The latest political poll spells real danger to the Labour-led Government. After ruling NZ First out as a possible coalition partner by National, NZF has slumped to 3%.
Now while no one can ever rule Winston Peters out, to be polling this low 6 months out from an election suggests that they are in real trouble and NZF have gone backwards over the last 6 years on election day.
If NZF don’t get re-elected, it’s almost certain that a National-ACT Government could win.
With the Green Party increasingly alienating itself with fringe debates, Jacinda has run out of mates with populist appeal despite Labour climbing in the polls since her election.
Who could rescue Jacinda in a tight election that goes right down to the wire?
Step up the Māori Party.
If the Māori Party can field a strong candidate in Tāmaki Makaurau, beat Labour and bring in one MP off the Party-list, the Māori Party could be all that saves NZ from a National-ACT Government.
Interesting days ahead.
First published on Waatea News.
This is exactly as I predicted here a few months ago.
Jacinda pretending not to be embroiled in the NZF funding criminality is losing her more votes every day. At this point NZF is a septic poultice attached to wound in the side of Labour. It is busy festering away and will eventually infect Labour by association.
Journalists are now emboldened to write headlines like this: “PM’s response to the Peters scandal is spineless”
So now you call on the Maori Party. The people previously spurned and denigrated by Maori in the Labour Party? Yeah right.
Right wing journalists Andrew.
Where is Hoskings,Tevett,Soper Heather Du PluseeAllan, Young,Hawkesbury? You know the ones that have ALL written opinions on this. Where are they now that it has come to light that National yes National were found to have TWO $100,000 hidden donations? Why is this not even in the Herald.
Why is Jacinda not all over Bridges on this.
Why is Bridges not standing down?
Cutting out the middleman has started in earnest.
Dirty politics at it’s best.
The difference as I see it is that the donors are under investigation in the National cases whereas it is NZ First itself that is under investigation.
Does that mean that National are innocent? I highly doubt it, but they were clearly smarter about how they dodged the laws and so have “clean” hands from a legal stand point.
So the Maori Party was denigrated by Labour? Can you provide any examples of said denigration Andrew?
There are several hitches in this latest cunning plan; Labour under Jacinda claims not to do electorate deals, and the MP has well disgraced itself with all those years with National, Hone Harawira did not leave the MP for no reason!
Really the Govt should have instigated the Welfare Working Group recommendations, promptly bought in Fair Pay Agreements, and tried to grow the voting pool of working class supporters rather than appease the middle class and neo rentiers etc.
Still could, Tiger, still could. But only if they ditch Winnie and announce their intention to finally become a REAL LABOUR GOVERNMENT! – relying on “the democratic public” the Labour Party was set up to serve.
Dear Chris,
Try Michael Moore’s Ep38 which addresses how the left should pitch itself to the electorate. US obviously but has some relevant application to NZ.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/rumble-with-michael-moore/id1490354763
Since the Maori party went to the Natz, and Alamein Kopu waka jumping, the only MP I’d trust not to betray to the Natz, is Hone Hawawira.
I guess that is why the entire establishment fought to get rid of him , using race, as someone who had the ability to unite a grass roots “non identity based’ social movement back to where NZ used to be pre, 1980’s and before identity was more important that actually achieving a bi cultural equal NZ which we would be a lot closer to now, had the right wing not had the master stroke of asset sell offs, third highest migration in the world per capita in NZ, and continuing offshore ‘investments’ (read neoliberal government OIA speak for foreign sales..)
Imagine how much richer and more in line with the treaty if there was leases only to foreign buyers and only citizens can vote and you could not become a citizen within 11 days of being here aka Peter Thiel or a permanent resident with the same rights and able to Ponzi more people in https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/376220/10k-11-days-and-one-failed-deportation?
The aged statistics say it all because the botched census can’t…
The number of Māori aged 65+ will more than double (from 48,500 to 109,400) between 2018 and 2034, as will the senior Pacific population (from 21,300 to 46,700), while the number of senior Asian New Zealanders will almost triple (from 59,500 to 171,900
Hang on, wasn’t the importing of more migrants supposed to solve the aging population???
