Business confidence collapse – This Government will be roasted once fuel gridlock hits NZ Economy

New Zealand’s economy is heading into dangerous territory as falling business confidence, rising inflation, and the Iran war-driven fuel shock collide. The warning signs are already here — and the Government looks increasingly unprepared for what comes next.

‘Unsettling times for businesses’ as confidence falls

Business confidence has dived as firms continue to digest the implications of the war in Iran, mirroring last week’s consumer confidence survey.

– Advertisement –

The ANZ Bank’s monthly business survey shows confidence fell 26-points in March to a net 33% from 59% in February, while other indicators also plummeted.

Inflation indicators also rose, with a net 60% of firms expecting to raise prices in the next three months – an increase of 7 points.

ANZ said survey results gathered during the past week were weaker still, which did not bode well for April’s reading.

The net percent of firms expecting cost increases rose to a net 85% from 79%, which was the highest rate in about three years.

“It’s unsettling times for businesses,” ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said.

“Just as the economic recovery was starting to feel real, dark clouds have gathered. It’s not just anxiety about the future.

“Many firms are already reporting that their activity has taken a hit as people defer their decision-making in the face of uncertainty.”

In terms of impacts already being experienced, overall activity fell to net 18 percent from 23% of firms reporting stronger activity than a year ago.

The retail sector was down 20% to 5%, with construction down 16 points to a negative 13%.

She said past activity, which was the best indicator of GDP, took a hit, particularly in the late-month data.

RNZ

When even the numbers won’t be shared

Things are so bad that the Finance Minister won’t tell us what the worst case inflation predictions by Treasury now are, after claiming they were only 3.7%…

Nicola Willis won’t say how bad the cost of living could get, but bank predictions aren’t good

Finance Minister Nicola Willis has revealed that inflation could go “much higher” than 3.7% this year, but stopped short of revealing Treasury’s latest worst-case scenarios.

Stuff

…this as people already holding on by their fingernails now get kicked in the face…

Cost of living to rise 50% more than expected this year – economists

• Household living costs about $55 a week higher this year – ASB research report
• About 50 pct higher than might have been because of Middle East conflict
• Higher fuel costs add $16.50 a week
• Flow through to other goods and services, dampening demand, growth, jobs
• Assumes conflict ends mid-year, easier costs by year end

The warning signs are everywhere — and getting worse

…when even Liam Dann’s optimism is finally broken…

Recovery set to stall for third time in three years … here’s how we should deal with it – Liam Dann

• Westpac economists predict a 0.4% economic contraction in the second quarter due to the oil shock.
• If correct, this will be the third year in a row that growth has stalled mid-year.
• Inflation is expected to hit 4.1%, with unemployment rising to 5.6%, affecting business confidence.

…you know shit just got cray.

The Government are in a state of paralysis in terms of meaningful leadership in this fuel crisis because their entire election narrative is that Labour fecklessly overspent during Covid so they will let everyone suffer.

Free public transport, lowering speed limit from 100 to 80, working from home mandates, an immediate building up of diesel capacity plus a sustained solar panel and EV subsidy campaign.

The Government are wishing it away and refusing to do anything until things get really bad and Kiwis start rioting as the enormity of what’s about to hit us hits us.

The market destruction and reliance on price points to define this crisis will end up hurting us far more.

National never should have borrowed $14 billion for tax cuts, that’s what is really happening here.

This Government will be roasted once fuel gridlock hits the NZ Economy.