GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan – Kherson, Russians are being cooked – What next?

ByThe Daily Blog

The battle for Kherson is underway and it will take time to ‘play out’. Now, military commanders on both sides will be looking weeks or months ahead preparing for the next phase of the campaign.  So what comes next?  This column is my thoughts about how the war will develop in the next few months.

 

Ukraine will take Kherson – But it will take time.

The offensive has been planned for a long-time. It is part of an operational level campaign that started months ago with Russian forces being drawn into the battle for Luhansk and Donetsk.  Once committed to that fight the Ukrainians were able to choose their next point of contact and chose Kherson. This city is important because of its political value, being the only large city the Russians occupied and if it is recaptured it is a significant political and moral victory for Ukraine.  It also demonstrates to their international supporters that they are willing and able drive the Russians out of Ukraine.

Further, the area around Kherson is bisected by large rivers that allow the city to be isolated and ‘cut off’ from support while it is besieged. The area’s geography is complex with other smaller rivers, canals and drains limiting the use of large armoured formations negating a Russian advantage and forcing poor quality Russian infantry to bear the brunt of the fight.  More importantly, the Dnipro River provides a defensible line on which the offensive’s limit of exploitation can be set. Essentially, Ukraine can ‘cut off’ and destroy a ‘bite-size’ portion of Russia’s force then re-organise after that battle, behind a new frontline protected by a large river.  It is obvious that this ground is carefully chosen.

Ukraine is not going to lose this fight; it is too important for them and their Russian adversaries are not strong enough to resist. However, it will take time because the Ukrainians are probably not strong enough to easily defeat the Russians; and because minimising civilian casualties will be an operational objective.  It is likely that the plan is to surround Kherson, but not assault the city directly. Instead, to slowly grind the Russians inwards forcing them to expend material and ammunition fighting outside the city. Combined with interdiction of Russian supply lines this tactic will drain Russian resources so that when Kherson is surrounded any fighting in the city is minimised.

 

The fight around Kherson is an artillery battle; and precision strike is winning 

We have discussed the ground around Kherson, the major rivers, the canals and the boggy nature of the terrain.  This restricts tank, armoured vehicle and truck movement making the impact of artillery more important.  With limited vehicle mobility war-fighting becomes a slogging infantry battle dominated by artillery, think of the Western Front in World War One.  The side that can dominate the artillery battle will win.  

Ukraine’s artillery campaign is effective, using depth fire precision guided weapons like HIMARs to damage the Russian forces supply lines and ammunition dumps.  This week the Institute for the Study of War reported that “The Ukrainian counteroffensive is tangibly degrading Russian logistics and administrative capabilities in occupied southern Ukraine”. NASA wild fire monitoring satellite network footage concurs; and we are seeing less fires caused by Russian artillery and more by Ukrainian artillery.

Further, this week we found out the Russians are buying artillery ammunition from North Korea.  This a pretty firm indicator that they are in a tricky position and that the loss of artillery ammunition is impacting on planning.  Another, factor is that North Korean shells are likely to be lower quality than Russian produced shells meaning their fuses will be less reliable and their terminal effect less certain (i.e. they may not do so much damage when they hit).

It seems that in this area Ukraine is using its artillery more effectively and is winning the artillery battle, reducing Russia’s ability to use artillery bombardments to reinforce their weaker infantry.  

 

Kherson will fall by Christmas

Extending this reasoning it seems likely that Ukraine is planning the push towards Kherson to culminate in late autumn or winter.  The change in season will make the ground muddy and wet, limiting vehicle movement (like Russian armour) so Ukraine can play to its demonstrated advantages and use their effective infantry to move into the city.   Dislocating Russia’s armour advantage and forcing their less strong infantry to contest the streets minimises civilian casualties.  

However, ‘no plan survives H-hour’ and there is a strong possibility that Kherson will not be defended. The Russians could either withdraw, or if left behind by their higher command the defenders may simply surrender. 

 

Ukraine will probe elsewhere; and may be spectacularly successful 

In coming weeks keep watching the full length of the front because as Russia becomes increasingly drawn into the battle for Kherson it will be forced to thin its lines elsewhere.  For instance, on 7 September 2022 Ukraine made an advance towards the Russia’s supply base near Izyum, 460 kilometres north-east of Kherson. The Institute for the Study of War recording that “Ukrainian forces likely used tactical surprise to advance at least 20km into Russian-held territory in eastern Kharkiv Oblast on September 7, recapturing approximately 400 square kilometers of ground”. Attacks like this will continue and if there is sufficient Russian weakness, we may see some very sudden changes in frontline dispositions far from Kherson. 

