2 months out from 2017 election – National terrified, Labour resurrection, Greens triumphant, NZ First stalling

By   /   August 1, 2017  /   80 Comments

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My conclusion 2 months out is that everything has changed for this election. Jacinda’s performance today was super nova, the Greens have won their mojo and for the first time in a very long time I am genuinely hopeful we could see something unique here, not just an accidental win or a calculated math trick – we could have a progressive political vision sold with passion.

2 months out from the General Election and suddenly an explosion of politics that transforms this election from a dreary jog of civic obligation into an explosive sprint for power.

The Greens have given a triumphant slap in the face to every rich white male broadcaster with a huge jump in support, but it’s the actions today of an incredibly confident Jacinda Ardern who took over from Andrew Little as Leader in an incredibly dramatic political move after 3 disastrous Polls in a row that reshapes the entire political landscape.

Everything is now up for grabs.

 

Political Party Challenges:

NATIONAL – current poll of polls 45.8%

National continue to tank in the Polls and they are falling far faster than they were in both previous elections. Their slew of admissions that social policy and infrastructure has failed is too little too late and they are now having to campaign on an agenda they are directly responsible for.

Bill English looks tired already and the threat to National’s support parties means they will need to be able to cut a deal with NZ First to ensure they retain the Treasury benches.

The release of their social policy looks disingenuous when you consider they had spent the first 8 years cutting these services. It’s desperate stuff and it’s wilting in the spotlight.

 

LABOUR – current poll of polls 25.1%

BOOM! With one Press Conference, Jacinda has reset the political landscape. Her poise, her humour, her confidence radiated and THAT is what will draw the middle to her vision. She managed to over shadow 4 previous leaders in less than 10 minutes and gained more positive media for Labour than the previous 3 terms combined.

For first time in 9 years ‘game changer’ means something in NZ politics.

Gen Y and X are the lowest voter turn out age group, seeing one of their own lead Labour will engage and excite the very electorate Labour needs to win this election.

She’s not our Corbyn, but she could be our Trudeau, not in an ideological sense but in a generational shift sense.

Despite polling so poorly, you would have to say Jacinda’s Leadership could create a youth quake, especially if Labour bring in a huge education policy for tertiary students.

GREENS – current poll of polls 13.5%

We now have our Corbyn! Metiria’s courageous admission that she was forced to cheat a draconian welfare system 25 years ago  was attacked by every major white male rich broadcaster in the country, in what was an astounding character assassination, and yet the Greens have triumphed by increasing their polling numbers.

If the Greens can win over many beneficiaries who don’t vote they will not be leap frogged by NZ First and they will have a far larger say in any possible Government than previously available to them.

Greens could be on their way to their highest result if they maximise that beneficiary vote.

 

NZ FIRST – current poll of polls 11.5%

Winston was on his way to something special right up until he brain farted a desire to use a binding referendum to kill off the Maori electorates. That’s not an issue anyone really cares about, nor is cutting back on the number of MPs. He has sounded old and silly on those issues.

NZ First won’t take Labour votes now Jacinda is the Leader, he’ll have to gain them off National, but most importantly the deep personal relationship Winston has with Kelvin Davis and Willie Jackson reshapes the possibility of NZ First going with Labour instead of National.

MAORI PARTY – current poll of polling 1.3%

The Maori Party are in deep trouble now. With Kelvin moving to the list, Labour can offer MANA a lifeline in Te Tai Tokerau if MANA pulls its non aggression pact with the Maori Party and directs MANA voters to back Tamati Coffey in Waiariki and support Peni Henare in Tamaki Makaurau. That will snuff the Maori Party out altogether and eliminate a coalition partner for National.

 

UNITED FUTURE – current polling 0.1%

Greg O’Connor still drawing a lot of attention. O’Connor has been doing far better than anyone expected on the local issues. With Jacinda as Leader, Greg should gain even more support. Greg winning here would eliminate another National Party coalition partner.

 

ACT – current polling 1%

If Gareth Morgan stands in Epsom, Seymour could be gone. His embrace of euthanasia is deeply unpopular with the Asian vote in Epsom and Gareth could give him a real run for his money.

 

TOP – current polling 2%

The only way Gareth wins is if he runs in Epsom. If he doesn’t run, he won’t win and they won’t gain 5%. If he runs in Epsom and wins he will bring in MPs off his party vote list, could be a fascinating dimension of the election.

