Yes, the election is as close as TDB has been telling you
Good to see the mainstream media slowly catching up with The Daily Blog again.
This time, the election is as close as TDB has been telling you…
Election 2023: Can Labour win from here?
Labour/the Greens/Te Pāti Māori would have 61 seats & National/ACT would get 59 if:
– Labour rises by 2.1%
– Greens rise by 1%
– National falls by 1%
– ACT drops 1%
– NZ First drops 1%
– TPM unchanged
Using the Herald Poll of Polls as the starting point, the following scenario, as an example, would lead to a Labour-led Government, with National and Act on 59 seats and Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori on 61 seats:
National, currently on 35.8 per cent, falls by 1 point to 34.8 per cent.
Labour, currently on 26.8 per cent, rises by 2.1 points to 28.9 per cent.
The Greens, currently on 12. 3 per cent, rise by 1 point to 13.3 per cent.
Act, currently on 10.6 per cent, drops by 1 point to 9.6 per cent.
New Zealand First, currently on 5.7 per cent, drops by 1 point to 4.7 per cent.
Te Pāti Māori, on 2.8 per cent, remains unchanged.
In this scenario, the movement is generally a three-point movement away from the centre-right to the left.
Folks, TDB has been telling you that the election is far closer than the mainstream media pretend in it is.
You can either read it here first or wait for the media to trip over it.
If the Left votes, the Left wins.
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Planning to go do my two ticks Green on friday
If the left vote, the left win!
thank you marty you given me hope we can keep national out and it would good result as minor partys could extract some teal reforms
Not sure how this could even happen, Labour are that bad — unless they run an extremely negative scare campaign.
i think the greens are going to do better than media thinks
Mike Hipkins saying that New Zealand will be seeing more of Jacinda Ardern will knock a few more votes off Labour.
Even the acceptable face of the Greens is laying low
What do you mean
Jack means lying low. Poor English skills.
Both are acceptable and are dictionary definitions train spotter
Jack Is that the Indian lady who says that white people are stupid and defund the police; one who escaped from Invercargill to write Gender Change for Dummies, or Marama or Golriz, or one who waka jumped ? One who stole another’s girlfriend?
Nah SW, it was the one who stole the name of a dead baby for his personal use, ACT MP.
Not as bad as the Act Dunedin candidate taking his lead from Seemore (his boss) making his Maori gaza strip nasty racist comment.
National under 35, Labour over 30.
ACT under 10 and Greens 15%.
The problem might be ACT falling so far they meet NZF at 6-8%.
Which means Luxon gets first go at forming a government – a 1996 scenario would end differently with NZF sans waka jumping giving a Labour leader a chance at forming a government within 18 months.
Not as bad as the Act Dunedin candidate taking his lead from Seemore (his boss) making his Maori gaza strip nasty racist comment.
I have just woke up from wanting to vote Act through pure hatred of Ardern’s treachery. I know she betrayed us renters but NACT hate us even more. Holding nose with a clamp, voting Labour.
But that presupposes NZF will drop below the threshold. Not going to happen.
The rest maybe but NZF will be 5% at least.
All forgetting Ilam. Ilam will decide the makeup of the government.
As someone watching the polls, then comparing them to the election results, over the past 50 years, I can confirm that Labour consistently does better by 2 to 4%, and the Greens do better by 3 to 5%. Put those numbers against current polling and the left should be able to form a government, but it will be one that is under a lot more pressure from the real left. The second thing to remember is that 4 out of the 6 polls are right wing polls, one is fairly neutral and the last is the most neutral, but none are left apart from internal polling. As at today early voting has been open for a week, so it’s the swing vote and lazy vote that’s yet to come.