One News Poll – National bleeding but not dead and why Labour wouldn’t go with only the Greens


Labour – 45% up 3

National – 43% down 2

Greens – 7% up 1

NZ First – 5% n/c

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The only surprise in the poll is that the Greens went up (and I’d argue that was an anomaly). National lost 2 but the real movement is the sinking nature of Simon Bridges leadership as Judith Collins support rises. The damage to his leadership has been done and now it’s just a matter of time before the party turns to Judith to replace Bridges.

People thinking the Economy will get worse went up to 41% so we can drop the belief its just biased business wanting to skewer Labour.

This is a good poll for National, despite all the destruction, they just slipped 2 points.

The real damage here is to Simon Bridges and his leadership.

There have been some excited calls on Twitter that Greens plus Labour could be the Government which is just fantasy world stuff. After the flakiness of the Greens, Labour would never go into a coalition with only them. The strength of Key’s Government with ACT, United Future and Maori Party was that he could go left and right when he needed. Labour will always want to keep NZ First in the mix because being reliant on the Greens would be a recipe for disaster.

Could you imagine if the Deputy Prime Minister Marama Davidson called on white bros to delete themselves? The backlash would make the Orewa Speech look a reasonable discussion on race and politics.

Labour would be sobbing if they hadn’t gained from this meltdown and the danger for Simon now is what happens when JLR can get himself out of the mental health hospital he’s been sectioned to and restarts the civil war.

UPDATE: JLR has been released.


  1. Its only a 1% drop, thats not lethal as well as theres 12% +1% up for grabs! NZF could swing because he’d know that the Nats would cough up the most, now, if there was an election now. The swinging 11% (Undecided) will do what they always do, shit themselves and wont vote.

    • Why Winston though? In dollar terms the coalition government is doing ok.

      Look at the Maari Paati, they’re there, where’s ACT? To shy to put them up on the board eh? I think the contagion, the root has set in. National stink of rigor mortis.

      Remeber. The tallest player always jumps higher.

  2. And Labour will keep importing Natzi voters from overseas… all National has to do is have a pulse and the numbers of people voting with their wallets will put them and Crusher over the line in 2020.

  3. The long slide to a Crusher Collins leadership campaign has begun now that she is on the prefered PM ladder.
    I wonder if Simon is feeling the pain as Judith is putting the pins in the Bridges voodoo doll.
    Her strategy is working like clockwork.

  4. Since politicians never mention the prime factors that will determine the future of the people who live here, I find it impossible to get enthusiastic about any of them.

    Sadly. whichever party forms the core of the next government, we can be sure that the squandering of energy and resources will continue, that the Earth will continue to overheat (with global and local consequences) and official policy will be geared to causing more overheating not less, that the human population will increase, that pollution levels will continue to rise, that the quality of life will continue to fall, that costs will increase faster than incomes, and that the general populace will continue to be misled.

    How can we get enthusiastic about any of that?

  5. 43% still prepared to vote for a party that sells Party List positions to the highest bidder??
    Looks like MSM have done a great patch up job by steering all discussion into a “what a naughty fellow this JLR chap is”.

    The selling of our democracy to foreign interests is kinda’ the bigger story, you might have thought.

    • Yes, it is WAY bigger – but more complicated, nuanced and controversial BUT it might wake up the hobbitses.

    • Nah, they’ve got no where else to go.

      Instead of saying I’ll cut taxes National say Labour will raise taxes.

      Instead of saying I’ll cut debt National say Labour will raise debt.

      Instead of saying cut the State Housing stock National say Labour will throw around free money.

      See the problem? Instead of saying vote for me based on policy John Key said if you don’t vote for you’re a commie and now long after John Key rage quit The National Party will suffer his strategic mistake by categorically ruling out a coalition with Winston.

  6. Guys, you really need to be worried about this poll.

    Potentially the worst scandal in decades and National drops only 2 points. This shows that National has a very loyal base that isn’t swayed.

