What the Specials mean for the election result


As The Daily Blog predicted and pointed out the day after the Election, the Special votes have helped reset the political landscape.

Labour and the Greens went up by one each and National lost 2.

Everything changes from this result.

Labour + NZ First + Greens go from 61, a bare majority that leaves no room for by-elections, to 63 which is a functioning Parliamentary majority and the same majority National have used to govern for 9 years so the claims of instability are simply not valid.

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A combined National-NZ First majority would be 65 compared to the Labour-NZ First-Green 63, so the arguments of legitimacy also become meaningless.

And the total share of vote for the entire right bloc become 45% against the Left bloc vote of 55% so the vote for change is the clear majority.

The reality after the Specials were counted makes all that mainstream media coverage of National as the victors look pretty vapid in the cold light of those stats.

Even Matthew Hooton seems to be suffering from the 5 grief stages of Hootinism as he sees the Right lose their grip on power…

…Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression followed by mass media manipulation.

What has to happen now is Labour strategists need to take NZ First policy and Green policy and weave them together with Labour values to create hybrid ideas that provide big vision.

The question is whether or not Labour have the imagination and courage to provide that type of political leadership.

If they can’t, National might win by default.



  1. Is it just me or does any one else believe that Hooten is quite deranged?

    If Winston could just please go left, then it could well be the end of Hooten.

    • Hooton is deranged and unhinged. msm persist in having this National party mouthpiece front up on tv and radio as a political commentator which I think is outrageous and completely unprofessional. Would like to see Hooton and a number of National party apologists within the media gone. The complicit media in NZ have a lot to answer for imo.

  2. You’re not alone Bert,a week prior to the election Hooten was so sure National would loose the election due to the MSM desire to change the government, absolutely delusional.
    I feel he needs some form of metal health support, a very depressing, unhappy fellow.
    If Winston doesn’t go left,then it may be the end of Winston and NZF.

  3. Hooton is just another of that group of aging white males in denial of the necessity for economic, environmental and societal change

    Old ‘cobbers’ past there use by date.

    • Yes, Hooten is a person whom only has interest in himself, not others, so is the perfect fit for National.

  4. Labour-Green simply MUST convince Winston to go to the ball with them.
    Why? Because there won’t be a second chance.
    One of the memes being seeded online is the notion that somehow Jacinda needs another 3 years to ‘mature’, like some sort of wine or cheese. Apparently then she would arise in 2020, blow away the Nat-NZFirst coalition, and lead us all the Land of Milk & Honey. As an aside, you could say we already have the former, but the drop in bee numbers make the latter unlikely 🙁
    However, that is utter Billshit. It simply gives the Nats Dirty Politics machine 3 whole years to well and truly bury her reputation. Look how easily they deflated Jacindamania enough in the short space of two weeks to keep themselves in the frame for perpetuating their grip on power.
    That crazy couple of weeks, when she assumed the mantle of Labour leadership and suddenly became NZ’s new Selfie Queen, drawing huge crowds & completely reinvigorating Labour’s campaign – that new kid on the block effect can only happen once. And it’s either enough to tilt this election, or its not. By 2020, she will have been tarred and feathered by the same gutter tactics that have been successfully used on Goff, Shearer, Cunliffe, Little, Turei, in fact ANY political, scientific or social critic of the Nazional machine.
    Any bad news coming from the next 3 years of a Nat-NZ First coalition sees the Nats with a ready-made excuse: “Oh, things wouldn’t have turned out like this if we hadn’t had to compromise to NZ First”. This can & will be applied to anything that diminishes them in the publics eyes.
    There are folk promoting the notion that a Nat-NZ First coalition is doomed to failure and Labours election to the Govt benches in 2020 is a lay down misere.
    But has not the last decade taught them a valuable lesson? The Natz have a vast, well-funded network – a far reaching machine that can easily flood the media with any number of memes, dead cats and outright lies. Easily enough to bedazzle the average Kiwi (well 40% + anyways) and return them to power time and again.
    There are no second chances. It’s now or never. Too much is at stake. Another 3 years of business as usual will mean the only force for change by the 2020’s will be the (by then obvious even to the most ignorant gNat) effects of climate change. And another invaluable 3 years to prepare us for that certainty will have been wasted.
    For all our sakes Winston, make the correct choice please!

