POLL MELTDOWN – NATIONAL CRASH TO 28%
A new poll suggesting a sharp collapse in support for the New Zealand National Party is intensifying pressure on leader Christopher Luxon as speculation grows about internal dissatisfaction and possible leadership instability. If the party slips further into the 20s, the wider implications for coalition politics ahead of Election 2026 could be significant.
Poll Signals Serious Trouble for the National Party
As TDB noted last night thanks to our TDB Whistleblower Tipline, National’s own pollster is predicting a National Party massacre…
Bombshell poll: Luxon under pressure as National sinks towards 2020 disaster mark
The Taxpayers’ Union is set to release a poll tipped to show the National Party only a couple of points above its disastrous 2020 wipeout.
NZ Herald
Political Commentary Adds Pressure on Luxon
…Matthew Hooton told The Bradbury Group on Tuesday night that Luxon would cost National the election this year, even going so far as to claim Luxon proses a ‘National security risk’ because he is so feckless.
Where Disillusioned National Voters Could Go
Once National fracture into the 20s, National voters themselves will start looking for other options, some might go to CAT, some might go to NZF but blue/greens inside National will start seriously looking at TOP as a preference and if 2points walk from National to TOP, there is a real chance they could cross the 5% threshold and if that happens a Labour+Green+TOP Government is far less scary than Labour+Green+MP Government.
Leadership Speculation Inside National
The rumours are now circulating for a coup against Luxon.
FAQ
Why is polling in the 20s significant for the National Party?
Support in the 20 percent range would place the New Zealand National Party close to its historically poor result in the 2020 New Zealand general election, when the party suffered one of its worst defeats.
Why would a drop in National’s support benefit smaller parties?
When large parties lose support, some voters often shift to smaller parties that better match their views. In this scenario, analysts suggest the The Opportunities Party could attract voters seeking an alternative to both National and the Greens.
Could this change the coalition landscape?
Yes. If smaller parties gain enough support to enter Parliament, coalition combinations can change significantly. For example, a potential coalition involving Labour, the Greens, and TOP would differ politically from one involving Te Pāti Māori.
If TOP get a fair chance to argue their policies during the election they have a chance to reach 5%. They might even get some of TPM party vote from people who liked their actual policies last election but are now dismayed at the infighting, and the focus on Sovereignty, Genocide and Holucaust (even though much of the focus is generated by media who highlight and inflate their importance.)
Quite intrigued by TOP but never voted due to numbers. Compared to the shitshow of parties currently in government, it might be a viable alternative.
The polls are nothing but the devil’s deceit, planting seeds of uncertainty among the faithful! Christopher Luxon is the Lord’s chosen leader, a true warrior like David against the giants of godless progressivism! National will soar triumphantly from this fleeting storm, guided by divine providence. As it is written in Ephesians 6:12, for we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers. Luxon shall trample the serpents of socialism and rainbow agendas, ushering in electoral glory as the end times approach! National triumphs through the power of the Cross!
I’m no leftie but Zelda is unhinged. I apologise on behalf of all of us.
No need to apologise, there are those of us who view it as excellent content for the upcoming election.
“Think the Greens are kooky?”
“You’ll be fucking shocked at the level of delusion amongst the Chinese Christian community who vote for National and ACT”
I wonder how many Chinese Christians you know. Yes the Greens are kooky
Though shalt not lie Zelda.
Oh.