EXCLUSIVE: Whare of Cards meets the Red Wedding – who knifed Andrew Little?

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The NZ Labour Party Caucus

TDB has worked the phones all night and all morning, here is what we understand regarding Andrew Little’s leadership.

Once Matt McCarten was moved as Chief of Staff, forces disgruntled with Little’s performance started moving against Little.

Those forces have leaked UMR research polls to the media and right wing pundits, the move against Little reached its high tide mark over the last few days with the latest round of polling.

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The writing is on the wall now, Grant Robertson’s suggestion Little do that disastrous interview with Corin Dann where he admitted considering standing down will forever be seen as one of the worst blunders of Little’s leadership.

The most likely outcome will be a change of leader because if Andrew tries to fight, that admission  will simply hang over him like a noose.

Jacinda Ardern will  be forced into being Leader and Kelvin Davis will be Deputy after todays Caucus meeting.

Jacinda has had no hand whatsoever in  the move against Little and is genuine in her loyalty. She will claw back voters who the Greens have picked up, appeals to female voters who voted for Key and makes a huge impact on the youth vote.

Kelvin likewise had no hand in moving against Little and he will be the first Maori to ever be Deputy leader of the Labour Party and will give him real muscle against Hone in Te Tai Tokerau.

It’s a powerful team, and has a real chance of winning.

The questions will be:

1 – Will the electorate see this as panic or will they embrace the new team?

2 – Are the forces who have undermined Little and pushed Jacinda into leadership done so to damage Jacinda with an electoral loss and move against her post the election?

3 – Is everyone else comfortable that Patrick Gower and Matthew Hooton seem to destabilise the Labour Leadership each election?

Andrew Little is a good man and would have made an incredibly decent Prime Minister, I believe he has been let down by his advisers and communications team and that once he lost Matt as his backroom head kicker, he was open to undermining by the factions.

The King looks like he’s dead, long live the Queen?

Will Jacinda be a Mother of Dragons or a Lover of Band Wagons? We have 8 weeks to find out.

Left wing politics in NZ is like Game of Thrones but with far more violence and incest.

57 COMMENTS

  1. If Little goes people will be taking their boards down and never putting another Labour Party board up again… EVER!

    …the Party is completely imploding

    it is an EMBARRASSMENT

    ( Adern has more ambition than charisma or ability…she was one of the ABCs….’anyone but Cunliffe’ brigade. Kelvin Davis did Hone Harawira and Mana in…thwarting a Left coalition last Election…he is NOT to be trusted)

    • Yes I agree, embarrising and dumb move. He shouldn’t have deserted the ship at this point in time, it is nuts.

    • Clowns indeed how foolish – this will go down in history as one of the more stupid things Labour has done.

  2. Martyn,

    SADLY, you are probably right.

    I hope Andrew rallies and jumps on a few heads.

    He is however, an honest man, not inclined to shift blame or look for scapegoats.

    No, I am NOT happy that the right wing Gower/Hooten combination,
    backed by so many others, have such effect. Corin Dann being one of them.

    If Andrew chooses to fight, I hope he wins decisively, putting his foot on the dragon of neo-liberal ideals.

    Too much is at stake for NZers.

  3. “let down by his advisers and communications team”

    So who are these people? Can we have some names and faces? The phrase about turkeys voting for an early Christmas comes to mind. I know we have scurrilous right wing media but I cannot believe that the so-called strategists, as well as caucus, can be so selfish, shortsighted and just plain dumb.

    • You’d think these idiot would have learned from the US election or the english one – polls mean nothing.

      All I can say is – more people I know were impressed with Andrew and ‘the young ones’ don’t seem any more impressed with Jasinda. I’m really depressed as my husband and I really need a new government – our public service jobs have become almost unbearable.

  4. “let down by his advisers and communications team”

    So who are these people? Can we have some names and faces?

    I cannot believe anyone could be so dumb this close to an election.

  5. Yep. always the way.

    There was a film ages back about JFK. Garret the lawyer and agent ‘ X’ were sitting on a park bench. Agent ‘ X’ was an ex -CIA intel man. And one of the things he said was that ”small groups of individuals capable of exercising tremendous power to subvert a democracy ”…

    And that’s the principle. Small groups wielding power. Subversive small groups.

    And that’s why there needed to have been a purge a long time back. The reason there wasn’t was to forge a public image of unity. It appears Little managed a form of that , but these neo liberals… these ABC’s will do this to every leader that arises that even smacks of a return to any former social democratic policy’s.

    People need to understand this.

    This is what every Labour leader will be up against.

