Jacinda’s Political Faith Broader Than Any Church.

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AS ELECTION-YEAR GAME-PLANS go, it’s a good one. Why bother to reconstruct Labour as a “broad church” when the same effect can be achieved by creating a broad political “faith” out of three separate parties. Broad churches were mandated by the first-past-the-post electoral system; proportional representation allows a broad faith to have “many mansions” – and even more voters.

Jacinda Ardern was quick to see the possibilities. Many people marvelled at how well she and Winston Peters hit it off during the crucial days of negotiation following the 2017 election. One explanation had Peters intuiting that Labour’s new leader just might be willing to sing the same “Hallelujah Song” he’d been humming quietly since 1993. With the benefit of hindsight, however, it is equally plausible to argue that Jacinda saw in Peters and NZ First precisely the sort of social-conservative hand-brake she and her government needed to protect itself from Labour’s policy enthusiasts and the chronically “woke” Greens.

What emerged was an extraordinarily shrewd division of labour among the three parties making up the Government’s parliamentary majority. In the past, such a division had to be accomplished within a single political formation. For every warm and fuzzy Cabinet Minister offering peace, love and mung beans, there had to be a hard-faced conservative bastard preaching hellfire and brimstone. Preventing these clearly contradictory political tendencies from dividing the party membership into angry and antagonistic factions required a pretty brutal set of leadership skills and a determination to keep intra-party democracy on a very tight leash.

What Peters was offering Jacinda was a conservative faction positioned safely beyond the reach of her liberal and radical allies. The Labour and Green parties’ rank-and-file could come up with as many wild and woolly schemes as they liked: capital gains taxes; lowering the voting age to sixteen; a swingeing Carbon Tax; a radically down-sized dairy herd. But, while Winston and his team remained on watch, no such measures would ever make it through Cabinet. The same, of course, applied, in reverse, if ever NZ First’s hellfire and brimstone got too smelly.

Best of all, this broad, heavily moderated, progressive faith did not require a prime minister with the powers of a medieval pope. Jacinda’s regime had no need of subterranean torture chambers to ensure compliance. A gift for diplomacy and the ability to inspire her fellow human-beings was all the new prime minister required, and she had both of those qualities – in spades! Call it “The Incredible Lightness of Being Jacinda”.

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There is, naturally, a weakness in this new arrangement. And, oh, how Jacinda must have hoped and prayed that her potential political nemesis, Simon Bridges, didn’t spot it. That weakness arises out of NZ First’s capacity to form alliances with the party to its right as well as to its left. Press Peters and his people too hard, or, even worse, deny them their heart’s desire, and they’ll start packing-up their suitcases and ordering an Uber. Robbed of its conservative brake, Jacinda’s government would find itself required to say “No” all on its own. Dark clouds would soon overtake the Prime Minister’s sunny disposition. Recrimination and division would weaken Labour and the Green in ways that would be as hard to hide as they were to heal.

The first question Napoleon Bonaparte is said to have asked whenever a senior officer was recommended for promotion was: “Is he lucky?” Can it be doubted that Jacinda would have climbed very high in Napoleon’s Grand Armee? Has New Zealand ever had such a lucky prime minister? And has a new Zealand Leader of the Opposition ever provided his principal political rival with such a valuable gift?

By unequivocally ruling out NZ First as a possible coalition partner for National, Bridges has bolted Jacinda’s conservative handbrake firmly in place. Some might argue that this can only weaken his position. Surely, Bridges’ decision means that calling an Uber is no longer an option for NZ First? After all, where’s he gonna go? The problem with that argument is that the parliamentary arithmetic only changes once every three years. Once the votes have been counted, the numbers remain the numbers until the next election. And right there is where things get tricky.

With her right flank secured, Jacinda can now re-orient her government decisively towards the moderate centre. If her more radical supporters don’t like the idea of Labour building National’s roads, well, they can always bugger-off to the Greens. A move about which Jacinda, recalling her days on Tony Blair’s Third Way, can remain “intensely relaxed”. Because it just doesn’t matter whether the “woke” voters stay with Labour, or decamp to the Greens. Their voices continue to swell the progressive choir in either location.

