The rules of NZ punditry are to never write off Winston Peters.
I’m writing off Winston Peters.
Winston revived his political career in 2011 off the coattails of an appalling Phil Goff performance in the campaign and the Epsom Tea Pot fiasco. Labour’s campaign this time around and Cunliffe’s all important performance during the campaign trail is the main reason the hot air will be taken out of NZ First’s bubble, but the other main issue is NZ First’s manoeuvring to be Key’s only coalition partner.
All last year, NZ First attacked ACT, United Future and the Maori Party in the hopes to eliminate them as options for Key. NZ First will never agree to being the smallest fish in a Green/Labour coalition if the option of being a bigger fish in a National coalition is on offer.
Winston’s interesting call on The Nation last week that he wouldn’t work with the Maori Party or United Future shows Winston is pushing this strategy of being the only cab left on the rank for Key to its fullest parameters.
Winston’s electoral magnetism is built upon his opposition to Government, not being part of the status quo, but once voters realise he is simply going to be a prop for National rather than a change of Government, that loss of magnetism will drop him below 5% alongside the Conservative Party cannibalising NZ First’s right faction.
A vote for NZ First is a vote for John Key.
Yeah right, Martyn. Do you really think that you can either motivate the growing number of elderly voters (they are not “dying off” as fast as some may “hope”), who will in significant enough numbers feel that Winston First is the one party to vote for, that they will either abstain from voting, or suddenly vote Labour or Greens or Mana?
That though seems to be the big challenge, for Labour and Greens, perhaps with Hone and one or two others from Mana, to win enough voter support to form a left of centre, progressive government.
We had polls out again today, and they make grim reading.
The Greens seem to be doing ok, but Labour are struggling. Ok, yes, we know these polls are slightly biased, but they still show a trend. Of course the media has not helped, and they do their bit to turn polls into self fulfilling prophecies for the coming election. But even that is all stuff that should be known to Labour and David Cunliffe, so they should operate with consideration to all that.
Most of us here dearly wish a clear mandate for Labour and Greens, to get the votes to govern without needed extra support. But to achieve that, votes need to be won, and policies need to be communicated well and effectively. The media must be treated at arms length and with caution, and clear, coordinated efforts must be made, while caucus shows sufficient commitment and “unity”.
Labour need a game changer, and as some point out, the idea of a UBI (universal basic income, doing away with the humiliating WINZ regime, reducing bureaucracy and costs) may just be one such possible changer. Having that brought in together with a radically revamped tax system reform, to have it treated also as a general tax credit, that could be seen as revolutionary, smart and progressive, solving a wider range of problems.
Housing policy could be offered in better ways, by also offering a substantial project for more social housing, for those that can never afford their own homes, at affordable rentals, or potential later rent to buy options. A stop to speculation in housing is needed, limiting investment to a certain maximum number of properties for private investors, and by stopping non resident purchases and bringing in CGT and perhaps some land tax, such are challenging, new ideas, that would put National into a position where they are cornered.
Education can be reformed in a better and more constructive, more inclusive way than National propose, and there are many, many other areas, where Labour and Greens can offer better policies, and they should ideally be somewhat coordinated.
And yes, perhaps it needs some discussion between Labour and Greens, where to put up candidates.
As for Labour, Cunliffe must sit down with his main internal “rivals”, and sort out stuff, offer them some involvement in leading roles, like Clark did with Cullen, and if they do not cooperate, send them off to the back bench.
Fresh blood will be needed, so the new candidates need more profile and be introduced to the public.
Much can still be done, and voters expect it.
As for Winston, I fear that it is not realistic to expect him and his party to fail the 5 per cent threshold. That will only happen if Labour offers some “game changer” policy that may get some of his voters. It may not happen even with that.
The enemy for now is NATIONAL, and let Winston do his bit of undermining, he is more useful than the enemy at present, and deal with him later, whether needed or not, on 20 September and after.
