Huge launch of Jacinda Ardern’s Mt Albert by-election campaign asks hard questions about what the bloody hell the Greens are playing at

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My thoughts on the spectacular strategic blunder by the Greens for running in the Mt Albert by-election and its ability to damage Jacinda are well known now, but Jacinda Ardern’s huge Mt Albert by-election launch today only managed to demand much harder questions over what the bloody hell the Greens think they’re doing.

Russell Brown ain’t no slouch.

The claim that the by election campaign will somehow be a beautiful women’s moment of enlightenment where politics can be discussed in a respectful way without the destructive ego of the Brosocialists while everyone gets a hug and a gold star for participating just seems so woefully optimistic.

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Absolutely. 100% there Wonder Woman, but as Comrade Trotter so eloquently pointed out this week...

Generals talk about the “fog of war” rendering the best-laid plans of the best military brains inoperative after just a few seconds of actual fighting. Political campaigning is no different. Jacinda Ardern and Julie Anne Genter may go into the contest determined to remain “respectful and collegial”, but the chances of them emerging from the smoke and fire of electoral combat unblackened and unburned are, sadly, remote.

…and if Bill English steps in and tells the 14 000 National Party voters in Mt Albert that a tactical vote for Genter would damage Labour, they sure as Christ will.

Those are just two of the obvious problems about defying the MoU to stand in this race which could damage the perception of the Greens and Labour looking like a unified Government in waiting, but what about the unknown problems?

What happens if Gareth Morgan runs? 

Remember, Mt Albert was supposed to be a coronation for Jacinda and build Labour momentum towards the election, it could end up being a close run thing or a shock result.

There will be behind the scenes consequences for this blunder.

 

24 COMMENTS

  1. I see your point – they should not be running against each other. But how many electorates or by elections will the Greens be expected to stand down? I know it will probably happen in Ohariu too. My point is that at some stage, surely Labour needs to stand down and let the Green candidate run.

    • Yes absolutely, I am not sure why Labour has the right to stand unopposed by the Greens, frankly Labour’s day in the sun has well and truly gone. I think it is a joke to say two left parties are scrapping it out, Labour ain’t left and hasn’t been for years.

    • The problem is that the Greens don’t appear to be able to win an electorate seat, even if Labour stood aside. Their strongest support is in the inner city seats in Welly and Ak, but that needs to be tempered by the knowledge that some of their party vote comes from people who vote for National in the electorate. That is, a reasonably strong electorate showing and a reasonably strong party vote does not actually equate to the ability for the Greens to win a seat outright if Labour don’t stand.

      Additionally, the Greens are a list only party in practice and don’t even seem interested in actually winning an electorate. They stand in electorates to help build their party vote, not in any expectation of winning a seat.

    • You are absolutely correct Amanda, the Greens must not be pushed around, and they should have used Mt Albert to make that exact point. Many of their policies are superior to Labour’s and are far closer to what we need and require as a progressive country. It is essential that we have the Greens in significant Cabinet positions post the election.

      I have argued that the Greens should have said to Labour, ‘We stood aside in Northland as a gesture of good will to NZ First and Labour. We stood down in Mt Roskill out of respect for the MoU and we’ll stand aside in Mt Albert for Jacinda, but we want in return a clear run in Central Auckland (the electorate Jacinda would vacate) so Chloe Swarbrick can run against Nikki Kaye’. That sort of bargaining would have given the Greens the kind of unique focus on a millennial candidate that would have national news platforming. It is that millennial voting group that the Greens must engage and excite if they have any chance of replacing the voters they’ll loose to Gareth Morgan.

      But no. They didn’t cut a deal that would have maximised their profile during a packed news election cycle, they opted to run in a by-election that has plenty of negative outcomes. This has few upsides and shitloads of downsides.

  2. Yes. But. Perhaps, with TOP possibly in the mix, the Greens won’t really be that important, whether they stand a candidate or not. All Bill English would need to do then would be to encourage National voters to vote for Morgan. Far more acceptable to a National-voting constituency. The Greens will hang on to their support, but it wouldn’t grow. And if the Greens stood aside, where would the votes of their 8000 supporters go? TOP’s environmental policy sets a higher bar than what the Greens would aim for. Do think he might pick up some disaffected greenies? Labour will be working hard to win this one. Perhaps they knew that it was going to be tough and so they put in a strong high profile candidate. They can’t afford to lose. It will be interesting. And possibly a bit ugly at times,unfortunately.

  3. What are the Green doing? That’s easily answered: they are formulating plans to build sand castles very close to an incoming tide.

    In other words the Greens are lying to themselves and lying to all their supporters, just as Labour and National are.

    It is truly fascinating, the level of denial of reality that now characterizes the Greens, bearing in mind that back in the early 2000s Jeanette Fitzsimons did make some kind of effort to highlight Peak Oil and the need to prepare for its consequences.

    Now that we are on the brink of collapse of current economic-social arrangements the Greens are silent on all the issues that matter and are promoting slight tweaking of business-as-usual.

    ‘Civilization goes over the net energy cliff in 2022 — just 6 years away’

    http://energyskeptic.com/2017/we-all-fall-off-the-net-energy-cliff-in-2022-just-6-years-away/

  4. The only detail I want to know about Bombarino Bradbury, is why there is a scaffold with a noose attached at the back of the meeting just behind the press contingent?

    Was Russell Brown on to something?

  5. Jacinda is the most depressing thing about Labour. Is this really the next generation? May as well have Phil Goff and Annette King forever.

    • i actually prefer Annette to Jacinda…at least Annette is articulate, pithy , effective and can pack a punch to the Nacts

      …imo Annette should not go…

  6. The Greens and Labour “at each other’s throats….!”
    Now that’s something the MSM really like, even better when it is two women because you can always invoke sexist jokes for additional entertainment.
    A perfect smokescreen to cover up the reality that National, by not standing a candidate, are saying how little they care about their supporters.
    National have shown how chicken s….t they are, but our intrepid stenographers of the NZ MSM avoid the issue completely.

    • Mike the Lefty;

      I was about to post along similar lines.

      “National, by not standing a candidate, are saying how little they care about their supporters.”

      I have always believed that no major party should be able to stand down in any
      electorate,not just for the valid reason you have given, but to stop ANY manipulation of the outcome.

      Even National telling their supporters to vote for the abomination of Act should
      be illegal. It’s the same thing as a stand down.

      Cheers.

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