But wait – there’s more. As Labour bulks up its vote by adopting policies dear to the heart of the moderate centre, and the Greens’ support is enlarged by Labour’s disgruntled progressive defectors, the awful prospect arises (from the perspective of moderate conservatives) of New Zealand electing its first, genuine Red-Green government. Better, surely, to head-off the possibility of an uninhibited left-wing government throwing off the clothing of common sense and getting all jiggy with the capitalist status quo, by making very sure they’re accompanied by a conservative NZ First chaperone!

Such is the delicious flexibility of this broad, new, ideologically ecumenical, political faith. The broad political churches of yesteryear were never able to be so accommodating!

One can only imagine Bridges’ dismay when he is finally forced to acknowledge that ruling out any kind of deal with NZ First was a very, very big mistake. When he realises that, in this country, both the Right and the Left get to the seat of power only after finding themselves a clear path to the Centre.

Jim Bolger, bless him, understood this – which is why he saved his prime-ministership by reaching out to Winston, on his left. Helen Clark understood it, too – which is why she was willing to break Rod Donald’s left-wing heart by making centrist Winston Peters’ day. Jacinda is a natural when it comes to inclusion – which is why she lost no time in learning how to sing Winston’s Hallelujah Song.

Simon Bridges, by making sure National remains a narrow political faith, has allowed Jacinda to further broaden her government’s ecumenical appeal.

 

 

62 COMMENTS

  1. OK, so the three-headed beast will probably keep Jacinda in power for another term. But what is she going to do with a second term? She’s woke, as evidenced by her apparent belief in “period poverty” and in the feminist interpretation of the so-called gender pay-gap. But I don’t see any evidence of a commitment to rolling back user-pays and neoliberalism. I don’t see any evidence that she has the slightest grasp of economics – that might not be a problem if her finance minister weren’t a neoliberal. It’s obligatory for lefties to despise Boris Johnson, but the embarrassing reality for the doctrinaire left is that Boris’s economic policy is well to the left of Jacinda’s three-headed monster. See here: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/30/boris-johnson-tories-left-economy-labour

  2. Disagree Chris. Winston has sided with Labour for the last 22 years, yet every election he tries to convince the voters he can work with either major party. He can’t.

    Simon, for all his faults, decided to put an end to that charade this year. Even when Key did the same Winston would bluster that it wasn’t Key’s decision.

    Winstons only chance is if people think that if the Labour/Green vote is a certain then they’ll need reining in.

  3. Sounds good to me. Nicely explained once again Mr Trotter, gives me some warm fuzzies this friday morn. Thanks.

  4. I don’t believe Jacinda has been lucky at all, in fact, I feel she’s been cursed. The success she’s experienced has zero to do with luck in my opinion. NZ had more than enough of National’s divisive bean counter style of politics where large numbers of kiwis were treated as the enemy all the while Mr Charisma Blingish spouted on about the farcical “rock star economy. That was akin to showing off the beautiful new letterbox while ignoring the house on fire in the background. NZ was more than ready for some kindness and empathy from it’s leaders.

    If Ardern had indeed been lucky :

    1) Andrew Little would have stood down a full year before he finally did which would have allowed Ardern the luxury of all important preparation time. Little was a totally inadequate leader who never at any stage of his 30 months as leader got any traction at all. He was only marginally better than the inept David Cunliffe. We saw what she remarkably achieved in an 8 week election campaign. Imagine how well she would have done leading an average bunch with a year and 8 weeks.

    2) If Ardern had been lucky she would have inherited a dynamic team ready to take on the world. Instead, with a few exceptions, she had largely a group of sensible shoe wearing, hairy arm pitted, overweight rabble that were all preparing for yet another 3 years in opposition. About as inspiring as cold tripe and onions. The sort of people who could routinely embarrass her and give Nat cheerleaders more ammunition for their incessant water on a stone undermining campaign.

