The Greens have few options between now and the election.
There is a sense they may have stalled already.
The Greens had their greatest leap in the polls between 2008 and 2011 when they went from 6.7% to 11.1%. It was the golden age of Russel Norman, but the 2014 election saw them go backwards despite a small lift in total voter numbers to 10.7%.
There is a chance the Greens could stall further and go backwards again this election to 10%.
The Gaia with a vajazzle glamour shoot will turn off older Green supporters who might go back to Labour because the Greens have de-radaclaised almost every policy at a time when the environment desperately requires radical action.
The Greens will also need a tactic to counter the online activist fallout from their inability to criticise Winston too harshly once he goes nuclear on immigration.
But, with the propulsion of younger and fresher faces into the top of the party list, the Greens do have a chance to pull in voters from the demographic who vote least, Millennials & Gen Xers and their muscling in on the Maori vote, while detrimental to Labour at a time when Labour will be hard pushed by the Maori Party/MANA Alliance, is possibly the smartest play the Greens have come up with for some time.
I vote Green, not because I think they are very good at politics, but because they hold policy closest to where I see the country needs to be, but the grim reality this election is that Labour + Greens won’t = 51%, whereas Labour + NZ First + supply and confidence from the Greens will = 51%.
But there is another equation. It sees Labour at 33%, Greens at 12% and a resurgent Maori and MANA Party coming in with 6 MPs between them.
That would give you 51% and you would then have a Labour, Green, Maori Party + MANA Party Government.
By splitting the Maori vote again and taking party vote support, the Greens just made it easier for the Maori/MANA alliance to beat Labour and in doing so provide an alternative path way to Parliament where the Greens have actual political power and not what Winston will allow them to have.
“But there is another equation. It sees Labour at 33%, Greens at 12% and a resurgent Maori and MANA Party coming in with 6 MPs between them.”
That may perhaps be a possibility, but a somewhat less likely scenario that I can think of.
That photo on ‘North + South’ is really HORRIBLE, HORRIBLE, what a turnoff. It is so unnatural.
And the cost for the Greens Maori Development is -1.5% in the latest RM poll. Supporting Nick Smiths Confiscation of public parks, reserves & National parks; the Pt England Development Enabling Bill is something that they’ve underestimated the local communities opposition too! Organised & determined to hold them and other parties to account if they support this Bill.
“But there is another equation. It sees Labour at 33%, Greens at 12% and a resurgent Maori and MANA Party coming in with 6 MPs between them.”
Andrew Little knows that would be a one termer, if at all possible.
[…] Labour need to win Maori voters over if they have any chance of getting to 35% in the election and they will be fighting hard against the Maori/MANA alliance and resurgent Green ambition. […]
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