6 months out from 2017 election – why Maori, Women and Youth vote could determine result

So we are 6 months out from the 2017 Election, and how does the battlefield look?

The Outlook:

2008 polls 6months out vs result:

One News Colmar Brunton[80] 8–13 March 2008 35 50 2.5 3.3 7 0.9 0.3 0.1
Roy Morgan Research[81] 3–16 March 2008 34 51 3 2 6.5 1.5 1 0.5
Herald-DigiPoll[82] 6–27 March 2008 39.3 49.9 1.1 3.7 3.9 1.1 0 –
Roy Morgan Research[83] 24 March–6 April 2008 34.5 47 4 3 9 1.5 0.5 0.5

result: Labour: 33% National: 44% NZ First: 4% Maori: 2% Green: 6% ACT: 3%

 

2011 polls 6months out vs result:

One News Colmar Brunton[40] 20 February 2011 51 33 8 1.3 2.3 3.6
3 News Reid Research[41] 20 February 2011 54.6 30.9 8.2 0.6 2.3 3.3
Roy Morgan Research[42] 14–27 February 2011 49 35 8 1.5 3 3

Roy Morgan Research[42] 28 February – 13 March 2011 52.5 32.5 8 0.5 1.5 0.5 4
Roy Morgan Research[42] 21 March – 3 April 2011 51 31.5 8 2 1.5 0.5 5

result: National: 47% Labour: 27% Green: 11% ACT: 1% Maori Party: 1.4% NZ First: 6.5%  

 

2014 polls 6months out vs result:

Herald-DigiPoll[103] 6–16 March 2014 50.8 29.5 13.1 3.6 0.2 0.1 0.8 0 1.3
Roy Morgan Research[102] 3–16 March 2014 45.5 31.5 14 3.5 2 0.5 0.5 1.5
One News Colmar Brunton[9][104] 22–26 March 2014 47 31 11 7 0.7 0 0.3 0.1 2.3
3 News Reid Research[105] 30 March 2014 45.9 31.2 11.2 4.9 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.1 1.9 0.4
Roy Morgan Research[106] 17–30 March 2014 43 32 13 5.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.5 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[107] 31 March – 14 April 2014 48.5 28.5 11.5 5.5 1 1 0.5 0 2 1

result: National: 47% Labour: 25% Green: 10% NZ First 8% Maori 1%

 

So 6 months out from the election in 2008 Labour polled slightly higher, National over polled by 5%, NZ First didn’t move much and neither did the other Parties.

In the 6 months before the 2011 election National over polled by 3-5%, Labour over polled by the same margin, Greens under polled and NZ First was steady.

And 6 months out from the 2014 election,  National over polled, Labour over polled, Greens over polled and NZ First under polled.

The latest polling has the Parties here…

Roy Morgan Research 27 February – 12 March 2017 43.5 29.5 14.5 7.5 2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0
Newshub Reid Research 10 – 19 March 2017 47.1 30.8 11.2 7.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4, 0 0.8
One News Colmar Brunton 18 – 22 March 2017 46 30 11 8 4 0.4 0 0.3 0.2 0.4

Based on those numbers, National are looking at around 40%, Labour will need to poll in the mid 30s to get a low 30, the Greens look static and NZ First won’t jump up if Labour’s vote holds.

 

Why Maori, Women and Youth vote could determine result:

In an election this close, it will be Maori, Women and Youth voters who will make the difference.

Maori – With the Maori-MANA deal, they have a unique chance to take many seats, however Labour’s counter to remove Labour Maori MPs off the list forces Labour voting Maori to give Labour both their votes. It’s one hell of a risky move, but very smart politics by Labour.  There are also cracks occurring between MANA and Maori Party over the Maori Land Bill that will allow corporate Iwi to do better for themselves at the expense of wider Maoridom. Who Maori decide to back could be the difference between which faction gets over 50%.

Woman -One of the secrets to National’s success under Key was National’s amazing ability to appeal to female voters. National have never had that kind of support from female voters before, but working class and middle class women seemed to love Key’s twinkle despite his politics making their lives more difficult. The reason National are freaking out over Jacinda is because she is starting to make those female voters consider Labour over National.

Youth – The under 30s youth voting block is the largest non voting block in NZ politics, winning them over and getting them engaged is essential for the Greens who need this voting block to turn out in huge numbers for them if they are to escape the embarrassment of NZ First over taking them.

The Housing Crisis is still paying political dividends to National as the property speculating middle classes continue to back Bill English, but if Millennials and Gen Xers turn up angry at the polls, it could spell an end to National’s dream of a fourth term.

2017 is looking too close to call.