    3) If Ardern had been lucky, she would not have needed NZF to form a Government. Just prior to election day, Ardern and Labour had remarkably headed National in the polls. All the momentum was theirs for a fair and square victory against a very well oiled National Party machine desperate to retain power. Ardern was on track to Govern alone. Incredible. Then, out popped a well organized protest campaign against a perfectly reasonable water tax. That was followed up with more tax scaremongering from the Nats designed to put Labour on the defensive and avoid their own diabolical record being highlighted. Then came Steven Joyce’s farcical Dead Cat On The Table 11 billion dollar fiscal hole. Labour’s momentum was stopped in it’s tracks.

    If Ardern has been lucky up till now, I look forward very much to her having some genuine luck in the months and years ahead. The only luck I see at this time for her is National being led by the ghastly and despised Soimon Bwidges and his 2.I.C being the vile and contemptuous Pullya Benefit.

    • If it wasn’t luck there’s not much force behind it. Chris Trotter recommended against the formation of a govt and he ‘got’ the wispyness of this neoliberal admin. Of course I’ll prefer her to the Nats. And also of course I will never vote for Labour.

  5. The real weakness in Ardern’s political strategy is not the fact that one of her supporting parties can defect to the opposition. In the past Labour has survived defections from both its right and its left wing.
    The real problem is that the strategy can only provide for business as usual. It has not brought change and it cannot bring change.
    What constitutes a cosy arrangement for the politicians is not necessarily good for the country.
    “Let’s do this” actually meant “Let Jacinda head the government of the Realm”.
    “Transformative change” actually meant “Let the Labour Party and its allies replace the National Party and its allies as the party of government”.
    Is that enough? Will that be enough?
    If you think it is and will be, then you are right to admire the Prime Minister’s “delicious flexibility”.
    If it proves to be not enough for the Realm of New Zealand at this point in its historical progress, then you are lauding an egocentric delusion rather than an astute political strategy.
    The generals of Napoleon’s Grand Army stopped being lucky at a place called Waterloo.
    Jacinda’s Waterloo might not be that far away.

    • ” The real problem is that the strategy can only provide for business as usual. It has not brought change and it cannot bring change ”

      YES YES after Winstons pledge to dismantle the neo liberal framework he purports too despise.

      I haven’t seen any action at all against it in fact he has not supported any measures that might even begin too tackle it head on.

      Jacinda can never and will never carry out the action that is needed too really wrest back control seceded too the powerful , wealthy elite and the corporations who dominate the ( for them ) the ” free market “

  6. Oh rubbish Chris. The Gweens are dead. Theyre gearing up to takeover from the Maori Party who’re on Wharepaku duty.

    Labour have lost the confidence of the left, they’re centre-right. So its everybody on the right has to move over to make room. The left is wide open, nobody home.

    • A word of advice. When events change what your research previously indicated, don’t be to rigged, some times people change, sometimes they get, lucky.

      • Hahaha! Isnt that a song, or a euphemism? Get lucky?

        That is what political science graduates fail in allowing for, a stroke of luck. Its reeels.

        • No well no one can be correct 100% of the time. It’s nice to have a little bit of flexibility in reserve for those times when assumptions are incorrect. Flexibility just boost success rates a little bit more into winning ones.

          • Well said Sam, Winston lives with that “flexiblity” in mind, as we always see how he has another card left up his sleeve to play then needed. He is the consumate poker player like Kenny Rogers song “the gambler” Enjoy.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hx4gdlfamo

            Kenny Rogers – The Gambler Lyrics;

            On a warm summer’s evenin’ on a train bound for nowhere,
            I met up with the gambler; we were both too tired to sleep.
            So we took turns a starin’ out the window at the darkness
            ‘Til boredom overtook us, and he began to speak.

            He said, “Son, I’ve made my life out of readin’ people’s faces,
            And knowin’ what their cards were by the way they held their eyes.
            So if you don’t mind my sayin’, I can see you’re out of aces.
            For a taste of your whiskey I’ll give you some advice. ”

            So I handed him my bottle and he drank down my last swallow.
            Then he bummed a cigarette and asked me for a light.
            And the night got deathly quiet, and his face lost all expression.
            Said, “If you’re gonna play the game, boy, ya gotta learn to play it right.

