The right wing corporate media’s propaganda campaign against Labour reached new heights of absurdity last night with the latest TV One Poll.
Apparently it’s all over for Jacinda, apparently National will romp home, apparently cows don’t shit in our rivers making them too poisonous to swim in.
Look at the results…
…Labour + Green + NZ First beat National. That’s the reality, yet the spin is that Bill English is suddenly god’s gift to right wing political pundits!
After the sustained attack by the corporate mainstream media, the fact Jacinda have only slipped 7 points is nothing short of a miracle.
The rich elites who have National to thank for making their economic interests Government policy are doing everything in their power to convince the democratic majority that we will lose and that it is hopeless.
Don’t dare let those fuckers do that to you!
This election is ours to win my friends, don’t allow this guy to decide the election…
…we are better than that!
Vote today! Take a friend and vote tomorrow! Get the family together and vote on Saturday! Do not allow National’s fear campaign on tax and their bare faced fucking lies rob us of the hope of a better way for our Government to treat the weakest and most vulnerable amongst us!
We all collectively deserve better than a 4th fucking term of these arseholes!
To the breach dear friends – TO THE BREACH!
agree 100%
And don’t forget that the margin of error makes this poll completely meaningless.
Oh and the undecideds weren’t included YET AGAIN. So if people were undecided between GP or LP, didn’t get counted.
Oh, and because it’s illegal to ‘exit poll’ in NZ (i.e. ask who people voted for), we only get the results from those who haven’t YET voted. I.e., older, more traditional/conservative, status-quo-prone.
And as Martyn says, even with all that crap to consider – what an awse result for Jacinda!
Thank you Roy I’ll put the razor away.
Also many Maori wouldn’t have been polled and they are voting Labour in this election. How do I know 1. many don’t have landlines 2. many don’t have internet access 3. talk is out there on the streets 4. Maori have younger demographics
They make allowances for the fact that they only phone landlines apparently, of course I have no idea how this works. Some do phone cellphones also. Roy Morgan phones celllphones.
I was interested to read what Gareth Morgan said:
When I ask the question in the town hall shows I do every night, ‘Who’s got a landline?’, about 10 to 15 per cent,” he said. “What’s wrong with these polling companies?”
and this is UMR 2014 – old but still interesting
But Mr White says pollsters need to get a representative sample and UMR keeps making calls until they do. It’s all very technical, but in essence the pollsters adjust their results to take into account the fact they can’t reach mobile-only households.
“We use quotas and weights, which take everything back to census,” says Mr White.
Well said Martyn – and thank you for YOUR efforts this election
Yep folks, – time to bung up the hole of Stephen Joyce and tell him in no uncertain terms that the era of Dirty Politics is coming to an abrupt end for him.
This election.
While those polls are one thing, after the leaders debate there was a poll consisting of 5000 people (5 times more than on the phone) that put Labour well ahead of National.
I just see those landline polls as possibly rigged and done in National strong electorates to try discourage left wing voters from voting at all. I think this is the same strategy that has been used in previous elections.
not to mention people who won’t talk to pollsters
yes Mark just like the media are doing some false reporting its scaremongering
Really? Can I get a link to it, got to see this…..
From memory, I think it’s, “once more unto the breach dear friends”, and I do like words that ring well, and politicians who tell the truth.
Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics revelations 2014 were shocking, but people just didn’t seem to care – or maybe NZ’ers admire dodgy liars, dunno.
This election is much worse because English, Joyce, Bennett and co’s lies have been open, and blatant, and sustained, and juxtaposed with English’s ‘devout Catholic’ cloak, pretty sick; furthermore, again it is National who play dirty, – they’re the eels writhing in the dried-out river beds, and we, as a country, very much need to have them slink back under the mud and stay there.
I’m with you Martyn. Go Jacinda and James and Winston et al.
Yes Patricia; – with you here all.
