It’s April Fools Day 2020, but this time around it seems like we are all the fools and there’s no laughing.
A pandemic exacerbated by cheek to jowl overpopulation & habitat destruction thanks to climate change doesn’t seem like the great joke it used to be.
I don’t care what your politics are, but after leading with such grace through a terrorist attack, volcanic eruption & a pandemic WHILE being a new parent – it would be the most petty partisan with all the depth of a puddle to not agree Jacinda Ardern has earned a second term.
Which is why it would be so perverse if she lost the 2020 election, and I fear that is a very real possibility.
As a class leftist, there is much to be disappointed to date with this Government. The lack of real transformative progress on welfare reform, taxation reform, climate change reform, public services and infrastructure upgrades all frustrate the hell out of me, but when this country has been hurt, her leadership has calmed a frightened and hurt nation like no other could.
I believe Jacinda will continue to dazzle with her leadership during this crisis, and Labour will have the highest Party vote on election night, but she will totally and without blemish, overshadow NZ First and the Greens so much so, that their only survival back into Parliament would be by gifting each Party an Electorate seat.
Northland for NZ First, Central Auckland for the Greens.
Jacinda’s leadership is sucking the very oxygen out of Winston Peters and James Shaw. I won’t even include Marama Davidson in that sentence because for all intents and purposes she has become totally invisible to the electorate.
Simon Bridges only hope is that the virus leaks into NZ and he can trace it back to a perceived incompetence that he can claim was a lack of leadership. He’s got nothing else, and all National’s punitive social policy shit and bonfire of red tape regulation will just look petty in the face of what we are collectively facing and the peoples demand to be protected by the State will make his small Government mantra look ridiculous.
Simon is stuck with being the spoiler hoping that Jacinda’s dazzling star performance eclipses oxygen to NZ First and Greens so they both slip beneath 5%.
National may not get the highest Party vote on election night, but if NZF & Greens don’t make it, National + ACT could still become the Government.
In that scenario the Māori Party winning a Māori electorate and bringing in 1 MP off the Party list could be Labour’s only lifeline back into Government.
Losing because of MMP machinations after providing such incredible leadership through National tragedies would be a tragedy in of itself.
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Well what a ray of sunshine this little piece presents today!
My view does not involve sunshine. There are five and a bit months till the scheduled September General Election. Various scenarios are possible in that time–from a change in date, to suspension of the election, to social uprising and chaos of various types, ending in limited martial law.
The shit is about to hit the fan in the next two weeks from what I am hearing. Low union density means there are thousands of workers who have just been “let go”, or contractors and self employed whose work stream has stopped dead, and cannot yet get assistance from MSD/WINZ due to systemic problems–turning around a sadisitic punishment machine to being a genuine welfare outfit is beyond them in the time frame.
A direct credited UBI payment based on having an IRD number, food packages dropped off, fare free transport and free Wifi are urgently needed for the next several months at least.
As for the election–if it does take place–Green and NZ First will have to be included due to the perpetual 40% support for Nashnull. I like to think some would change to Labour after Jacinda’s great work–but…when that black pen hovers over the form in the cardboard voting booth, hands start to shake and intentions waver.
But wait…….this will ensure Jacinda gets four terms.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/120725850/coronavirus-govt-wont-rule-out-a-ministry-of-works-for-postvirus-nz
Tiger M
I think you are right with your little line up of things to go with UBI – set it for an indeterminate time to be reviewed in six months for effectiveness and enhancement, though not to be wiped then or in the future without a referendum.
The present shower would probably say they couldn’t possibly do any such thing as it would require a day’s worth of all the telecommunications links so that a giant meeting could be held, or something. Th:dt – too hard, didn’t try would be the message. The message i get from reading and hearing, is that there are lots of meetings that cost a lot in money and time, and not much comes out of the sausage machine.
So let’s get on and do the necessary; Shit-faced weasels who want to put a spoke in the wheel can get a burst of the Rogernomics – ‘keep moving too fast for the oppo to regroup and do a defensive attack’. We learned to osur sorrow how effective that procedure was in NZ, so let’s turn to the Dark Side for an effective ploy for the play.
Yes, give ‘em a taste of ‘TINA’…
we just cant let that happen as voters but labour need to be strategising this right now and looking at all pathways back into power even if that means gifting seats to NZF and Greens. God help us if that little turd soimon gets in and Bennett is just vile as a deputy PM. just thinking about that scenario gives me reflux.
Incredible leadership isn’t enough by itself though, is it? More important is to also have incredible achievements. She is awesome at this ’empathy in a crisis’ stuff. Is that enough, or will voters be back to judging on the basis of actions and competence of the Govt by the time of the election?
