The Greens have gone backwards in terms of Party vote every election since 2011, (11.06% in 2011, 10.7% in 2014 and then 6.3% in 2017), they over poll every election so today’s 5% can easily equate to 4.9% on election day.
One of the interesting dynamics for the 2020 election will be the overseas vote.
Typically this always benefits the Greens and on one occasion it was the difference between them being under the 5% threshold and getting back into Parliament.
There were 61,524 overseas votes cast in the last election but since then, Jacinda has been a stellar hit on the International stage and you could easily see those votes swamping over to Labour because of Jacinda’s international star power.
This could be devastating for the Greens and they will need to sell their overseas campaigning as ‘A vote for the Greens will keep Jacinda in power’ because they can’t compete directly with Jacinda’s international fame.
The Greens focus on middle class Identity Politics however is deeply alienating to the wider electorate and has driven them to a lower polling result than their 2017 disaster.
Unfortunately the Greens can’t help themselves, and when you consider how their activist base online will descend into an orgy of consensual polyamorous virtue signalling as to what they would rule as Hate Speech, that super power the Greens have to alienate will be on maximum display.
The woke think they are inter-personal radicals when in fact they are emotional bureaucrats and that’s about as electorally popular as a cup of cold sick.
In short, there’s a really good chance the Greens will actively work to come under 5% this election.
Labour can’t win without the Greens. While they could be privately grateful that NZ First are drowning, they can’t be happy to see the Greens struggling.
Labour needs the Greens over the 5% threshold more than they need NZ First over the 5% threshold and to ensure the Greens are represented Labour must consider throwing Auckland Central to Chloe.
Chloe is the future leader of the Party, she is a pragmatic radical, she has enormous mana amongst Millennials and is a genuine agent for progressive change.
Auckland Central breaks down like this…
…give Helen White the high list ranking someone of her talent deserves so that she is in off the Party List and get Labour voters in Central Auckland to give Chloe Swarbrick the seat.
That way the left pick up an electorate, Helen White gets in off the List and Chloe ensures the Greens gain political representation.
Sensible strategy for the left but remember the greens are so virtuous they gave the Nats their questions at question time- one of the first red flags after the election- hard to see them taking the “low” road to possible victory.
The Greens dont do sensible.
+1 love it,
the greens are so virtuous they gave the Nats their questions at question time
In a media / economic system that is clearly failing the public, locally and globally, is it surprising that all political purveyors are looking unfit for purpose? No. In the current form, they all are failing! Which one is failing least? Hillary or Trump? Most regular folk have had enough of the orcastrated reality show called Dimocruptcy. What to do … Switch of the MSM and talk to one another, respectfully. Take back the commons, starting with TVNZ and RNZ.
Jacinda’s star power could hurt the Green’s vote, especially if the Greens are hovering at 5%.
She is nearly-Green in her values and functionally-equivalent to James Shaw, so why vote Green and not Labor, when you can vote for the more popular Jacinda.
Also, if the Greens are going to go below 5%, why waste your vote? Vote Labour and your vote counts and supports a nearly-Green PM.
policy NOT personality. Ada. Our weak as piss environment policies ( especially those on water purity) would be even worse off under a Labour government. The greens are pretty shit these days thanks to the Wellington twitterati but they need to be in parliament not out of parliament. Labour are useless on Energy policy , climate change and waste minamisation.Their spinelessness defines their overall performance.
Jacinda’s hand wringing over child poverty and choreographed hijab wearing sound bites cut no ice with me. The firearm reforms and the anti democratic process embraced by Jacinda in bringing them about proved she is nothing but a Balirite; aka a 21st century fascist neoliberal.
All that might or might not be true, but I’m talking about people voting in September.
that where the colition agreement would come in to play
Shona, I’m no fan of Ardern, and a 21st century Blairite neo-liberal she may well be. But a fascist she most certainly isn’t. I implore you not to throw that word around loosely – it’s best reserved for the genuine article. Ardern is an opportunist who uses authoritarian measures when she thinks doing so makes her look good. She’s a shameless self-promoter, not a totalitarian ideologue.
