enough of us card carrying cynics around these days. I do so loath Labour. Your description of them will keep me bubbling along for at least 48hours. Personally I am now veering towards voting Green cos they effing well deserve to be in the house even if their leadership is fucked just cos they can make Labour look shitty and dumb on a good day.

      • Thanks Shona, one of the paradoxes of D Trump is that after he was elected, US & Euro anti-imperialist sites received a fillip from right wing amerikan based anti-imperialists joining in.
        At first most were happy at the notion of a broad coalition of humans opposed to the murder, rape & theft of amerikan imperialism, however those that did enjoy the boost forgot rule number 1, that right wing politics inspired as it is by hatred & fear, couldn’t really coalesce with the left most of whose supporters are humanists inspired by an affection for all humans.

        The america first anti-imperialists were really only opposed to US imperialism because they had lapped up the nonsense about amerika’s imperialism being a cost to amerika, they had believed that deceit & couldn’t give a flying about the hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths of people who were unlucky enough to live close to some resource the US wanted.

        Their opposition became patchier as Trump pulled stunts like the illegal seizure of Syria’s oil resources or the theft of Venezuelan state assets.
        So the debate quickly became sophomoric & tedious and I opted out.

        In many ways it reminds of the neolib Labour parties support. There is no real philosophic foundation behind views put forward so inconsistency & inconstancy rule.
        Anyway I’m going to express my tiresome views about the coming election although I have absolutely no desire to be saying “I told you so” next year when the government struggles to deliver coherent policy on anything outside of the ideas of the Covid 19 boffins.

  5. Fan far king tastic. Made my day. People embracing Ardern more than ever. People rejecting the toxic and untrustworthy National Party and their leadership in unprecedented numbers. Great news and confirmation that the divisive National Party is now in NZ’s rear vision mirror and drifting further away. Their style of politics has caused more than enough carnage and has had it’s time.

    I’m sure it will shock everyone to hear that Gerry Brownstain is rejecting the poll as a “rogue poll”. Haha. More denial from National but no surprises there. They know best of course 🙂

  6. This is wonderful news. After all those years of nationals dirty politics and people not seeing through it. Well deserved Jacinda and Happy birthday

  7. One disturbing aspect of this is Ms Collins cold replies, that “Come Sept 19 I WILL be Prime Minister”.
    Other politicians in similar situations say something to the effect of, “Well, we’ll wait and see”.
    (Just not the one in the US.)

    So, what is she saying?
    – That she doesn’t give a stuff about what the people of Aotearoa want?
    – That she has more really dirty tricks up her sleeve that she’s going to try out on us?
    – That she has a way of changing the votes after they are cast?
    – That she has knowledge of some event still to happen, which is designed to change our perceptions?


    • Collins is detached from reality if she thinks she will be PM after this election. Still, I suppose she has to talk her chances up in order to try to retain *SOME* equally delusional supporters.

  8. Martin B …The New Zealand Labour Party is hardly a party of the Left …by any definition . I cannot agree with your blanket dismissal of the Green Party …..(yes it has it’s own flaws too ) I don’t think the Labour Party deserves to rule in it’s own right ., it needs to be challenged from the Left …and for that to happen it needs pressure from and leverage to, from representatives like Green Party MPS and Others.

    • Agreed. A healthy badgering to keep on track from a party that has environmental and social credentials.

  9. Mainstream media is also being punished for its own subversive tactics to create a St. Judith . Maybe the approach of demeaning, trite news and sarcassitic opinion journalism, attempting to blank out other real issues and voices, can’t fool the dumb public anymore?

  10. It’s just a poll, just another poll. It’ll all be forgotten in a couple of days.

    Then we can concentrate on the recuperation of all those with wrecked arms and shoulders from throwing toys out of their cots and the broken bones from tripping over them on the floors in certain homes. Gee, it’s so sad.

  11. I was wondering a few days ago how large the “base” (i.e. people that will vote National no matter what) of National was. Pretty sure it’s about this. I suspect they have nowhere to go but up from here.

  12. Politics swings in roundabouts. National was crowing that it was the death of the left when Cunliffe and co were melting down and now it’s their turn. This wont be forever, National will govern again and the left will be in a sorry state. It’s just how it all works. Ardern is just the current flavour of the month, much like Key was.