    • quicksilver – there is one thing you left out where national is concerned – they also have the asian votes on their side and by 2020, at the current rate of allowing them through the open back door, national would easily win in a massive landslide!

    • One of the memes being seeded online is the notion that somehow Jacinda needs another 3 years to ‘mature’, like some sort of wine or cheese.

      The next time repeats that crap just ask them how long John Key spent in Parliament before he became PM.

      • I believe the comment was about age and life experience rather than years in parliament.
        37 is young to lead any country.
        The Labour party obviously think so too or they wouldn’t have had Annette King holding her hand or Sir Michael in the mix.

        • 37 is young to lead any country.

          I prefer to place weight on her political experience than upon such received wisdom.

          Adern has spent three terms in parliament and was active in the political arena for a significant period before that.

          Key was parachuted in by back room manipulators barely in time to serve two terms before the 2008 election. He spent 23 months as leader of the opposition, the only rpolitical ole in which his pre-election experience exceeds Adern’s.

          As to the King/Cullen insinuations, the intelligent use of experienced people isn’t something to be derided.

        • 37 is young to lead any country.

          And yet, Patrick, Key was even less experienced when he took over the reigns of the National Party – and a few months later was Prime Minister.

          Gender wouldn’t enter into it, would it?

          You can’t pick on her intellect, political experience, integrity, etc, so you focus on her age.

          That kinda indicates you haven’t really got much else.

          • Frank,
            you are not understanding what I said, possibly purposely, but I don’t know,
            Take a medium sized NZ company of say 250 staff.
            it would be most unusual for a GM, with no real experience of that company or business to be appointed after 3 years as they want the company to go forward.
            I want this country to go forward
            NZ has 4.5 million people.
            Don’t focus on Key – he was much older as was Lange, Kirk, Nordmeyer, Nash et all,
            And don’t focus on sex – totally irrelevant.
            I was focusing entirely on age and previous experience and I stand by what I said.
            Perhaps you were wise beyond your years at 37 but I wasn’t – most would probably say at 71 I”‘m still not.
            I voted National this time but if their leader was 37 years old and Andrew hadn’t been rolled I would have voted for him.
            It’s not all about about politics for me – I want a PM
            with maturity.
            Don’t care either Labour or National.
            Perhaps your political leanings make you lose sight of any reasonable views. Sad
            But didn’t you vote Greens anyway?

            • …I believe the comment was about age and life experience….
              ….Don’t focus on Key – he was much older as was Lange, Kirk, Nordmeyer, Nash et all,


              What exactly did Key’s age and life experience amount to?, aside from spending his adult life gaming the financial system for personal gain.

              • It occurs to me that Patrick is pursuing a right-wing narrative to undermine Jacinda Ardern. Repeat the lie/narrative often enough and it takes hold. Dirty politics at it’s most subtle.

            • Patrick, unfortunately, I understand your agenda all too well at parroting the dirty politics narrative about Ardern.

              But case in point, Mark Zuckerberg was 20 when he launched Facebook.

              Steve Jobs was 21 when he co-founded Apple.

              Your admission that you are a National voter (no surprise there) explains why you are parroting the age/experience denigration on Ardern. The same theme is widespread on right-wing forum.

              It is a personal attack done by anonymous trolls like you because she is a threat to the National party.

        • No Patrick it is in reference to Ardern having more parliamentary experience than John key did when he became PM. If you had of watched the extremely capable Jacinda during the campaign you would know in an instant, like the Labour party do, that Jacinda doesn’t need people to hold her hand and like all leaders they have advisers that they can trust, so why do you think that is a bad thing? key and Bill have their people with them too.

