New Roy Morgan Poll shows splintering MMP spectrum and the Left need to win back male voters
National: 32.5% (-2.5)
Labour: 24% (-3.5)
Greens: 14% (-0.5)
ACT: 11% (+2)
NZF: 6.5% (+1)
TPM: 6% (+2.5)
TOP 4.5% (+2)
The MMP Spectrum is splintering as the extremists on the fringes win more support while the centre collapses.
The Rough Beast of Bethlehem is upon us…
…The Rough Beast of Bethlehem is Winston, Seymour and Luxon combined.
ACT, Māori Party, NZF and even TOP are popping while Labour, National and Greens go backwards.
The Darleen Tana Drama is starting to bite now.
ACT’s race baiting is gaining popularity.
NZF culture war revenge fantasies are keeping his Conspiracy Swamp bubbling over 5%.
TDB warned you that this government would implement a blitzkrieg of hard right policy, and so it has come to pass:
- Racist attack on local council Māori wards
- Cancelling Māori Health Authority
- Manufacturing public health crisis to justify cut backs.
- Repealing OT legislation forcing interaction with Iwi so they can green lighting a mass new tsunami of uplifts for Social Investment Bog Data investment.
- Throwing 50 000 beneficiaries off welfare including the disabled and drug addicts.
- Promising cancer patients 14 new drugs and only funding half of them for twice the price.
- Cancelling the Ferry’s only to spend more money for less Ferry!
- Rigging Charter schools
- Privatisation agenda in social housing
- Allowing property developers to create urban sprawl ghettos.
- Giving Chris Bishop, Simeon Brown and Dr Pork Shane Jones the power of Muldoon on meth with the Fast Track Powers!
- Taking $3billion from climate change funds.
- Allowing corporate dairy to avoid paying for their pollution.
- Pushing 17000 kids into poverty to pay for tax cuts we can’t afford.
- Dumping 3 waters to allow water rates to spike.
- Military Boot Camps that don’t work.
- Gutting public transport.
- Allowing Newshub to fall over so there is less scrutiny of policy.
- Allowing the donor calls to dictate policy.
- Bending over backwards for the Tobacco Industry, Mining Industry and Real Estate Pimps
- Allowing bosses to sack workers and Landlords to kick out renters
- Getting NZ into Americas latest military adventure in the Red Sea
- Tough on crime posturing that creates counter productive outcomes
- Massive cuts to public spending that will become austerity next year.
So can we admit this Government is not ‘moderate’ any longer? We can kill that myth?
The damage this hard right, racist climate denying beneficiary bashing Government has done is intergenerational.
The Prime Minister’s smug certitude when so many Kiwis are doing it hard alongside his inability to keep his Deputy’s inline made National’s Conference a more cynical event than normal.
They played photos of the previous Government to mock Labour as if the only point of a Political Party Conference is juvenile arrogance mixed with a misplaced sense of superiority.
It was white on ideas and whiter still on details.
Luxon complained about math and said he’d do something about math.
Hey kids, what’s 2 tobacco lobbyists minus any ethical morality whatsoever plus this Government equal?
Cough up your answer and show your working.
Somebody from the audience called on corporal punishment to be brought back to deal with Ram Raids and Mark Mitchell made some joke about that and the Party Conference laughed while everyone who had read the Royal Inquiry into State Abuse died a little bit inside.
Meanwhile, Chippy has moved from sausage rolls to pies…
…and might get to a wealth tax mid 2026.
Chloe better invoke the Waka jumping shortly because weakness breeds cynicism.
Diving into the numbers the issues are stark for the Left, the simple truth is that Idenity Politics has driven men away from us as a movement…
On an overall basis, men heavily favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government on 56%, well ahead of the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on only 38% – a gap of 18% points.
In contrast, a high plurality of women are behind the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 49.5% – ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 44.5% – a gap of 5% points.
Support for the governing coalition is strongest for older men. For men aged 50+ there are a massive 63.5% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First almost double the 34.5% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for the governing parties; National (38.5%) and ACT (17%) is stronger amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
For younger men aged 18-49 there is an edge for the governing coalition with 47.5% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to 42% that support the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori – a gap of 5.5% points.
The Holy Trinity of Woke Dogma are:
- ALL White people are irredeemable racists.
- B-E-L-I-E-V-E ALL Women that ALL Men are rapists
- Anyone supporting Free Speech is a uniform wearing Nazi who hates the Trans Community.
Pure Temple Politics demands you accept that Woke Dogma before you can join, using that Identity Filter drives male voters away from the movement.
This is a point I’ve been making for what, 5 years now?
Identity Politics is most dangerous when poor white people start seeing themselves as an identity.