Although unlikely, there is a chance that a wholesale Russian collapse could happen in the east.  Remember that frontlines are defended by infantry soldiers, a resource that throughout this war Russia lacked.  An advance of 20 kilometres into the Russian frontline means that they now have to cover an extra 40 kilometres of frontage.  Soldiers need to be withdrawn, repositioned and reorganised to cover the new longer line. A large reserve would make these evolutions easier, providing spare fresh troops to plug the gap. However, it is unlikely that Russia has sufficient forces in the east to constitute a reserve, if they did it would likely have been used to help transition to a larger offensive operation after the fall of Lysyschansk.  Therefore, don’t be surprised if there is a collapse or hasty withdrawal in the north-east in the next few weeks. 

 

The new 3rd Army will not affect the situation. 

In recent weeks Russia has formed a new army group, the 3rd Army.  It is stocked with new equipment and manned with fresh ‘volunteers’.  Currently, it is sitting to the east behind Donetsk and its possible impact needs to be appreciated.  Held back, it is a threat, a powerful reserve that can be deployed for a counter-attack or to hit a weak spot in the Ukrainian line. 

However, regardless of its modern equipment it is manned by poorly trained soldiers. New ‘volunteer’ units and older soldiers re-enlisted well past their prime.  It is unlikely to have developed any cohesiveness or espirit de corps so is not likely to be operationally effective.  Given time and good training a viable force could be created but the question is will Putin give his forces the time they need?  Historically, he hasn’t.  

It is most likely that as the situation in Kherson worsens and as other local counter-attacks start, the 3rd Army will be deployed ad hoc.  Its forces joining the battle piecemeal, firefighting rather than as a cohesive and possibly game changing force.   

 

So what happens next?

It seems that the Ukrainian offensive in Kherson is likely planned to culminate as the worst of the autumn and early winter weather arrives and makes all military activity difficult.  This will provide a natural operational lull that the Ukrainians in Kherson can use to rest reconstitute and prepare for the next phase of the war. If Kherson is in Ukrainian hands, it provides a ‘firm base’ that anchors a strong new frontline on the Dnipro River. 

The next phase is likely to involve soldiers currently being trained in Britain, other countries and the western regions of Ukraine. This increasing military capability includes a range of armoured vehicles that are arriving in Ukraine from overseas donors.  Currently, well-trained soldiers are being paired with new equipment and forming new units likely to be ready to deploy early in 2023.  The ground freezes in January and February allowing for large armoured operations, so it seems that the natural phasing of the operation will be to capture Kherson by Christmas ready for a large offensive in the New Year.

However, the situation may develop quicker and we could see a more widespread collapse along the Russian frontline.  Particularly, if more support is provided to Ukraine. Retired United States general, Ben Hodges was quoted this week saying that “After all this time, Russia still controls less than 20% of Ukraine’s territory, and their ability to conduct further offensive operations has been all but exhausted.”  I agree, and it is only a matter of time and continued international support for Ukraine, before Russia is pushed out.  The countries supporting Ukraine; and the international rule of law must remain committed even though Russian economic terrorism will impact on households across the globe.  

 

Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.

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62 Comments

  1. The supposed ‘the international rule of law’ is NONE existent.
    It means whatever the USA/NATO says it means and does NOT count when the USA/NATO breaks those same self created ‘rules’.
    e.g. Somalia, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Libya, etc etc.
    So PURELY propaganda YET AGAIN.

  4. The defeat of the Russian imperialists is inevitable.

    I believe Russia’s rout will come sooner than most military analysts predict.
    The recapture of Kherson, with images of thousands of surrendering Russian soldiers their hands in the air being marched into captivity, (images that in the age of the internet can not be suppressed), will have a devastating impact on the Russian public, reinvigorating the Russian anti-war movement. The revival of anti-war protests in Russia, and no doubt, violent repression of these protests by the Putin regime, will sap Russian public support for this war.
    Months of antiwar protests on the home front will increase the demoralisation on the front lines. Russian military collapse and retreat from Ukraine by Northern Spring is a real possibility.