            You got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em,
            Know when to walk away and know when to run.
            You never count your money when you’re sittin’ at the table.
            There’ll be time enough for countin’ when the dealin’s done.

            Now Ev’ry gambler knows that the secret to survivin’
            Is knowin’ what to throw away and knowing what to keep.
            ‘Cause ev’ry hand’s a winner and ev’ry hand’s a loser,
            And the best that you can hope for is to die in your sleep. “

  7. OK, so the three-headed monster is likely to get Jacinda another term, though that’s due as much to the ineptitude and confusion of the opposition. But what will Jacinda do with a second term? We know she’s interested in advancing the woke agenda, as shown by her apparent belief in “period poverty” in the feminist interpretation of the so-called gender pay gap, and in the need for “hate speech” legislation. But I don’t see any evidence of a commitment to rolling back user-pays/neoliberalism. I don’t see any evidence that she has even the slightest grasp of economics, though this might not be such a problem if her finance minister weren’t a neoliberal. It is of course obligatory for SJW’s and self-styled “leftists” to despise Boris Johnson, but the embarrassing reality is that some aspects of Johnson’s current economic policy are well to the left of our government’s. See here: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/30/boris-johnson-tories-left-economy-labour

    • Second term, second baby, more pics and charm offensive, and the work is done for the shallow minded numbskull majority of Kiwis.

  8. The Maori Party getting back in power would be akin to the great resurrection itself. No the only hope for Simon now is to repent for his sins

  9. Simon Bridges has been upfront and truthful about his proposed dealing with NZF at the next election. The next opinion poll will see how this rare move for a political party goes down with the voters. Political commentators are in a fit of rage as it has taken the wind out of their sails as they pretend they know more than they do. My wish would be to see NZF totally gone as all they do is sow the racist seed and do little to help advance the average New Zealander

    • Trevor Sennitt,

      “Simon Bridges has been upfront and truthful”

      Friday funny Trevor. Bridges wouldn’t know the truth if he tripped over it and then it bit him on the arse. The most untrustworthy party leader in NZ political history.

    • You may want to revisit your thinking given what he had dont for over 60,s.
      National and ACT however have done nothing for the “average ” kiwi and my wish is for them to go.

  10. Yuk.
    Now that I’ve read the above Post by @ CT I feel like a bath, then a shower then a colonic irrigation, just to be sure.
    Whenever politicians in a country that holds the value of personal wealth capture then imprisonment in foreign owned banks for a criminal elite more closely than the safety and security of the people, you know you need to make sure they’ve not crawled up your arse to secure your undying loyalty despite the facts waving a hanky in plain sight while shouting “Yooo Hooo !? Over here…? “
    Has adern ever said “ Smile and wave boys, smile and wave.” I wonder?
    We’re a few now 5 million people on a couple of ( Filthy rich) main islands being preyed upon for resources that belong to all of us by a cadre of manipulative and exploitive psychopathic Lizards. Our politicians are simply their minions while we can only hope and prey that enough crumbs fall off the table to get us into our coffins with a minimum level of discomfort for them.
    Their method of operation is to confuse with trite minute` while we make do because we’re brainwashed into not only trusting them but believing them when they puff out their mind altering vapours.
    “Bless” jimbo bolger? See what I mean?
    Labour and National are the same and their sundry satellite parties are by extension the same too.
    They’re the same-same but slightly different enough to avoid inquiry because they have the same lies to perpetuate and those lies protect vast, grifted, swindled wealth.
    People? Forget the above brain fartery and allow your commonsense to prevail. Or you’re fucked.
    Well, actually, you are a bit fucked. Well fucked. Sooooooooo fucked. In fact, I think your ability to use ‘common sense’ with regard to your politics has been so subtly bleached out of your brains that you can’t remember the last time you used it so you’ve come to not miss it. A genius masterstroke of MSM induced mass hypnosis, one might argue.
    Adern is a shell or a political person. Bridges is a dopy fall guy who thinks allowing himself to be manipulated is, in fact, a sign of his intelligence.
    Simon Bridges? It isn’t. Sorry mate but someone had to tell you.
    Peters? Peters is a traitor. He’s a fully fledged all bought and paid for traitor in pin stripe feathers. Was he born in that suit?
    The Wine Box fuck up was his best work to date. To make sure our politics always lacks a focusing mechanism is his job.
    The complex shenanigans detailed above by @ CT is so unnecessarily complex and exhaustingly fiddly to ponder that it can only serve one purpose, as I’ve already written. It’s to hide the true nature of AO/NZ’s economy and its politics from the commonsense that hopefully still remains un flushed deep down inside your craniums.
    My greatest fear re politics is that the penny will drop AFTER it’s too late.
    And as the writer Charles Bukowski wrote:
    “there are worse things
than being alone
but it often takes
decades to realize this
and most often when you do
it’s too late
and there’s nothing worse
than too late”
    My instinct tells me that we’re at the cusp of losing our AO/NZ to foreign interests.
    Our politicians are already bought. We’re fucked when they get a better offer than we can provide.
    I think that, that is what [all this] is about.

