Why the TVNZ poll is such a body blow to the Left
Despite National, ACT and NZF pimping alt right culture war revenge fantasies as social policy.
Despite National, ACT and NZF vandalising the economy.
Despite National, ACT and NZF promoting an anti-Māori, anti-Treaty, anti-renter, anti-worker, anti-disabled, anti-beneficiary and anti environment agenda to strangle the common good for their donors interests.
Despite all that the Hard Right end 2025 with National up, NZF steady and ACT empowered.
But it is so much worse than that for the Left.
Thomas Coughlan makes the point about the impact of the overhang…
The poll throws up some interesting questions. Conventionally, if a party fails to clear the 5% threshold in a poll, then pollsters assume it will continue to hold the electorate seats it won at the last election, allowing it to return to Parliament and potentially bring MPs in under the coat-tail rule.
That means that on this poll, Te Pāti Māori’s 1% poll rating leads to six MPs, because it is assumed to hold its current lot of electorate seats.
That cannot be assumed, however. The party has ruptured, with one MP, Tākuta Ferris, still on the outside and another, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi, back inside as a matter of law but still clearly on the outside politically.
There’s a good chance that chaos in these two seats would see them returned to Labour, which thinks it has a good shot of winning as many as seven Māori seats, reducing Te Pāti Māori to one MP.
If you recalculate the seats assuming only one Te Pāti Māori MP holds their electorate, then the numbers are more like 67 to 53 – an even larger majority for the coalition.
…that’s right, if we look through the fiction that Te pati Māori have 6 seats because they currently have them, the result is far worse for the Left.
I think the massive loss of Kiwis overseas is driven by a younger demographic and that is going to cost us votes because younger people vote Green.
I think the terrible internal fight inside te Pati Māori driven by Mariameno, Eru and Doc to further their own leadership ambitions has been deeply damaging to the Maori Party brand which has in turn eroded the impact of the overhang.
I think the general lack of hope and vision from the Left make it difficult to counter the apathy and cynicism the culture war spite generates.
The blitzkrieg of hard right legislation is an abuse of power and process, but that leads to an apathy from the disaffected…
Sir Geoffrey Palmer sounds the alarm over growing ministerial power
The coalition government has this year pushed on with a large programme of new legislation amid growing concerns about increased power being handed to ministers and a reduced level of public scrutiny.
A significant number of bills, including a large number of amendments have been passed under urgency, which enables the government to push through bills quickly. Under urgency, the government can skip steps such as public consultation, select committees and proper debate and it is possible to move a bill through all stages and pass it in a single day.
Former Labour Prime Minister and constitutional law expert, Sir Geoffrey Palmer, has told a select committee carrying out a regular review of standing orders urgency should be limited to genuine emergencies.
Separately he has talked of urgency being a quick and dirty way for the government to get its own way.
…this abuse of power coincides with social media hate algorithms dominating the Fourth Estate and replaces it with echo chambers where the worst angels of our nature reign.
There is much for the Left to chew over this Summer.
Labour have walked away from Mamdani’s state backed radicalism and are channeling Keir Starmer’s incrementalism instead to catch the soft blue vote, and this has them just 1 point behind National.
The Greens must become politically relevant by focusing on motivating those who didn’t vote and ensure their under 40 base gets out to vote, and they can do that by constantly knocking Labour’s incrementalism.
While Te Pati Māori need to sort their shit out because the ambitions of a few have swamped all our wakas.
This hard right Government with their anti-Treaty, anti-Māori, anti-disabled, anti-renter, anti-worker and anti-environment agenda that strangles the common good for their donors interests are laughing all the way to the ballot box.
The Left need to get their shit together because if these arseholes win a second term, there won’t be any point winning the Treasury benches because the mutilated remains of the State will be so damaged it can’t actually function ever again for the people.
National are planning a firesafe of state assets to ensure this…
…the Right manipulate the petty bigotries of muddle NuZilind better than the Left can inspire for the common good.
Increasingly having independent opinion in a mainstream media environment which mostly echo one another has become more important than ever, so if you value having an independent voice – please donate here.
Rogue poll
Agree…the last 6 polls, from just about everyone who does polling, has National on 29.5 – 31….Act on 7.5 and N.Z. First on 9… or there abouts…
Since then..unemployment has gone up…
The affordability crisis has worsened
Fuel had gone up…
Huge strikes are happening across the country…
Infrastructure projects trying to get off the ground are like a pelican with a broken wing …
The mass exodus to Australia has not abated…
Wellington inner city is a ghost town with hospo industry in a comotose state…closures everywhere..
They have completely capitulated on the climate crisis..
Meanwhile, Willis and Luxon are desperately talking about selling off the crown jewels to try and get back to surplus by 2031 when Labour were on track to reach that by 2027..
And yet …considering all this…and many more examples of appalling mismanagement of the country… not to mention the terrible sustained attacks Maori and the Treaty of Waitangi ..suddenly… National have surged up to 36 in the polls.
And the message/ lie being spread by the media is …”we are seeing greenshoots”… and The Coalition of Clusterfuckery are now surging towards a win in next year’s election.
The blind desperation by certain sectors of influence out there is laughable….refusing to acknowledge that the clowns they picked to run the country were just that…clowns…
They’ve run the country alright…into the ground!
To many even the thought of Greens or TPM getting power of any sort will push them away from Labour.
Labour did such a poor job of ruling on their own achieving little of note that they are not a viable alternative with their current line up of shadow ministers.
Labour did little, National have done nothing. Other than policy that leads to what Martyn has highlighted, high unemployment, 10s of thousands leaving the country because of the way it’s run, tanked the economy, ruining the environment, demonstrating they care little regards pay equity, actually the degradation of the country is endless and yet you fear the Greens? You have no morals compass Trevor, that much is obvious.
