Roy Morgan poll confirms blogger’s prediction – National is in freefall

By   /   November 27, 2017  /   11 Comments

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It’s taken faster than I thought possible, but the first post-election poll – from Roy Morgan – has the Labour-led coalition rising  whilst National’s support is falling;

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On 12 November, I made the following observation;

Polling Decay in Opposition

The longer the Nats remain in Opposition, the  faster their public support will erode. Post 2008, Labour’s polling continued to plummet, whereas National’s ascendancy continued to build on it electoral success…

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The longer National stays in Opposition, the further it’s public support will fall. It is hard to imagine that it’s election night result of 44.4%  will be maintained to the next election in 2020.

In short, the Nats risk growing irrelevancy the longer they stay out of government.

It’s taken faster than I thought possible, but the first post-election poll – from Roy Morgan – has the Labour-led coalition rising  whilst National’s support is falling;

In November support for the newly elected Labour/NZ First/Greens Government was 54.5% (up 6% since early October) ahead of National/Act NZ on 41% (down 5.5%) with minor parties outside Parliament attracting the remaining 4.5% of support.

  • Support for Labour/NZ First is at 44.5% (up 7% since early October), a slight increase from their election result of 44.1% while coalition partners the Greens are on 10% (down 1%).
  • Support for National is at 40.5% (down 5.5%) and down 3.95% from their election result of 44.5% while their right-wing colleagues Act NZ are stuck unchanged on 0.5%.

Hence why National’s chief party strategist, shit-stirrer, and head-kicker – Steven Joyce has been so vocal lately. His on-going carping about the new government is a desperate attempt for his party to stay relevant.

The longer the Coalition has to implement it’s reforms and fix up thirty years of neo-liberal mis-management, the harder it will be for the Nats to offer themselves as a viable alternative in 2020 or 2023. Or 2026.

Who would vote for a party whose nine years in office saw nothing of any practical value except a cycleway (that failed to deliver promised 4,000 new jobs) and bloated house-values for a minority of middle class property-owners in Auckland and Wellington?

Who would vote for a party whose former Dear Leader smiled and waved his way through eight years in office; who bullied a powerless waitress; wasted $26 million on a pointless referendum; and left a legacy of Kiwi families living in cars, garages, or crammed into mouldy, delapidated housing?

And then there’s this;

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rivers too polluted to even swim in.

Nine years of National has proven to be an expensive exercise  in futility for this country.

But more so thirty years of a dogmatic neo-liberal experiment which has failed on almost every level (unless you are the 1% or an Auckland property owner).

TV3’s ‘The Nation‘  on 25 November emphasised the grim problems we face, as the entire episode was taken up with the socio-economic problems faced by Northlanders.

That one, single, episode was award-winning journalism. It was Reality TV unlike the inane bullshit we get from “The Block“, “Home Improvement“, “Survivor Whatever/Wherever“, “The Bachelor/ette“, “My Kitchen Cooks“, etc, etc, et-bloody-cetera.

It made for grim watching and deserves to be re-broadcast at prime time.

It is against this back-drop that National’s strategists should understand one thing very clearly: people’s expectations over the last three decades have been low. The pressing social and economic problems we face have been accepted with a shrug from a sizeable chunk of the voting population.

It was presented for a generation that this was as good as it gets.

But if Labour, NZ First, and the Greens can prove that a better alternative exists – then watch National’s poll rating plummet even further. The Roy Morgan Poll gave us a hint of this;

Government Confidence increased substantially during November after New Zealand First chose to form Government with the Labour Party installing Jacinda Ardern as New Zealand’s new PM.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating jumped 15.5pts to 146.5pts in November (the highest for nearly eight years since January 2010 early in the reign of Prime Minister John Key) with 66.5% of NZ electors (up 8% from October) saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ cf. 20% of NZ electors (down 7.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The Nats are on borrowed time. Their relevancy will continue to diminish.

And it is when the Right have their backs against the wall that they will be most dangerous.

Labour, Green, and NZ First Ministers and MPs need to be on-guard at all times. Stay focused on what needs to be done.

The Roy Morgan poll shows we are on track…

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from: Frank Macskasy <fmacskasy@gmail.com>
to: Sunday Star Times <letters@star-times.co.nz>
date: 26 November 2017
subject: Letters to the editor

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The editor
Sunday Star Times

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The latest Roy Morgan poll must be sending shivers down the backs of the National Party hierarchy.

Not because support for the newly elected Labour-led coalition was up 6% to 54.5%, with National/ACT free-falling 5.5% on 41%.

But because the same poll revealed that “66.5% of NZ electors (up 8%) said NZ is heading in the right direction”.

This is a clear message from the people that they have had enough of a market-led, minimalist-government regime that has seen growing child poverty; widening income/wealth inequality; stagnating wages; corporates rorting the tax system; worsening housing affordability; growing homelessness with entire families living in garages or cars; degraded rivers; and a grossly under-funded health system.