Good grief what are you talking about Ada.
In the last 24 or so hours we have had the conservative Damien O’Connor saying that most of our rivers are in good shape! No Greenie would either say that or ever think it!
I am not ‘tribal Green’ but I could never ever vote for Labour, just too many trolls not under but on their bridge…….
I’m talking about Jacinda and the general population who probably don’t think a lot about policies or politics until Election Day, but they do know who they like.
jacinda is essential to keeping natz out of power labor and green strategists should sit down and work exactly how to win the election i still think getting the youth vote up is essential and that’s where environmental policy can play a big part
Focusing on Chloe (or any of the Greens MP’s) would be a disaster.
What admiration she seems to emulate to certain people in face to face meetings is absent from what the majority really think of her, which is not really a lot because she has done next to nothing! Apart from alienate the boomers voters that Marama didn’t turn off with the anti white, bros speak.
I don’t want to bag the greens, but the MAIN reason to vote the greens is KEEP THE NATZ OUT and trying to curtail Labour going even more neoliberal, not because they have Chloe or the rest of them.
Hold your nose and vote for them and pray they do better next time, is probably what a lot of Greens voters will hopefully decide to do.
Chloe is one of the reasons that the Greens lost so many votes last election aka the disastrous Metro cover (judging by the voters reactions) and intense media attention. I don’t think it was her fault persay, but she’s a pawn in a dirty politics play.
AKA the highlighting of certain young Greens obsessed with self identity (sexuality, race) and lack of environmental focus. In the age of dirty politics, it is probably not a co incidence with the loss of voters for the Greens and the highlighting of MP’s that are a turn off.
Chloe not one of the worst politicians in parliament, but lets just pray for someone somewhere who gets into the Greens high on the list that has an environmental focus not identity one and a lot more practicality and clues than more water bottling – another heinous Green error!
I also think the greens are better to give Labour the seat in a deal, and encourage Auckland voters to give the greens the party vote. Otherwise, they will lose the Auckland seat to Natz again.
Chloe came a very last third in the Mayoral election and was the protest vote, now she’s the mainstream, won’t work again. She tanked the Greens voters last election.
You might like her for drugs reform, but seriously do we need the Natz back with throwing the Auckland seat away again.
It should be Auckland electoral vote for Labour, party vote for Green?????
Slogan,
Keep the Natz out!
Great prose, almost beat poetry*- “their activist base online will descend into an orgy of consensual polyamorous virtue signalling as to what they would rule as Hate Speech,”.
*In the 1940s and 50s, a new generation of poets rebelled against the conventions of mainstream American life and writing. They became known as the Beat Poets––a name that evokes weariness, down-and-outness, the beat under a piece of music, and beatific spirituality.
https://www.poetryfoundation.org/collections/147552/an-introduction-to-the-beat-poets
https://theculturetrip.com/north-america/usa/california/articles/the-beat-generation-in-5-essential-poems/
How COL wins the election.
Only citizens can vote
or to avoid the wind rush situation, permanent residents who have continuously lived in NZ for 20 years+ .
Agree to wipe out all NZ citizens loan interest from 1990… give the equivalent of fees in tax credits to those that paid their student loans back over those years when interest was accruing daily.
Take the money from the roads and put it into public transport.
Reduce immigration similar to their ideas when they won the election last time, but actually do it.
Decrease the work visas to only people who have a job paying over $100,000 to stop the rise in forced labour and people trafficking of $20p/h jobs. Funny enough, they won’t need to raise the minimum wages then, they will miraculously rise all by themselves as the decrease in people on jobseeker.
New tax on tourists and new visas coming into NZ to pay for new health, infrastructure, water management, conservation and pollution instead of more taxes to locals, we are already paying the increased council rates and petrol taxes . Zero exemptions. If you can afford to be a tourist or come to NZ you can afford to pay it.
Stop being hypercritical on Green Issues. Stop all polluters like
Rio Tinto
https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/southland/mataura-asks-govt-act
Dairy firm wants ocean wastewater outfall
https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/dairy/dairy-firm-wants-ocean-wastewater-outfall
Harbour of doubt: The tiny creek that drains Auckland of its waste
“St Lukes mall, one of the single biggest contributors of sewage into Meola, and likely among the biggest overflow points in the country.”