    The closest analogy I can give to these neo liberals is that of sluggish , bloated semi submerged crocodiles that wait at the waters edge.

    There is no reasoning with them , there is no bargaining, they are treacherous and they will not stop until they kill you ( politically ).

    Therefore there needs to be a cull.

    To make the waters safe.

    It is not a new thing, Kings and Emperors and Presidents have all had to deal with these treacherous wretches before . Its as old as any established order and should never be taken for granted that you have truly won them over to lend you their support.

    They are better off being expelled before they can wreak any damage.

    You will probably find that they will be happy with Kelvin Davis,… for he like the ABC’s ,… is a neo liberal.

    As for Jacinda…being thrown into this,… this only goes to show the lengths of destruction these saboteurs will go in preventing a return to NZ’s previous social democracy.

    And effectively ,… how they have efficiently usurped the democratic wishes of large members of the New Zealand public to suit their own agenda.

    That’s how dangerous treachery and subversion really is.

      • They are not more to the left, you know dam well that Winston will do what he wants when the time comes Winston runs the show no one else, his swan song will to be the PM he’ll make a deal with the Nats where by he will be the PM for the first 18 months and then English again.

      • Red Buzzard, NZ First is no more a “left” party than that Orange Bigot in the White House. Your party’s insistence to re-legalise assault on children proves that.

        You need to stop smoking whatever it is you’re imbibing, it’s messing with your head.

  6. Just what I want as a Labour Party Leader…someone who appeals to female National voters.
    As a potential female Labour voter that makes the Greens look even more attractive.

    More importantly…whatever happens…time for Mike Williams to BE GONE as ‘the voice from the Left’ on RNZ. THe guy is either being used by some faction…or he’s a troublemaker of the most dangerous kind.

    • “I tend to agree with you Mathew”
      He, like others, have an agenda – part of which is to remain the MSN’s talking heads/political rent-a-voices. Another part is that they’re desperate to remain relevant. A bit like that old gnat trout Boag.

    • Yes Mike Williams I thought was disgusting saying Little had to fall on his sword on the radio this morning. He shouldn’t be the commentator from the supposed ‘left’ at all.

    • Add Pagani and all those other clowns to Mike Williams, who are constantly consulted and asked for their views on supposedly ‘left’ policy issues and matters.

  7. Labour has lost sight of the reason it exists, not for political careering but for fighting the good fight. They have totally lost sight of that. I think Grant Robertson is toxic to the party, all smiles but I don’t trust the man. Look at what he did to Cunliffe, now Little. Are Robertson’s minions in the party that retarded to not see thisl? The lower ranked MP’s who actually exhibit Labour values need to revolt and take over the party. I am a Labour member and supporter but I am seriously thinking of pulling the plug and going to the Greens.

  8. Only a couple of hours ago Andrew Little said he would not resign, that was to RNZ reporters at the airport. Now we learn this:
    http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/336241/little-resigns-as-labour-leader

    From that we can draw a conclusion he received a somewhat cold reception at Parliament, from some Labour MPs, as some too far down the list, and some on uncertain seats, will have panicked yesterday when hearing the latest poll results from Reid and UMR.

    So it appears to have been true that last night discussions went viral, and some decided, a circuit breaker is needed, to save Labour from another election disaster. While some continue to support Andrew Little, others do no longer, some never did. We have a caucus again that resembles a bit the former ABC fraction scenario.

    But I fear it is too late for Labour to regain some traction, the drain of support may be stopped, but with all this going on, voters will be turned off. The media played its part again, it seems, in treating politics like a rugby game, where only the strong and pushy get favoured.

    This may well be the new leader:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacinda_Ardern

    Jacinda has of course gathered experience, but has never been in government, not been a minister, and she is still young at 36 or so. I doubt she has sufficient leadership skills to bring and hold together a still divided caucus, where too many are now only in the game to save their seats.

    The media will be all over this, and the coming weeks they will of course question Jacinda Ardern’s leadership abilities, that is if she gets voted in to be leader.

    I guess those wanting progressive change must now in droves vote Greens, as they are more stable and on the up, perhaps able to replace a weakened, reform needing Labour party, and others more conservative need to vote Winston, to perhaps still achieve a change of government. But Winston is unpredictable, so what certainty do we have, it looks grim for the election, they should have all worked together, Labour, Greens and NZ First, to show an alternative for us.