Chruchill being dumped at the end of WWII seems a comparable example
You are right. Ardern is great at reacting to a crisis and reading off a teleprompter. But when it comes to delivering off her and her governments own backs, she’s an utter failure. Let’s face it, if we didnt have Christchurch, White Island or this pandemic, she wouldn’t deserve re-election.
I’m reminded of the Life of Brian segment, “what’d the Romans ever do for us”…
What’d Jacinda ever do for us. Except , oh yes, that, and that, and that, and that, and that, and that, and that, and…
Yes, refunding various NGOs, taking on loan sharks and wheel clampers, a better deal for renters, school lunches–‘feed the kids’, investigation of petrol pricing, biggest rises for Nurses and Teachers in a decade, equal pay for Carers, etc. etc. don’t perhaps fire up online commenters–but are among literally hundreds of reforms and legislation changes (from tiny to significant) since 2017.
Incredible leadership by definition should deliver results. If the Ardern led govt delivers limited results, not only on the covid 19 front, but many other areas of governance then Ardern’s leadership can hardly be deemed incredible – maybe good or middling at best. Just as John Key did bugger all other than smile, wave, make his supporters have warm fuzzies and pump the economy through immigration, tourism and house inflation I am yet to see a real difference from Ms Ardern other than her giving a different bunch of rose-tinted-glasses-wearing supporters warm fuzzies.
Bomber,
It is a well established ‘fact’ that the biggest influencer on election day, is the voters pocket.
Cynical you might say?
I think not.
Getting to the point of your post; Why Jacinda might lose the next election – I spite of being on the crest of the wave at the moment.
Lockdown is important but LOCKOUT of work and crashing the economy, is not a good idea.
If Jacinda does not lift some of these sanctions, she is done and dusted come election time when good previously employed people are on the pseudo dole; lost self respect and losing their business or house or spouse.
As I’ve blogged recently- my focus has been on the economic damage- being greater than the medical fallout.
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2020/03/31/guest-blog-ross-meurant-blowback/
and
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2020/03/28/guest-blog-ross-meurant-police-breach-protocols/
and
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2020/03/27/guest-blog-ross-meurant-what-is-money-where-does-it-come-from-do-crises-produce-solutions/
Absolutely. The economic damage the COL are inflicting on the country will dwarf the effects of the virus. If we are now pursuing an elimination strategy why oh fucking why didn’t we close the borders to all except nationals a month ago and adopt strict quarantine for anybody coming in? Test, and track and trace and we’d have been sitting pretty. But no Cindy wanted her big memorial and so cruise ships were still plying our waters and visiting ports in mid March. Now we’ve got a thirty day free trial of a marxist police state just with way better food, supermarkets and accommodation… and it sucks arse big time!
Oh well yknow nows a great time for the tinfoil wearing mike Hoskings worshiping neoliberal apologist online conspiracy theorists community raving about police states taking over everything. Would you rather a bunch of no bodies online check if people are in self isolation or enforcing restrictions instead of police?
Hi Ross,
You are right, there are quite a few who would dump the Labour Party in a huge stinking pile of shit.
But that depends on how good we can access the Dole.
I remember how the Dole was originally described to me, “it was a passive means of stopping an uprising”. The uprising they were referring too, was Roman. The Romans had a huge amount of ex soldiers who had gambled and whored their citizen rights away. And then had no influence over the Senate.
It is also where the term “bread and circuses” comes from.
I hope you are wrong Ross, because this is a government that suddenly needs to produce its own bread and circuses. Because lets be honest, the current status quo just doesn’t quite work out, well, at least not for the proletariat.
I think that a lot of the Proletariat will be OK with the shut down as long as us knuckleheads are talked to honestly, respectfully, and without reservation.b
So if Grant and Jacinda want to keep our votes? Throw us a bone, make it easier to get on the Dole. Because the paperwork is a fucking living nightmare, and the staff who “help” us are like the living embodiment of Cthulhu cultists.
And give us a promise that carry on to the next election, because i so desperately want to believe…
“Because the paperwork is a fucking living nightmare, and the staff who “help” us are like the living embodiment of Cthulhu cultists.”
That’s not very nice!
Cthulhu cultists at least still bear a resemblance to decent human beings, and shouldn’t be lumped in with the many at WINZ.
I must say though, I was dropping some papers in to the Upper Hutt office a while back for an elderly gent, and the lady at the front counter must have been one of the most professional, caring, decent and effective people this country has ever seen. If she hasn’t been fired already for being a decent person who does an excellent job, she probably soon will be! She dealt with his issue (even though he wasn’t there) quickly and properly, with no fuss or pain. A truly rare decent person in a place that makes Catholic visions of hell look like a nice summer holiday!
Agh! the old, keep the economy going at the expense of dead people line, spoken like a true Trumpean.
“Agh! the old, keep the economy going at the expense of dead people line, spoken like a true Trumpean.”