  5. Ben, you are reading the map! Well done.
    It shows me that attacks at Kherson show no breakthrough. Minor dents maybe.
    By contrast near Izyum / Kharkov Ukrainian forces have broken through in depth.
    What happens next will be instructive. By the end of this week we can assume that the Russians and Dombass alliance will have redeployed and responded. If Ukraine can keep moving forward Ben might be onto something. Myself, I doubt that Ukraine has any material and reserves to follow up, so watch that map.

  6. military commanders on both sides will be looking weeks or months ahead preparing for the next phase of the campaign.

    If the Russian military commanders are not to avoid even worse military setbacks, then they need to be planning the orderly retreat of Russian forces from Ukraine.
    Russian military commanders should at very least be preparing such plans, if they are not, or are not being allowed to, then they are not worthy of their commission and should offer their resignations.

  7. Ben is commentating on what is actually happening on the ground. Why is this considered propaganda?

    If the information is wrong, in the eyes of the likes of NickJ, Antforce, Keriman and many others, please present your “propaganda” (still waiting for NickJ to provide links to his war maps).

    Simply look at the war maps, there are many versions, including independent ones, to view the latest situation.

    Not mentioned in Ben’s overview is the partisan activity in the Russian occupied regions. Russian supply lines for their western front near Kherson are strained due to resistance activity, continued destruction of river crossings and the hastily constructed ferry services. The Russian western front beyond the Dnipro River has now been cut into three Russian held pockets, the supply to these embattled Russian troops there is severely depleted. You can tell the state of the Russian POW that the fight has left them due to supply and moral issues.

    Further concern for the Russians must be the increased presence of Ukraine Air cover for their troops. Those Slovakian and Polish supplied Mig 29 have previously been converted to NATO aviation weapon and countermeasure platforms, making the availability of NATO radar jamming systems plus munitions are real problem for the Russian air dominance (not that Russia ever had air dominance).

    Looking forward to the alethophobia to continue from the pro imperial Russian lovers.

    2. Gerrit: After some reasonable comments, why demean yourself with that childish, silly final sentence?

    3. Gerrit here’s some more map reading, shows nice penetration by Ukrainian forces.This commentator has been reasonably accurate to date. He doesn’t display truth phobia either.
      https://youtu.be/6UBrJtkTGm0
      You will note he reports constant Russian air attacks and the front stabilising. Take note of the current position, let’s see where it is in a week.

      1. Thanks for those links. They basically mirror all other ones. Love the comments in each. The propaganda from both sides is so blinkered. Each need to believe their biases or they go mental. The Russian bias is that they “allowed” the Ukraine to advance so as to capture them into a salient and thus be elimination by pincer movement.

        But the front is moving so fast (20 kilometers per day). Izyum has fallen to the Ukrainians, cutting the vital rail and road links from Belgorod that Russia needs to supply their troops in the field.

        It would seem that the Kherson offensive was to divert Russian forces away from the Kharkiv front and expose the vital road and rail links from Belgorod, to Ukrainian forces.

        As you say, lets see what the end of next week brings. But at this rate only a complete Russian counter attacks on all fronts will stop Ukrainian advances.

        I don’t think the Russians have the air superiority. Each side now I would say is equal in strength “in the air” with those NATO weaponised and equipped Mig29 now in Ukrainian service. Those “donated” Mig29 are being replaced in the Slovakian and Polish air forces by more modern western jets. So if Russia was looking at a long term conflict with NATO they will be up against an adversary with far more advanced weapons systems.

        I too follow the Indian news channels (WION Gravitas) and find their Indian slant very unbiased but Indian focused. They seem more interested in what China will do. Also the non delivery of Russian arms.

        India has cancelled the order for Russian Sukoi jet fighters to taking French Rafale jets (35 delivered) instead. Problem for the Russian are the loss not just the fighter jet sales but the munitions supply package for those jets over their lifespan. The Indians are slowly swinging the armament procurement to western technology and supply especially for their aircraft carriers where the naval fighter jet procurement is either F18 Super Hornet or the Rafale.

        No Russian jets in the mix.