Another lie from the neoliberals because it now looks like aged migration is one the biggest problems going forward!
Citizens should not be imported on mass to change the demographics in NZ within a decade to a vastly different balance of power and onto people who were not born here and do not have to contribute anything (but their glorious selves) to this country.
Alamein Kopu was a ‘sleeper’.
All sounds a bit desperate to me. Did not have to be in my opinion if Labour and co had kept their promises. Maybe a lesson here but somehow I doubt they will get the message.
The other think to think about, is why after god knows how many years NZ First was considered an anti immigration party and anti foreign powers party, and then low and behold they somehow change course in the last 3 years.
AKA pro low wage farm workers being bought in, cafe workers, labourers as well as charters to fly Chinese dual nationals back to NZ (along with their Aussie Chinese counter parts) to be quarantined here for the Coronavirus with the risks that is involved plus flying in Chinese nationals from Wuhan into NZ with just pamphlets after the rest of the world banned the flights from there as too risky …
Super weird!! So NZ First drop to 3% with their current soft immigration strategy which is a u turn to their previous stance and in the middle of massive immigration crisis and the highest migrant numbers coming to NZ ever seen while jobseeker up 11%!
it’s crazy!
Political suicide for Winston who is normally on top of public opinion on this and his voters concerns. Now ditching his old voters for a new obviously risky strategy of being Natz lite on immigration.
Just like the u turn from Labour… who inexplicably announce loosening criteria for 1000 aged migrant parents to come here and seemingly being ok with loosening arranged marriages to come here on top of that… with NZ First approval!
Meanwhile Greens being keen to loosen refugee status even further. Would not be so much of an issue if we did not have so many other crisis from the above third highest immigration rate per capita in the world in NZ.
Charity does not start at home in NZ!
The inexplicable thing, is that it is the opposite of the direction they were going in when they got into power and were going to take immigration down to 10,000 – 15,000 per year.
I think everyone can notice that firms with cheap labour are just as likely if not more to go under https://www.odt.co.nz/business/engineering-business-closure-comes-shock and then we have more unemployed people in NZ driving down wages and taking up housing needing transport, and using health and education, and making it harder for everyone else to use those services.
This is all so that private business can profit who seems to be failing and pushing their low and dysfunctional costs of labour onto everyone else!
That’s a really good point – We finally have a real immigration issue and suddenly the anti-immmigration party goes quiet.
As for the idea that Labour will be more leftwing without NZF, I think we’re kidding ourselves on that one. Labour is clearly a neo-liberal party but NZF bases it’s economics on the pre neo-liberal era. That’s why the establishment is much more opposed to NZF than Labour.
Same with RNZ, they used to have news stories that conveyed the routs going on with immigration , now for the last year they have been furiously advocating against COL and for more aged migrant visa, more migrant visa, and more arranged migrant marriage visas… it’s a complete right/woke turn.
Also interesting now that the Green Party should be getting 25% in line with the 14% they used to get, but just when it is a mainstream issue, they go quiet on the environment and of local identity (remember buy NZ which has new meaning now!!!!)
So in the middle of a planet crisis the NZ Greens reintroduce themselves as the rainbow identity party who hates everyone else and gives water bottling permits to the Chinese multinationals to be business friendly on the backs of some neoliberal advisors…
What’s next, the Maori party to rebrand as the multicultural party that advocates throwing out the treaty and auctioning off Tino rangatiratanga to the highest bidder after a free trip to China.
Here’s the kicker though, if you choose to vote for them they will not change, they will take it as mandate for business as usual.
If you want change you will have to vote them out.
The woke do not listen because they are always right, therefore they must be voted out.
Yes but I’d prefer self righteous clueless leaders and occasionally get something right, than psychotic ignorant ones in the Natz.
Plus don’t think the environment could stand another 9 years of Natz. We’d be like OZ with ScoMO and our country burning while he fist pumps coal in parliament.
