This is what I’m doing when I’m not promoting far right UN conspiracy theories
The amount of pundits and columnists using the atrocity in Christchurch to push their own grievances is pretty sick when you consider the incredible generosity, forgiveness and dignity the Muslim community have expressed. Self serving ideological narrative constructs aside, here’s how I see this atrocity impacting the political landscape.
Labour: Jacinda’s remarkable leadership has impressed middle New Zealand, and they will respect her at the polls come what may. She made us feel good about ourselves at a time when we felt shame, she became the leadership we want to see. Her empathy and compassion and strength have made us a better people. Labour will be the largest political party at the 2020 election.
National: While National had no idea their co-opting of a far right UN conspiracy would lead to James Shaw being punched or align with a mass murdering white supremacist, they still smell bad from the association. The manner in which Judith Collins has come out with more empathy than her entire time in politics shows she has understood how rapidly the political tide has turned. I wouldn’t be surprised to see National start to drop heavily in the polls now, any hope they had of gerrymandering a win by being the biggest Political party while sinking Labour’s coalition parties beneath 5% and taking the Government majority is a pipe dream now. Those National voters in the middle will vote for Jacinda out of respect and those on the right will angrily demand a more culture war politics from a National Party that can’t give them that. Judith won’t move before the election now, she will allow Simon to take the loss and immediately challenge him after he fails at the ballot box.
Greens: Their current desire to connect micro aggressions to macro violence and blame Pakeha for this act of white supremacy violence will probably be huge on Twitter and micro aggression policing millennials but be the final straw for the more centrist Green voter. Green Party apologists will argue the Greens are righteous and should be supported no matter what yet history suggests any political party that has gone backwards in the last 3 elections require far more self reflection than unquestioning subservience to a failing communications strategy. There’s still a good chance they will slip under 5% as voters turn away from their divisive blame game stuff and are drawn to Labour’s inclusive message. Pure temple politics vs broadchurch politics at a time of national grieving is always going to see pure temple ostracised.
NZ First: NZ First will not be able to blow any of their dog whistles any longer and will be reliant on Shane Jones winning Northland to remain in Parliament. They are also at an inflexion point philosophically, what does NZ First stand for? If NZ First can re-identify their stance against neoliberalism and reinvent it into being politically relevant again they could be a new force unleashed. Labour & the Greens are effetely free market parties, NZ First’s regional growth fund is effectively direct Keynesianism. Stop hating on the migrants and start hating on the economic hegemonic structure that has ribbed NZ of its egalitarianism. NZ First need to parachute in a couple of super star candidates. There are two who could be enormous boons for the Party and speak of a new direction as Winston moves into Statesman status
ACT: If Seymour plays the culture war card far harder than National, he has a real chance of pulling in an extra 2 or 3 MPs. There is a small but vocal electorate who are outraged by the Crusaders considering a name change and who think the woke have run amok, Seymour could bait that electorate and get 2,5% just from that. Because he was on Dancing with the Stars, he can frame his snowflake assertions as under grad ‘just asking questions’ styled smart arse-ism.
New Conservatives: Their proximity to the UN conspiracy makes them too radioactive and they will need to roll back lots of their messaging which is what makes them attractive to rednecks in the first place. Sub 5% but will pick up angry disaffected voters.
Blue Green: While this political vehicle was supposed to just be a spoiler for the Greens, those National voters liberal enough to vote environmentally will be equally appalled at the UN conspiracy stuff. The Blue Greens will quickly turn into a protest vote for those voters. It won’t give them 5%, but it will hurt National and the wider right wing vote.
TOP: Will benefit from the same above dynamic.
New Political Party? There’s always the chance of a new political party that spins things out of the predictable.
Normally events can be eclipsed, or glossed over or forgotten, but this atrocity is unique to us in modern political history and it has stamped something deep into our national psyche and many are privately thankful Jacinda was here to lead us through what has been a test for who we think we are and who we want to be so I think the ramifications of this event will be felt deep into the 2020 election.
Based on that my thinking is come election 2020, Labour will be the largest party, National will slip to mid 30s, the Greens slip beneath 5% as their ‘blame cracker’ rhetoric alienates , ACT gains a couple of MPs via coat-tailing if David plays the culture war card while TOP, BlueGreens and Conservatives don’t cross 5%.