 

MANA – current polling .2%

With Kelvin moving to the list, Labour can offer MANA a lifeline in Te Tai Tokerau if MANA pulls its non aggression pact with the Maori Party and directs MANA voters to back Tamati Coffey in Waiariki and support Peni Henare in Tamaki Makaurau.

Hone should be on the phone to Willie Jackson and Kelvin Davis right now.

 

 

My conclusion 2 months out is that everything has changed for this election. Jacinda’s performance today was super nova, the Greens have won their mojo and for the first time in a very long time I am genuinely hopeful we could see something unique here, not just an accidental win or a calculated math trick – we could have a progressive political vision sold with passion.

This could be the first Government that voters vote for rather than vote out.

 

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80 Comments

  1. Siobhan says:

    Greens could be on their way to their highest result if they maximise that beneficiary vote…..or even better maximise the vote of all NZers with some level of compassion, and a desire for a decent and fair society, who therefore include beneficiaries in the mental equation when they cast their vote.

    • CLEANGREEN says:

      Or if Jacinda can muster the same votes with her considerable expressions today to NZers with some level of compassion, and a desire for a decent and fair society, she may suck some from Greens and maybe also hopefully those swing middle voters who still have some social conscience.

    • CLEANGREEN says:

      “but most importantly the deep personal relationship Winston has with Kelvin Davis and Willie Jackson reshapes the possibility of NZ First going with Labour instead of National.” yes that hit the spot Martyn it is the bond that lives, so we now can count on Winston here.

      I never doubted he would go with Labour martyn – not for one minute.

      Winston hinted as much at public meetings when asked if he would go
      with National he would say (my words) – well after all the bad things i have said today about what this government are doing wrong!! is not an answer to your question?

      Of the four meetings we have been to Winston always makes everyone sure to get the message that he wants to get rid of the government big time.

      • Red Buzzard says:

        +100…”I never doubted he would go with Labour martyn – not for one minute.”

      • Louis says:

        Thats the impression I have, so dont get the talk of Winston and National. If you want change like he talks about you dont get it by adding to the same old line up of 9 years.

        • Hanswurst says:

          Were you lot there in 1996?

          • Louis says:

            He apologized for that 2 years later in 98′ dont think the circumstances were as bad as they are now. Either way as people have pointed out one can not be too sure of Winston until he shows his hand.

  2. The Weatherman says:

    I know exactly what the Maori Party and their mates got up to over slave fishing.

    They do not represent Tangata whenua, at all, nor anyone else or any other group suffering from economic violence.

    Good riddance, Fox.

    • Red Buzzard says:

      +100…many Maori eligible for the Maori Roll actually choose to vote on the General Roll….that said I support Maori Seats and if there is to be a referendum it should be for Maori to vote and decide.

      It is a very minor issue for NZF…and can easily be tweeked or traded in coalition

      http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/policies

    • Louis says:

      Completely agree with you Weatherman.

  3. You have got it spot on… there is now real hope… we may even at this late point be on the verge of coming of age, we may be on the point of giving thousands of younger New Zealanders a real reason to go to the polls.
    We should expect and will no doubt be confronted with more dirty politics and shameless lies and propaganda from our MSM and their overseas backers.
    The older generation like myself needs to encourage our children and grandchildren to vote. They are the future just as we once were.

  4. WILD KATIPO says:

    I had a few chuckles when Adern batted back some of the perennial National party supporting arseholes from the media pack. Done with a very authoritative air , and then back to that trademark wide smile.

    Wow. there’s a few good points there Martyn.

    We have the Greens leading the way in social issues for sure. Beneficiaries are going to have a new voice. And that will shut up English , – and his bought and paid for media trolls ,- and also the so called Deputy of his who should now be renamed as the motel lady they call ‘sweetie’ .

    And that means an inclusive govt is on the way.

    We have Labour looking at raising the minimum wage and implementing the Living Wage.

    And that means a fairer and more equitable govt is on its way and an end to Bill English’s prized ‘ low wage economy’ – and his exploitative use of immigrants to bolster that up.

