Election ’17 Countdown: The Strategy of Ohariu
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(Or, “It’s only ‘hypocrisy’ when the Left do it!“)
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The Labour-Green New Deal
On 14 February, the Left finally woke up to the realities of MMP. A deal was brokered and the only possible, logical outcome arrived at;
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The Radio NZ story is correct; Dunne retained the Ōhāriu electorate by only 710 votes.
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Had Green voters given their electorate vote to the Labour candidate, Virginia Andersen would have won Ōhāriu by 2,054 votes and National would have lost one of their coalition partners.
With the subsequent loss of Northland to Winston Peters in March 2015, National would have lost their majority in Parliament and would have had to either rely on NZ First for Confidence and Supply – or call an early election.
A major victory for the Left (and all low-income people in our community) would have been the abandonment of National’s state house sell-of. (Current state housing stock has dropped from 69,000 rental properties in 2008 to 61,600 (plus a further 2,700 leased) by 2016.)
National has sold off 7,400 properties. Meanwhile, as of December last year, there were 4,771 people on the state house waiting list;
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Had Dunne been ousted from Ōhāriu in 2014 our recent history would have been completely altered. Anyone who believes that the Labour-Green accomodation was a “dirty” deal might ponder the ‘rights’ and ‘wrongs’ whilst spending the night in a car or under a tarpaulin. Preferably in winter.
Green Party co-leader, James Shaw, rightly pointed out the obvious;
“I think New Zealanders will understand that, in an MMP environment, it makes perfect sense for us to not stand a candidate in Ōhāriu. Ōhāriu has a significant impact on the makeup of Parliament.
Not standing in Ōhāriu increases the chances that we will be in a position to change the government in September – it’s as simple as that.
I would actually argue that we’re being more transparent here by actually simply saying we’re not going to and it’s within the structure of the memorandum of understanding with the Labour Party that we signed last year, where we actually held a press conference saying that we were going to work together to change the government.”
Shaw has rejected any suggestion that this is a “dirty deal”. Again, he is correct. the Greens and Labour are simply working by the rules of MMP as National determined in 2012/13, when then-Dear Leader Key refused to eliminate the “coat-tailing” provision.
Shaw should have thrown the description of a “deal” right back at critics such as right-wing blogger and National Party apparatchik, David Farrar, and TV3’s faux-moralistic Patrick Gower. Shaw’s response should have been hard-hitting and ‘in-your-face’,
“Damn right it’s a deal. Those are the rules set by National and we play by them. If people don’t like it, take it up with the Tories.”
Some context
In 2012, National followed through on an earlier government committment to conduct a review into the MMP electoral process. The Commission called for submissions from the public, and over 4,600 submissions were duly made on the issue. (This blogger made a submission as well.)
As a result, the Commission made these findings;
The Commission presented its final report to the Minister of Justice on 29 October 2012 with the following recommendations:
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The one electorate seat threshold [aka “coat-tailing”] should be abolished (and if it is, the provision for overhang seats should also be abolished);
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The party vote threshold should be lowered from 5% to 4% (with the Commission required by law to review how the 4% threshold is working);
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Consideration be given to fixing the ratio of electorate seats to list seats at 60:40 to address concerns about declining proportionality and diversity of representation;
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Political parties should continue to have responsibility for selecting and ranking candidates on their party lists but they must make a statutory declaration that they have done so in accordance with their party rules;
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MPs should continue to be allowed to be dual candidates and list MPs to stand in by-elections.
The first two recommendations were a direct threat to National’s dominance in Parliament, and then-Minister of Justice, Judith Collins rejected them outright;
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Key offered a mealy-mouthed excuse for not accepting the Electoral Commission’s report;
“If you’re really, really going to have major change to MMP you’d want to have either consensus or to put it to the people. It’s not a matter of blame – it’s just a range of views out there.”
Yet, submitters had been fairly clear in their views and failure to obtain “concensus” from the smaller parties in Parliament said more about their own self-interests than public-interest.
A NZ Herald editorial pointed out;
All of National’s present allies, Act, United Future and the Maori Party, take the same view of the single electorate entitlement and all but the Maori Party have benefited from it at some time. Self-interest may be their underlying motive…
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National seems not to want to disturb the status quo because it discounts its chances of finding stable coalition partners under the simplified system proposed.
So the hundreds of thousands of taxpayers’ dollars spent on the MMP Review; seeking submissions; listening to submitters; and providing the Report to Parliament was all an utter waste of money.
The “coat-tailing” provision would be set to remain because without it National would find it harder to find potential coalition allies, and therefore govern.