If NZ First refocus on neoliberalism and parachute in some new candidates, they could be the wild card.
Labour is empathetic, strong and stable, both in New Zealand and globally. Still believe Greens can get back on track before the election if they can just policy focus and deflect face punches from media and constituents. I reckon NZF could leverage the need for increased vigilance by incorporating safety measures for our older communities and migrant analysis (the days of dog whistling migrant racism are over, we need to know who the hell is in this country). Also more of politicians like Jonesy who put themselves out there to hold the bureaucrats to account.
Privately and publicly thankful that Jacinda Ardern showed exemplary leadership at such a terrible time, I think.
As others have also said, I cannot think of another politician who could have risen to the occasion as the Prime Minister did; her crucial message of the necessity of inclusiveness, conveyed in such a constructive and healing way is so self-evident that hopefully it is also embedded in the national psyche as it needs to be.
The road to be taken.
“If NZ First refocus on neoliberalism and parachute in some new candidates, they could be the wild card.”
They need to focus on rebuilding state servuces woung back or sold off in tge last 30 years. If NZF promised to buy back the privatised share of our powercos and re-amalgamate into a new Public Electricity Service Corp, I think that would give them serious traction in next year’s election.
That would be their best option. Immigration dog whistliig is now dead to 99% of NZers.
Jacinda has handled the Christchurch shooting almost perfectly imo. Appropriately sombre, but not overly emotional (i.e. openly weeping) is exactly what a lot of people were looking for in their leader – sympathy, strength and resolve. Personally I think she over did it a little with the hijab, even when it wasn’t required or called for (given that it represents an overtly religiously based anti-feminist/patriarchal message), but otherwise a near perfect performance. The next election is surely her’s (i.e. Labour’s) to lose. At this point in time, she certainly has my confidence for the next election term (assuming I bother voting).
It is not over doing it at all, it was out of respect that the PM wore a hijab at the mosques and at the 2 minute silence/call to prayer. Even at Sikh temples, everyone, regardless of who they are, have to cover their heads. Past PM’s Helen Clark, John key, Bill English all observed that long standing protocol.
You are correct in my opinion that JA showed respect in wearing the head scarf. There also are many Muslims that feel its a token gesture but choose not to question it because they feel it was done with sincerity. I am not questioning her sincerity but you would have to be completely naive to think JA wasn’t aware of the imagery that went world wide and without doubt has given her an advantage in the polls. It wouldn’t matter who was leading National the score would have been JA xx opposition 0. She has won this battle no doubt but the next election isn’t a done deal.
One thing that is conveniently brushed under the carpet is the out of control immigration under the neo liberal John Key government of nine years.
We were forced fed with a steady diatribe of how we ‘need’ all these immigrants. Truth is we don’t , we need skilled immigrants that suit OUR interests , – and then limits . Hard as that is, – its the truth. We do not not need immigrants for the sake of just having immigrants.
We do not need any more two dollar shops or hamburger flippers.
NOW,…the only reason there is a shortage of skilled workers in the FIRST PLACE is because of the neo liberal initiatives started 35 years ago under Roger Douglas. Union busting, and the minimum wage.
The minimum wage and workers contracts kicked off by Ruth Richardson’s Employment Contract Act 1991.
The smart ones left for Australia. And they are still there . All 650,000 of them. And they will never come back.
The neo liberals wanted a class of cheap , compliant workers to do the dirty jobs to keep them serviced. And the only options available to them were to import immigrants from country’s who have no notion whatsoever of western Trade unionism.
India and China.
We are a Pacific nation , – not an Asian one.
Our legal system is based on Westminster, – not Beijing.
But globalist neo liberalism needs these vast expendable pools of cheap unskilled labour.
And this is WHY sensible immigration levels are a sub field of opposing neo liberalism. They are intrinsically linked. We are not talking having near zero levels of immigration , but one of a regulated fashion that has limits. Refugees are a different category altogether. But mass wholesale immigration that has as its motive cheap labour , – we do not need.
We have no right to lie to immigrants about jobs here when there are none on offer to them. We have no right promising them housing when we have a massive housing shortage. And our politicians have no right telling us we need all these people when clearly we dont and cannot even provide for them without stressing our infrastructures.
Neo liberalism has affected virtually every facet of our lives for three decades and created a horrifically imbalanced society .
