TVNZ & latest Talbot-Mills internal Poll: Winners, Losers + Predictions

ByMartyn Bradbury

I was given the internal Talbot-Mills polling from inside Labour last night and it has todays TVNZ Poll around the other way with Labour on 37% and National on 36% so as far as Labour are concerned, the budget has given them the bump they were hoping for so they aren’t panicking right now.

The polls point out what TDB has been arguing for sometime now, the Maori Party are the Queenmaker and the 2023 election will be the most polarised we’ve ever seen.

It will be a National/ACT Government vs Labour/Green/Maori Party Government and the urgency of both sides to make fundamental policy changes aren’t being appreciated by the voting masses yet.

There will be an enormous difference between a National/ACT Government vs Labour/Green/Māori Party Government.

There are of course winners & losers.

 

WINNERS:

Labour, the Greens and the Maori Party

Labour & Jacinda: Despite months of bad press, that Labour are still holding on (and their UMR polling says they are back ahead) shows that the loyalty Jacinda has built with her voting block won’t be tempted to flirt with the Greens. Desperately needs some actual wins because things are about to get far worse economically for a lot more people which will trigger crime, protest and far more division.

NZ First: With the Māori Party in the Queenmaker pole position, Winston can make hay all year. The Māori Party’s flakiness on a host of issues will be used as ammunition against them and nervous Labour voters could vote NZ First as a handbrake to Greens and Māori Party.

 

LOSERS:

David Seymour: He should feel a tad bitter about this result, how can mediocrity like Luxon eclipse Seymour’s talent? Seymour is very funny, very charismatic and a very clever politician who is at the peak of his political powers, he runs circles around Christian Lex Luther and Nicola Willis and will campaign so magnificently in comparison I think ACTs Auckland vote could generate an overhang via MMP. ACT have every reason to feel a double digit election result is theirs for the taking.

Chris Luxon: He’s peaked already. What you need to appreciate about Christopher is that his evangelical prosperity theology means his 7 properties is proof positive that Jesus loves him. His CEO routine can do the 45 second sound bite, but time and time and time again his total lack of intellectual curiosity has him blunder policy that he has to walk back 24 hours later. That’s not a handicap for winning because National are selling his enormous self certainty to a frightened and uneasy electorate. The problem won’t be winning and sticking to a very bland script, the problem will be the total implementation of hard right ACT policy David Seymour will be able to force pass Luxon who sees things like policy as something the little people do. Christopher loves the first class passengers and who he wants to get working class he talks to the pilots and first class cabin staff, but those who can’t afford to fly God Airways is a bottom feeder.

Nicola Willis: She so won’t be the next Finance Minister. David Seymour will be.

Beneficiaries/Renters/Poor: They get $27 for 13 weeks. They are screwed no matter who is in power.

Māori Party: The problem is the Māori Party necessity to form 51% will be used by the Right to cause more divisiveness in the campaign. They urgently need to stop dumb forced errors to prevent handing the Right ammunition. John Tamihere’s leadership and discipline is urgently required behind the scenes to ensure that.

 

PREDICTIONS:

2023 is heating up to be the most polarised election in modern memory.

The echo chamber effect of politics via social media means everyone you don’t agree with has either been blocked or muted ensuring the most radical voices are amplified and the polarisation intensifies when the political bubbles realise what the polices of the others are.

That means 2023 will be a true ideological battle between a National/ACT Government and a Labour/Green/Māori Party Government.

These Governments will be forced to be far more ideologically extreme than Labour or National will want to be and it will create vast shockwaves from either side.

The yellow quick fox will jump all over the lazy blue log and National will be held to ransom by a jubilant Seymour who will see amputating the State as his final gift to Milton Friedman so he can hand on heart tell Satan that he fulfilled his obligations to the free market so he can finally resign from politics and make some real money in the private sector.

One could argue that centrist NZ will avoid this by voting National or Labour, but the economic carnage that is looming now means extremism will be fed and manufactured by the lived experience of people in economic and social pain.

Shit is about to get cray cray and people will lose their minds, add economic insecurity into that and you have the perfect cocktail for frenetic engagement rather than measured reason.

The rule of NZ politics is that you literally have to bang Labour’s head against a wall and put a gun in their mouth before they ever agree to implement meaningful change that challenges neoliberalism.

Labour are the moderate management team who take over once National have fucked up.

Any radical revolutionary zeal was drained inside Labour once their activist base became  middle class marxists. If you want Labour to be transformative, you have to literally force them to.

To appeal to those in pain who have been promised the world and delivered a cold Uber eats, the left block must promise radical change within the first 100 days of the new Labour/Green/Māori Party Government.

This will require the Greens and the Maori Party working together to put a list of bottom lines that must be passed within 100 days to generate the urgency that is required to make previous Labour voters believes again.

The Māori Party and Greens must save Jacinda from her and Grant’s innate caution.