It also meant that all political parties now have to play by the same rules, or else be disadvantaged.
(Hypo)Crit(ic)s
— Gower
Patrick Gower (with Jenna Lynch sharing the byline) writing for TV3 News was obviously having a bad coffee-day with this vitriolic comment, condemning the Labour-Green accomodation;
Labour and the Greens have just done the dirtiest electorate deal in New Zealand political history – and it is all about destroying Peter Dunne.
The tree-hugging Greens will not stand in Ōhāriu to help the gun-toting former cop Greg O’Connor win the seat for Labour.
This is dirtier than most electorate deals because for the first time in recent history a party is totally giving up on a seat and not running rather than standing but giving a ‘cup of tea’ signal for its voters to go for a minor party candidate.
The degree of hypocrisy to Gower’s comment is breath-taking.
Note that he suggests that it is preferable to “giving a ‘cup of tea’ signal for its voters to go for a minor party candidate” rather than withdrawing a candidate and openly declaring an accomodation.
In effect, a journalist has advocated for “open deception” rather than transparency. Think about that for a moment.
Gower antipathy to left-wing parties using current MMP rules is not new. Three years ago, Gower made a scathing attack on Hone Harawira and Laila Harré over the alliance between the Internet Party and Mana Movement;
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By attacking parties on the Left who choose to work together (but not parties on the Right), Gower is either displaying crass ignorance over how MMP works – or undisguised political bias.
I will not be surprised if Gower eventually ends up as Press Secretary for a National minister.
Postscript: Re Gower’s comment that “for the first time in recent history a party is totally giving up on a seat and not running“.
This is yet more ignorance from a man who is supposedly TV3’s “political editor”. Political parties often do not yield a full slate of candidates in every electorate.
In the 2014 General election there were 71 electorates; 64 general and seven Māori electorates;
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The Green party had only 57 candidates out of 71 electorates. Notice that even National did not offer candidates in every electorate.
Only Labour fielded a candidate in all 71 electorates.
So as usual, Gower’s political knowledge is disturbingly lacking. Or partisan. Take your pick.
— Farrar
Soon after the Greens announced their accomodation deal, National Party apparatchik, pollster, and right-wing blogger – David Farrar – was predictable in his criticism. Cheering for Patrick Gower, Farrar wrote;
…Labour and Greens have spent years condemning deals where National stands but tells supporters they only want the party vote, and now they’ve done a deal where they don’t even stand. I don’t have a huge issue with them doing that – the issue is their blatant hypocrisy.
They’re so desperate to be in Government they’ll put up with that, but the irony is that if Winston does hold the balance of power and pick Labour, he’ll insist the Greens are shut out of Government.
Yet, in 2011 and 2014, Farrar had different thoughts on deal-making when it came to electoral accomodations;
This is sensible and not unusual. Off memory most elections there have been some seats where ACT doesn’t stand a candidate to avoid splitting the centre-right electorate vote. One of the nice things about MMP is that you can still contest the party vote, without needing to stand in an electorate.
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I think Epsom voters will vote tactically, as they did previously. But the choice is up to them. National may say we are only seeking the party vote in an electorate – but they still stand a candidate, giving voters the choice. Epsom voters are not controlled by National. If they don’t want to tactically vote, then they won’t. All National will be doing is saying we’re happy for people to vote for the ACT candidate, as having ACT in Parliament means you get a National-led Government.
So, according to Farrar, it’s ok that “ ACT doesn’t stand a candidate to avoid splitting the centre-right electorate vote“. He describes it as “one of the nice things about MMP“.
So as long as a deal is presented dishonestly – “All National will be doing is saying we’re happy for people to vote for the ACT candidate, as having ACT in Parliament means you get a National-led Government” – then that’s ok?
Both Labour/Greens and National/ACT have presented electoral accomodations – but in different ways.
One was transparent.
The other was doing it with a “wink, wink, nudge, nudge”.
It is unreasonable and hypocritical to support one side to exploit current MMP provisions to their benefit – whilst expecting others to work to a different set of rules. Perhaps Mr Farrar should look at how National/ACT presents their accomodations to the public – or else do away with the coat-tailing provision altogether.
Ōhāriu Green Voters
Following the 2011 General Election, I noted that Green voters had failed to make full use of strategic voting under MMP;
Dunne’s election gave National an extra coalition partner and his win therefore assumes a greater relevance than a “mere” electorate MP. In effect, 1,775 Green voters sent John Key a second Coalition partner, after John Banks.