  11. While this might play out to Labour’s advantage politically, there are bigger issues at stake. Because while the NZF handbrake curbs any meaningful and significant effort to reduce emissions, the planet burns, rivers get poisoned, inequality keeps on climbing, our water heads offshore, the housing crisis worsens and forestry land gets sold out from underneath us.

  12. I cannot for the life of me think how Winston will pass the 5% threshold.
    The PM has ruled out a dirty electorate deal.
    Winnie’s electoral support if roughly split between left and right leaning voters.
    Of the half that are right leaning, most vote Winston because they are old school cultural/moral/social conservatives rather than economic ones.
    The woke neoliberalism that defines the ruling coalition is the polar opposite to the values such small c conservative voters embody.
    Signing the TPPA and especially the UN Migration pact (not to mention the lingering threats to free speech) is utter anathema to many such voters.
    My gut says 5% will be well beyond NZ First, and that Bridges’ call, though a calculated risk, is an astute one.

      • As someone said in a different post: “Get strategic”.
        National have given an electoral seat to ACT. This demonstrates understanding if not acceptance, of MMP.
        Labour need to gift an electorate seat to the Greens. This will demonstrate political acumen over political delusion.
        Without an electorate seat, NZF wont make it; 5% is too remote.
        Hence the promises of massive expenditure of tax payers money in a region boasting a mere 152,000 denizens.
        I think BB&C is pretty near the mark.
        Especially if the media start zeroing in on NZ First’s political donations.

        • “Especially if the media start zeroing in on NZ First’s political donations.”

          Yes, sadly I agree because we know one thing is for certain, the media won’t zero in on the SFO investigation into Nationals political donations such is the extent of N.Z’s right wing media.

    • Bridges call is wishful thinking, given he’s at 6% preferred PM, he no doubt will lose party votes on that alone. Where those votes goes, well, there’s only one option, ACT.

  13. While this might play out to Labour’s advantage politically, there are bigger issues at stake. Because while the NZF handbrake curbs any meaningful and significant effort to reduce emissions, the planet burns, rivers get poisoned, inequality keeps on climbing, our water heads offshore, the housing crisis worsens and forestry land gets sold out from underneath us.

    • Yes Labour are closer to National now than they ever were in the past. They might as well be honest about it and form a coalition with them and be done with it.

  14. Well I needed a good laugh and this did it. Wishful thinking or faith wont make the ugly neo liberalism go away and it hasn’t.

  15. Pure wish fulfillment Trotter. Jacinda’s got a strategy and Winston plays with a straight bat… my arse. NZFirst will be goneburger at the next election. A fate richly deserved… two Wong’s don’t make a White.

    • I never got an answer about if you think starvation is an ethical mode of war. If you want to keep dodging it’s fine with me.

    • What about one Chinese is better than two Indians…Simon Bridges.
      Every single time people count Peters out, they get scorched.