Now watch those humble home owners who are undecided flock to the left with National creating an economy that banks can’t live in…
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economy/inside-economics-why-fixed-mortgage-rates-are-stuck-despite-reserve-bank-cuts/premium/ECHGOG7EWRANRDYAH2HZKIKAQ4/
“Labour have walked away from Mamdani’s state backed radicalism and are channeling Keir Starmer’s incrementalism instead to catch the soft blue vote, and this has them just 1 point behind National.
The Greens must become politically relevant by focusing on motivating those who didn’t vote and ensure their under 40 base gets out to vote, and they can do that by constantly knocking Labour’s incrementalism.”
Well said Martyn.
Its Labours bullshit incrementalism was why I started working with the greens on ACC reform back in 2018 and joined the Greens in 2020.
Their incrementalism is their weakest point and must be targeted.
As Helen kelly used to say The Green Party must be the Loaded gun.
I don’t recall Helen Kelly ever saying that and I knew her a lot better than you.
It’s good though!
Re: TPM overhang situation
speaking of things that are too close to call, have you lived around maori? You know, as a neighbour? One thing that collective is very good at is never forgetting. You can knock down a building and build a new one and they’ll wander about chatting like it’s still there. Quite loudly. They know you can hear. The new building, if it isn’t what they’d ideally like, is just sort of a place holder till things return to normal. It’s fascinating, and probably behind some of the less helpful aspects of the culture that detractors like to pounce on. Sometimes it’s funny. If they see no immediate insult emanating from the new structure, even if it’s just a new letterbox, people far and wide who knew the person who did the thing back in ’73, whose kids used to run in the yard, back when Uncle was hanging round with that long haired girl – they’ll drive right up to take a look, just to rearrange some old outlook and memory. It’s endearing too, when it doesn’t go too far. Nothing is gone, change is always under review. They’ll get back to you later on their ultimate decision – if nothing more drastic changes in the next twenty years.
The loss of a few leaders I don’t think will end the TPM. Had it happened to any other pakeha party, the party would be toast. Gone by yesterday lunchtime. No, I think you could safely assume the structure will remain. What it looks like next will be different but the same.
The question is who exactly are those polled saying its a cross section is not good enough
” There is much for the Left to chew over this Summer ”
” Labour have walked away from Mamdani’s state backed radicalism and are channeling Keir Starmer’s incrementalism instead to catch the soft blue vote, and this has them just 1 point behind National ”
” The Labour Party conference this weekend confirmed that the Labour leadership has no intention of abandoning the neoliberal orthodoxy. Instead, Labour will campaign next year merely as the party better able to manage the market economy. That is not an inspiring vision of transformation, but a lacklustre promise of technocratic stewardship ”
Bomber there is no effective opposition with a genuine alternative to take to the country. For Labour to advance a Mamdani program they have to renounce neo liberalism and return to the values of defending and supporting working class people. The closest is the Greens and they simply don’t attract enough support or will fight to implement their policies.
The ” center ” is overdue for a realignment and is an excuse to not confront the serious crisis that free market policies that have almost destroyed our country.
Labour have sent the message that they believe the free market is the best economic approach and that while they pay a huge amount of lip service to serious issues like family poverty they are not prepared to reform the the system that causes so much inequality and unfairness. They have learned nothing after their Labour listens campaign as to why they were defeated in 2023.
I think we are watching New Zealand’s destruction in real time and if the current government returns to office they will take that as a mandate to complete their program that will create the environment we will have to survive in for the decades ahead. There will be no coming back.
The left in New Zealand consists of the Green party and the what’s left of the mutilated remains of TMP.
I don’t have any confidence that whatever they chew over will be able to defeat one the current government or implement a program of real reform and change.
Mamdani knew the corporate funded established parties would never deliver the changes he campaigned for which is why he ran as a democratic socialist and the people of New York could vote for a serious alternative and more importantly implement the changes promised free of the constraints of corporate neoliberalism.
” As the Greens head into an election year, Swarbrick faces two interlinked challenges that threaten to blunt the radical edge she clearly wants to represent. The first is the prospect of entering coalition with a Labour Party that has shifted further to the right, embracing market orthodoxy and austerity ”
” This is not just a theoretical concern. Labour’s record in government was marked by timidity in the face of crises. Housing affordability worsened, child poverty targets were missed, and climate action was compromised by deference to agribusiness and corporate interests ”
https://nzagainstthecurrent.blogspot.com/2025/12/chloe-swarbrick-has-labour-problem.html
https://nzagainstthecurrent.blogspot.com/2025/11/labours-centrism-is-out-of-step-with.html
Mandami was a mayoral candidate. He focussed on jobs, housing and health. Sound familiar?
The only poll that matters is next year OCT
Don’t agree with you Geoff it’s one thing to have a loaded gun it’s another thing to actually use it or even point it. Given our media are flakey and lapping up Māori Party wars not to mention they are using this as a weapon to try and put voters off. So why would you fight with Labour better to show you disagree on some issues, but you can and will work constructively with them for the betterment of the majority of NZers, not just the rich. The Greens should be focusing on their strengths the environment as its under immense attack its being destroyed and exploited by the COC policies and those who see a buck in it for them.
Thinking of moving to Portugal if The Nats Act and Winston first win the next election
The Greens were good for a while there but have chosen two massive vote losing issues – migration, which will never be popular with the demographic whose wages it is designed to suppress, and the gender wars, which are a deal beaker for most of the population.
Values proved environmental support in NZ is strong – and that’s the Greens’ home turf. If they could concentrate on work there, which will be needed as the Coalition destroys regional councils the better to sweep away environmental protections, they could do quite well.