And again, post-2014;
Some Green supporters are either woefully ignorant of MMP – or have been smoking to much of a certain herb. Or, gods forbid, they are so desperate to remain ideologically pure in their principles, that they are willing to allow a right wing candidate to be elected, rather than supporting a candidate from another party on the Left.
In Ōhāriu (as well as other electorates) Peter Dunne was returned to office because Green Party supporters cast their electorate votes for Green candidate Tane Woodley, instead of the Labour candidate. Preliminary election results for Ohariu yield the following;
ANDERSEN, Virginia: (Labour)11,349*
DUNNE, Peter: (United Future) 12,279*
WOODLEY, Tane: (Greens) 2,266*
Had supporters of the Green Party given their electorate votes to Viriginia Andersen, Peter Dunne would have been defeated by 1,336* votes.
The Greens need to get it through to their supporter’s heads that giving their electorate votes to their own candidates is a waste of effort and an indulgence we cannot afford.
When elections are close-fought and majorities slim, such indulgences cannot be tolerated, and the Greens need to educate their supporters quick-smart, if we are to win in 2017.
(*Note: figures above were preliminary and not final results.)
If there was an element of frustration and anger in my comments above, it was a ‘face-palm’ moment. The poorest families and individuals in New Zealand have paid the price by enduring two terms of National because Green voters chose to indulge themselves by casting both votes for the Green candidate, rather than strategic vote-splitting.
I can understand affluent, propertied Middle Class voting for self-interest.
I find it less palatable that Green voters cast their ballots for some bizarre feeling of political purity. That is selfishness in another form.
Beneficiaries being attacked by a souless government; people living in cars, garages, rough, or crammed three families into one home; people suffering as social services are slashed, will find it hard to understand such selfishness.
In the United States, blue-collar workers voted for a populist demagogue. The workers who voted for Trump believed that the Left had abandoned them.
We dare not allow the same despair to flourish in our own country.
If politics is a contest of ideas; a battle of ideology; then strategy counts.
The Greens have woken up to this simple reality.
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References
Radio NZ: Green Party will not stand in Ōhāriu
Electoral Commission: Official Count Results – Ōhāriu
Radio NZ: Winston Peters takes Northland
Radio NZ: Thousands of state houses up for sale
Housing NZ: Annual Report 2008/09
Housing NZ: Annual Report 2015/16
Fairfax media: Samoan family stuck in makeshift, mosquito-ridden tent – ‘through no fault of their own’
Ministry of Social Development: The housing register
Radio NZ: Labour-Greens deny deal over Ohariu seat
NZ Herald: Political Roundup – Embarrassing but strategic deal for the Greens
Electoral Commission: 2012 MMP Review
Electoral Commission: What people said on the MMP Review
Electoral Commission: The Results of the MMP Review
NZ Herald: Govt rejects recommendations to change MMP system
NZ Herald: Editorial – National too timid on MMP review
Electoral Commission: Financial Review
Radio NZ: Collins defends not trying for changes to MMP
Scoop media: Minister’s response to MMP review a travesty – Lianne Dalziel
NZ Herald: Editorial – National too timid on MMP review
TV3 News: Patrick Gower – Labour-Greens do double dirty deal in Ōhāriu
Electoral Commission: Electoral Commission releases party and candidate lists for 2014 election
Kiwiblog: The double dirty deal in Ohariu
Kiwiblog: Marginal Seat deals
Kiwiblog: National’s potential electoral deals
Additional
Electoral Commission: 2017 General Election
Other Blogs
The Standard: The coat-tail rule and democracy (2014)
Public Address: Government votes not to improve MMP (2015)
The Standard: Greens stand aside in Ōhāriu
Previous related blogposts
Patrick Gower – losing his rag and the plot
Judith Collins issues decision on MMP Review!
Judith Collins – Minister of Talking Crap
Letter to the Editor: Mana, Internet Party, Judith Collins, and “coat-tailing”
Letter to the Editor – Dom Post editorial off into LaLaLand
John Banks: condition deteriorating
The secret of National’s success – revealed
Election 2014 – A Post-mortem; a Wake; and one helluva hang-over
2014 Election – Post-mortem Up-date
Post mortem #1: Green Voters in Electorates
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Above image acknowledgment: Francis Owen/Lurch Left Memes
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= fs =
Many problems in regard to undue influence of otherwise insignificant parties would be solved by a rule forbidding such parties (with under two or three, maybe few more) MPs from holding a ministerial position.
Well reasoned Frank.
