Harawira under pressure
Mana leader Hone Harawira is under pressure to hold his Tai Tai Tokerau seat with a new poll showing him running a close second to a yet-to-be-selected Labour candidate.
The Te Karere-Digipoll asked voters when they choose their local MP which party would the candidate likely come from.
Labour had the edge with 32 per cent over Mana with 28 per cent.
I don’t wish to rubbish the worth of landline opinion polls in the poorest electorate in NZ.
But. If I recall correctly, and I think I do. Let’s cast our minds back to the Te Tai Tokerau by-election and see what the same landline polls predicted for Hone…
Last night Maori TV released a Native Affairs/Baseline poll of 508 eligible voters in Te Tai Tokerau. The poll was taken between the 2nd and 9th of June and found Hone Harawira just 1% ahead of Labour’s Kelvin Davis.
…and how did Maori TVs prediction end up? Why I do believe Mr Harawira won 49.28% of the vote while Mr Davis won 40.20% of the vote. So that poll was out by 8%.
I see, so based on that record, Hone is probably 4% ahead of Labour.
I would also add that since that by-election, Hone has become a formidable leader with incredible oratory skills. I have seen him first hand many times bring a crowd to their feet. The countless hours he spends traveling up and down the country meeting people and the incredible amount of activism MANA is generating unnoticed within the Maori electorates means MANAs campaign will stay very much under the radar until someone nudges Patrick Gower of the reality of a Labour-Green-MANA Party and he startles the nation with an expose that Annette Sykes said Marx might have had some good ideas once upon a time at a Rotary Club meeting in the 1970s.
MANA scored enough Party votes recently to have 2 MPs. As the long climb up the electoral mountain I have always argued next years election would be starts to materialize for others, how the left maximizes its vote by tactically using MMP starts to become the obvious realization necessity and the threat of losing helps generate.
If Labour are under the impression that they can add more Maori electorates to their total without cutting a deal with MANA, they need a wake up call, and MANA coming second in the Ikaroa-Rahiti by-election should have been that wake up call. If Labour allow MANA and the Maori Party to form an alliance it will become the greatest strategic blunder in the opening moves of the next election.
That matters because I think the next election will be razor close and still requires a jolt of something to ensure a Key loss.
There are plenty of looming icebergs in front of the National Party, which ones can Captain John Key avoid?
You make some good points Martyn, as polling in Te Tai Tokerau, and in Maori electorates generally, has been historically poor. That said, a gap of 4% is still too close for comfort, especially if Labour pick a strong candidate (I’m undecided as to whether Kelvin Davis fits that category).
I think it is important to remember that Labour is a staunchly capitalist party, and is likely to be very uncomfortable with the idea of working with the more genuinely left-wing MANA. Social democratic political parties like Labour are often the greatest enemies of true leftists, as the latter highlight the inconsistency, lack of integrity, and long-term hopelessness of mainstream social democracy (which has essentially morphed into ‘soft’ neo-liberalism). We should not be surprised if Labour attempts to extinguish the MANA flame before it burns too brightly.
Marx did have some very good ideas by-the-by.
Hone is the ugly duckling of parliament who is well on his way to becoming a swan, but people are still treating him as the former.
His oratory skills have improved immensely & by continuing to force the issue of kids being sent to school without breakfast, thanks to their neglectful parents (providing your kids with the basics should be the least you can do for your kids), he is continuing to force New Zealanders to have the conversation – why is it we pay more welfare than ever yet more kids than ever going to school hungry. By keeping the issue in the limelight he is forcing MPs to do more than blame each other for what is decades of poor policy enabling this issue to escalate out of control.
I don’t agree with his solutions in terms of them being the silver bullet everyone so desperately wants (I think it needs to be part of a bigger solution such as massive welfare overhaul & education re sex vs babies for teens, ESP Maori who ae 5 times more likely to get pregnant than non Maori), but I like his motives, I like his work ethic & I like his new found maturity.
Kids are our future & I hope he ensures it is the number one election issue next year.
Not all MANA voters are Maori.
Last election I thought MANA was there to represent those of us of any cultural background who are falling below Labour’s ‘bottom line’ of comfortably employed people, so I voted that way (party vote).
Has this now changed?
I’m probably well above Labour’s bottom line of comfortably employed people, but I still find that Mana represents me better than any other party, with the Greens a close second. I also gave Mana my party vote last time, and hope that Labour don’t do anything stupid this time. I’m already troubled by the arrogance I see in many of them, saying that the Greens shouldn’t stand in electorates, but leave them for Labour. As far as I can see, they aren’t yet offering much in return.
I think this comment above raises one of two important points in regards to Mana’s political direction and whether it should involve merging with the Maori Party.
1/ If Mana joins with the Maori Party it will narrow its voting base to more or less Maori voters
2/ I can’t see Hone ever making a deal with National, which means the Maori Party members will have to move to the left.
Plus, the Maori Party has been so tainted with being in government with National that it will put off potential voters for Mana who want National out and don’t know whether to put their faith in the newly merged party. The name of the new party will say it all – Mana or Maori?
Labour should’ve recruited him – they need his activism.
And however politically desirable it might be, Labour is hardly in a position to drive a wedge between Hone and the Maori party. They might do better to recognise his value however, and make certain they’re a better prospective coalition partner than National was to the Maori party.
Perhaps Hone can bring the Maori party closer to its historically social activist roots. For that to help Labour, they must be somewhat closer to their own social democratic heritage.
I think Cunliffe has a bombshell to drop on jonky and it’ll blow the bastard into atoms . I also think a similar fate awaits the Maori party after Harawira gets in there and digs out the rot .
Remember , there’s nowhere for the corrupt to hide now and there are good and brilliant people with the smell of blood in their nostrils close on their heels . They’re also looking for vengeance for the horrors their corruption have brought down on the us .
I reckon next years general election will show some very , very interesting results and I doubt any of it will be even remotely orthodox .
I’ve conducted my own polls .
99% of the people I talk to hate jonkys guts .
99% of people also don’t trust labour after the 1984 fiasco and the consequential feeding frenzy at our expense .
99% of those I talk to have never heard of The Daily Blog or Tumeke but most listen , or have heard of Talk Back Radio .
99% of people loath TV and don’t trust it’s news . Except for the exultations of Aunty John Campbell after he rescues another kitten and who is ‘ Driven By Mazda ‘ .
89% of the 99% say there’s no point in voting because jonky will get in again anyway .
The human beings who will ultimately challenge the cage of lizards that are National and it’s pathetic minions must realize that they’re going to have to pitch a sales tactic at the battle weary and the deeply cynical . Something , for which National and it’s aforementioned minions have no defense .
I know ! The Truth .
I’ve been to several events recently with Hone and he was the guest speaker. His oratory skills at the moment are amazing. If you have ever seen Hone speak in public its a sight to see. He is entertaining, informative he always addresses discrimination but over all the speeches make you feel optimistic about the country we live in.
Yep. There’s been a huge change from 30 years ago when he came across as angry and separatist. He had optimism then as well, but you really needed to look for it, and not many did. Thankfully, I think we’ve all grown a bit.
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