What has surprised the mainstream media pundits, reporters and will have National panicking is the immediate and significant move in the Polls the Memorandum of Understanding has created for Labour and the Greens…
…this clearly shows the disaffected from Labour who went to the Greens and NZ First have returned to the Party in huge numbers.
Because we have a mainstream media who report Political Polls like Sports results (National 47 to Labour 29), those angry with the Government don’t feel there is a real Opposition, what Labour have gained is the true perception that the election is far closer.
The MoU has forced the mainstream media to start reporting the election through MMP eyes rather than FPP eyes and that creates the perception of momentum.
It has to be noted that this MoU has also galvanised the National voters who went to the Greens and NZ First as well. They have been spooked and that’s why National’s numbers have jumped upwards.
While there is much for the Left to genuinely feel good about in this Poll, it must be noted that even after two terrible months for the Government, National is still sky high in the Polls. The uncertainties in the economy domestically and globally combined with the billions upon billions that the middle class property speculators have taken on board as they pretend they are wealthy from their inflated untaxed property valuations need National to stay in power so the bubble keeps building.
They will dump their flirtations with NZ First and the Greens in a second to viciously protect their dangerously over leveraged property portfolios.
Where Labour and the Greens will hope to now pick up is from those missing million voters whose conditions have deteriorated so badly that they are forced from apathy into action. This could bear electoral fruit if Labour and the Greens put activists outside public schools, hospitals and WINZ offices to recruit beneficiaries.
National will have David Farrar running double shifts to give them the insight to press voters’ buttons and they will note that things went bad when the media started doing stories about the poverty they have been ignoring. The naked truth that National have run down our social infrastructure and damaged the people using those services has caused media attention and that media attention is damaging National.
Look for National to yank hard on their leashes over the media to reign in this sudden independence of thought by them. The more hysterical Matthew Hooton and Paddy Gower get, the more frightened you’ll know the Government are.
Nats up 1.9%, Lab/Green up 1.7% (+5.2 + -3.5).
Effect between the two main blocks is pretty much neutral.
A very disappointing poll result. Let’s hope it’s too early to make a call on the effect of the MoU.
Yeah, take no notice of it. It is way too early and I certainly wouldnt trust a CB opinion poll that has a history of being biased towards the Nats. This is a set up.
Wonder what the moving average is. Seems positive though
Hi Sam, I really hope it will be, but its early days, and I don’t trust National biased pollsters, they will do anything to give a false perception of the left to the public.
Polls depend as much on what people had for lunch the day the pollsters rang as they do on people’s responses to political events. I think the most important effect the MoU will have is lifting the spirits on the members, activists, and supporters of both Labour and the Greens. The nature of the coalition that voters will be offered as an alternative to National is now clear; a socially progressive coalition that cares about working class kiwis, whatever our gender, ethnicity, sexuality etc, *and* the ecosystems our lives depend on.
The awkward three way handshake between Labour, the Greens, and NZ First is over. NZ First are left with a choice between supporting a change of government with a confidence and supply deal, or betraying most of their support base to keep National in power. I think they’re smart enough to make the right choice.
Now at least we know where we are with the two parties. They should have been allied long ago to defeat a common and dangerous enemy but wisely are now publicly working together. This open cooperation will add power greater than the sum of the two parts. Combined research and analysis, better targeted, among other advantages.
Already this year has seen far greater exposure of Government incompetence and neglect through Labour and Green cooperation in gathering facts and getting them into the media backed up by sound argument. Globally the Neo-Liberals are on the back foot already, with their castle of lies crumbling around them. Our Ministers seem to be more regularly unavailable for comment and when they do comment, are sounding less and less credible against the facts.
Especially toxic as they feel that their fourth term may not happen, I expect an increase in under urgency sittings in the house as National and ACT poison and plunder as much as they can as they go down.
1000% WR HAM
I see it the same way now and there’s no way going back.
It seems more like a reshuffle than genuine movement in any direction.
Also no information on who conducted the poll and how many people were questioned.
I agree with most others here, its really too early to tell and we need a couple more to really show what is going on here.