When hypocrites like Gower and Farrar insist that the Greens and Labour play by a different set of rules, especially after Collins refused to remove the coat-tailing provision, it’s like playing a game of rugby when one side is playing by soccer rules.
It’s time we all grew up!
Yes Frank,
What springs to mind is; – “what’s good for the goose is good for the gander too” eh?
Funny the Nat’s don’t like it when others steal their plan, as they do this all the time to other parties plans right?
To many to recite.
Great work as usual Frank.
It’s time to biff MMP and move to STV. The promise of it properly reflecting the proportion of voters hasn’t been met.
The rejection of the Commission’s recommendations was a farce.
Remember, at the last election the total party vote for Nat/Act/Maori/UF was 49.27% of the vote – less than 50% – but turned into 52.9% representation in the House. That’s a crap system.
Four issues:
1. Adjunct parties
The coat-tail isn’t the subtle issue it once was, it’s now the adjunct party. Act and arguably UF are adjunct parties to National. This is the real MMP rort. They finagle two seats in the House as electorate seats on top of National’s party vote.
If we keep MMP, then a new threshold needs to be introduced. That is that for an electorate MMP to get in their party vote needs to exceed 0.083% (1/120) to ensure they’re not picking up a seat for free for another party.
The corollary of this is that in some electorates e.g. Epsom, Ohariu some voters effectively get two party votes when the rest of us only get one.
2. Wasted votes
If 10 people vote for ALCP then effectively 5 of those votes go to National.
The system penalises people for voting for small parties as “wasted votes” get reallocated the parties that meet the threshold.
If we keep MMP, some sort of preference system needs to be introduced so that if the party voted for doesn’t meet the threshold then the vote goes to a party that does. Every vote should ultimately count.
3. FPP for electorate votes
Ridiculous that we still use FPP for electorate votes – needs to change.
4. Voter intention & tactical voting
Some years ago the Electoral Commission were chuffed that 80% of NZers recognised the party vote as the more important vote. But in some electorates, the electorate is equally or more important e.g. Epsom, Ohariu.
I have no confidence that the votes submitted by electors actually deliver their voting intentions. Did the Greens voters in Ohariu really know what they were doing by voting for the electorate candidate?
A study needs to be done to ascertain whether MMP actually reflects voter intention.
Dunne has signed off on many things concerning adults but when it comes to children his record of Franks estimations is 3-1 for adults recieving medical marijauna, that balance must be corrected.
Happy to be corrected
Far far and Gower are hypocrites? Well colour me surprised! (Note sarc)
it’s high time the left got with the programme and if the Nats and act want to make dirty deals the order of the day, then that’s how we should play the game.
Those who cry”hypocrisy” are just bleating that the left is finally going to play hardball with the right.
As for Gower, the man is a disgrace to his profession. No wonder trump pours scorn on the media. (And I’m no fan of the orange-haired fascist)
For years corporate media shills like Gower and Farrar simply ignored the possibility of a green-left government. Since the MoU was announced, they’ve gone to great effort to pour scorn on the very idea. Now going into attack mode, with all the double standards and hypocrisy that Frank’s excellent piece reveals in all its glory.
‘First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, and then you win.’ – Gandhi
As a life time renter on a low income, but as someone who will probably be able to avoid extended homelessness, and never has a chance of getting anywhere near a housing NZ waiting list……
I am still struggling to understand what Labour will be doing to stop constant rent rises and ensure renters have secure housing to raise their children in, and live in during retirement.
You know, be able to live as part of a community and without constant grinding fear about how you will afford the next house and the next increase.
I suspect that makes me part of a large, and growing, group. Probably one of the biggest groups as the baby boomers start to leave this mortal coil.
I’m just not feeling that motivated to vote for a party that thinks $500.000 is an affordable house, and that ‘The Kiwi Dream’ is something only for homeowners.
Some moves towards helping the very worse off seems more like a vote winner for home owners feeling a bit guilty about the very poorest in society.
So, okay, I will probably will vote Labour to help out the homeless, but I’m very disappointed to be voting for more of the same, all because politicians are scared of killing off the housing market.
I so agree with what you commented here!
Why would you vote for labour then? It’s not first past the post any more.
Why not vote Mana, or Greens or TOP of you want real change?
So voting isn’t the answer, voting for someone who has the answers is the answer.
What are the answers? We don’t want it that $500.000 is an affordable house but what is an ‘affordable house’?
What is the ‘The Kiwi Dream’ ? Quite specifically, not just what needs to be changed to see the dream achievable, changed to what?
