The amazing political elasticity of our MMP system could help TOP

New Zealand’s MMP system has a built-in political elasticity — when major parties push too far, voters often rebalance the system. In Election 2026, that dynamic could benefit TOP and reshape the balance of power.

MMP political elasticity pushes back against extremism

As ACT was attempting to ram through their Treaty Principles Referendum, an interesting thing was happening.

Te Pāti Māori started growing in the polls.

While the Right were attempting to push the most race baiting legislation in NZ’s history, Te Pāti Māori grew steadily in the polls, because there is an amazing political elasticity in our MMP system.

If Parties in the NZ political spectrum become too extreme, there is a beneath the surface push against that extremism.

Te Pāti Māori’s collapse reshapes the political landscape

Unfortunately for Te Pāti Māori, Eru firebombed the party with his suicide kamikaze routine and the Party disintegrated, leaving NZ First as the Kingmaker for the 5th time setting up the possibility of Winston as PM for 18 months or 12 months.

That reality, of Winston as the calcified tribal hatreds of old being Prime Minister for 12 months (with National and ACT) or 18 months (with Labour and a held hostage Greens) is creating beneath the surface tensions against that extremism in the form of TOP.

TOP’s candidate list signals credibility and discipline

They released their candidate list and they are all solid, credible candidates with no flakes, which is bloody hard for most Political Parties.

The next generation of leaders: first Opportunity candidates announced

More than 26 candidates will stand for the party this election, including deputy leader Daniel Eb and candidates Kayla Kingdon-Bebb and Jessica Hammond.

Opportunity has unveiled their deputy leader and the first 26 candidates who will stand for the party this election.

Deputy leader Daniel Eb is a social impact founder in the food & fibre sector. Through his communications agency, nationwide open farm day project, Nuffield global scholarship and rural media commentary, he has long advocated for progressive reform in food, farming and politics. Daniel will stand in the North Auckland electorate of Kaipara ki Mahurangi.

“After almost 10 years working towards a more just, resilient and nature-positive food system in Aotearoa New Zealand, it’s become clear to me that our national-level settings need to change. That’s why I’m proud to stand for Opportunity, a party that is ready to lead the transformative, system-change reforms we need now” says Eb.

Dr Kayla Kingdon-Bebb, CEO of the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) in New Zealand, will stand in Wellington Bays. A well-known environmental policy advocate with expertise in Treaty law, trade and conservation, she brings a unique blend of private sector and public service experience.  Kayla has a particular interest in seeing our ocean and fisheries restored to a state of healthy abundance.

“Like many New Zealanders, I’m tired of divisive, performative politics taking priority over issues that actually matter to us. The biggest challenges we face – from climate change to our infrastructure deficit – require courage, consensus and genuine long-term thinking.  That’s exactly what Opportunity will bring to the table,” says Kingdon-Bebb.

Long-standing Opportunity candidate Jessica Hammond is a public servant with experience across a range of policy areas – including transport infrastructure, health, disability legislation and Māori economic development.  Jessica stood for Opportunity in the 2017, 2020 and 2023 elections and will campaign in the Wellington North electorate.

“I take public service seriously and I’m standing to lead real action on our biggest challenges – like child poverty, mental health and affordable housing” says Hammond.

Eb, Kingdon-Bebb and Hammond are part of a 26-strong first cohort of Opportunity candidates who will stand for the party in 2026.

Party leader Qiulae Wong welcomed this first cohort, noting that “I’m incredibly proud of this team. They are a talented group who will be incredible champions for the transformative change that Opportunity stands for.”

“We are on track to stand candidates in over thirty electorates this election, because local voices matter. Our candidates will be active in their communities, listening to voters and sharing our vision” says Wong.

Opportunity Party candidates for Election 2026

The first cohort of Opportunity candidates announced today includes:

Candidate	Electorate
Adam MacRae-Martin	Ōtāhuhu
Almo Wong	Henderson
Benjamin Wylie-van Eerd	Hutt South
Cail Smith	East Cape
Cindie Uddstrom	West Coast-Tasman
Cody Marsh	Northcote
Daniel Eb (deputy leader)	Kaipara ki Mahurangi
David Bainbridge-Zafar	Dunedin
Derrick Paull	Maungakiekie
Eden Skipper	Christchurch Central
Finn Liley	Rotorua
Helen Tait	Waitaki
Holly Knill	North Shore
Jessica Hammond	Wellington North
Kayla Kingdon-Bebb	Wellington Bays
Kent Duston	Epsom
Kevin Huang	Pakuranga
Luke Ross	Remutaka
Mark Roach	Waitakere
Mathew Phillips	Taieri
Michael Carter	Tauranga
Naomi Pocock	Hamilton East
Qiulae Wong (leader)	Mt Albert
Rachel Ward	Tukituki
Sam Plummer	Tāupo
Sarah Lucas	New Plymouth

 

What TOP still needs to break the 5% threshold

…I still think they need a surprise Blue/Green candidate announced closer to the election and placed at number four on the Party list like Gareth Hughes or David Kennedy or James Shaw.

Could MMP elasticity stop Winston as kingmaker?

If the reality of this election after all the pain and damage is Winston as PM for 12 months or 18 months, then I think that MMP political elasticity may push momentum for TOP to get over 5%.

They were on 4% in the Roy Morgan Poll and 2.4% in the latest Talbot. If TOP get over 5%, Winston is not the Kingmaker and that will be a welcome win for New Zealand against Old Zealand.