Tell me.. Had our borders been closed earlier, and/or had a proper quarantine been set up for arrivals, and/or proper tracing and isolation (with teeth, not ‘please stay home if you wouldn’t mind” but “stay the fuck at home or we’ll make you sorry you were every born!”) – how many would die?
How many will die this winter not from Covid but from a lack of heat, or good food?
How many will die by their own hand this year because of lost jobs or fear for the future?
Given the real-world numbers we see overseas that make a joke of the modelling (that was claiming “90,000 dead” at one stage but now, strangely, has dropped by over 2/3rds to a mere 27,000″), are you really sure that the current measures are actually going to be better than had the virus been allowed to run through the community?
Most people I know are in high-risk groups. I moved out of my home to give me some freedom of movement due to the risk of harm if I passed it on at home. I stand to lose a lot of this gets as bad as the fearmongers make out.
But.. The numbers from Italy and Spain and the US and China make a mockery of the “worst case scenario” fearmonger models.
It’s bad, but is it as bad as what we’re doing today? Will our world be better because of the lockdown, or so much worse than even the wettest dreams of the most fearful of the fearmongers?
Well sunshine I aint Nostradamus but given you look through hindsight let me tell you this, why the fuck are you comparing the known with the unknown? Tell me what the outcome is if we completely ignore this? Remember the dinosaur never saw the meteorite coming?
To answer but one of your loaded questions, no one shout die through lack of heating or food.
Well aren’t you just the absolute model of a mature debater! It does call into question your claim of being in the health sector. But if you’re venting after a hard day, I take my words back – I do understand some people just grind you down especially when you’re dealing with customers. Even when you work where I have, as soon as someone becomes a “customer” they become an annoying whiny self-obsessed.. Better stop there, even TDB has language standards.
But to answer your question with one line. I am comparing known with known.
Our own PM or health watsis (Mr Bloomfield), can’t recall which, said today that the reason the death rate in Italy seems so high is it’s likely they’ve missed a lot of cases, ie many more are infected than is reported.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ shows that Italy still has less deaths attributed to Covid-19 than it does to influenza in any normal year (you’ll have to dig the influenza stats out yourself, but it averaged around 17,000/yr for 2013-2017 if I recall the numbers/years correctly). These are also known figures. What I don’t know is how many deaths are going to be attributed to Influenza in Italy this year, will have to wait and see, but it may be unusually low.
As to your other post, I see no reason why someone needs to be either a fear monger or dead. As you can see I am neither, I am quite alive right now and I am also quite positive about things and encouraging people not to panic and to look to getting out of this in future.
But, “to die is to be with Christ”, so if I die it is a good thing. Alive or dead, my future is quite rosy actually. At least so long as our government doesn’t go deeper into a totalitarian state and make 1984 look like optimistic advertising copy for a holiday park. They’ve got the keeping the populace in fear of a non-existant enemy down pat, and also the daily public announcements of capacity and units processed and so on.
PS Until Jacinda I was a labour supporter all my life. Even cheered when she was voted in. I have serious doubts English would’ve made anything better, and am certain there was a lot more to Key’s sudden departure (a week after promising he’d do a full 4th term if elected) than we’re told. I’m certain that under Nats we’d be a hell of a lot worse off as a nation by now. But I don’t think I can ever vote for Labour again, and am in a bit of a quandry as the greens are even more dangerous, and NZ 1st is not trustworthy.
A fear monger or dead, what’s your choice?
Jacinda has not so much failed as Winston and Shane have watered down stuff to such an extent, instead of a heady 9% craft beer, we are in effect getting a 2% beer.
Martyn, you say the “pandemic (has been) exacerbated by cheek to jowl overpopulation & habitat destruction thanks to climate change” – but I have to disagree with overpopulation and habitat destruction being caused by climate change. Overpopulation and habitat destruction for capitalist growth, and also farming and urbanisation related land use have led to species loss, ecosystem instability and climate change, not the other way round. And largely, by the way we treat wild and farmed animals.
I’d hate for NZF to be given an electorate seat given their veto of progressive Labour/Green policies.
I also agree with others in the comments here, that Jacinda may well be judged positively for her work in crisis, but that needs to offset the lack of progress everywhere else, including on Labour’s own key policies.
It’s going to be very difficult for kiwi families to live because expenses are rising faster than wages are rising. For the average single income earning family they’re underwater instantaneously which forces them onto credit.
For the 2 average earning income family they’ve got a thin margin until kids education and medical pushes them under credit requirements and they’re drowning.
Now it’s against the law for non essential workers to be working so businesses are drowning.
We’ve gone from very low unemployment to record high unemployment. So right now we’ve gone from about 4% to 10% unemployment and that number is bound to grow so credit and insurance companies are not going to get payed.
The Reserve Bank has gone for unlimited spending power so they’re buying ETF’s.