      • 2008 was not a good year for Peters but a good one for the country 3 years of not supporting the me me party

        • Sorry Trevor but 2008 was the start of 9 years of hell for us average kiwis. You may be on the other side of the ledger but a good one it was not. This was highlighted by the arrogance of a National minister in Aaron “don’t you know who I am” Gilmore and Key’s “I will not raise GST” falsehood. It was the start of many lies. And why was Key so protective of the tape recording of he and Banks given his statement of “nothing to hide, nothing to fear”? I could give many many more examples Nationals poor governance, however there just isn’t enough time.
          Again I repeat, thousands of elderly voters were rewarded with NZ First policies but you condone Peters because of your dislike of him. Peters rescued a dying horse racing industry that brings millions to our economy and thousands of jobs.
          Some people only see what they want to see.

          • I agree I was on the right side of the ledger. I had a good job and worked hard for the company as did all,the average kiwis that were hired on the way .Good well paying jobs for over 300 kiwis plus all the extra tradespeople that got work. It was not perfect and some fell through the gap but dispite all,the promises has this COL pulled them back . More children in poverty more on the housing list houses prices continue to climb the list goes on. You care and see the answer through the policies of Labour I feel I care but see the answers through National policy. I do not see either of them fitting well with the dog in the manager red neck attitude from NZF. I am not blind to the faults I see in National and voice them at meetings sometimes with a frozty reception but at least I am allowed to do so without being thrown out of the party .

            • Trev, you say

              “More children in poverty more on the housing list houses prices continue to climb the list goes on.”

              I do not see your follow up of evidence by data, can you display this please.
              As a working member of the health system, we are now all on the right side of the ledger, better health care, better outcomes. The same can now be said for the education system. Yes I DO see better policies through Labour, policies where many more people are on the right side of the ledger

              • As you talk from your work experience I will not argue but when I read the post today from Dave McPherson re the problems with current mental health he obviously does not things have improved greatly.
                Re data have you not seen the figures for those wanting social housing from 6500 to 14500 and number of children in poverty is at 175000. You seem to see the country through a different set of glasses to me and it would seem a growing number of people

      • Bridges ripped Peter’s a new one in Tauranga 2008 and dumped NZFirst out of parliament. Get ready for a rerun.

  16. ” Well I needed a good laugh and this did it. Wishful thinking or faith wont make the ugly neo liberalism go away and it hasn’t ”

    This is what has been at the heart of Corbyn’s attempt with UK Labour too try and bring the Labour movement back too its historic purpose supporting and providing a voice and policy platform for working people and families who rely on NOT being exploited by big business which has taken place without the safeguards that the Labour parties used too provide.

    You know a strong union movement , protection against the corporate agenda and making sure ALL regardless of who it is pays their fair share of tax.

  17. With Simon Bridges having told voters, that NZ First voters will have to live with another Labour led government, the more conservative NZ First voters, not so happy with Labour and Greens, they may well stay home next election, or even go and vote Nats or the new Conservatives.

    So Bridges has a smart strategy after all, that can lead to NZ First falling below the 5 percent threshold. That could give the Nats enough votes to govern alone, in the end.

  18. Bridges is desperate as always. He is the quintessential dog barking at every passing car. He offers absolutely nothing positive to the NZ Political arena and is 100% insincere. He’d sell his soul to the devil in a heartbeat if he thought he’d be PM as a result. If he thought teaming up with NZF would get the Nats into Government, it would be done in a flash. Anyone who does not understand that is politically naive. We all know National are extremely arrogant. This is especially so toward NZF. In 2017, they budgeted on NZF getting arseholed out of Parliament and did everything they could to make that happen, including dirty politics. Their arrogance bit them on the arse again on an epic scale. That was quickly followed by the biggest tantrum in NZ political history when NZF had the audacity to favour clean politics over dirty politics.