The problem is that if the NAct and UF votes are combined, GP+Lab are still way behind. I know there are other variables in an MMP environment, but people seem to ignore the basic arithmetic.
“I will not be surprised if Gower eventually ends up as Press Secretary for a National minister.”
Yep, he’s always struck me as a poor man’s Bill Ralston (if it’s possible for that someone could be that poor…)
Oh, I love to hate that Gower man, the TV3 Newshub hatchet man of sorts, this despicable character deserves to eat manure.
As for Frank’s post, yes, it is so important to get this government out of Office, if only enough would bother to vote.
There’s every reason a pathetic shill like Gower should end up redundant.
Real journalists are valuable, Gower is worthless and perfectly dispensable.
Changing the rules would require 75% majority support in parliament. I’m inclined to think that under those circumstances change will almost never come from parliament alone since MPs will generally act in their own interests rather than in the public interest in this matter. And of course the public is also so partisan that they will in any case continue to vote for parties that rort the system; so the “ballot box” corrective is also no longer operative.
Paddy Gower, the voice of the Nation Party.
National Party correction
No one thinks it’s a dirty deal apart from idiots and right wingers – Gower is both.
Good on Greens.
Labour and Greens need to do more deals.
They should also be doing deals with Winston Peters, NZ First should be taking out Nat votes like Northland. Even Nat supporters are fed up with the dodgy dealings of the Nats!
Personally would be quite happy with a Labour/Green/ NZ First and hope Mana with Hone Hawawira gets in too.
To my mind we need to have a broad group of parties to represent NZ groups. When one group gets too much power AKA the Natz we get devastating results.
So if the conservatives swap from National to NZ First, Labour becomes the centre, Greens are Green and Mana represents the left – we might just get a government that does represent the people of this country, not a bunch of cashing up Kleptocrats and their ambitious careerists networking to get their next lucrative overseas job and tax free bribes and incentives.
Agree Labour/Greens/NZF covers all the bases and Mana if required Hone Harawira is actually quite sensible when you listen to him and is portrayed badly by MSM as is Winston Peters NZF.
Exactly JACK RAMAKA, even if I don’t agree entirely with either Winston or Hone on everything – but I do agree with about 80% of what they say.
The big factor is those politicians genuinely want the best for NZ and New Zealander’s – even if they have different ideas about how to go about it.
Makes a change from the power and money hungry careerists out there mostly in National and ACT, just doing things for themselves their lobbyists and backers who might not even be in NZ.
Even if they are nice people in Natz they tend to be in a ideological bubble, of private school, followed by working in a nice job they are helped into and then to politics, so have no idea of reality, which is just as dangerous.
Both Winston and Hone are demonised in the MSM because they do have integrity and won’t sell out, and therefore deemed ‘dangerous’ to many. In fact you can tell the better politicians just by seeing how many smears against them are published in MSM.
Likewise Andrew Little wants the best for NZ and so do the Greens as an institution – (they may have lost their way a tad over too many Gen Zero development ideas) but they also have the integrity and will help lead NZ into a much brighter (and real) future.
Anyway I’m hopeful for a change of government that has genuine people as politicians who want the best and have enough nous (that is where Winston and Hone come in) to not believe every free trade/arms/foreign policy/corporate lobbyist salesman coming in, or blow up the middle class (cultural revolution style, Greens) or through free trade globalism (Blairites in Labour) that has worked so well in the USA and UK (sarc).
Surely that is how MMP is supposed to work? That is the broad church betweens parties that genuinely want the best for their country and can collaborate to do so. Not just take short term gains for a few for long term destruction as our present government are doing.
Accommodation for the idiot breeding masses has been a problem since we overcrowded our first cave
There simply isn’t enough ‘planet’ left to supply 20 degree celceus homes for over 7.5 billion people, and all the infstructure that would require
And as we are seeing it is not just housing we are despirately short of, with the population increasing @ the speed of the Hutt Valley per year New Zealand is several hospitals, high schools, child care, powerstations and roads etc short of supporting the 70,000 extra people turning up at imagination or the maternity wards, it just defies logic to say we can do anything about it.
And we have politicians who profess knoledge of the planets limitations, while at the same time saying they are proud of adding to the problem?
Russia sort of solved their housing problems @ the point of a gun basically by filling all vacant or under utalised homes with people. That is the only way this problem is going to be solved
Until the pig ignorant breeding growth based masses understand you can not fill a life raft with a crusliner full of people we will never sort this shitfest out.
And voting is just everdence the people are stupid
As the story goes it took a 10 year old boy to point out the king was naked, I feel like that kid, and my spelling etc shows it 😉