So we are now 10 weeks until the 2020 NZ Election due on September 19th. The pandemic has generated an unforeseen unprecedented universal event that has generated a solidarity and a genuine gratitude of Jacinda’s leadership which is translating into political loyalty. More National Party voters will vote National as their electorate vote and Party vote Labour than ever before in NZ political history. Here’s the landscape 10 weeks out.
• August 6: The House will rise
• August 12: Parliament will be dissolved
• September 2: Overseas voting starts
• September 7: Advance voting starts
• September 18: Advance voting ends and all election and referendum advertising must cease the night before election day with signs taken down by midnight.
• September 19: Voting places will open from 9am until 7pm that night when election results will be released progressively.
• October 2: Preliminary results for referendum votes on cannabis and end of life choice will be released.
• October 9: Official results including special votes for the 2020 General Election and referendums declared.
Everything is now going Labour’s way. Jacinda’s incredible leadership and the unique political solidarity it has created has been followed by Winston’s illness and National’s latest dirty politics implosion. Labour are in line for the highest win of their entire political history and are set to gain 50%+ meaning they will win an out right majority. Herdism (NZ voters who just want to back the winner) alongside the new enrolment rules that allow enrolment on the day plus booths in malls and supermarkets can only help.
An outright majority brings with it risks. To date Jacinda has been able to blame a lack of transformative change on Winston being the hand break, but if Labour win an outright majority, Jacinda & Grant will be forced to deliver like never before.
Domestically we haven’t seen transformation in child poverty, the housing crisis, inequality or a cleansing of the toxic cultures inside Oranga Tamariki, WINZ or the prison system.
That said, after terrorism, volcanism and a pandemic, Jacinda has earned a second term and only the most spiteful and tribal would disagree. She is a political phenomenon with unparalleled emotional intelligence. She is on her way to a 4 term legacy before leaving for the UN.
How the zombie Christ has Muller, Hooton and Co managed to fuck this up so badly? I’ve seen nuclear meltdowns with less radioactivity than these clowns have managed.
There are 5 questions right now…
1: Hooton self mutilated his career as a commentator for this?
2: How smug must Simon Bridges be feeling right now?
3: Will Muller sack Woodhouse?
4: Will Muller sack Muller?
5: Can National get over 30% in the election?
…the only way National claw themselves back now is if John Campbell breaks a story showing the Labour Government bio-engineered the Covid-19 virus themselves with a photo of Jacinda in a lab coat and Grant passing her the test tube.
Muller can only succeed is if the virus gets lose inside NZ so National wins if NZ loses meaning National are a festering party of ghouls watching in hope for mass casualties. I think more National voters will party vote Labour than ever before.
With Winston ill, NZ First has to rely on Shane Jones to win Northland, but with Labour on their way to 50%+, no one cares. Winston can’t be the Kingmaker if the Queen crowns herself and there would be no more glorious political karma than NZ First returning to Parliament and not being needed.
The math part of the argument is simple. The Greens have gone backwards in every election for the last 9 years and they always over poll before the election. Todays 6% can easily by under 5% on election day. I’ve also added that the international vote that always saves the Greens won’t go to them this year because Jacinda is such an internationally celebrated phenomena.
The why the Greens have slumped however is a tad more controversial than the math.
I’ve argued that the Greens reliance on twitter praise has driven them to virtue signal their woke middle class identity politics so much so they have actually alienated voters rather than attract them.
The Greens have abandoned real environmental progress against climate change (promising to maybe do something in 30 years IS NOT A SOLUTION) and they’ve dumped a broad-church social justice platform in favour of pure temple mantras that manage to include via exclusion.
Remember Green attempts to use the terror atrocity in Christchurch to push their argument all white people were culpable for that violence because of micro aggressions and casual racism…
Speeches calling out racism, colonialism and white supremacy at an Auckland vigil for victims of the Christchurch mosque attacks had some attendees leaving early, saying it was “too soon” for such discussions.
…when your woke activists starting point is that all men are rapists, all white people are racist and anyone supporting free speech is an actual goose stepping Nazi, there’s not a lot of wriggle room.
As social media has become totally ubiquitous within all our lives, those easily identifiable woke green activists screaming abuse at you in your social media feed for the latest outrage doesn’t ‘wake’ you up, it simply creates alienation.
This is why the Greens have barely managed to poll over their disastrous 2017 result and with Jacinda over shining everything they say and do, the Greens have become those people you actively avoid rather than engage with.
I say all this as someone who has voted Green my entire adult life.
Green Woke Activists think they can win the election if they simply cancel all the voters who don’t agree 100% with everything they have to say.
I’m not sure that’s a winning strategy.
While the Greens step towards a wealth tax and TDBs solar panels on every state house idea has made it more likely they will cross the threshold, the simple truth of the new reality we find ourselves in is will it matter?
Bryce Edwards says Labour’s fortunes rest with the Greens.
However I would argue that the new reality has set in motion a change in the psychology of the electorate, that voters new found solidarity and gratitude towards Jacinda could combine to create an unseen before wave of support for Labour that will be able to win them an unprecedented MMP majority.
With Winston unable to campaign for health reasons and the National Party Boag Dirty Politics meltdown, Labour have never had it so good.
The question on September 20th won’t be can the Greens get over 5%, the question will be who cares once Labour’s 50%+ landslide occurs.