National was quick of the mark cutting taxes in 2009 and 2010, for which they had to borrow from overseas to fund, despite assurances that would not happen.

But not so quick to address the critical problems that really matter to New Zealanders.

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-Frank Macskasy

[name and address supplied]

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References

Wikipedia:  Opinion polling for the New Zealand general election, 2011

Electoral Commission:  2017 General Election – Official Result

Roy Morgan Poll:  New PM Jacinda Ardern drives surge in New Zealand Government Confidence

NZ Herald:  Cycleway jobs fall short

Mediaworks:  New Zealand housing most unaffordable in the world – The Economist

Fairfax media: Prime Minister John Key pulled waitress’ ponytail

Radio NZ:  Flag referendum ‘waste of money’

Fairfax media:  New Zealand’s poor housing is making our children sick

Fairfax media:  ‘Serious pressures’ facing rivers, Government report finds

Mediaworks: The Nation – Turning around the far north

Mediaworks: The Nation – What happened to Moerewa?

Mediaworks: The Nation – Fixing Northland

Other Blogs

The Standard:  Latest Roy Morgan Poll – Labour and Greens surge as National flounders

Previous related blogposts

The Legacy of a Dismantled Prime Minister

“Fool me once”

St. Steven and the Holy Grail of Fiscal Responsibility

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That was then…

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This is now…

 

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= fs =

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11 Comments

  1. CLEANGREEN says:

    Oh Frank,

    You beauty!!!! – what a stirring report you dropped on our breakfast plate for sure.

    Shit the news over on News hub is also going nuts on a leaked report the listener just release thrree days ago that Government kept ‘secret aboout how vital rail is for NZ so the whole bloody dam is breaking now for sure, ooooohhhh eeeeehhhh.

    National is on the run on the new hub right now with National’s Michael Woodhouse is on trying to plug the dam ah ah ha ha ha ha National you are stuffed for sure what a bloody good day roday is.

    Give a big hand to news hub as thay are right on it as Radio NZ and TV one are so quiet about it all??????

    • LOL, ta CG. I’m a firm believer in starting the day with a good breakfast… and a story highlighting National’s naked hypocrisy… One is good for the body, the other the soul.

      And more to come…

      National hypocrisy – the gift that keeps on giving.

  2. CLEANGREEN says:

    “Hence why National’s chief party strategist, shit-stirrer, and head-kicker – Steven Joyce has been so vocal lately. His on-going carping about the new government is a desperate attempt for his party to stay relevant.”

    So true that is Frank, since he fell into his $11.7billion dollar hole he can’t find a way out it seems.

    Judith Collins is giving him a rope to hang himsalf also.

    • More on that $11.7 billion “Hole” shortly, CG. And not in a good way for Joyce…

      • The Other Mike says:

        Can’t wait Frank! I also wonder how many other tax payer funded reports they buried because they made the idiots look bad. Pesky “facts” eh?!

        • CLEANGREEN says:

          I reakon the auditing of National’s nine years is going to throw up some very smelly deals using funds illeegally for sure.

          National were so used of “fiddling the books that they thought no-one was going to look throughnthe books but i think maybe that was why J key left town quioclkly as he must have found out labour may jion with NZF and take over the treasury benches in 2017. well he is right so now the deeop investigations are going on and national are shittling themselves over this as they sit and wait for the call from “inland revenue”

          Ring ring, goes the phone, “Yes it’s Stuart Nash here, Revenue Minister, can you present to my office 9am tomorrow? – Bring a suitcase in case please.”

  3. Samwise says:

    Nats should be on 20%,where they belong. A fringe group with yesterday’s ideas. They are irrelevant already.

  4. Michelle says:

    It won’t be long before we see more cover ups , lies and hidden reports what do you expect from a party of spinners

  5. CLEANGREEN says:

    I reckon the ‘deep auditing’ going on now of National’s nine years minuse of public funds is going to throw up some very smelly deals using funds illegally for sure.

    National were so used of “fiddling the books that they thought no-one was going to look throughnthe books but i think maybe that was why J key left town quioclkly as he must have found out labour may jion with NZF and take over the treasury benches in 2017. well he is right so now the deeop investigations are going on and national are shittling themselves over this as they sit and wait for the call from “inland revenue”

    Ring ring, goes the phone, “Yes it’s Stuart Nash here, Revenue Minister, can you present to my office 9am tomorrow? – Bring a suitcase in case please.”

  6. crissie says:

    When you say 30 years of neoliberalism remember it all started with a Labour Lange Government, followed by a National Bolger Government, then again a Labour Helen Clark Government and again a National Jon-Key Government. The first 2 were in FPP and the last 2 are MMP. We have to thank Jim Bolger for MMP. Now we wait to see what this Labour/NZ1st coalition with Greens can produce my worrying observations are that I can see some old Labour hack working in the background so I am not sure how much it will be different. I can see we will have to work hard to hold them to account.

  7. […] This blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 27 November 2017. […]