  9. The funny thing about that picture is that the guy who plays Roose Bolton actually kinda looks like Andrew Little.

  10. Good analysis Martyn.
    I too think Andrew Little would have made a good PM, a PM who actually cared about all New Zealand rather than elite portions of it as does the current PM.
    The problem is that New Zealanders have been conditioned by a superficial media into believing that PMs have to have personality, character – to appear on chat shows and radio breakfast shows talking about masturbation and piddling in the shower.
    Andrew won’t lower himself to talk about such puerile rubbish and good for him, except that infotainment fixated sleepy hobbit New Zealanders interpret this as apathy, rather than adhering to standards of good taste.
    You will very shortly see the Nationalphile reaction to Jacinda’s new leadership. The viciousness of the personal attacks will give you National’s real reaction. They will be positively itching to begin the sexual innuendo (always a popular right-wing tactic against a female political opponent) that having a male Labour leader has previously denied them.
    Mike Hosking, well known for his on-air sexists remarks will think all his birthday’s have come at once.
    Please Jacinda, if you appear on a Mike Hosking show, please do the country a favour and give the prick a knuckle sandwich!
    You don’t need to give once to Gower, he looks like someone else did that long ago.

    • ” Please Jacinda, if you appear on a Mike Hosking show, please do the country a favour and give the prick a knuckle sandwich!
      You don’t need to give one to Gower, he looks like someone else did that long ago ”

      L0L0L !

      So true ! , – so bloody true !!!

      • Great way to fundraise sell tickets for the opportunity to give Hosking “the sandwich ” then Hosking would have played his part in paying for the billboard change.

    • I supported Little to the end having been personally involve during his union days, HOWEVER, I agree with Mike, personality wins politics as shown by that “nice Mr Key”. Not one person who voted that pariah in worried about policy and sadly Little lacked political persona. So if we are comparing Jacinda to Bill, well, clearly we should see a change of government!

  11. Matt McCarten loss was totally visible. The Labour messaging has been very weak of late after a very strong start.

    The question is, who are the people who are the traitors in the Labour Party working for National’s neoliberal agenda, making sure that Labour keeps failing and continual undermining of their leader no matter who that is?

  12. Labour’s policy platform is the problem. The tired third-way/neoliberal policies are dead.

    Time for a manifesto like UK Labour’s. Maybe in 3 years…

    • Absolutely Fatty, you hit the nail on the head, they are frightened of their own shadow too frightened to put big bold policies out there, scared of frightening the horses. When Little pulled the plug on capital gains tax I despaired.

  13. Robertson has been No 3-5 since 2008.
    He and his adoring ‘mum’ Annette King were the ones who pushed the idiot Shearer forward to block Cunliffe and the left.
    Little had the departing Cunliffe’s support but triennial to keep Robertson/King sweet….
    Little became embroiled in Wellington tea party games and now we have another leader.

    Get rid of Robertson and King.

    • Pretty much ,… but it doesnt stop there, oh no….

      A purge is a purge ,… and rarely does that simply mean one or two…

      And the good news is,… this latest treachery just might make the demands for that from the members even more strident. It would be nice to see all this treachery and deceit backfire on them.

      Neo liberals belong in either ACT or National these days.

      Not Labour.

  14. Im not interested in any post mortem. I want policy. Policy. Policy. If the policy is the correct prescription I want Jacinda and Kelvin to enunciate it on steroids, to run over the top of any fekwit jornos and hacks with policy policy and “fekk you, ask another question”.

    We can do the post mortems when we are at the Cabinet table.

  15. We have a Green billboard on our front lawn. I’ll be having a Labour one right beside it.

    I’m doing my bit.

  16. There’s a few decent people in the Labour Party and Andrew Little is or was one of them.

    They don’t like the workers’ rights types. Grant Robertson’s Chardonnay identity politics brigade with his deep ties to media including student media and young coniving Labour members rule the day. How sad.

    • Never the less, Jacinda is all good. All the best and sunny days for her and hopefully for New Zealand too as the election quickly approaches.

  17. Grant Robertson has form in rolling leaders, why would Andrew Little listen to him after what happened with Cunliffe? I dont believe that Grant acted alone, and neither do I believe right wing’s favourite Jacinda wasn’t in the know about it either. To do this 2 months out from an election shows there are some in Labour who have never struggled, who care more about themselves and the positions they hold rather than the thousands of Kiwis struggling in poverty and homelessness that they would sabotage the party and people that support it. I dont know how these self serving careerists sleep at night.

  18. Nah sorry – reading a conspiracy into this comedy of fuckups is about 57 bridges too far Martyn. This was all Little’s doing, no one made him do anything much less a TV interview and especially not his crazy talk of resignation on it.

    Little may indeed be a ‘decent man’ I don’t know and it is foolish to suggest that anyone outside his immediate circle of family & friends knows.