When you twerk with the Devil in the pale moonlight, the Devil doesn’t change, you do. ACT’s flirtation with the gun fascists has ended with them taking his Party hostage the way Trump did with the Republican Party. The NZ NRA want to repeal the gun laws and are anti-1080 conspiracy fetishists. ACT have walked away from any ideological pretension that they are free market purists by going redneck on law and order with an appalling policy that would see the already outrageous proceeds of crimes act remove any safeguards and allow Police to seize private property. Who woulda thunk David Seymour would support State stormtroopers taking private property with no checks or balances other than the balance of probabilities?
ACT are now held hostage to a far more dangerous ideology than Milton Friedman, the NZ NRA makes Ayn Rand rational. At some stage a rescue mission will need to be conducted to save David Seymour from his faustian bargain.
He’s cashed his credibility in for 3 magic beans just at the time when ACT is gaining momentum. The woke’s inane super power of handing David free speech ammunition and making him politically relevant again is soul destroying and with National in freefall, ACT could expect 4-5% from disgruntled National voters.
David is the de facto Leader of the Opposition.
The Māori Party have a real chance in Te Tai Hauāuru and Tamaki Makaurau and with a small nudge up in their Party vote could end up with 2 electorate MPs plus a list MP. The Māori Party could become an election night surprise.
Going no where fast. Only chance is Geoff Simmons winning Rongotai which is as likely as Todd Muller being named New Zealand’s sexiest politician.
FRINGE POLITICAL PARTIES:
New Conservative Party: Strip away any rationality, compassion and gentle sensibilities within Christianity and you have the New Conservative Party. Hateful of abortion, solo mothers, gays, solo mothers, cannabis and solo mothers, the New Conservatives love guns, patriarchy and more guns. Paranoid and frightened of any idea post the renaissance, the New Conservatives would represent a great leap backwards for New Zealand. It’s political thinking is so inbred, I suspect they would want to relax laws around cousins marrying. Banjo playing with your toes and burning books is mandatory to be a candidate. I suspect Solo mums are not allowed to vote for the Party.
Vision NZ: Hates all the same things as the New Conservatives but hates Muslims most. Brian Tamaki claimed yesterday at his central Auckland protest that Labour will make NZ a ‘Socialist country’ and I’ve NEVER been so excited & happy in my life. Reading through their policy, you suspect they consider eclipses to be inspired by Satan and believe Jacinda is the daughter of the Devil’s third cousin. I think Libraries and clitorises would be banned if Vision NZ came to power.
One Party: Now, you would have thought Vision NZ and the New Conservatives had covered off the entire spectrum of right wing crazy Christian, but lo and behold, there’s another schism and it’s the ‘ONE Party’. They talk ALOT about ‘The Kingdom’ which is bizarre for a democracy. Under ONE Party, I think Jesus becomes the Constitutional Head of State and God has to personally sign off on legislation. The NZDF would be given spirit spears to fight Satan with and anyone caught working on Sunday is put to death. I think under The One Party, Gay Conversion treatment is mandatory for anyone who watches Glee. I think electricity and any singing that isn’t praising Jesus is also banned.
Advance NZ: Desperate for political relevance, Jami Lee Ross, the former Machiavellian Svengali of the National Party, has started his own Party for the advancement of Jami Lee Ross. Under Advance NZ, Jami Lees Ross advances his own interests and anyone who wants to donate vast sums of money to the right while being recorded for it. Advance NZ wants freedom, sovereignty and independence for Jami Lee Ross. Think of it as a really expensive public rebranding exercise so JLR can get a job in Banking somewhere.
The Integrity Party: Revolves around the leader who left the Sustainability Party. Wants to be the kingmaker of politics with lots of middle of the road opinions. It’s that ugly blue green colour you have when environmentalism gets hit by capitalism. Has the kind of Māori buzz words you get when Wellington Bureaucrats are opening a sustainable pet crematorium.
Tea Party: Fresh from his tilt at the Auckland mayoralty, John Hong, NZs most active cheerleader for China, has formed his own Party and is aiming at the enormous Chinese diaspora in NZ to propel him into Parliament. For all the tea in China, I’m not sure the Tea Party has read the tea leaves here. If the Tea Party syphons off votes from National and they don’t reach the 5% threshold, Hong damages National and wastes all that vote. It’s a win win for the Left, so I for one say, ‘Keep going Mr Hong’.
NZ Public Party: I love this Party, sure the Chinese puppet party is funny, various religious right wing nutters are entertaining and the vanity projects are a great self deluded laugh, but for pure insanity, the NZPP can not be surpassed. Their policy platform are a bunch of QaNON conspiracies all rolled into one vast narrative. The Covid-19 virus is a bioengineered weapon spread by 5G technology that is aimed to bring about a shadowy one world Government inside the UN. I can’t satirise this, because it seems to be what they actually believe. The existence of the NZPP is an indictment on our public education system.
With the enrolment rule changes and booths in supermarkets and malls, I think we will see a large turnout.
I think overseas votes will go overwhelmingly to Labour and not the Greens.
I think with the huge number of fringe parties we will see more wasted vote than ever before.
I think Labour will be 50%+.
I think National will be lucky if they hold onto 30%.
The Greens & NZ First won’t be politically relevant.
ACT will benefit most from National’s meltdown.
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