    We have Winston Peters attacking Bill English about how many texts he made to Dickson … and a friendship between him and Kelvin Davis and Willie Jackson…

    And that means a cross party cohesive type govt is on the way.

    Add it all together ?

    And that means you have a Labour led govt after the September elections.

  5. Peter says:

    For the first time, I am genuinely feeling excited about the coming election. We now have a vibrant, young team up against a bunch of old hacks who have had their snouts in the feed trough for too long and are now due to be put out to pasture. I sense something quite incredible is going to happen and all in the space of six weeks.

  6. mosa says:

    The National party has a hard core constituency that will be sold on the stable and secure message and comfortable in their detachment from reality that is Nationals assault on anything humane and those who are working poor or on a benefit.

    Jacinda who i described on another blog as the kiwi equivalent of Justin Trudeau has real charisma and can appeal to men , woman the young and the people who are totally misguided and bewildered.

    The campaign is now firing up and this leadership elevation is for this election and should National hold on the one in 2020 but i think the next National government will fall before its term is up and for Jacinda its only a matter of time.
    The electorate of Mt Albert is becoming the most famous in the country and its MP once again destined for greatness.

  7. mosa says:

    The National party has a hard core constituency that will be sold on the stable and secure message and comfortable in their detachment from reality that is Nationals assault on anything humane and those who are working poor or on a benefit.

    Jacinda who i described on another blog as the kiwi equivalent of Justin Trudeau has real charisma and can appeal to men , woman the young and the people who are totally misguided and bewildered.

    The campaign is now firing up and this leadership elevation is for this election and should National hold on the one in 2020 but i think the next National government will fall before its term is up and for Jacinda its only a matter of time.
    The electorate of Mt Albert is becoming the most famous in the country and its MP once again destined for greatness.

  8. mosa says:

    The National party has a hard core constituency that will be sold on the stable and secure message and comfortable in their detachment from reality that is Nationals assault on anything humane and those who are working poor or on a benefit.

    Jacinda who i described on another blog as the kiwi equivalent of Justin Trudeau has real charisma and can appeal to men , woman the young and the people who are totally misguided and bewildered.

    The campaign is now firing up and this leadership elevation is for this election and should National hold on the one in 2020 but i think the next National government will fall before its term is up and for Jacinda its only a matter of time.
    The electorate of Mt Albert is becoming the most famous in the country and its MP once again destined for greatness.

    • CLEANGREEN says:

      100% mosa.

    • Louis says:

      Justin is no leftie and neither is Jacinda. I hope this cynical move by the self serving careerists within Labour pans out because theres a hell of alot of Kiwis hurting out there under National’s regime.

      • Red Buzzard says:

        +100 LOUIS…I heard a wit from Hokianga (?) on radio describe it as ‘The Day of the Jackals’

        …and there was some discussion about giving the Labour Party ‘A Fresh Approach’ billboard featuring Andrew Little and Jacinda Adern … a Salvador Dali mustache for Jacinda … and a knife above his head and two black eyes for Andrew Little…

        ….however if a coalition can be formed to defeat Nactional…all is good

        • Louis says:

          I hear you Red and youre right of course but I’m still furious and I’m not sure if I have it in me to forgive the Grant/Jacinda faction again. Labour’s fortunate that they now have “new friends” to stump up for the cost of their coup d’état.

  9. mosa says:

    Shit guys sorry that blog went through twice more than it should have.

    If you missed the first one i have repeated it for you.

  10. patricia bremner says:

    We are encouraged today Mosa, so sweet!!

  11. The Masked Moa says:

    And still none will dare back a policy on “Full Employment” and what is needed to achieve this e.g. the dismantling of the Neoliberal policy that requires structurally embedded unemployment to keep inflation and workers expectations low and the middle class terrified as they are just a few pay checks away from poverty as well. So Neoliberalism triumphs again leaving the poor working class out in the cold and the rich getting richer like what happened under the last Labour led government with just a bit more trickle down to keep the peasants passive behind a social apartheid wall of structurally embedded poverty.

    • Jack Ramaka says:

      Trickle Down Economics was definitely false advertising by Labour & National in the Neoliberal Experiment which went horribly wrong for New Zealanders ?