Tell men they are the problem long enough and they become the problem.
Class binds us in solidarity, its pronouns are Us/We.
Middle Class activists posing for the ‘gram using hashtag politics, their pronouns are I/Me.
Alienating male voters is now accepted by actual students of politics and culture as a main problem for the Left.
Don’t believe me?
Here’s some of that evil Patriarchal Right Wing Rag, The Guardian for you..
The ex-president is courting a demographic drifting away from the Democrats. What’s driving the widening gender gap among young people?
…let me guess, let me guess, let me guess. Young Men are suffering more mental health issues, education problems and self harm driven by a system that alienates them and then lectures them on privilege creating a deep resentment because identity is the only thing that matters now..
Richard Reeves – whose 2022 book, Of Boys and Men, has become a foundational text on what has gone wrong for young men in the country – is damning of framing that puts young men’s rightward turn in terms of UFC fights and incels, when he believes it’s about deep-seated inequalities of outcome in education, mental health and employment.
“I want to talk about why only 60% of Black boys graduate high school on time in Michigan, or the fact that the share of male teachers has gone from 33% to 23%. Or that we’ve lost more than half the men who work in social work and psychology,” he says. “I’d want to talk about that rather than, for example, whether the Barbie movie was unfair on Ken.”
He says people are misinterpreting the polling. “It’s not enthusiasm for the reactionary right, it’s a sense of being taken for granted by the left. There are more young men shrugging their shoulders than raising their fists.”
It’s true that there is now a growing gender gap in education; for every 100 bachelor’s degrees awarded to women, 74 are awarded to men. In many US cities, young women are earning more than young men and moving out of parents’ homes earlier than them.
Reeves is careful to say that improving conditions for men and boys should not mean slowing down similar efforts for women and girls. But he says that government institutions do have a tendency to purposefully avoid naming the problems young men face. Suicide is one of the clearest areas in which there is a huge gender divide – there’s a fourfold gender gap in rates for young people – and yet, says Reeves, “the CDC website breaks down suicide rates by every demographic except gender. Why? Why don’t the Democrats have a taskforce on male suicide when there are 40,000 deaths a year?”
He gives other compelling examples of how Democrats have failed to signpost their achievements to young men. Biden’s infrastructure bill – his key piece of legislative success – was a huge jobs creator for working-class men, “but the administration tied itself in knots not to say so”. Instead, it focused on the million women in construction initiative to ensure women got some of the funding. “That’s amazing. Now, er, where’s the million men into teaching initiative? … There are so many initiatives for women in Stem; why not one for men in teaching? Who is going to attack that?”
On the Democrats’ own website is a page titled “who we serve” that lists 14 different groups. Men are not among them.
…BOOM!
Nuttin’ but Net, nuttin’ but Net!
The article points out that young men are turning Right because they’ve been pushed out of the Left because Identity Politics states the worst human being in the world is a white male who must apologise every 90 minutes for having a Penis.
And I’m talking the awful heteronormative penis, not the beautiful amazing non-binary penis so popular in Wellington these days.
The Middle Class Woke Activism may have not been the great tactic so many on the NZ Left thought it was.
If the Left wants to win, it needs to win back male voters.
The true demarcation of power in a. capitalist democracy is the 1% richest plus their 9% enablers vs the 90% rest of us.
Once you understand power in that framework, we can never lose an election!
This is probably why Luxon is now the Minister of Education. Rather than grow a pair and put Seymour and Peters back in their place, he’s treating Erica Stanford like she’s superfluous and taking air time.
good point he is scared shitless she will roll him in the next year .Good Christian that he is the little woman belongs in the kitchen
Erica Stanford would be a lot better choice for the Nats – seems to be some real conviction behind her words rather than just ‘meaningless management speak’ . .
TPM made the biggest gains so the maori bashing is not working
It seems to me the Māori bashing (which is largely identity politics) has resulted in the Māori Party becoming more radical.
Appealing more towards activists opposed to the wider voter base. In turn, further stirring up the rednecks.
Thus, they’re feeding into each other.
Further, the more radical the Māori Party becomes, the more difficult it is for the Greens and Labour to be able to form a coalition with them.
In the 2024 UK election turnout was estimated as low as 60%. Labour received 33%, basically a landslide meaning 4 out of 5 Brits did not vote for them.
On that basis Labour NZ and Labour UK should be worried, the old working class don’t support them anymore. I don’t buy that it is wokery or inverse racism or personality politics turning working people off Labour. It’s economics. When did you last hear Labour go after the wealthy or advocate measures to radically alter inequality?