        One thing the war maps don’t show is partisan activity. Reports indicate it is becoming “uncomfortable” for Russians to be stationed in occupied territories. On ground intelligence (confirmed by satellite images) make for precise air and artillery strikes upon themselves.

        https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/6/ukraine-partisans-wont-win-war-but-can-wreak-havoc-analysts

  9. This is incredibly ghoulish. The dictator Zelensky who Ben worships is getting incalculable numbers of Ukrainian men slaughtered for nothing, while Russians take minimal losses. Obviously, the death of either Ukrainians or Russians is unfortunate, but it wouldn’t happen without this foreigner, who is as happy to see dead Ukrainians as dead Russians.

  10. Thanks for the update Ben
    Do the Americans have the capacity to manufacture large numbers of precision weapons so as to keep the Ukrainians fully supplied?
    I wonder because NATO countries aren’t configured for the logistics of a long-term artillery war.

    1. No. Predictions show the amount of American weapons produced yearly would only last 2-3 weeks in Ukraine. Something the West is repeatedly got wrong however was predictions the Russians would quickly run out of Missiles.

      The great unknown is exactly how many Hyper-sonic and Thermobaric missiles Russia has, The US has
      M.O.A.B (Massive ordinance air blast) Russia has F.O.A.B know as Father of all bombs which is a therombaric ordnance twice as powerful equivalent to 44 tonnes TNT comparable to a Nuclear weapon without the Nuclear fallout.

  11. Russia is the one running out of shells not the West’s industrial complexes. Russia has gone begging to North Korea for ammunition which is likely to be of even lower quality than Russian munitions. On the other hand Ukraine is being supplied with much higher tech munitions from countries with considerable manufacturing capacity. Recent battlefield outcomes show that Russia are now failing in the supply arena with scores of ammo dumps being destroyed in the last few weeks. Satellite “fire” imaging has showed a considerable decrease in Russian artillery activity as supply constraints bite. On the other hand Ukranian use of precision artillery is escalating. Russia’s inability to counter the Himar’s has proved very costly. Video’s are appearing on Telegram of Russian’s troops surrendering and retreating. (Waiting for someone to tell me this was part of Putin’s plan)

  12. It’s funny how many of you have been critical of our Blogger Ben, despite Ben being right 24 hours before most major calls on the War. His blogs have been solid and now we are seeing the exact mass losses to Russia predicted by Ben.

    Those continuing to denounce Ben need to pause and ask if their ignorance is what is the problem here.

    1. To support imperialist savagery, is more than ignorance. To constantly repeat pro-war propaganda that the people of Ukraine are Nazis and puppets of the West requires more than just ignorance, it requires willful ignorance. Willful ignorance means arrogantly and consciously discarding any facts that don’t fit a preconceived held narrative. Even as this narrative becomes more and more unhinged from the reality.

      1. I do think it’s a miss calculation. The good general even points it out that even though Russia controls 20% of Ukraine it’s locked up the whole world aikido Style.

    3. Agree TDB. Some of the responses here seem quite childish and based on the outcome the poster wants to see or who they either support or are against. Ben is laying out in a lot of detail his view of what has happened so far and his analysis and prediction of what is likely to take place. If you disagree with that analysis – fine – but show reasoned arguments as to why you consider he is wrong. Just because you don’t like what is happening is not a reasoned argument. And Ben’s analysis doesn’t necessarily signal support in the same way if a good journalist or news reporter states what is taking place it doesn’t mean that they support it.

      The key question is how accurate has Ben’s analysis been to date. If it is largely accurate then he is doing a good job. If not then his analysis has been poor. But his analysis is not poor just because you don’t like it or what is happening on the ground is not the outcome you want. I’d have hoped people’s intelligence was better than that but quite a few posts on this blog are just cheap shots aimed at the person rather than credible discussion about the issues.

  13. Ben writes:

    “military commanders on both sides will be looking weeks or months ahead preparing for the next phase of the campaign”

    The first concern of the Russian commanders must be to protect as many their soldiers as possible from being killed or captured.

    If the Russian commanders are not planning an orderly retreat of their army, this make a lie of Russia’s claim that the war is being fought to deter Nato/US and defend Russia.

    When Germany attacked Poland the British Empire had more than 300, thousand troops of the British Expeditionary force in Europe.

    The first priority of the British commanders was to get as many of these troops as possible back to mainland Britain to defend the British Isles from a possible German attack.