We’ve already gone for 13 billion for government spending according to my simple math on top of the reserve banks spending so the Reserve Bank is no longer the lender of last resort they’re the counter-party-of-last-resort and buyer of risky assets.
Best best case scenario is we don’t have market economics anymore. It’s over for market economics. All we have now on is The Reserve Bank.
Bomber
You are on the mark. Jacinda is toast come election day – irrespective of her courageous Lock Down decision.
Why? Because most voters vote according to their pocket. By election time, at the rate of economic melt down caused by locked out. Voters who were works with self respect but finding themselves pseudo dole recipients! Small business owners out the back door and probably lost the spouse as well.
Jacinda needs to revisit the paradigm. Its not for nothing that Winston is not longer visible. He knows disgruntled labour voters (conservatives – workers – what Labour truly once was) will flow to NZFirst.
” He knows disgruntled labour voters (conservatives – workers – what Labour truly once was) will flow to NZFirst.”
Back in the first election under MMP Winnie proclaimed “a vote for me is a vote against National” if I recall rightly (I know others with the same memory).
Then he betrayed his betrothed by jumping into bed with Bolger (or whoever was the Nat leader at the time).
Two words. Never again. Though I thankfully didn’t vote for him then, I’d not trust him now. Not unless he gives me one hell of a good reason to!
Pretty simple solution, change the 5% threshold.
I believe 5% was NOT the recommended level, so making it 3% (2% would be infinitely fairer IMHO) would solve the problem and make most of these discussions about will X, Y or Z get in because they’re hovering around the 5% mark.
5% is also way too high, given the extremely right wing (prostitute propaganda; re: Presstitutes) media here in NZ.
Can someone tell me why this isn’t the easiest and most practical decision.
n.b. Even if NZF and Greens get a free run in a seat, it DOESN”T mean they’ll actually win that electorate.
Now at this time, during this pandemic, the calibre of our nation’s leadership will be tested, possibly more so than at any other time in this nation’s history.
“…the most important lesson from 1918 is to tell the truth. Though that idea is incorporated into every preparedness plan I know of, its actual implementation will depend on the character and leadership of the people in charge when a crisis erupts.”
John M. Barry
SMITHSONIAN MAGAZINE
NOVEMBER 2017
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/
P.S. (A must read. Note the date.)
Coronavirus: Dr Lance O’Sullivan says lockdown in Kaitaia ‘a joke’ and wants to shut down the dairies.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120746934/coronavirus-dr-lance-osullivan-says-lockdown-in-kaitaia-a-joke
It seems like he’s got personal issues with the dairy owners.
He is the same guy who told Mike Hosking while the disease is serious and deadly, the scale of the outbreak has been blown out of proportion.
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/doctor-lance-osullivan-international-response-to-coronavirus-bordering-on-hysteria/
Why should we listen to people like him? Seems like he is there just filling the ‘brown quota’ for a media ‘health expert’ mouthpiece, with zero objective sense of reality.
We are here in this situation because of these so-called ‘experts’ like Sullivan and Tedros Ghebreyesus.
https://twitter.com/who/status/1217043229427761152?lang=en
Has JA done enough to win the election? Not according to many comments here. Yes, she has leadership skills in spades but what else?
Probably – hopefully – just enough to get her back as PM. But give her another three years then judge her. I think that will be the time. She hasn’t been helped much by some of the team she’s had to work with but there is some real potential among a few MP’s not yet in her cabinet who could do a far better job than some of her present line-up.
NZ over-generously gave John Key three terms – not just one – and he still did bugger-all for anyone but the top 10%.
Bridges and Goldsmith have a long way to go to catch up with Adern and Robertson, who have developed into a very astute and complementary duo.
Give this government – ideally only Labour and Greens (the latter by doing the deal on Akld Central, with Swarbrick) – another three years and then make your judgement.
This could have been a big opportunity to shine for the green, to lead the way in radical thinking and designing a new society for building a better future. But with James Shaw at the helm and all the blue-green crowd, its only tinkering not to disturb business as usual.
Yes Jacinda is doing a tremendous job and in that can overshadow her coalition partners, but they truly have done nothing to help themselves and try to shine. Inside the party, the real Greens have been pushed to the side at the time when they should have been at the fore, this is a strategic blunder that might cost Jacinda a seond term and cost dearly on all middle and lower class New Zealand if they have to suffer through yet another National government.
BS galore continues on TDB, and Herr Zensor sits at the helm.
Was your BS censored Marc?
Jacinda has already LOST, wait and see over coming months.
Such a lot of bull-shit I must say”..As a nation of people we all need to get fkn real..China owns this Fkn Covid 19 virus and not anyone else so lets all pass it back to the Chinese Nation..Fuk them I say’ AND OUR GOD WILL NOT SAVE THEM SORRY TO SAY “AMEN and AMEN”
Ken Christo”77@GMAIL.COM
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