And this is where NZ First comes in. They are the ONLY political party that states this plainly and unequivocally. They are simply telling the blunt truth and the neo liberal press do not like it. And this is only one issue.
There are many , many more.
Martyn , you have hit the nail on the head by this statement:
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… ‘ NZ First’s regional growth fund is effectively direct Keynesianism ‘…
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YOU DO NOT ,… use human beings as economic cannon fodder as the neo liberal seek to do. The neo liberal seeks to return us to the age of Lords and Serfs. The Haves and the Have not’s. The minority Elites and the masses in servitude.
They are around 650 years too late.
The notion of the sovereign , regulated nation state and the decent society is too well ingrained in us now to turn back the clock to serfs living in mud huts , – or moldy run down apartments.
Which brings us right back round to where NZ First shines:
Keynesiainism.
Because since before WW2, that is what this country practiced. We were, in the late 1960’s, – the 6th most wealthy nation per capita on earth. Behind Denmark. Never mind Britain joining the EEC, never mind the Arab Oil shocks of the 1970’s.
The quality of life of the average NZ home was far higher before the treasonous neo liberal ideology of Roger Douglas. Right up to and including the last Keynesian PM, Sir Robert Muldoon.
This country has been wrecked and gutted by neo liberalism and its irresponsible deregulation’s in nearly every public sector to loot and plunder the wealth of the people of this country.
Again , this is where NZ First shines and will continue to shine.
For unless this country returns to that broad economic system, – the malaise that this country is under will continue, – and continue to get steadily worse. And there’s not a damn thing Jacinda Adern or any other leader can do or say about it that’s going to change that fact.
NZ First is the ONLY party who recognize this and have pursued that for 3 decades and have not splintered or fallen apart.
And there is not a snowballs chance in hell that any other party will ever form in this country with those credentials. Oh ,… and for the record?
Under MMP , there will never be a political party that large they can form a govt on their own. National under John Key might almost have made it,… but even they needed the rigged one seat / dead party of ACT and the compliant Maori party to hang on to power. So people better get used to the idea. There are enough people in this country that see these issues to guarantee NZ First is here to stay.
And lets also remember that the global and domestic popularity of Adern has been highlighted by this horrific tragedy. But let us also remember it was NZ First who enabled this government to exist in the very first place. Nothing more , and nothing less. Happily , – it was a wise choice by NZ First.
No one could have foreseen future events unfolding this way.
So it is only prudent that people remember this fact that it was NZ First who put Labour back in power before they start spouting off as NZ First being ‘ in decline’.
Far from it.
You just might need them to ensure the party of your choice is returned to government.
In fact , – you know you will.
For good reason.
New Right Fight – Who are the New Right?
http://www.newrightfight.co.nz/pageA.html
WILD KATIPO We ask Martyn to include your blog as a contributor’s article please.
Please put this up as an article please and become a contributor as your riveting depiction of NZF importance to retain Labour is very important to get out to the NZ audience now.
Wow. Great post Wild Katipo. Yep we were really screwed in ’84.
+100 …well said WILD KATIPO….you make more sense than most
Wild Katipo – award for best comment I’ve ever seen, on or above the level of Martyn, Chris and Frank. Many thanks to yourself and the TDB team for such truth and knowledge that won’t be seen anywhere else. Shot mate!
plus 100 Wild Katipo
Their biggest problem, is that it could be overshadowed by them been asleep at the wheel, because, they were asleep at the wheel!
No action on Poverty, Homelessness, Health & Education crisis.
Shite Treaty Settlement progress!
If you look at their 3 years in government, they havent done bugger all when you compare it to their 2017 promises.
Neoliberal politics at play, incrementalism.
It has been said before and needs to be repeated that the amount of work required to fix the problems left behind by the previous government isn’t going to happen overnight. It isn’t going to happen in the space of three years either. There is so much to be done that it’s going to take several terms in office, maybe more. The question remains to be seen whether Kiwis can recognize this and continue to support this government through successive terms to allow the work that has been started to continue to its end.
Well we used to own a FIAT Crusader and a Crusader caravan. There are a whole range of Elddis Crusader caravans on the market in NZ today. The term Crusader is associated world wide with all sorts of organisations and products.
Opposition to changing the name of the Canterbury provincial rugby team away from Crusaders is not solely confined to the corrosive ACT party or any of its potential misguided supporters.