  13. Labour has started a green branch to accombate environmentally minded members and young people labour has many branches A green branch is a good addition the more ideas put forward the better labour really is a broad church So greens may be wiped out but there is a place within labour for the green movement we are better togeather than part espesaly on hoarding day and door knocking on Election Day

    • ” Im not celebrating till 9pm on 19th September ”
      Yeah we ditched FPP for MMP in 1996 because we had a gutsful of majority governments and no party has formed a single party government since 1993 our last election under FPP.
      Kiwis were also polled on whether they wanted one party majority or a coalition they overwhelmingly wanted the latter.
      I hope that if Labour are the largest party that they will need the Greens to govern.
      I expect to see the Greens with enough to get over the line.
      ACT is the only other party increasing its support and as National declines the only way is up.
      Five weeks is a lifetime in politics.

    • Agree, Millsy. Jacinda herself says, “I am never complacent”.
      Madame is plotting something. She seems very sure of the outcome, and her propaganda machine is at the ready.

  14. Looks like Judith is proving to be as popular as a fart in a an elevator. As for Gerry, well, he is just an old fart

  15. This poll is the excuse the Nats need to get into really really dirty politics and go Nuclear
    My Predictions :-
    1: Orewa style speech from Judith (Almost worked fro Brash)
    2: Dig up dirt on family members/partners of Labour MP’s -that all they left in the tank
    If there is a National Black Ops team they are amateurs and 2 will fail and backfire

  16. As much as I’d like to, I can’t get jonky’s sudden and mysterious departure out of my mind only to have national fall into the hands of the intellectually and politically ‘ill equipped’ and I’m struggling to be polite here.
    And as for that sociopathic nut job collins finding her way into national’s most senior position is more a work of fiction morphing into a terrible reality to be ignored.
    What’s really going on here?
    Has Labour really soared to its recent great heights on the wings of love, trust and prosperity or has national fell / been pushed through the floor giving Labour the appearance of, indeed, soaring in the polls?
    I ask myself, if I begin to feel as if I’m falling under Labour’s spells and potions, what is really going on here?
    After all, labour’s not yet come clean about allowing the neoliberal mafia to come in, steal our shit then fuck off with it and in so doing throwing us under the bus that’s been running over us for 36 fucking years! And I think I’m perfectly justified in making that comment because the relics of 1984’s acts of treason and treachery are still there! goff’s the mayor of Auckland and Dalziel’s the mayor of Christchurch and I know Adern still runs over to cullen when the cracks in labour’s neoliberal stucco start to open.
    And they’re just the neoliberals we can see. What about the privateers we never, or hardly ever heard of? The ones driving the machinery that’s harvested our stuff, things and cash money then scurried into hiding never to be seen nor heard of unless, like dirty old ron brierly, couldn’t stop their evil spilling over into the cold light of the public gaze?
    I mean? You hardly, if ever, hear about michael fay or david richwhite these days, much less alan gibb or graham heart etc? They were the ones behind subverting our politics to enable them to carry off what must be one of the most destructive and devilishly clever robberies in modern democratic history!
    I’m confident enough to state that labour will get in and as a majority gubbimint and they will govern wisely and kindly and cynically as we heal and rebuild from the grand thefts of 1984 while the architects of those days will get clean away with what they’ve done to us.
    I think we’re being conned and conned big.
    Or not. It’s now up to Labour to prove me wrong as far as I’m concerned.

  17. This poll seems too convenient, and I do not trust the figures, after all it is a Newshub poll.
    Waiting for a Colmar Brunton one.
    Regardless it’s the September 19th poll that actually counts.

  18. Wow, the cheering and backslapping is a sight to behold. The almost forgone conclusion on the basis of this poll that Labour will form a majority government. And this is over what? A poll whose period saw the Bridges/Muller coup and then the election of Collins followed by Kaye and Adams departures. Nobody likes this sort of chaos and I suspect blue voters who would never vote red, were high in the disapproving numbers in this poll and also helped push up Acts chances. A sort of lesson to the blue team from its supporters. I suspect this poll hardly even registers (if at all) the Lees-Galloway scandal which was still playing out. Still, the fact is that the red team have been awarded a kickable penalty against the blues teams lack of discipline. But the game has only started and it may be a little premature to consider the game won, with JC’s popularity appearing to rise!

    Sadly it is not a game! Peoples futures both young and old, rich and poor, sick and healthy, brown and white, north and south, on the male/female continuum, employed, not employed, all depend entirely on this 53rd parliament getting it very right for NZ’s and not just their supporters. The team that lifts the trophy should feel its immense burden and be humble in victory while the losing team should be gracious in defeat. No more election puffery, and broken promises of the past 12 years (blue and red).