    At the beaches of Dunkirk what had been a rout became a victory.
    Not only was the bulk of the British Empire’s Expeditionary evacuated from the beaches of Dunkirk numbers of the defeated French soldiers were too.

    And the legend of the Dunkirk spirit was born.

    If they are to be honest to their calling to defend Russia from Western aggression, instead of trying to continue a predatory imperialist invasion. Russian commanders need to be organising and planning an orderly retreat back to their own borders.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zh3arLa0pkE

  14. I’ve just seen video of fields of intact Russian tanks and other armoured vehicles plus huge amounts of ammunition and arms left behind by the retreating Russian’s in Izyum. It is just one battle but Russia has taken huge losses and forfeited millions of dollars worth of equipment in a matter of days. Russia don’t perform like a professional army; all they seem to be able to do is direct artillery barages at civilian targets and run away when confronted by well armed Ukranian soldiers.

    1. True Trev, because there is endemic corruption in the Russian forces. Why should Russian soldiers sacrifice themselves for Putin?

    3. “I’ve just seen video of fields of intact Russian tanks and other armoured vehicles plus huge amounts of ammunition and arms left behind…. Trev

      Careful there Trev. The pro-war Putin troll dolls will be informing you, “..youtube vids are not proof”. Before brainlessly chanting, “Got proof?”

  15. The fact that Russia has to buy equipment from North Korea and Iran shows how much of a paper tiger it really is. It cannot even beat Ukraine, how is it supposed to beat NATO. At the end of the day, as the Nazis said, they only have to kick the door in and the whole lot comes tumbling down.

  17. lol should be funny to watch Ben explain how Zelensky getting thousands of Ukranians killed in the ‘counteroffensive’ and the total decommunization of Ukraine’s electric grid was another great victory

  18. Pat ODea says (quite correctly), “military commanders on both sides will be looking weeks or months ahead preparing for the next phase of the campaign”.
    In this view he is echoed by Larry Johnson who has some military planning pedigree. https://sonar21.com/understanding-planning-orders-and-troop-movements-in-ukraine/
    It all points to one hell of a battle out in the open starting shortly (note that many reports note that there has been very little fighting around Izyum so far, but plenty of movement).
    As always watch the map, take note of today, compare in a week, fortnight, month because so far it hasn’t moved quickly and I doubt that is going to change.

  19. “Attacks like this will continue and if there is sufficient Russian weakness, we may see some very sudden changes in frontline dispositions far from Kherson.”

    This comment by Ben looking increasingly prophetic . . early days and it is going to take a while to get a clear picture of exactly what is unfolding but it appears that Russian forces in Ukraine are facing some pretty significant reverses.

    1. All hail the plucky Ukrainians!

      There you go Wokie. Fixed it for ya.

      No, don’t thank me. It’s fine, we all make mistakes sometimes.

  21. Russia’s unjust war is reaching its denouement

    By the time you read this article it will most probably be out of date, such is the speed of the advance of the Ukrainian armed forces.
    Mike Martin – Yesterday 20:45

    ….It is likely that the Ukrainians will keep control of what they have gained, equivalent to all of the territory that Russia has gained since April. The Russians are finding it hard to defend, let alone counterattack. They simply don’t have the troops, nor the logistics, and their morale – that intangible essential in warfare – has hit a new rock bottom.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-is-finished-the-ukrainians-have-him-on-the-ropes-with-a-stunning-victory-in-their-sights/ar-AA11HcLg

  22. Overnight the Russians did something that to date they have not: they attacked civilian infrastructure and took down the electricity supply. To date Russia has not attempted to destroy Ukraine the way the US did Iraq. The curious issue has been Russia’s lack of major commitment compared to force available.

    There are reports of direct NATO involvement running weapons systems, and the supply of more money, more arms. It is likely that Putin has finally realised his mistake, that the West won’t allow him to win, or Kiev to negotiate.

    To date the bulk of the infantry fighting has been done by local Dombass militias, Chechens and mercenaries, with Russian air and artillery. Fighting has largely been confined to liberating the Donbass republics, not overrunning the rest of Ukraine. Reports now are that Russia is bringing in regular combined armed formations.

    Can we expect gloves off, the gas and oil cut wrecking European economies, a full on Russian offensive? The West has indicated its willingness to continue and escalate, has Russia just signalled the same?

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