Any consideration of the ban on the name Crusaders because of the terrorist attack on March 25 in Christchurch may as well include the city’s very name and the removal of every christian symbol.
I am reasonably certain the local Muslim community are not interested in the token gesture of a rugby teams name change especially one that would just fuel more hate and far right activism.
I might add that ditching the sword wielding horsemen may work.
Except for 2 members of the Greens all politicians have come out of this situation looking like people that care. Without doubt Jacinda has shone but it may not carry over to the next election as she is lacking any back up. A deputy with the carisma of a stone Twyford and Calloway both floundering Robinson is the only ace in the pack really.
It should be remembered that Winston Churchill despite leading England to victory did not win the next election.
Trevor, I’ve never read anything but National cry baby horseshit from you. Your on the wrong site mate, or maybe wrong article – Hosking is further down the page, show your colours there, please.
yes I am certain NZF has the ability to reap votes from the average voter worried about the sale of all our assets.
When Winston came to Gisborne before the election he drew thwe biggest crowd we have seen for years, as he spoke mostly for hour about taking back our assets and got a large applause.
So we do need a strong voice as Winston is for our future and Winston has said many times that the selloff occurring during the National Government during 2008 to 2017 was wrong and we need to retain assets not sell them.
Winston is tired now, yawn.
No , your tired mate.
When you can still perform the same sort of high powered duty’s as Peters can as Foreign Minister in the same sort of time frames as well as being Deputy PM at 74-75 years of age I’ll tip my hat to you .
Until then , – get to the back of the queue where you belong.
I know WK, it is not easy, to support and cling to a dying party, called NZ First, that has lost a lot of ammo now, as after Christchurch it will be impossible to rant against immigrants and Muslims now.
Ah, there is still China, sorry, yes, China bashing is popular, maybe Winston will get back to that now?
Winston will have to get in line behind Labour in bashing the Chinese and their ‘Chinese-sounding Surnames’ buying up Auckland.
Who’s the racist party?
I’ll bet you Winston will adapt and change, unlike some folk around here!
I am sure he will live FOREVER, and be held up on his feet by his supporters, even when he does not breathe anymore.
We love Jacinda, but modus operandi and status quo will not change, thanks, we got the message.
I think you made several good predictions there Martyn:
I too think NZF is toast. Winston will be consigned to history in 2020. Judging by his current behavior, I think he’s resigned to the fact. Unless they can do some kind of dodgy deal with that provincial growth slush fund and buy a Maori electorate, they’re gone. I think they were finished even before Christchurch, simply because the average NZF voter is to the right of National and they thought going with Labour was treachery. FB was full of such comments at the time.
Most National voters have nowhere to go. So I think they’ll lose some votes but not many. If you want to win an election, you need to stand for something and National appears not to stand for anything at the moment. It’s sad really.
Greens: Like you said they’re in danger of losing their 5%. They’ve badly overplayed this ‘all white men are racists’ thing. Those two crazy women will drive away the few sane people left in that party and they make Shaw look weak because he can’t control them. The blue/green thing might hurt too.
Labour: The blip from Christchurch won’t last. By 2020 they will be asked to account for the failure of Kiwibuild, a billion trees, ineptitude over tax reform and a slowing economy. Despite all the promises there will still be people living in cars, on the street and bashing their children. False promises come home to roost.
ACT: Can they be the big winner? I dearly hope so. I know a lot of disgruntled people intending to vote for them, but maybe I live in a bubble.
Conclusion: There is a possibility that Labour might lose their coalition partner and National may gain one. Maybe.
winston will adapt. he is not in a weak place. the coalition need to hold together. winston and the greens and labour could well siphon off nat voters.
the nats are lacking credible political partners. how could they get any?
the nats inherent “born to rule” attitude does not help them.
Some business financial support will drift to non national parties.
the dreadful mosque massacre has been a huge wake up call to all of us.
The next general election is going to be very interesting. My pick is that the greens are the most vulnerable in the coalition.
Knowing Bridges’ track record of passing HIS bills onto the NZ taxpayers to pay will we expect Simon Bridges to claim travel costs from the NZ taxpayers for his e-scooter transportation?
But then that publicity stunt by Bridges’ and co on a couple of e-scooters makes him look more stupid than he does every time he opens his mouth.
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