          • agree 100% Louis also another skill Jacinda has is she is a very good communicator unlike bill and john how they stutter and splutter and speak poor english absolutely appalling and their voices are unpleasant to the ear

          • Yes and neither are doing very well.
            D Trump has the years but he’s an idiot which was plain to see well before the campaign.
            I stand by what I say.
            I believe 37 is too young to mix it with the the worlds big boys.
            Nothing to do with sex or politics.

            • “37 is too young” only because you’re targetting a left-wing leader, Patrick. Some people have more political nous at 37 than others at twice the age. Your obsessiveness over Ardern suggests to me you understand her meteoric rise all too well and is a threat to your neo-liberal paradigm.


              Long may it continue.

              • Don’t be silly Frank and stop being so grumpy.
                I voted National this time but certainly haven’t always voted for them.
                It happens to be my personal opinion and it has absolutely nothing to do with “denigrating” Ardern as I’m sure she will make a fine PM in the future – and perhaps now, but it is concerning that her advisors are retired Labour MP’s.
                Would feel much more comfortable if she felt she could have current MP’s as advisors.
                The thing to remember Frank, is that it doesn’t matter what you or I think – and you are entitled to your opinions just as I should be.
                The only one that counts is Winston and yes, I think he is too grumpy old to be PM or deputy too
                Problem is anyone who has a view that differs from yours you attack like a starved Rottweiler with a hangover.
                As for me targeting a left wing leader – rubbish. She doesn’t seem particularly left wing anyway.
                And undermining her? Come on!
                And as for your comment about gender I love and respect women.
                I even married one.

              • “My neo-liberal paradigm.”
                There you go again with your slogans.
                And if you bothered to read what I said previously….I voted national this time but if the leader of the Nats was 37 would have voted for Andrew – if he hadn’t been rolled.
                I don’t have an obsessiveness over Adhern – that’s the sort of thing that gets you arrested.
                Frank, I don’t have a particular political agenda like you and my comments often have nothing to do with politics at all which does get boring.
                I had a heart bypass 17 years ago. Frank, you really should lighten up or you tou might find yourself on the table too.

                • Gee Patrick you are showing your nasty side now. I suggest you need to settle down and stop being so patriarchal. Good on you for voting for gnats that was your choice but under the MMP system its all about who can get more than 60 not who got the most seats. Now the gnats have brought in over 70 thousand immigrants. How many of them to you think voted for them according to Mike Williams who studied the voting breakdown ‘many’ Now this is they very reason why many NZers are opposed to too much immigration who does it actually benefit particularly when it is not well planned or targeted. And who does it hurt the most.
                  The gnats have just as much chance as the Labour block of running this country. But to me they are showing they are so desperate to rule they are prepared to throw whatever principles they have left (and they don’t have much) out the window now is this the leader and government you voted for. Id rather have Jacinda even though she is the same age as my daughter. I believe she has already proven herself and our country is in a mess after 9 years of selling, slashing, cutting and all for what patrick?

                  • If The Winston picks her she will initially have my backing as have all previous PM’s of whatever persuasion.
                    You have to give everyone the benefit of the doubt – although I don’t see much of that on this blog.
                    Showing my nasty side!
                    Give me a break!
                    I am usually polite but Frank loves calling me names and sticking inappropriate labels on me.
                    He called me “President of the Flat Earth Society” merely because I demurred that the Port Hills fires were climate change related (Broken overhead wiring setting scrub alight and a second fire deliberately lit don’t qualify for climate change in my book)
                    He has also called me anti Muslim – notwithstanding the fact that awe have employed a Muslim family for the last 29 years.
                    Called me a fuckwit just because I held a different view on Castro than he did.
                    I could go on but I think you have the picture.
                    So I don’t think it out of order if I have a crack back at him occasionally.
                    I feel sorry for Frank. He is very passionate about his beliefs which I respect but he doesn’t give anyone else the same respect and because all this consumes him he doesn’t seem to have a life outside blogging.
                    I live in a developing SE Asian country 5 months of the year which gives me a different perspective on life and also keeps me sane.
                    There are many who would question that last sentence.

                    • I cannot recall ever calling you a “fuckwit” Patrick. It is not usual terminology I use. (Perhaps the moderators can search the comments data-base and confirm this?)