AND IN THAT CASE THE TORRIES MUST HAVE 5% OF THE VOTE THEN AS THEY WERE SENT DOWN THE DRAIN .
The Darleen Tana saga has little impact on most peoples lives.
Therefore, I think it is more a case of Chloe failing to shine.
She has failed to successfully take control of the narrative and capture the issues most impacting voters lives.
These far more resonating issues should be her talking points. From which she can build, widen and grow the party’s support.
Things like the ongoing increases in the cost of rates and insurance which both result in higher rents. Rather then dividing and alienating voters by solely focusing on rent increases alone.
She needs to focus on what unites and impacts us all.
The soaring cost of power is another issue that we all face and on which, she could grow their support on. Moreover, it fully aligns with their warm and dry homes policy.
Instead, they announce their support for hate speech laws that most voters don’t want or support.
And their open letter to the PM, which was a half-arse effort that left them looking incompetent.
You just hate Chloe. A bitter old boomer, still clinging to his term deposit and his million dollar house, and rental portfolio, slowly screwing the workers of this country,
That was criticism coupled with some advice, Millsy.
The fact you thought it was hatred is a good example of why we don’t want hate speech laws.
We don’t want our right to criticise being silenced because some over sensitive woke clown thinks it’s hatred.
Whatever. As I said before, you just want life to go on as it is. Have your rental portfolio, your term deposits, you Ford Ranger, being able to jack the rent up when you want a trip to Fiji, never mind that living standards in this country have fallen on the past 30 years, because rich pricks like you dont want to pay tax.
Didnt I read you calling for mass execution of trans people?
millsy Stop drinking vinegar in an effort to purify and clean yourself inside out!
The Chairman I hope Chloe takes note of your ideas. Perhaps you can update us on something she and the Greens are doing right. I hope they are working on being vibrant greens and not wilting with yellow patches as is noticeable in my garden which I think is from myrtle rust. Watch out for that Myrtle all you Greens. It weakens and kills already weakened growths. And they may recover from careful pruning and growth-encouraging treatment.
Who will they replace chippy with Bob, as all the good candidate s left or were fired.
Black mould or Hamilton STD rates would outperform Hipkins.
Of which you have both carryon.
NZ is going through its own “Trump” years, hopefully we move on sooner than later.
Here’s a curiosity: TOP, The Opportunities Party, registering 4.5% in a poll, possibly the highest it’s polled in its history. But TOP as far as I know is leaderless (Raf Manji retired after last year’s election) and the party is almost invisible in news media, apparently with nothing to say about anything.
So I wonder if TOP’s 4.5% poll rating is simply a despairing message from those polled to the whole of Parliament: ‘A plague on all your houses!’
Thoughtful comment and have to agree. We are sick of all of them.
If you think you ought to be an MP you are probably not well suited to being an MP.
Where are all the people we used to have with high ideals and integrity.
People who put NZ/Aotearoa first, wanted the best for us. Not undermining us constantly.
Those pretending to lead us have shown themselves to be self-serving and lacking in any credibility as leaders or decision makers. Many of them are complete jokes and if it wasn’t so serious it would be hilarious.
It’s hard to read your post. Even harder to think of the toils of mind you put in to compile it. I think this is a very sapient point.
Chloe better invoke the Waka jumping shortly because weakness breeds cynicism.
One thing the current situation proves is that our elected MPs are not serving to make the country better or to help the people because if they were genuine you would think that enough MPs from National, Labour, The Greens and TMP would say that we need to form a sensible government to get rid of the current mess. I left out ACT and NZ First because Jesus said “not to cast your pearls before swine” and it is overwhelmingly demonstrated that they do not have the ability required.
Jesus said some kindly and practical things eh.
While 1 Samuel 12:1-5 was not said by Jesus it sets a standard that this government has failed which exposes the hypocrisy of Luxon’s claim to be Christian.
If you vote NACT/NZF, you vote for withholding payrises to the workers of this country,
Rent, when decrease, see this late decreses, as america semi collapse, rent decrease dream on.
There is a art of pastry makin, flour salt butter, outside other pasrty makin, but a serious art care of produce. Who, makin, the pie.
Nact the coalition of old stale pale male policies.
what best pie.
Everything this government is doing is under urgency in the dead of night with rookie MPs at the helm. The ministers sit there on their phones not answering questions. They know they have the numbers so they don’t have to work at anything and you call this democracy. They are playing a dangerous game of racism politics and people have the gall to blame the Maori party for fighting back. If people can’t see that we are fast heading down a track of no return . Bring on the Maori for high days and holidays I say then put them back in their box where they belong, this is where we are heading and anyone who says different has got their heads in the sand and the boomers will get the country they deserve and bugger every one else