    As this scandal has developed it’s turning into a bit of a nonentity and the media pundits (even on Red Radio!) are saying it’s overblown. No charges will be filed by police and Bridges will remain the leader (for now).

    In a couple of weeks time it will be out of the news scrutiny will be back on the government and their non-performance.

    • Nah. It’s just because John Key backed all the right leaning voters into National and now it’s impossible for them to form a right leaning coalition government. And I’d say it will be about 2 or 3 tax takes before National can flip it on Labour. Policy my boy, policy policy policy will learn you.

    • Of course they have a loyal base – the problem is the loyal base isn’t enough to form a government with. They also need the swinging voters who went to Labour at the last election. Those people – especially the female ones – are hardly going to come rushing back after what they saw last week.

      No self respecting female Labour voter is going to change their vote to a party that suppresses allegations of harassment within the party. Most swinging male voters will be pretty turned off by that as well – and rightly so because it shows very clearly what the National Party’s priorities are.

    • “Potentially the worst scandal in decades and National drops only 2 points.”

      Thus far.

      And if it drops another 2 points, Andrew?

      And another 2 after that?

      What then?

    • No , it wont.

      But what it will do is usher in the Collins era even more quickly. And when that happens it will see the decline through division of the National party even further.

      Bring it on.

    • A good wrap up of the history of National.
      National’s policies are reactive, not proactive.
      They rarely have any progressive ideas, and those they do are usually borrowed from other parties and repackaged to look like they thought of it first.

  7. Good news. Also I seldom watch MSM but saw Newshub last night.

    Jacinda and Andrew came across really well, sincere on the $$$ for MP’s and reforming the donations system, which clearly needs major reform aka ban political donations before NZ turns even more corrupt than we already are!

    The amount it would take for the public to fund political parties, is minuscule like $10 million every 3 years, in the context of all the other routs like America’s cup for $200 million plus that apparently we need and they can’t use private money to fund (even though it is a billionaire sport???)

    Noticed that Natz Goodfellow was there spinning. What a joke if he’s investigating the complaints from women against Ross and reforming Natz against women, as a little bird rumour is that he has been in trouble for beating up his wife. No charges of course. Go figure. With twists like that, no wonder the Natz are in decline.

  8. 42% of National supporters are comfortable with National, damned comfortable with this moral and ethical desert. Who is worse, Nat MP’s or their support base?

    Business as usual. Does a bear shit in the woods? Good ol’ Claire Trevett, waxing lyrical this morning as to why Nationals reprehensible supporters are sticking with these animals. GIve me a break Claire!

    But doesn’t this mess so thoroughly demonstrate what the National Party has become though?

    Bridges etc would have known JLR to be a strange bugger. A reliable bagman, a womaniser and God knows what else. But these arseholes couldn’t spot an even bigger one in their midst such is the poison that is Nationals culture. And then the leak.

    Knowing the level of dissent in his caucus Bridges then blamed the Speaker of the House for the leak. No proof just lies. How bad is that, smear the Speaker of the House knowing otherwise and divert attention?

    When things went bad and the apparent leaker texted Bridges identifying himself and his tenuous mental state, i.e. suicidal, did National back off, no way, National doubled down. They redlined him didn’t they, see if he’s good for his threats and make that problem go away. That conclusively explains Bridges seemingly illogical rationale behind pursuing that leak enquiry. The longer it dragged on the more likely JLR would do something final.

    What a bunch of crooks they are. Self preservation rates as the base instinct of a National MP, nothing else matters. When one of the chief smearers in Nationals line up went rogue, they went for the jugular.

    Did Paula give a damn that JLR might end it whilst she overtly set about putting the boot in. Nah, not really. Nor Bridges, nor anyone in National.

    This is the party in all its ethical and moral disgrace that wants to be governement again. And its supporters love this shit.

    • That poll didn’t ask if they were comfortable with any particular party, it asked who they would vote for if an election was held last week.