                      My regards to your colleagues in the Flat Earth Society.

                      [I was curious as well so I checked the database. I can find no record of Frank using the term ‘fuckwit’ in any of his comments except once, with reference to Wall Street. – Scarletmod]

                    • Frank,
                      it was during the handringing over Castros death.
                      Both you and Martyn had a final crack at me as the string closed down and as I recall you both called me a Fuckwit. Martyn, I recall ended his post with the phrase “are you a fuckwit Patrick?” and my recollection was that you did too. I accept that your language is not as colourful as Martyns.
                      These were “last words” if you like as the string was closed so I had no right of reply.
                      Perhaps they were both deleted.
                      Did you find Martyns Scarlet as my recollection of that phrase is 100%?
                      If you didn’t say that Frank my unreserved apologies.
                      Incidentally, we board the big silver bird tonight after 5 months, mainly in an area of very deprived families, to return to Godzone.
                      It has its faults but it’s the best place with the best people I know.

                    • Frank,
                      I should have added something,but didn’t as I don’t really like blowing my own trumpet.
                      Have changed my mind as it is probably important for you to understand.
                      We own a restaurant with one third owned by our local partner just outside the zone where around 150 thousand locals have been evacuated to pretty basic camps.
                      The area relys almost 100% on tourism.
                      There are now virtually no tourists so dive companies restaurants – including ours – have closed through zero business.
                      Most employees have lost their jobs with no ongoing income.
                      Our 11 Hindu employees are on full salary this month and thereafter on half salary for as long as it takes for events to return to normal, be that 6 months or longer, by using retained earnings belonging to us and our partner,
                      I don’t think real right wingers would take this socialist approach.

    • I was guilty of the 3 year meme.

      I worried Jacinda might be overwhelmed by the nasty Nats machine, and thought Winston as DP would help deal with some aspects of this. (I didn’t consider waiting three years, as people’s lives are at stake)

      However, now I see the left as having collective co-operative wisdom to replace self interested actions.

      We have had government who sees people as dispensible, the final act of a “Throw away culture” Surely we will not continue with that??

  5. It could have been so different.


    Instead of having to make concessions to an opportunist liar and racist, which would move the whole political centre of this country to the Right.

    Unfortunately, repeated recent history shows that the Labour Party would rather deal with Winston Peters and NZ First, than the Greens, or Mana, or the Maori Party.

    An barring that, hand the country over to National.

    By deliberately going out of their way to destroy the Mana and Maori Parties the Labour Party has effectively handed the country over to National and New Zealand First.

    The question is whether or not Labour have the imagination and courage to provide that type of political leadership.

    Martyn Bradbury

    Unfortunately this question was answered long before the specials or any other votes were ever counted.

    ….in pushing for a personal vote in the Waiariki electorate, when elsewhere Labour’s primary focus was on the party vote, Coffey has lost the Left seats that would have supported a Jacinda Ardern government, and given a seat to National. He didn’t just knock the Māori Party out of Parliament; he knee-capped a likely coalition partner.

    Marama Fox makes no bones about it: the Māori Party would have teamed up with Labour; their members wanted a change of government. “We as a party would have gone back to our members to decide, and from what I know they were leaning left,” she explains.

    Just three hours after Ardern was named leader, Māori Party president Tuku Morgan issued a statement: “Māori people throughout the country are telling me they want our party to work with Labour if it’s in a position to form a government after September 23.”

    Speaking a week before the election, Ardern was challenged on why she had been supporting Coffey so aggressively in the Waiariki electorate.

    “Tāmati is a great candidate,” she replied. “Of course we’re supporting him; of course we’re supporting all our candidates in the Māori seats. We support them to win. Whatever then we’re delivered with after the election that’s when we cross that bridge.”

    If she woke up on Sunday morning after election day and Labour and the Greens were just a couple of seats short of a majority, she was asked, how seriously would she regret rebuffing olive branches from the Mana and Māori parties?

    “Look,” she retorted, “if we are delivered after the election a make-up of people who share our values we have those conversations. But, the Māori Party is contesting those seats hard and so is Labour. We want the best representatives possible in those seats and of course we back our candidates to do that.”