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/117958444/harbour-of-doubt-the-tiny-creek-that-drains-auckland-of-its-waste
Fine Fonterra for pollution, as well as the farmers to make them take their jobs seriously.
Have less tourists that are more targeted to stop the environmental degradation and infrastructure issues.
No plan to tackle environmental degradation by increased tourism – Commissioner
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/405767/no-plan-to-tackle-environmental-degradation-by-increased-tourism-commissioner
And rid the government of NZ Government Secretly Funded Water Bottling Companies
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1904/S00055/nz-government-secretly-funded-water-bottling-companies.htm
Reform power in NZ
Way to be cleared for big electricity players to prey on low-income households
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/102708888/way-to-be-cleared-for-big-electricity-players-to-prey-on-lowincome-households
NZ Power Companies are not even Compliant under EU and US Laws!
https://ecotricity.co.nz/nz-powercos-noncompliant-under-eu-us-rules/?utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=Non+Compliant+Blog+Release&utm_medium=paid&hsa_cam=6116002037136&hsa_src=%5BSITE_SOURCE_NAME%5D&hsa_acc=10152756314334928&hsa_ver=3&hsa_net=facebook&hsa_grp=6116002037536&hsa_ad=6116002037936&fbclid=IwAR0PwZmsmg8Q1b-aevcUijRowgavgNNT36_46yPRedul03imfWS6dSHLapc
Labour sadly CAN afford losing the Greens, if Jacinda swings in to make her middle of nowhere government appealing to soft Nat voters and swing voters, who are more interested in their little middle class privileges like property they own (again high in demand and value).
A dull and at times angry, incompetent and otherwise dented Soyman Bridges may not appeal as much as a well featured, neatly dressed, charm spreading, well spoken young Labour leader, so at least many women who may usually vote Nats, they may give her a second chance, putting Labour close to 48 to 50 percent of the vote.
Let TOP or Maori Party get in somehow, and they can be picked for a deal of more of the same, with lots of tweaks and little major upsets and changes to the system we have.
top have alot good ideas
You’ve been working savenz.
One things that stands out – Have less tourists that are more targeted to stop the environmental degradation and infrastructure issues.
Suggest a visa system for all the world and that will also mean that we lose our visa free situation. So what, our finance system is leaking with over-expenditure overseas anyway. We have reached peak tourism in NZ and i think have got past the marginal point for profitability. Treasury might like to work that out for us, and when it happened, as it must have happened already (include a suggested figure for costs to the state and citizens for search and rescue, untimely deaths of citizens and tourists etc).
Fine Fonterra for pollution, as well as the farmers to make them take their jobs seriously.
(Offer a no-interest loan to farmers to be paid in stages, for agreed work to reduce pollution, on presentation of invoices for work done, and to be paid to the accepted firms – not just any joebloggs giving it a go.) To farmers who have carried out the work, pay them to demonstrate to farmers with field days, and also give them tax relief for destocking over two years to sustainable levels – to encourage the others.)
Get a brace of go-ahead Councils who are prepared to work with Citizen Housing, and get two to three storey housing that looks like houses designed or use present ones and build in conjunction with Council to be run as no-profit housing, properly maintained, paid for by central government with Council as master landlord but run as a separate entity. They will be something more life the cliche Swiss two-storey, nice unimaginative, pleasant accommodation on land that the Council decides is suitable for services, close to public transport.
Look at these apartment houses, they are so attractive. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-k-7mEyPkR0
Meanwhile here is the answer to the cause of our housing woes. Not.
House prices are high because councils are not sufficiently funded enough to release the land needed for extra housing, an infrastructure group claims.
What’s this think tank Demographia? What sort of water have they got in their tank?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/118926496/council-funding-woes-perpetuating-the-housing-crisis-thinktank-says
are there other electorates where co op could knock the nat out as well
heres another idea merge the electorate teams for door knocking pamphlet delivery and hording erection natz have money to pay people greens labor should share re-sources where possible
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