    Unfortunately, the Tui’s billboards just aren’t big… back to the game!!

  19. Nothing to cheer about, I’d say. Have Labour govern alone and you will have a kind of Nat Lite government, doing sweet stuff all for the ones dependent on benefits and in urgent need for affordable housing. Is it any wonder after the last 2 weeks. Give it some time, and Judith may throw a few more spanners into the works, thus catching up on Jacinda and Labour.

    The Greens will get back in, but with Shaw and Davidson will be more words and little action, possibly even left on the cross benches to linger, rather than share the cabinet with Labour.

    Politics in NZ has become all personality games, after Key we have polished Ardern charm the populace, but deliver rather little, except COVID 19 brought under control.

    But wait:

    Is it really under control? A hidden and unnoticed cluster could lead to a massive cluster f*** like they have in Melbourne in Australia now.

    There goes the last positive bit the government may be able to present us.

  20. “Is it really under control? A hidden and unnoticed cluster could lead to a massive cluster f*** like they have in Melbourne in Australia now.

    There goes the last positive bit the government may be able to present us.”

    Nostradamus 101!
    A hidden asteroid might wipe NZ out.
    Remember those screaming for us to be like Australia? Well thankfully Ardern, Bloomfield and her team said, we will make our own destiny.

    • It’s rare for me to disagree with you, Bert. But in this instance, with juDarth plotting with her cohorts who are already practiced in the art of unleashing Covid-carriers, the only questions that I can see are “where” and “when” they’ll try it on.

      However, the people of Aotearoa are also waking up to the plots and schemes of the merchants of greed, and next time they will see it for what it is.

      • I suppose I live for the now Kheala. And right now New Zealand is the envy of the world in it’s management of Covid
        Remember National screaming from the rooftops to be like Australia. Hosking saying Australia showing real leadership?
        Despite what Collins may throw at us and it could well be covid carriers into the community( god knows plenty are trying), I feel blessed as over the weekend I visited Armegeddon with my daughter , then on my daily walk in Hamilton today, wondered at the marvel that our community could wander about freely with or without masks( no legal requirement).
        So I say screw the nasty rightwing supporters, you can have your open the borders at all cost, we are safe and we are contributing. My plea for the government is to look hard into alternative employment when the crunch comes post the wage supplement. And to those bagging this, covid is happening worldwide and businesses are closing worldwide, are you blaming worldwide governments?

    • Well, had anybody told you about Covid 19 hitting NZ about 6 or 7 months ago, you would have accused the person of being a conspiracy theory adherent, I am sure. Wait and see what may unfold.

  21. If this is sustained in the CB poll it will mean the CCP has decamped fully from National. This will have significant implications for NZ’s political scene and not in a good way.

  22. Collins and Brownstain will be desperately grasping for anything even remotely positive in this “rogue” poll. That comes in the form of Collins own personal rating being 14.6% up 11.5% on the previous poll. Obviously perspective is really important on that score.

    Even when National was polling over 40%, then leader Simon Bridges was still polling around 5% in the preferred PM stakes. What does that confirm? That even the bulk of the 40% that supported National didn’t even support Bridges being PM.

    National are now at 25% and Collins is at 14.6%. All this confirms is that more of National’s true blue supporters approve of Collins than approved of Bridges. If that is “good news” then they are welcome to it. Adding further weight to my logic here is that Labour are at 60.9% but Ardern herself is at a staggering 62%.

    The other aspect of note was that in the previous poll, Collins was not even the National Party leader so her increase to 14.6% needs to be put into perspective.

    Time for Brownstain’s “investigation unit” to deliver some grubby allegations this week. No point in that being against a lower ranked MP or minister. They will go for the jugular after frantically digging like a dog with rabies looking for a buried and lost bone. It won’t be dirty politics of course. Haha

    Who will be their target?

    1) Ardern herself.
    2) Robertson.
    3) Woods.

    Watch this space. You know it’s coming.

  23. National saying they will charge people to come back to their home (NZ) does not help. They(national) have no right to deny any kiwis the right to come home or make it extremely difficult for them. We don’t all have lots of money in our back pocket. At least they could have been a little bit more subtle and said, we as a country need to look at reducing quarantine options, not just say pay up, when they know full well many aren’t in a position to do so. Also how can they say they have an experienced team when they have just lost so much experience. Why didn’t Judeath make Nicky Kaye her deputy. I think it was a big mistake to let Nicky Kaye go.

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