    The fact is, by turfing out Māori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell, the voters of Waiariki may have sacrificed Labour’s chance at leading a government. When special votes were counted yesterday, National had more seats than Labour and the Greens put together. But if Flavell had held on, the Left bloc would be in a 55-seat tie with National today – and Bill English would have no “moral authority” to demand to lead the next government.

    Fox says Labour showed a lack of vision, ignoring arrangements that could have seen their Māori MPs in Parliament via the list, joined by hard-left Mana Party leader Hone Harawira in Te Tai Tokerau and the Maori Party back in Waiariki. “It was short-sighted of Labour,” she says.

    • Fox said a lot of things but I disagree about going back with Labour. If anyone saw Dame Tariana Turia interviewed, it was absolutely clear of her support of the Maori Party going with National. Labour were still being described as treacherous over the Foreshore and Seabed saga.

      Winston has one choice, if he goes with National, N.Z. First will end up like the Maori party and after all, it was National trying to destabilise N.Z. First vote by leaking Winston’s super overpayment, of that, I have no doubt.

      • ” Labour were still being described as treacherous over the Foreshore and Seabed saga.”


        Bert, are you claiming that Labour weren’t treacherous to Maori over the seabed and foreshore?

        If you are, then you are in denial.

        Bert, Labour were treacherous over the seabed and foreshore. And not just to Maori, but to all New Zealanders, and indeed the planet.

        Labour’s collusion with the foreign deep sea oil and gas drillers and the seabed miners began before Labour launched their racist attack to extinguish Maori rights to take legal action over the exploitation of these resources.

        That this attack was racist is undeniable. No other race or culture in this country has ever had special legislation passed to prevent them taking legal action.

        The nature of the propaganda launched against Maori was also undeniably racist. Claims were made that Maori would prevent Pakeha accessing the beaches. And other racist claims, that Maori were trying to do a take over, or were just looking for money, from compensation claims against the oil companies and mining companies.

        Maori guardianship or Kaitiaki over the seabed and foreshore protected all New Zealanders from the dangers of seabed mining and deep sea oil drilling.

        The fact that Jacinda Ardern has stated that Labour is still fanatically determined to continue with supporting these rapacious technologies convinces, me that New Zealanders need to have the layer of legal protection that native title gives provides us against greedy foreign companies and their bought and sold politicians.

        • You know the Maori party were equally labeled as betrayers for supporting key’s 2011 Marine and Coastal Area act that repealed the Seabed and Foreshore, right Pat? Why is it no one ever mentions that and that foreign deep sea oil and gas drillers are having a field day under National with the Maori party sitting in their tent. Fanatical hypocrisy and double standards springs to mind.

          • Agree 100% Louis with the gnats having a field day. And there are many recent examples of this field day continuing South Taranaki dredging for Iron sand approved by the EPA 2017 and Karangaheke Goldmine in the Coromandel with protesters being arrested all this after thousands of kiwis marched in Auckland against these very issues.

        • Labour have admitted already that the decision over the Foreshore and Seabed issue was a mistake and apologised. That’s all they can do, what is it that you want, blood?

    • Even Martyn Bradbury says the Maori party killed itself off. Please stop shitting on the decision that Maoridom made and stop blaming Labour for the demise of Maori/Mana parties, they did that to themselves. Clearly Fox’s bitter and twisted insults and lies against Labour during the campaign and Flavell admitting after the election that he thought Bill deserved another 3 years show the Maori party’s true intentions which were to support and return a National government to power. Thankfully the voters very much worse off in the last 9 years with Maori party sitting in National’s tent saw through the pretense and voted accordingly and now Labour has the largest representation of Maori of any party in history.

      • Rubbish, Maoridom have spoken and obviously did not think that. Hone hitching his wagon to the Maori party arm of the National party was always going to be a losing proposition.

      • I liked a lot of what Hone had too say,but sometimes he went to far and lost a lot of cross cultural support. To be successful as a politician you really need to appeal to more than 15% of the populace. Some of his public comments and language was I feel offensive.
        Too much anger and hatred for me.