    • Danyl Strype says:

      “Neoliberalism” is not just about monetary policy. It’s also about privatization of public services, which has been proceeding apace under the NatACTs (charter schools, run-down public health services pushing people to private health insurances etc). Clark’s government, for all its faults, reversed the privatization of ACC in their first few weeks of government, and canned the Bolger/ Birch plan to start privatizing the public road network. Labour, Greens, and NZ First all support a strong public sector, increased investment in public health, education, rail, and so on.

      “Neoliberalism” is also about running any remaining public services as state owned corporations. Clark’s government did put TVNZ under a charter, and made sure public interest television had a place when digital TV came in (remember TVNZ7!). Hopefully a Labour-Greens government would go all the way and de-corporatize both TVNZ and RadioNZ, turning them back into non-commercial public interest broadcasters. I’d like to see every “State Owned Enterprise” turned back into a service-orientated public organisation, not a commercial one ripe for sale as a “state asset”

      “Neoliberalism” is also about allowing transnational corporations to buy up entire industries, particularly sectors like media, where diversity is crucial to a functioning democracy. The lion’s share of media in Aotearoa today is owned by a handful of overseas-owned companies, and the level of obvious political bias towards the bosses’ parties and against the workers’ parties is appalling. I look forward to seeing Labour, Greens, and NZ First policy on returning us to diverse media ownership, and funding of public interest journalism that’s not tied to commercial broadcasters/ publishers or commercial imperatives.

      Understanding exactly what “neoliberalism” is, and what makes it different from what came before, is crucial to understanding what kinds of policies could and couldn’t move us beyond it.

      • Shona says:

        I understand perfectly what neoliberalism is. I don’t need a lecture. New Zealand society today is a neoliberal society. Like Dickens England it selfish, dishonest greedy squalid corrupt mean and cruel, Services are run down or nonexistent and the rich take government money to line their pockets and provide shitty incompetent crap services in the name of cronyism and corporate greed. It is about wealth transfer to nonproductive parasites like the financial and political classes who evolve ass they feed off public wealth. It is about the destruction of democracy and bribes to the last remaining members of the working class like 3 fee free years of tertiary education. Shit unstable jobs and a complete lack of progress for humanity.
        Stick your lecture I raised and educated a family since 1984 and like me my kids went to Australia so they could earn a decent fucking living. Australia has a more robust democray than NZ and was able to resist the worst of the neoliberal plague for a long time. A neo liberal society is a society of obedient workers just smart enough to stomach the shitty jobs and crumbs from the ruling classes table. That is what we have become thanks to the NZ labour party.

      • CLEANGREEN says:

        1000% Danyl

        Agreed fully with you.

      • WILD KATIPO says:

        Basically , neo liberalism is the exact opposite of what Jim Anderton and the Alliance party stood for.

        That’s why I used to vote for them.

        Though at the time I also liked NZ First however they never stood candidates in the area as much . Still like NZ First though, and the Greens,… and have warmed somewhat to Labour after 3 decades because of Cunliffe and Little.

        I see good things happening with Jacinda Adern’s Labour, – though only because of coalition with and influence by the Greens .

  12. Afewknowthetruth says:

    International banks and corporations will remain in control of NZ society, whoever forms the next government. And everything that matters will continue to be made worse whoever forms the next government.

    None of the parties are prepared to even talk about, let alone deal with, any of the fundamental issues such as the creation of money out of thin air by central banks and commercial banks, the charging of interest on money created out of thin air, the fact that global oil extraction has peaked and is in decline, that there is serious overconsumption and serious overpopulation, and that we are in the early stages of abrupt climate change as a consequence of overconsumption and overpopulation.

    Political parties are more concerned with maintaining facades, illusions and delusions for as long as possible than examining any the facts and basing policies on those facts.

    We are still on track for economic, environmental and societal collapse, commencing around 2020. And NZ political parties are utterly determined to ensure that no preparations are made for the collapse.

  13. Shona says:

    I’d like to share your optimism. I wish Ardern well but I am not convinced. This has been a media coup. She is the pick of the ruling class because she is a neoliberal. Watch the free ride she gets from the media.You are wrong about NZ First and where Winston will go. It’s what the Greens and Labour are prepared to offer him that is the issue there.