    But that is irrelevant, I didn’t like the man’s politics which were neolib to the core and I really didn’t like the side of him revealed by his previous gig where the interests of the union as an organisation were always placed ahead the interest of the membership.
    Worst of all he wasn’t that smart at it, I was talking to a senior longstanding member of the journos union over the weekend and he/she told me that when Little first approached them with an offer to join together, they, the journos thought “bloody good job now we can have a spokesperson for us like the way the police do it; someone who advances the interests of the membership through the media and yet isn’t perceived as as a typical trade union official. The guy seems smart and he should understand that we can help each other – he looks after us, we help him satisfy his rather obvious political ambitions’
    But it didn’t work like that Little just couldn’t meld the advantage of having most of the journos in the country helping him get the message out to work for the journos or himself.

    Of course membership has slipped since those days, the journos union now has record low coverage.

    This is what happened as Labour leader too, yes it is hard to get heard above the noise of the government especially when a big mob on the politics beat are Nat toadies, but Little just didn’t have a clue how to utilise natural allies & contacts and lets face it that skill is a huge part of being a successful leader.

    I am no more sanguine about the new leader and deputy. There has been no real effort by Labour to win back humanists since the Alliance imploded nearly two decades ago. Instead of mourning the loss of half of their former ‘broad church’ – not just a loss from the party but the political scene altogether, the neolib rump has been celebrating the fact that a huge chunk of membership plus more importantly, dedicated party activists have gone for good.
    Yeah, I’m sure electorate meetings are much ‘easier’ without ‘the reds’ but those people that the neolibs so despise were responsible for a lot of Labour’s wins.

    I just cannot think why anyone would vote Labour in 2017 for a change? What change? there is so little difference between Labour & the Nats that the Labour party has to embargo its policies before launch in case the Nats gazump them.

    Nat-lite, who needs it when you can have the real thing with a lot less hassle?
    There are a number of issues for less fortunate kiwis that will have the old Labourites rolling in their graves – the shortage of affordable accomodation is one such thing, but so is worker insecurity of tenure, the ‘on call’ bullshit, abolition of penalties and a host of other awful working conditions that keep kiwis locked in a poverty trap.

    The health service is going down the gurgler – how many people do you know waiting months for ‘urgent’ tests to determine if they have the big C? I know 3 at the moment and that number will stay pretty consistent for a while as people get sick & die or get better. except that the number invariably creeps up – in a year or two it will be 4 no matter which neoliberal wins the chook raffle because the Labour Party has lost its imagination along with its courage.

    Too much time worrying about the costing trap instead of confronting it
    & saying “never you mind, we’ll find the money, why don’t you ask the nats where the money for their crazy corporate underwriting projects comes from?”

    Ok I’ll stop now I could blather on for hours about how the Labour Party is a pallid shadow of a humanist political movement which stopped being socialist a very long time ago, now they aren’t even social democrats. Jacinta appears to be more concerned with people calling her rude names on FB, than she is about the parlous state many kiwis currently find themselves in.

  19. Are there any safe seats left? Which Labour MPs remain to be voted in by a trusting electorate and will creep back into parliament? How well does Labour support its electorate people? It hasn’t been too pretty so far.

    Do they have the systems and the nouse to get any wins or gains for their voters in the next three years?

    How well have we developed our MMP environment inside parliament? Or are we really still playing FPP? Because it looks that way.

    Policy without practicality and the support of the public service plus NGOs is like floral prints on toilet paper. I don’t just want to know there’s money available, that it’s all been costed and it could happen. How will it really be done and delivered? What are the reliable feedback mechanisms? Not the great MSM?!

    All you have to do to understand the cynicism is to look at how well the ‘policy’ of building social housing in Auckland has gone – less than half of the expected 14 000. Great policy: stink-poor delivery. And Labour’s no better, based on previous experience.

    Labour also has a regrettable track record of throwing out working systems so they’re ‘politically correct’ and pleasing to their backers. All at once. Overnight – and it takes a long time for the waves to settle to calm in the tea cup. Wasted time.

    It’s not their financial management that causes concern – it’s that meddling middle class paternalism and sheer lack of administrative competence. They cannot resist digging up the seeds to look for sprouts, or giving something their tender touch. And, despite all the years and university degrees – they still haven’t learned how to be decent figureheads and work with the back-room people.

    So now Cunliffe and Little have gone to pastures new or wilderness. We can only hope those pests in the gang of ABC have finished. There’s no time left for clearing the Augean stables.

    Tears before bedtime.

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