    • Good one Mike,

      Even English should have suggested all National voters vote for Green or labour to and that would’ve fixed the wagon right away.

      Labour + NZ First + Greens go from 61, a bare majority that leaves no room for by-elections, to 63 which is a functioning Parliamentary majority and the same majority National have used to govern for 9 years so the claims of instability are simply not valid.

      Winston will set a time bomb inside the dying corpse of the National Patty and destroy them all one would hope.

      He still has several scores to settle with that rotting carcass before he is through as the National lineup .

      Today was English,Joyce, Brownlee, Bennett, Egleson ect’ and that shows they are throwing all their ‘might’ at Winston since they are so freaked out that he is wanting to settle some old scores.

      • @ CleanGreen.
        I have this wonderful vision of the current ‘negotiations’ between Winston and that power-hungry motley assortment of characters you listed.
        Imagine Winston, sitting there with a stick, and issuing commands like “sit”, “roll-over” and so on, whilst these sell-their-own-mother-for-power types obey his every command, all to curry favour! 🙂
        “C’mon Gerry, sit up and beg! Good doggie”.

  6. It was a deliberate policy of Labour and (especially) the Greens to get unregistered voters to register and vote at the same time, as this was the first election where this was permitted.
    The specials results show just how successful they were in getting the young first time voters to vote centre-left.
    Unfortunately it wasn’t enough in itself but they can build on the success for next time.

  7. In preparation, I’m salting and peppering my potato hat for the eating if peters doesn’t go with national.

  8. Hooten is just a desperate Natz gobshite full of hot air, whose useless utterances mean diddly squat in the grand scheme of things! Poor lad.

    I could be wrong here, but Winston being Winston will stretch his decision out to the max, right to the very end, to satisfy himself, devouring all the attention being lavished upon him at present!

    Oh well, maybe he’s entitled to as this could be his last Hurrah.

  9. What a pathetic rant Pat O’Dea, the Maori party destroyed themselves, they did nothing in 9 years with national except totally taxed them out of housing, so no sympathy, their is plenty of descent Maori MP’s in labour, NZF, an the Greens to change the well being of Maor.

    • True that DJ and lets not forget the Maori party supported National’s punitive welfare reforms, selling off state housing etc. Fox’s sudden embrace of “Enough talk lets build houses” after ignoring the plight of so many for 9 years fools no one and if she thinks this will redeem her politically, shes dreaming there too.

  10. Jacinda has articulated the vision; an economy that serves the people, not vice versa. The policy compatibilities are there, as pointed out by both James and Jacinda on election night, and since. With the specials going the way most of us predicted, the prospects for a red-green-black government are looking stronger than ever.

  11. Interesting to see Richard Prebble on TV trying to denigrate NZ 1st and promote the ‘moral authority’ paradigm (whatever that means). Mr Prebble like many in the media still talking in cliches about ‘one or two party majorities,’ ‘tails wagging dogs’ ‘country held to ransom’, people in limbo’ etc. appears to be still living in the past FPP era and hasn’t caught up with the 21st century. By the way a tail is an integral part of a dog and does anyone really feel ‘held to ransom?’ With only half of 1% of the vote here’s nothing ‘moral’ or ‘authoritative’ about Mr Prebble’s ACT party.

    • Every single time anyone mentions ‘moral’ or ‘ethical’ to do with National just think recently to Joyce, English and Adams.

      If they are saying someone in another party lacks those qualities or they grant those qualities to the National party I think a reasonable, rational response is to say “Fuck off.”

  12. Some considerations made a week and a half ago:

    On foreign relations I note a strong pro Russia trade and pro Israel position in NZ First policy.

    But how relevant will that be?

    Generally, much of NZ First or Winston First policy aligns well with Labour, and even to some degree with the Greens.

    So the negotiations Winston and his colleagues have with the Nats, are they only done for the purpose of having a few pieces to bargain with, when talking to Labour, suggesting they must come up with a better deal?

    All else is a worry, I think.

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