Trump’s Iran gamble risks destabilising entire Middle East and what $150 oil barrel means to NZ

The latest escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran could send shockwaves through the global economy. Oil markets are already bracing for disruption, and if the conflict widens, prices could surge to levels not seen since the worst energy crises of the past half-century. For New Zealand, a country heavily dependent on imported fuel, the consequences could be immediate and painful.

Trump’s Justification: A ‘Feeling’ and the Risk of War

He had a ‘feeling’.

That’s his justification for an illegal war with Iran.

A ‘feeling’.

I think the biggest danger from him illegally kidnapping the Venezuelan President and seizing their oil was that Trump believed he could get away with anything.

He was puzzled that Iran hadn’t surrounded already because he can’t tell the difference between a corrupt revolutionary Government and religious zealots who will fight to the death.

Netanyahu’s 40-Year Warning That Iran Was “Months Away”

Netanyahu has been claiming Iran is mere moments away from making an atomic bomb for the last 40 years!

I’M NOT JOKING

1992 – Knesset speech
Netanyahu warned Iran could have nuclear weapons within “three to five years.”
Quote:
“Within three to five years… Iran will become autonomous in its ability to develop and produce a nuclear bomb.”

…and here….

Book Fighting Terrorism
Netanyahu repeated the same warning in his book.
Claim: Iran could have nuclear weapons within 3–5 years.

…and here…

1996 – U.S. Congress speech
Netanyahu warned that Iran obtaining nuclear weapons was imminent and catastrophic.
He said the deadline was “getting extremely close.”

…and here…

2009 – Meetings with U.S. Congress delegation
According to leaked U.S. diplomatic cables:
Netanyahu said Iran was “probably one or two years away” from nuclear weapons capability.

…and here…

2012 – United Nations General Assembly speech
Netanyahu used a famous cartoon bomb diagram to warn the world.
He said Iran was approaching a stage where it would be “a few months away” from enough enriched uranium for a bomb.

…and here…

2015 – Speech to U.S. Congress opposing Iran nuclear deal
Netanyahu argued the nuclear agreement would not stop Iran from getting a bomb, saying Iran was dangerously close to nuclear capability.

…and here…

2018 – “Iran nuclear archive” presentation
Netanyahu said Israeli intelligence proved Iran had been pursuing nuclear weapons and warned the threat remained imminent.

…and here…

2025 – Media interviews and statements
Netanyahu said intelligence showed Iran was “close to developing a nuclear weapon.”
He justified military strikes by saying Israel could not allow Iran to reach that point.

The War Scenario Every U.S. Administration Tried to Avoid

…Bibi has been pushing this line that Iran was just about to build a nuclear bomb and we need to attack them for 4 decades and the reason no American Administration was mad enough to go along with it was because every time they war game out the result, it turns into a blood filled quagmire that spirals out of control, creates regional wars, creates internal schism bloodbaths and the price of oil explodes.

Trump is the only American moron to get conned into Netanyahu’s blood feud with Iran and we are all going to pay the price!

What a $150 Barrel of Oil Means for New Zealand

What does that price look like?

$150US a barrel!

What does that mean to us?

$3.40 per litre.

The Iranians have capacity to continue fighting for 6 months…

Iran says can fight for months as Israel strikes Beirut hotel

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards has said the country’s forces could fight an intense war for six months against the United States and Israel, which said it struck Tehran’s commanders at a seaside hotel in the heart of Beirut.

As the conflict spilled into its second week, the regional repercussions spiralled, with Saudi Arabia intercepting a wave of drones headed for targets including the diplomatic quarter in capital Riyadh and Kuwait saying an attack hit fuel tanks at its international airport.

RNZ

Iran’s Strategy: Asymmetric Warfare and Endurance

…Iran knew they couldn’t win an outright war with America and Israel, so it’s all asymmetric warfare with religious fanatics as soldiers in that war.

Trump has already crossed Iran’s red line by assassinating the Ayatollah.

He will double down the closer we get to America and Israel running out of interceptor missiles.

Iran is playing rope-a-dope, taking the pain and surviving, waiting until the math turns to unleash their missiles the moment America and Israel can’t shoot them down.

This only gets worse, Trump was walked into a trap no one else dared to attempt.

Why New Zealand’s Silence Matters

That NZ seems incapable of criticising America and Israel for the war they are dragging us all into is a stain on our collective mana.

The danger in this conflict is not simply the missiles being launched today, but the economic and political shockwaves that follow. Wars in the Middle East have a habit of spiralling far beyond their original justifications, and if oil markets panic, ordinary New Zealanders will feel the cost every time they fill their cars or buy groceries. The question now is not whether the conflict escalates, but how much damage it will do before the world finally demands restraint.

Frequently Asked Questions

Could oil really reach $150 per barrel?
Yes. Historically, Middle East conflicts that threaten shipping lanes or major producers have caused dramatic spikes in oil prices. If Iran targets infrastructure or shipping in the Persian Gulf, analysts warn prices could surge rapidly.

How would $150 oil affect petrol prices in New Zealand?
New Zealand imports most of its fuel, so global oil price spikes feed directly into local pump prices. Estimates suggest petrol could exceed $3.40 per litre if oil reached $150 per barrel.

Why has Netanyahu warned about Iran’s nuclear program for decades?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly argued that Iran was close to developing nuclear weapons since the early 1990s, using the threat to justify international pressure and military preparedness.

Why is the Iran–Israel conflict considered globally dangerous?
A wider war involving Iran, Israel, and the United States could destabilise the entire Middle East, disrupt global oil supply routes, and pull regional powers into a prolonged conflict.