Can’t see Winnie the Pooh having a bar of the greens but all the best to Princess Stardust and the crew.
the Greens are the ones who have thrown most poo at Winnie ( he hasnt thrown any as far as I have seen)….so for the sake of a Labour Left coalition …they may just have to eat it
There are simply too many variables in these stupid polls.
They admit to a 3% wobble but the reality is that it is way more than that.
If the group polled is not representative of the NZ voting public how can the results have any real meaning at all?
Remember the polls before Brexit and the American presidential votes? Remember how wildly inaccurate there were? Nobody could understand why. Hah!
That, dear boy, is why I pay these polls no heed whatsoever.
Oh yeah, and ‘coz I’ve already voted…
the method is flawed using land lines who has a landline again ?
Thank you, Martyn, I needed something positive after this poll. Feeling very dispondant at the moment.
buck up man, it’s a battle for power and we have to exercise ours!
It’s just part of the territory. The right plays for power, the left for principle. You got the tougher draw, but it makes you a nicer person :).
Are we going to have the charade of taking down signs etc on Friday despite 200k+ having voted already?
Just remember this poll is NOT accurate and that this is all pro-National psychological warfare…
It’s there to win or lose.
Time for young people to stand up.
Meanwhile I can’t imagine anyone watching Bill English carry on with the Trump philosophy of “lie, then stick to it like glue” could feel other than disgust. Ditto his justification of his inaccurate claims that Labour would put up income and endless other taxes by saying “well we’re putting them down”.
I though Jacinda handled herself well in the debate – as good as I’ve seen her. The question remains: who is there to listen?
The Colmar Brunton poll shows that all the polling companies are still trying to get their heads around the demise of universal landline phones.
Suddenly nothing is random and you are forced to rely on demographics that become more slippery, the more you try to use them.
Consequently, even “margins of error” have to be taken with a grain of salt, while I suspect the poll results here are more about a guilty system-tweeking than some seismic evolution of public opinion.
That said, Jacinda could probably have handles the tax working group thing better, but you win and lose with a younger candidate.
Experience might have helped her, but experience can also trap you in the past.
That is why there must be changes of government from time to time, whatever you think of policy. Renewal and new energy can’t be faked. Or so you would hope.
6 weeks out from polling day all poll results should be banned from being publicly announced and contained for the purpose of internal political party needs only.
It is a farce that we have media organisations run and staffed by high net worth individuals and reporters, (who I would love to know what percentage of their wealth portfolio has been and remains currently with in property and whom stand to yet gain through capital appreciation of their multiple houses when they end up flicking them), so obviously espousing National Party policy whilst also chipping away at undermining Jacinda Ardern, commissioning “Polls” that have seemed like a dime a dozen this campaign.
Yea+++
I absolutely agree, I think it is really unhelpful. The spin the media put on it everytime there is a new poll. People vote for winners because they can’t be bothered about the policy.
First question Hosking asked English last night was, Bill, why are you winning ?
Opps, Wrong.
Under MMP, 46% is not winning at all.
So it was a stupid question.
And as it stands , National may not have many friends to call on any way.
And I cant see Peters going with the Nats, unless English is prepared to play second fiddle to Peters.
and that is the point Michael making people feel despondent and not want to vote
Martyn you are a rock,
We wil vote tomorrow and get rid of this lying desperately corrupted Government that hate orinary kiwis with a fervour the are suck very sick invididuals and we must reject them.
We will have a labour greens/NZ First Government for sure as most people have that feeling now of a deperate need to ‘compromise’ to get the same coalition together that we had during helen clarks era 1999.
We will pray hard for our change that is needed.
‘Do not allow National’s fear campaign on tax and their bare faced fucking lies rob us of the hope of a better way for our Government to treat the weakest and most vulnerable amongst us!’