The Greens should make their move against James Shaw as quickly as possible so as to blood Chloe before the campaign proper starts and be clear that they tactically will use bottom lines negotiated with the Maori Party to force immediate change that will be passed within 100 days.

If they can’t present an urgent united front with clearly defined goals to win back hope for change, then they will be forced to play the same scare tactics the Right will and use fear of the ACT/National agenda to grudge vote for the Left again.

Look, the economy c-o-u-l-d keep spluttering on, but surely that resilience every economist points to was only so resilient because the Government pumped billions into the economy in the form of the wage subsidy program.

Now we face the economic turmoil of a global economy that has printed $25Trillion dollars since 2008 to prevent an international economic meltdown which has artificially created the lowest interest rates for 5000 years!

You have to go back to fucking Mesopotamia for interest rates this low!

I don’t have a PHD in monetary theory, but I’m not sure raising interest rates that gives all that debt gravity as a means to slow spending will counter inflation if it’s being driven by Supply side dynamics, not Demand side dynamics.

Halting the speed of money flow is counter productive if Kiwis don’t have any money to start with. Prices are skyrocketing because of international inflationary pressures exacerbated by a global financial market pumped full of printed money. If Supply side dynamics are driving the inflation, cutting back consumer spending will tilt the economy into a steep recession, which will quickly become a depression when prices continue to climb because of scarcity.

What I’m saying is we be fucked and that fuckedness is going to drive the electorate into a frenzy of anger, fear and economic hurt. Oh and the climate crisis, don’t forget the food prices are being pumped up because the global agricultural calendar has now been so interrupted by a 2 year mega drought that we will see large scale famine this year.

I don’t think we are ready for this jelly.

 

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39 Comments

  1. Talbot-Mills poll could not have shown a bump from the budget.

    “It was taken from April 29 to May 10, so it does not capture the post-Budget polling period, like the TVNZ-Kantar Poll. The Budget was delivered on May 19”. -NZH 31 May

  3. I would have expected labour to be polling in the early 40’s given all the positive press they’ve had in the mainstream media lately. This tells me that the Americans may be convinced of Jacinda but us Kiwis aren’t. It’s a shame her glitter and glam has been tarnished with the dirt of reality. Our economy is nowhere near as strong as it should be; we’ve had strikes and protests left, right, and centre; only now are the goodies being allotted in the government’s budget.

    Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis still have some way to go but their policy will be strong on the day where it counts. He isn’t one to put himself on a pedestal and she isn’t a show pony but they are a hard working dependable duo. New Zealand politics should never have become about star power as it is meant to be a team effort.

  4. Just done a Roy Morgan poll. One of the questions was echo would I vote for out of labour, national or Greens. No act.

    Hmmm…..

    1. And why not roll out ads as National have put up their bullshit billboards paid for by the greedy selfish rich 1.8 million collected by Paula benefit.

    2. Hypocrisy is complaining about ad attacks on Luxon yet posting nothing on the continual attacks on Ardern.
      That’s it in a nutshell Queeny.

  7. Jacindas biggest sin is not the total neglect of the poor during her time in office, it is the fact that her neglect will cause an even larger evil to win the next election and many after that. Labour has failed us so badly.

    1. I disagree on the “total neglect ” comment however agree with the larger evil winning the next election part .

  8. what about the other poll the corporate one that put Labour ahead or do we just ignore that one and be selective many of you appear to have forgotten National got the most votes last time and nek minute they had no friends and no friends equals no power sorry!

  10. Can’t even keep a plane in the air lol:

    “An already complicated prime ministerial trip to the US has been thrown another curveball after the air force plane ferrying Jacinda Ardern’s delegation broke down in Washington DC.

    The mishap will not affect Ardern’s tour – the capital city is the last stop – but it will mean a commercial flight the whole way home.”

    #CashForClunkers

  11. World’s top graduates get new UK visa option
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61628740

    Golly, in other countries graduates to go to the UK now have to attend top universities, have criminal and police checks, pay a health surcharge to use the health system, have minimum funds and speak the language to get a graduate visa….

    They want to stimulate high value opportunities and jobs – not keep wages and skills low. In NZ the woke demand the opposite, drugs smugglers rock, and now we have people with Typhoid sleeping in cars, gun attacks and ram raids from under 15yo.

    Government just gave away 165,000 resident visas with no language criteria, no age criteria, no income criteria, photocopy documents not originals and funny enough, many doctors and nurses didn’t qualify for it either, as our hospitals use contractors for their key employees of doctors and nurses.

    Keep trawling the world for those who have a high chance of failure and being high needs in NZ or criminals, where ‘anything goes’ !

    NZ social destruction is a world warning – NZ politicians use marketing rather than statistics (cancelled) to analyse our performance!

    The only thing stopping Natz getting in previously, as that they are worse – even selling list MP seats to Chinese interests with John Key as the new Chinese Spokesperson, for China owning security and the economy in the Pacific .