I agree. I see no reason why NZ First won’t get to 5%. Winston is a skilled politician, and knows how to manipulate an audience, and how to sound statesmanlike and measured. The electorate have short memories, and he knows it. He will be back, and so will the ragtag bunch of nutters that comprise the NZ First list MPs. A vote for NZ First IS a vote for John Key, but unfortunately most of Winston’s supporters won’t think too far ahead about that.
I agree because whenever I have talked to people about this election an appalling number of them say they’re going to vote NZ 1st. He appeals to the people who don’t like foreigners “invading” NZ and who don’t like foreign ownership of our assets. I don’t agree with the former but I do agree with the latter.
I am an “elderly voter Marc, and I am voting Green!
You are probably right Martyn. The frustrating thing is the Winston is the only politician who seems capable of articulating a sensible approach to National sovereignty. This is his appeal 100%. He gets up and says “why are we selling our farms and assets and property into foreign ownership?” I fundamentally agree with that but the man is not trustworthy. His first success was based on being “the only party that can get rid of National.” then he went with National. Without his stupid party we would have got rid of National. Winston First is the phoney left.
It’s worth remembering that Labour is not offering people much of an alternative at the moment regarding the major issues.
As Marc has alluded to above, the cost of housing won’t change under Labour’s current policies. Labour seem to have a similar definition of ‘affordable housing’ to that of National – around $400,000.
This leaves a political vacuum for those not interested in the Greens or Mana, and that is where Winston will step in. Expect to see Winston ramp up the xenophobia about Asian immigrants raising the cost of housing. Of course Winston’s racism is nasty and fails to deal with the problem. But it is a headline and vote grabber.
Its the same old story throughout the West, when the so called left fail to provide for the vulnerable, then the fascists capitalise. A massive social housing policy is needed, not ‘affordable housing’ for the already privileged. Either provide an alternative or expect to create a nasty and selfish society
Right wing poll and supported by right-wing media. There is a poll here in Daily Blog:
Greens (34%, 406 Votes)
Labour (27%, 324 Votes)
National (18%, 218 Votes)
Mana Movement (9%, 102 Votes)
ACT (4%, 52 Votes )
New Zealand First (3%, 33 Votes)
Internet Party (2%, 29 Votes)
Conservatives (2%, 18 Votes )
Maori Party (1%, 9 Votes)
United Future (0%, 3 Votes)
Jeez National only on 18%….and the left have 70% Are the Tory trolls too busy organising $5,000 a head fund-raising dinners. Shouldn’t have said that here though, because every trickle-down-Tory will be re-directed from painting anti-Len Brown banners to vote in the Daily Blog Poll to “adjust it in line with the Herald Poll”
I’m surprised that Winston hasn’t been implicated in MH 370 mystery by the Herald as another way to lower his poll-rating?
Hmm and just heard Mr Key has negotiated a “direct-currency-exchange” with China, while he was re-assuring the Chinese about a private company’s affairs. Fodder for Winston at question time?
Go Winnie!!!
I don’t know if it will happen, but it’s increasingly likely that the Government will be made of the very same parties after the election as they are now. I don’t think National will kill off Peter Dunne or ACT just yet, and I think they might view Colin Craig with as much skepticism as they do Winston Peters. The only real question mark for me is the Maori Party. People forget how important the Maori seats are. With Mana, Labour and the Maori Party all with a chance to win seats, the election may well hang on a few hundred Maori voters.
A vote for Winston First might be a vote for Key, but I wouldn’t like to put money on what Winston will do. However, what is becoming more obvious with the dribblings of SeaLord Jones (the guy sees himself as an orator FFS), the crazy policy about putting off the pension, and the cemented in nature of the Rogernomes, is that a vote for Labour is a vote for a continuation of the neoliberal agenda. If I were religious, I’d be praying for the day that Greens and Mana have enough votes and Labour need to crawl across broken glass, begging to be included.
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