    Now what do we have? National again arrogantly predicting NZF will be history in September. Bridges feels he has nothing to lose by ruling out working with NZF, in fact, he believes that action will appease his sulking cheerleaders and allow him to obtain the high moral ground. That is little more than a farcical game of smoke and mirrors. Also just a little bit funny that Bridges ruled out working with NZF two weeks after Duncan Garner repeatedly advised him to do so. Bwidges new policy advisory 🙂

    Anyone remember Blingish hilarious “victory” speech on election night? You know, the one that was about an hour late. The same speech that the Dipton Double Dipper had to refer to every 4 seconds because he was so totally unfamiliar with the contents. Bill was on automatic pilot all through the election campaign with the same narrative. “Strong Stable Government” “Strong Stable Government” “Strong Stable Government” “Strong Stable Government” “Strong Stable Government” “Strong Stable Government” etc etc bla bla bla. Saying anything other than that blew his mind. It was the best political comedic show I’ve ever witnessed anywhere in the world. First we have the victory balloons falling from the ceiling despite everyone else knowing the result was anything but a victory for National. The only way they could get into Government was with the support of NZF and Peters, the very party and man they arrogantly attempted to destroy. That of course didn’t stop Pullya Benefit on stage doing the seal clap when the Dipton Double Dipper congratulated NZF on their election result. Hilarious.

    We can look forward to the same charade in September should National need NZF to govern.

    Anyone who is counting out NZF in the upcoming election has learned absolutely nothing from history. Peters is the master at timing his run. He does it better than any NZ politician ever has. Once again, we can look forward to Bwidges having egg all over his face. It won’t make any difference as he will be gone as Nat leader very shortly after election night.

    Then up steps the new messiah for the Nats. Christopher Luxon. Haha. The Nats can look forward to a very long stint in opposition. Their tears will be flowing so have a truckload of Kleenex on standby.

    Happy days.

    Enjoy 🙂

  19. In my view it’s still anybodies election.

    By COL foolishly ruling out doing deals for example, electoral MP’s could spell the end for COL by splitting the votes. COL last election could have got Nelson and Auckland seats for example had the Greens and Labour collaborated as they got more votes between them.

    NZ First is in danger of falling below 5%. The media smell blood and RNZ for example has been running an election campaign against NZ First for months now in-between their cries for more aged migrant parents and more arranged marriages coming to NZ (which pretty much goes against most struggling Kiwis working their arses off, or being near homeless, the current aged population waiting on the health waiting lists, like a cup of cold sick).

    When your so called ‘left’ media allies are actually working behind your back to put the knife in, but labour goes woke to back them up in bad social policy, surprise, surprise RNZ now making 18 people redundant from one of their most popular areas to feed the woke destruction.

    All it will now take is a Natz social media campaign to 70% of the rest of the voters pointing out where their tax payers dollars are being diverted to. Heavily migrant communities do not necessarily vote for their own ethnic group (possibly sick of all the corruption) aka Mt Roskill. Mt Eden bi elections) so ethnic bribes and running candidates along identity lines, can go the other way. Likewise 18% more temp visas under COL which has bought hundreds of thousands more residents here than under the Natz as more people, surprisingly more people can’t find a house and their job is gone or going.

    I hate what the the Natz stand for, and think they will make everything worse, but putting a bob each way for identity politics, while ignoring the mainstream, are mistakes that Labour do every election which is why they mostly lose as of late.

    Labour’s kindness speech for everybody else, is wearing thin. Most statistics for the majority of people living in NZ are worse. The only relief from congestion has been the coronavirus which has cleared Auckland roads, quicker than the road tax.

    Is it to late for the old dog Labour to learn new tricks, aka listening to the ‘average voter’ that saved ScoMo’s bacon?

    “Morrison’s success came down to a singular focus on what mattered to “the average voter” rather than what he called “the Canberra bubble”.

    “You need to listen to what the public is saying and talk about the issues that matter to them,” he said. “The most important thing is speaking the language of the voters.”

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/on-the-inside/409056/week-in-politics-fighting-talk-from-peters

    One thing that has gone in the COL’s favour is that Simon Bridges has put his foot in it for Maori…

    “When the action moved to Waitangi, Bridges challenged the government’s record on delivering for Māori, suggested the Waitangi Tribunal should be wound up when all the settlements have been completed and said Māori seats in Parliament should eventually go.”

    Should not be new news for anybody, but I’ve noticed that the woke are so keen on their own narrative, they fail to see what is blatantly obvious, as NZ moves to a ‘multicultural’ society, Maori votes are lessened, the Maori seats will go, as will the treaty of Waitangi.