    • Danyl Strype says:

      On what evidence are you basing the claim that Jacinda Ardern is a “neoliberal”? This seems unlikely from a woman who once chaired the International Union of Young Socialists. Clare Curran has been accused of being a “neoliberal” too, on the basis of being one of the ABCs. But neoliberals don’t camp out in public spaces to protest the state’s failure to house solo Mums, even in an election year. Grant Robertson is finance spokesperson for Labour, who are going into this election promising 3 years of free tertiary education, hardly a “neoliberal” policy.

      It seems to me there has been significant muddying of the waters over who is, and who is not, a “neoliberal”, in an attempt to keep us squabbling amongst ourselves, and not uniting against the NatACTs, who are indisputably “neoliberals”. Also, I suspect that some people don’t understand the different between a “liberal” and a “neoliberal”. Jacinda is definitely the former, but I’ll need to see some evidence before I believe that she is the latter.

      • Shona says:

        Clarke and Cullen were Blairite third way market economics neo liberals too. Every left wing policy Clarke enacted was and Alliance policy and the price of Anderton and Co getting her into government. Cullen’s running down of NZ Post over the last 8 years readying for sale is clear evidence of where his values are.
        Ardern in her defence knows nothing else. She needs to read some History and talk to us old timers about what is really possible in terms of economic independence, before it is too late.
        Beginning with a public apology for Rogernomics. But she wouldn’t have a clue as to why that is important and Grant Robertson is a waste of space. 3 years free tertiary is a fucking pathetic insulting largely worthless bribe to young people.

        • SG says:

          A-f*cking-men.

        • Ovicula says:

          Tautoko. Auntie Helen’s main achievement was to convince the Labour Party that Thatcher was right when she said “There is no alternative.”
          Cullen piled debt onto the people by pushing utilities prices up through SOEs. He never considered anything that could have stopped the crazy speculators’ boom that is now housing in our fair country.
          I expect no fresh approach from Jacinda. Her leadership is a manufactured attempt to convince people that a turd can be picked up by the clean end.
          At the moment, the Greens provide me with faint hope, and that’s about it.

      • Louis says:

        Jacinda is no lefty

      • Louis says:

        Right wing/msm have been pushing the Jacinda cause for quite awhile, way before she even became deputy.

    • Louis says:

      I know, right? its been a party coup, the self interested faction used a rule that allows a 3 month window to remove the democratically elected leader without triggering a leadership election. Once again Grant, Jacinda and others in that faction that I also think includes Carmel trampled over the membership and affiliates. Not sure if I can forgive them again.

    • Louis says:

      Look at all the fawning gushy gushy for the right wing poster girl going on over at the usually hate anything Labour, tribal Green TS.. Ugggh talk about hypocrisy and double standards

    • Red Buzzard says:

      +100 SHONA

  14. Quicksilver says:

    One swallow doth not a summer make.
    It’s how the media decide to carve up and present the soundbites that will determine her (and everyone else’s) success in this election.

    That’s all “cut through” and “getting our messages to the voters” really is.
    Doesn’t matter what you’re trying to sell or how good/bad your policies are.

    Totally decided by the powers that are running our media.
    The messaging at prime time viewing (6 to 7:30pm) is but one example.

    So let’s see how that goes over the next wee while, shall we?

  15. mary_a says:

    Hosking got on to it quickly, stating Jacinda has no credibility. Panic mode beginning to set in there I think, considering she hadn’t been leader of the opposition for twelve hours at the time he made his comment!

    Then the other part of the same odious msm rat pack, Richardson and Garner, instead of questioning Jacinda about policy, they played the sexist game, asking her doesn’t she think NZers have a right to know of her “baby plans?” Early this morning this was NZH headline news if you please! Real tabloid stuff! However, Jacinda gave them back more than they dished out, turning it around on them, making them look like the incompetent clowns they really are.

    Hee hee I would have loved them to have asked Helen Clark the same question about her baby making plans, when she first became Labour leader. She would have floored them 🙂

    From what I have seen, Jacinda is more than capable of dealing with the Natz driven msm. Being the blood thirsty vultures they are, they will try their best to pick her to pieces over the next six weeks leading up to the election.

    So far Jacinda has proven she is good, very good in fact. I look forward to following her leadership throughout the election campaign.

  16. SG says:

    Hey,

    Does anyone have any source to suggest Kelvin will go on the list? Great if true, it means I’d feeler safer about voting for MANA. But I haven’t been able to find anything that confirms this. If he stays off the list, then his elevation to the deputy leadership would seem to effectively kill any chance Hone has of regaining Te Tai Tokerau.