National declined the southland monorail and the hollyford tunnel on environmental grounds. But Green minister Sage consented Chinese water bottling in chch.
Environmental conscience does not solely lie on the left of the political spectrum (if at all).
Who does the electoral boundary changes favour in the Tamaki electorate?
Tat Souths is ‘in’ now and a big chunk north of Takaanini has become the southern boarder now instead of been in the Waikato electorate.
A 1000 Labour Maori majority in Te Tai Hauauru. Is that enough to keep the Maori party out?
Just what we need too save a pretend Labour party the Maori party.
If that is the only option for the neo liberal left then lets get on with it.
The Maori party were complicit in all of the crimes committed by the Nasty Nats for nine years.
I wouldn’t trust them an inch and their record of being Keys plaything for nine years and did nothing too address the appalling situation that many poor Maori people find themselves in.
The smell of betrayal is nauseating.
They might have pull/influence over the maori caucus if they signed up a coalition agreement with Labour especially if NZF and the Gweens dont make it.
That’ll give them leverage.
The question is less about can they but rather would they?
Labour havent exactly been good to them over the years.
Yes but Natz in power for 9 years have not been very good for Maori either. Maori are the same as many other voters who have been failed by successive governments to protect local people and the natural environment in Aotearoa. Natz are great at giving little bribes at the table while stealing everything they can take in plain sight.
“If” NZF doesnt make it. Gweens arent there neither post election. They wont have a choice, or should I say, theyll be giving the Nat’s a chance to form a government.
Or, the Maori party have learned from NZF to leverage the fuck out of Labour because theyre pussies.
The question then is, how desperate are Labour to remain in office?
This 2+2 business isn’t equating to 4. There’s still about two and a half million voters that have to go into fewer parties than in 2017.
The question is less about can they but rather would they?
Labour havent exactly been good to them over the years.
Unlike the greens I think they will likely spark a bidding war for policy concessions if in the position to and good on them.
The greens are Labours door mat and everyone knows it.
Yes. Migrants age too. They are human like the rest of us.
But agree with you NZ immigration is a ponzi scheme set up to keep property prices growing and GDP growing. Never mind that GDP per capita is barely growing, productivity growth is flat lining and, as you outline, social issues are compounding.
So we are getting in the wrong migrants – and not attracting or retaining the right ones, aka leading cardio-electrophysiologist, Dr Alejandro Jimenez Restrepo left after 2.5 years in NZ http://werewolf.co.nz/2014/12/public-health-the-silent-crisis/ and until the government actually puts some time, effort and money into the local people as their main priority, and stops bringing in the world’s low waged workers and rich income less people who buy restaurants and farm land, while working out if you can’t retain NZ professionals here very well then you also can’t retain migrant professionals very well, NZ productivity will never increase.
The migrants who are top of their fields don’t last long because NZ has a clueless management culture that is all about processes and restructuring and often machinery doesn’t even work. See link above.
People management skills in NZ have come to mean, smiling assassain management types or clueless bureaucracy with people who have nothing real to achieve, and overseas executives that fit in the management culture here aka Joanne Harrison types https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/331250/whistleblowers-tell-of-incredible-day-their-jobs-were-axed, all while getting rid of people while giving themselves a pay rise or run the company into the ground aka Fonterra.
Sadly much of NZ business culture is that your workforce are little factory cogs to be replaced with another cheaper one when they get tired, or speak out or ask for a pay rise. The new trend is to get staff that preferably don’t understand English very well, know nothing of NZ culture, so they can’t read their employment contract conditions here or understand that $20p/h does not go far in NZ and actually that visa they paid a fortune for, is just a scam, because there are less and less jobs in NZ even at $20 p/h…
Therefore only the world’s desperate with skills no other country would dream of attracting into their welfare state are coming to NZ… our migrants skills are lower than 5 years ago because it’s a Ponzi that is destructive to society here, not attractive to it and in many cases had the migrant know the full truth of what they were paying for they would never have paid big $$$ for the visa in the first place.
Seriously thinking of starting up an “Undecided” party. At 17% WoooHooo!
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