      No one is talking about this but there are no other options for right wingers to vote for at the moment – so of course their numbers look high. A lot of the people who picked National might have stayed at home if the election was held last week.

      I’d also want to know if the proportion of Dont Knows went up too.

    • both the only way there voter base got richer was by acting as rentiers and screwing the rest for the basics of life and looting the commons there scum nat voters are responsible for nine years of neglect and greed

  9. One good thing from all this is we shouldn’t have to listen to anyone in Labour talking about targeting the ‘soft’ National voter.
    Because there is clearly no such thing.

    So maybe next time Labour or the Greens might just consider targeting the missing voters, hopefully before things get too much worse and the disenfranchised get scooped up by some sort of NZ Trump or Ukiper.

    • Spot on! No surprise National voters couldn’t give sweet fuck all about the wretched machinations of the inner workings of the party that represents them. By the way, isn’t vote buying illegal, what about candidate place selling – this is a big failing of the system we have of list MPs being able to ushered into the corridor’s of power for money (100K seems a bit cheap for that) in exchange for …in this case Chinese soft power. What rat finks the National party politicians are, and as if the whole world doesn’t know that’s a modus operandi China employs the world over.

    • Target missing voters.
      Thought experiment:
      A housing policy which puts the 30% of people who rent into a home which they own. A policy which provides a State Advances Corporation to create the finance, 30-40 year very low interest rate mortgages. Who would those people who never thought they would have a home of their own vote for, for the rest of their lives.

    • A salary at under seventy two thousand dollars a year can no longer sustain a family in Auckland. This view, In this day and age religion has passed us by where the individual has become privatised while in the public realm it has become largely vacant. I’m to young to be a gen X and to old to be a millennial but my generations are not as heroic as our parents and grandparents who after the Second World War rebuilt the societies the world over. In the last 40 years that individual quest has become central and ultimately unrewarding and hollow.

      So there has to be a reawakening of the view that I constantly hope comes from the generations in school today and a return to the public realm where people with the highest aspirations and abilities seek fulfilment in social and human progress rather than through there own income or accumulated wealth. There’s nothing wrong with higher incomes and accumulated wealth but in the end with the guidance towards a return to big ideas, more integrated societies. I mean last century, the 20th century in World War Two New Zealand was seeking security FROM Japan. Now in the 21st century we seek security WITH Japan and all these instinctive goals of the past become rather hollow.

      People get a sense of if you are wary or frightened of them. So the best way to demonstrate that you are unafraid or wary of them, but serving them is to keep the changes coming, always challenge people and extend them. If Bill English had of stayed on we would almost certainly have become a client state of Serco. If Hellen Clark had of stayed on we would have advanced Super contributions to the point of self sufficiency so we have to keep the changes coming and keep them consistent. We can’t leave these things unwanted and hollow. Once these things have been brought to an election and voted on we can then debate what kind of society we want to build and appoint those people to undertake the office work and then we can work on the shifting roadworks towards the Asia Pacific and a much better interlocking system of culture, entertainment, hospitality, urbanisation, travel, tourism, security and feelings with the countries around us and we need to try and nail every one of these changes.

      State housing is apart of the spirit and culture of New Zealand. The low wage worker has a sovereign position in this country. No other class is asked to sacrifice there lives more than the underclass for the security and sovereignty of New Zealand. And they have and should have communities across the length and breadth of this country and I think the idea that the state should push them aside or forfeit them or force the assimilation of them into the pursuits of the individual is a strategic mistake of the highest order. It’s wrong and is across the spirit of New Zealand’s national security. Having the right to maintain ones own sovereignty and that of the whole nation as we where before the domination of European culture will give a new generation power and energy and wealth and there children will go to schools in a society that I’m always hoping will rise to the occasion and put every one in there backpacks and carry the change, and the friends they make in those school will assure each other’s position in New Zealand’s society.

      Any financial view I think is wrong, misplaced and I hope it continues to evaporate in public life as people begin to find smarter friends.

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