    Cheers.

    • Louis says:

      Kelvin and Jacinda were saying yesterday its a technical issue. Labour has a constitution and rules, such as they are, so they have to check it out. imo safe bet, vote Kelvin.

    • Sam Sam says:

      From memory. List represents seats in parliament. That’s up to the party whip to decide under The Speaker of the house act (or rulings) also Labour Party constitution plays apart. This is a consequence of having a Constitutional act that hides constitutional power through out the executive/legislative/judicial. So all three should presumably have to okay Kalvin if he wishes to remain on the Māori roll. Far to long to litigate in the 2 months between now and voting.

    • Sam Sam says:

      From Curwins blog today.

      according to rule 8.45.1 of the Labour Party’s Constitution, Davis is now set to be the party’s number two candidate. Link: http://www.elections.org.nz/sites/default/files/parties/rules/labour_party_constitution_2015.pdf

    • Red Buzzard says:

      Kelvin is standing in the Maori Seat TTT…so no Labour Party concessions to MANA and Hone…the true socialists

      http://www.nzherald.co.nz/northern-advocate/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503450&objectid=11897682

      • The Daily Blog Martyn says:

        With all due respect Red Buzzard? The article says the absolute opposite of what you are saying. Did you even read it?

        • Red Buzzard says:

          what does this mean then?

          “Mr Davis, and the rest of Labour’s Maori electorate MPs opted not to run on the party list, as part of a strategy to defeat the Maori Party and Mana alliance at the general election…

          …also I reckon I heard him on the mid day news saying he was standing in TTT because they voted him into Parliament

          • The Daily Blog Martyn says:

            I will accept you don’t understand. Yes, they did agree to stay off the list, but as Deputy he has to be on the list. So, he’s running in TTT, but he will also be on the list. That means he’s going to Parliament regardless now, you will note if you read deeper into the article they actually mention this and Hone acknowledges it – that means MANA activists can use this argument in the campaign.

            • Red Buzzard says:

              …. so he is on the List, he will be in Parliament and he is ALSO running for TTT

              (not stepping aside in TTT for Hone and MANA)

              ….but Hone and MANA will use this against him in their campaign

              • Louis says:

                Looks like gloves off doesn’t it. Hone has a deal with the Maori party, not Labour that says they want to retain all their seats and try and scoop up the other one if they can.

            • Louis says:

              Thanks for clarifying Martyn.

  17. bob says:

    If Labour and Greens pull their electorate candidates from Illam Brownlie could be gone gone gone. VOTE for Raj the independant, he might be right wing but he’s not Brownlie.

  18. Louis says:

    The Maori party members seem to be at odds with each other, Tuku’s change of tune olive branch although still full of digs contrasted with that of Fox’s diatribes. Not forgotten that when Labour under Andrew Little approach the Maori party, they refused to rule out National. The Maori party only have themselves to blame.

    • Sam Sam says:

      They can’t debate policy. It’s like the cease fire never existed for them in there politicool bubble of there own making. How do I know? I communicate with them. Takes a trained eye to be able to spot charlatan educators.

    • bert says:

      Louis, I think the Olive branch is the Maori Party having a dollar each way. I see what they are seeing, a shift from the right to left. The possibility of the Maori party becoming irrelevant.

  19. Louis says:

    Message to Martyn Bradbury. I want to thank you Martyn for allowing me to have a say, freedom of speech & expression is a bit of an issue at another site if its not what they want to hear. I do note that I see union people, activists and politicians are more favourable in sharing their thoughts and opinions on your site rather than on others.

    • CLEANGREEN says:

      Martyn has set up TDB as a very tolerant site for differing views we are fortunate for his extremely warm tolerance and his character shows true democracy here.
      Makes me feel brotherly with him here.

      I donate twice monthly to this worthy cause he has set up I hope others do contribute as we do.

  20. e-clectic says:

    It’s very early days, but what Jacinda demonstrated in her press conference was decisiveness and assuredness.
    If there’s one quality the kiwi voter craves it’s the appearance of decisiveness in the leader.
    John Key changed his mind all the time but appeared decisive when he did it, never apologised for it.