Luxon and National – Less a Cabinet reshuffle, more a snapping Coffin

When a government reshuffles its cabinet after a poll slump, it’s rarely about renewal — it’s about survival. After the latest Roy Morgan numbers, Christopher Luxon’s moves look less like strategy and more like consolidation.

Roy Morgan showing National plunge to 26.5% had an impact with Luxon’s cabinet reshuffle.

Luxon’s decisions tell us more about the swirling dynamics of the panicked factions beneath the surface.

Not a reshuffle — a defensive move

This wasn’t a cabinet reshuffle, it was a snapping coffin designed to blunt any challenge of Luxon once Judith leaves in June. Because the real battle isn’t in Cabinet — it’s inside the party.

Judith was the faction boss who poisoned Simon Bridges attempt at leadership by throwing her numbers behind Luxon, with her leaving however, many she once commanded will split into different factions and it was to these that Luxon promoted.

Penny Simmonds is the Member of Parliament for the Invercargill electorate and she is several sandwiches short of a picnic. Her promotion looks less about merit and more about factional balance.

Penk was upgraded for having that rare talent of actually achieving things with competency.

Louise Upston is the compromise candidate the factions support for change.

James Meager being Bishop’s numbers man gets nothing and the Bishop is given the bash in the hope of curtailing his ambition the millisecond a TVNZ Poll comes in with National in the 20’s after Judith has left.

The leadership threat isn’t gone — it’s waiting

The real danger to Luxon now comes from Simeon Brown, who hilariously believes he can cut the mustard as Prime Minister.

He sees himself as the glint in Jesus’ eye, we all see a man-boy up past his bedtime.

As National continues to sink, Luxon’s position becomes less secure.

If it happens, it will be once Judith has gone.