Not One Major Poll or Analyst Predicted Trump Defeating Clinton
Just a few hours before polling, a Reuters/Ipsos poll said there was a 90% chance of a Clinton victory. An Upshot poll published in the New York Times said Clinton had an 85% chance of winning. The Washington Post on November 7 said “the overall map still clearly favors Hillary Clinton”. Emerson College Polling predicted a victory for Clinton, giving her 323 electoral votes and saying she would win in all the swing states except Ohio and Iowa – and while they were right about Ohio and Iowa, they were wrong about pretty much everything else. The Huffington Post presidential forecast model predicted the same number of electoral wins for Clinton, adding that she had a whopping 98.2% chance of winning. The Los Angeles Times gave her 352 electoral votes on their final electoral map, though a poll they conducted four months ago showed Trump leading.
Not one major poll said a Trump victory was in the offing. Wall Street analysts also predicted a Clinton victory.
Data analyst and founder of PredictWise David Rothschild was also pretty confident less than 24 hours ago, though his number changed continuously after counting started. He had said Clinton had an 89% chance of winning.
Change OR
3 more years of belching, farting and shitting our way to prosperity.
An emotive appeal, I fully understand, and would generally support. Go and vote, dear people, those not enrolled yet, go and enroll tomorrow and vote tomorrow, thanks!
Every vote counts, whether rain or shine, make that bit of an effort, as otherwise we get three more years of the same stale madness, fake economic performance, lies, cover ups, we will get more poor live in cars, more homeless, more renters living in over priced, damp and cramped homes, people not getting urgently needed medical treatment, and so forth.
Sadly, most seem firmly locked into the neoliberal machinery, busy counting their few beans they earn, and the few ones they may put into KiwiSaver. They fear losing beans and morsels, while the elite celebrate, drink Moet and Chandon, prime liquors, wines and beers in their clubs, and laugh about the dumb workers they employ doing the hard yarns.
This time the future of NZ is at stake, as if this election is lost, the Nats will make sure their changes will become totally irreversible, and most will be nothing but servants and slaves, to put up with anything.
They even have systems in place that break the law daily, and get away with it:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/97051893/msd-faked-names-and-signatures-in-benefit-reviews
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/339893/acc-admits-its-staff-also-use-pseudonyms
Come on, put an end to this shit, thanks!
The margin of error is 3.1% says it all really.
So the idiot holding the placard has 8 children and Bill has 6. Given all the hoopla about having too many children and being personally responsible, one has to ask, what were these two Catholics thinking, or should I ask were they in fact thinking with their brains?
And remember the poor children or should I say rich?
To Bill, former finance minister $0 income tax – $0 income tax = $0 income tax. At what point does it become – $1000 income tax. Or is it I once had 450 texts and now they’re all gone!
Not just the TV One spin.
Do anyone see the full page litany of lies from the Tax Payers Union in the Dominion Post this week?
Tax Payers Union = rightwing money hoarders who can’t bear to part with a single cent earned from their corporate speculation activities and would happily see the country slide into the sea as long as their wallets remained full.
What a bunch of National and ACT party boot lickers.
By the way – a joke:
Q: What do you get when you cross a National supporter with an ACT supporter?
A: Pinnochio – a puppet that tells lies.
I went past a whole lot of banner waving National party idiots on a main rd here in CHCH who were part of the Nicky Wagner re election team.
It is a busy road with a steady stream of traffic and very few were tooting support.
As i drove past slowly i shouted out ” you guys are all corrupt ” and there were other people stopping to voice their displeasure at these moronic self serving shits.
Not everyone wants these bastards back for three more years.
Lets pray for a miracle and a major upset for the Tories.
The Shitheads Flock together
The liar who led his fellow farmers (known as Shitheads in NZ) with a banner in Morrinsville had copulated somehow with another liar, named Billy English.
New Zealand Farmers are in fact the twisted and uncivilised shitheads of the NZ Population.
They cause untold destruction of our country, its land, air, and water.
The dishevelled creep holding the despicable banner joined Billy English by phone or whatever and Stevie Joyce too, in smacking a young lady around in her own home town. They obviously are good at it. The stinking animals.
Then into the pub – for more piss. National low life in action.
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