  20. “If her more radical supporters don’t like the idea of Labour building National’s roads, well, they can always bugger-off to the Greens. A move about which Jacinda, recalling her days on Tony Blair’s Third Way, can remain “intensely relaxed”.

    Most of the ones I have spoken to aren’t going to be buggering off anywhere. They will simply be staying at home on election day. Apparently just being in favour of a large scale state house building program with over 14000 on the waiting list makes you a radical these days.

  21. New Zealand voters have a choice, Jacinda Ardern and her inclusive brand or the National Party winner takes all brand. Simon Bridges is just an unlucky stool pigeon. Christopher Luxon may get a higher stool, if he is lucky.

  22. Excellent debating points on this CT piece! the only problem I see in the run-up to election 2020 is in the ground tackle of the Neoliberal Ship of State. Any competent Skipper knows that when you’re Anchored off a reef and a storm blows in, you need a pretty solid Hook to keep from dragging anchor and ending up pilloried on the rocks.
    In comparison, Jacinda’s Ship of State has been throwing everything overboard, thinking that the lighter the boat the slower the drag – instead of using that big Plow anchor hidden in the treasury bilge to bring the ship to a halt prior to hitting the rocks.
    Our economy, if it continues shedding human ballast without setting that big anchor and sharing the economic benefits with the bodies thrown overboard is going to leave the skipper & all hands left on deck to go down with the ship.
    As the storm worsens from all sides there isn’t a side show on earth that will save the ship with no one manning the Pumps and Oars in a combined effort to keep it off the rocks.
    Like National, Labour, NZF & the vitamin deficient Greens are stretching the life support system (economy) too thin and only thinking of their own survival and the survival of the Corporations and Consultant Bureaucrats all secure in their Cliff top houses on dry land.
    No Army can march very far on an empty stomach and living in shredded tents until they either starve to death on the way to the next battle, or give up and retreat to higher, safer, ground wherever they can find it.
    Given the amount of Kiwi’s left behind from this Neoliberalist cluster fek thats lasted 36 years and counting, we all could be on our way to hell in a hand-basket if the food and tents run out and the landing force chained in financial irons below decks in the holds continue to be tossed overboard twice a year on market growth expectations.
    I think the Skipper still has a chance at redemption before the September Gails blow hard on the Beam, But if she fails to reinforce the ground tackle prior to the storm & unchain the soldiers huddling in the bilges, we are essentially fekked by poor Seamanship! You can’t leave the big anchor in the bilge! It takes a lot of heft to lift it and set it firmly in place on the bottom to keep from hitting the rocks. A Barrel of Rum and some fresh provisions becomes your biggest ace in the hole to keep the whole crew happy and working together for the benefit of the whole to keep afloat when the storms come. There’s still time, but not much for a small ship of State on a big angry global sea…

  23. To expand Smedley Butler’s truthful words – War, Politic’s and Neoliberalist Economic Management is a Racket…

  24. In other news ACT have quietly made free speech and fair firearms laws their bottom line for government this election.
    The ignorance and arrogance of our current government attacking its civilians basic freedoms out of blind woke ideology is going to hurt them at the ballot box this election.

    ACTs bottom line will guarantee a proportion of disaffected voters get behind them and I’m willing to predict that proportion is higher than the willfully tone deaf might think.
    If members of our own government want to attack our own citizens for being white or male or attack even what we want to eat and our way of life while spouting “they are us” of only particular minorities, let’s see how that goes.
    Only a 1% shift will see another MP for ACT and more if it goes higher.
    NZ first is the key, and how badly they have mauled their voter base.
    By the panicked Shane Jones bid in northland I’d say their polling is worrying them.
    It should.

  25. National wants to raise the pension age that’s almost enough in itself. All Winston has to do is ring that bell, it’s looking likely that the ports of Auckland will be moved to Northland and with $3 billion spent on the regions, banning foreign ownership and Winston getting to say vote for me if you wanna handbrake Winston can get to 5%.

    Also everyone everyone knows national will kiss Winston’s backside again if he holds the balance, noone genuinely believes National wouldn’t pick up the phone on election night.

    I’m genuinely more concerned about the greens but if labour looks too center Chris could be right

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