Probably a fudged poll again to cover for the NATZ but they know there’s a shift going on now and show themselves as worried as they frantically speak up anything they can find.
Don’t trust the polls. But the MoU has been good news.
Interestingly on the Standard today right wingers are posting in (not just trolls), a sign that they don’t actually trust MSM either and actually looking for other news sources to get a handle on what the nation is actually thinking or to communicate their position.
Middle NZ clearly don’t trust Granny or Fairfax either.
More people calling out Granny propaganda – Just link to john Key’s press secretary and be done with it!
http://sciblogs.co.nz/the-dismal-science/2016/05/28/heralds-wrongheaded-call-ever-bigger-population/
“What has surprised the mainstream media pundits, reporters and will have National panicking is the immediate and significant move in the Polls the Memorandum of Understanding has created for Labour and the Greens…”
Huh?
National up by more than Labour/Greens? How will that have National panicking?
“How will that have National panicking?”
It’s quite simple. NZ First were gaining traction, and if they were going to go in coalition with anyone, it would have been National. However, now with the MoU, voters are deserting NZF, and returning either to the Greens/Labour coalition, or back to National. So, that increase in National’s numbers doesn’t indicate any real increase in support for them – Rather, it’s just the panicked return of those disillusioned few who had crossed over to Winston for whatever reason. As for the Greens/Labour, Greens have dropped a little and Labour have risen a fair amount – Indicating that disillusioned Labour voters are returning to the fold, and perhaps some who had also crossed to NZF are doing the same.
There is now, with the two major left parties united, a real threat to National’s majority. If that 42% – 47% ratio closes, the options are many, but include the following possibilities: First, Winston, seeing his support running back to the left, will have to reconsider who he would align with – An increasingly strong left, to support those who left him, or a faltering right, who his remaining supporters may or may not approve of; Second, if disillusioned electorates who handed the reins to National last time (out of apathy, or the belief that there was no chance their vote could change things) suddenly decide to get back out and vote next time, even 2 or 3 electorate swings in Labour/Greens favour means the end of National’s reign.
This is a very real threat, and if Key says otherwise, he’s just bullshitting for appearances’ sake.
I dunno about claiming near instant poll bumps. I thought polls reflect public response a few weeks after an event.
If we can tell anything from these numbers, it’s the changes to Labour and NZ First that are the most interesting (perhaps the Greens too). The other changes look too small for me.
If the numbers are accurate, then where did the Green voters go? To National? Perhaps the bourgeois Green-Greens who think they can offset their Rangerovers with reusable shopping bags
Speaking of polls, the poll on this site isn’t taking into account of the fact we have two votes and I have tended to split mine.
Doesn’t this make it less accurate as a measure of political leaning?
I don’t understand what you’re talking about Martyn. Labour were 31.3% on 24th May, before the MoU. The latest CB poll, and only post-MoU poll to date shows Labour dropping to 29%. National at 48% at this stage in the cycle and after all of the focus on homelessness, is a disaster.
I would personally not overrate this poll, Colmar Brunton’s it is, I believe. There has been some movements between Greens and Labour, and this is just one of them, as their total is not changed all that much. New Zealand First may have dropped a bit, but with the margins of error, that may not be so significant, and may be up again with the next poll.
Even homelessness and reports on it will not sway that many voters in their preferred party and political leader’s support, as the homeless are sadly a group on the margin.
I would not be surprised if John Key suddenly declares them as not being that many, or not even truly homeless, he may cheekily call them “irresponsible parents with kids that are freedom camping” in cars, vans and garages or cottages in the open.
We need a real game changer, and the lead topic must be housing and immigration, also low or no wage growth for many workers, as the irresponsibly laissez faire immigration policy has led to such pressures on housing, rents, infrastructure and social and other services, it is reaching crisis levels here in Auckland.
And Auckland is likely to be where the next election will be decided.
National is now in between a rock and a hard place, as the slow building (lack of tradespeople and also supply issues of materials) will not allow construction to meet demand to calm the hyped up market down early enough before the next election.
On housing, wages and also social issues, Labour and Greens can make the crucial difference.
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