    1. Unsurprisingly, no NZ Universities have been considered as adequate by the UK criteria

      1. Judge us not by that foul cess pit of corruption, the failed coloniser.

      2. @ RobbieWgtn I wonder why?

        NZ lecturer says half of international students in their class failed for cheating, universities turning blind eye

        https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/nz-lecturer-says-half-international-students-in-their-class-failed-cheating-universities-turning-blind-eye

        Student visa fraud: ‘It’s not about education’ https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11759352

        Widespread fraud found among education agencies representing Indian students https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/education/81386128/widespread-fraud-found-among-education-agencies-representing-indian-students

        Student visa scam: Company provided info for five years https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/363084/student-visa-scam-company-provided-info-for-five-years

        NZ domestic students are down in numbers to go into higher education. NZ education is becoming a farce.

    1. Even the PM’s plane seems to have failed with mechanical problems – that is the state of NZ skills where nothing works properly anymore as people are faking their skills or just don’t have enough experience to do the job!

      Neoliberals seem to be more interested in outsourcing everything in NZ to someone else they network with or has woke marketing, including NZ security.

      1. And the ones faking their skills are they made in NZ or have they come from overseas there is a difference you know.

        1. Both! That’s what happens when you have a brain drain, useless HR and managers who can’t hire anyone and check references and everything is geared towards marketing not substance.

          You would think after the CTV building which was even worse loss of life than Pike River with 115 deaths and the engineer faked his engineering degree (no penalty for him).

          Student engineer signed off dozens of projects while posing as structural expert
          https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/467061/student-engineer-signed-off-dozens-of-projects-while-posing-as-structural-expert

          They failed to name and shame the TWO engineering firms that failed to check this person’s qualifications properly. Yes NZ engineering firms have no interest in checking fake qualifications properly and when found out, they get away with it Scott free.

          And the person is starting a new company by the sound of it doing the same work!

      2. Jacinda’s plane is a Boeing 757.

        Boeing stopped making them in 2004 – they are old and unreliable and been discontinued from manufacture.

        Billions of increased budget of security without getting some basics right.

        Maybe a nice 100% pure NZ marketing paint job will see NZ out on this Boeing 757 relic, another decade.

  13. TVNZ staff are understood to be upset that Santamaria was hired without proper diligence or consultation.

    NZ HR can’t hire, everything is about appearances not substance and it’s not the first time they are caught out.

    Previously they hired a NZ CTO who was never a CTO or qualified or certified in tech and got the job via NZ HR after a lengthy process that failed to notice the obvious, But he did do a great video and got rich off a start up!

    Oranga Tamariki, didn’t have many social workers in their executive team, and have hired many people who don’t know what they are doing, lying or misleading or just plain stupid, with tragic results. When this happens it spooks the better people working there and they start leaving , thus the culture gets worse and worse.

    For years the mantra has been to go overseas to hire doctors and nurses and everyone else, as the easy neoliberal fix, but it’s not that easy to hire doctors and professionals and even harder to get them to stay or work within our systems here. Even doctors suffer mental health episodes and we have a tragedy with the doctor who killed her 3 kids after starting work in a NZ DHB.

    So they have down graded to baker’s assistants and supermarket workers coming to NZ, and the lack of professional and experienced workers have everything grinding to a halt.

    In NZ it’s the stupid hiring their own woke culture, everyone has to be from overseas or a NZ useless neoliberal led manager who networks, and thus decision making is getting worse and nobody can see a way forward but just continue doing what they are doing wrong already.

  14. The election will be difficult to predict.

    As things get worse for people they sometimes stick with what they know.

    And judging from the typhoid person being treated in their car it’s getting worse and worse.

    Making everything in NZ Mātauranga Māori works in medicine and education! Sarc. Well lets see how it works in practise in South Auckland Hospitals. Another one that could go either way.

    Most people are sick of the failed promises from Labour and Greens but then in their heart of hearts know Natz will be the same but with less titbits.

    Could go either way, but by a fraction.

    Labeen have already given half the country to the more radical TMP who only gets 2% of the vote so this is already making many feel uneasy and what else do they have to play with to bribe TMP when we are now in an elite fringe Maori version of the treaty which other Maori don’t agree with, (everyone else is cancelled automatically for being racists) but even different Maori voices are cancelled?

    Elizabeth Rata: The Decolonisation of Education in New Zealand
    https://democracyproject.nz/2022/04/22/elizabeth-rata-the-decolonisation-of-education-in-new-zealand/

    Oranga Tamariki Critical Race Theory demolished by Judge – Labour must be so grateful to Delta
    https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2021/09/12/oranga-tamariki-critical-race-theory-demolished-by-judge-labour-must-be-so-grateful-to-delta/

    Te Tiriti and democracy: The principle of equal representation
    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/ideasroom/te-tiriti-and-democracy-part-5

  15. Add the Mahuta corruption scandal to the list.

    It’s over for Labour. Might as well order the gravestone

  16. We are all winners when Martyn is asking whether we are “ready for this jelly” ;p

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