Latest Internal Poll: Labour up, Greens plunge & Māori Party Kingmakers

Good to see Newshub Nation catching up with a 3 year old TDB talking point regarding the rise of ACT.

Comrades, you can read it here first on The Daily Blog or wait 3 years for a NZ on Air taxpayer funded current affairs show to pick it up 3 years later.

Latest internal Talbot poll is out and makes for fascinating reading:

LABOUR – 36%

NATIONAL – 35%

ACT – 11%

GREENS – 7%

Maori Party are kingmakers and most interestingly, Chippy has gone up 6point to 38% preferred PM against Luxon dropping down to 23%.

What is infuriating Right Wing strategists is that no matter the Labour Party fuck ups and lack of real progress on the big issues is that Labour’s vote is holding and solidifying.

The problem for National is the more extreme ACT gets with their subhuman and Mogadishu comments (alongside their radioactive Treaty referendum and extreme amputation of the State) the more it scares the bejesus out of the middle.

Those middle voters see the extremism of an ACT/National Government and have picked sides with Labour so no matter how Labour MPs fuck up, the middle voter is voting Labour because an ACT/National Government is simply too extreme for serious contemplation.

The polarisation on the right is an existential crisis to National and it will continue to be so as Green Party middle class woke identity politics activists keep handing ACT culture war ammunition.

This election the power is in the cross benches.

NZF, TOP, the Māori Party and now ACT have all stated they will sit on the cross benches rather than join a Government.

In NZ, all a Party needs to form the Government is a segment to the Governor General that the can get a majority vote for their budget.

That’s it.

Previously with MMP most smaller parties become part of the Government and get tripped up by the collective responsibility obligations of Cabinet and tend to get blamed for decisions while gaining little in wins.

What we are seeing this election is smaller parties choosing the cross benches and instead off being bound by majority decisions, will wait for the legislation to come to them and then cherry pick what they want.

We haven’t seen that type of MMP before, but it’s very much how MMP works overseas.

Take the example of a Labour led minority Government with supply and confidence with the Māori Party.

The Māori Party would demand concessions from the Labour led minority Government in exchange for their supply and confidence vote and then move to the cross benches on all other policy.

If the Māori Party make demands on legislation that the Labour led minority Government felt was too extreme, that leaves the Labour led minority Government to go to National to get the votes instead, so there is a built in hand break to stop policy that is too extreme.

Seeing as Labour and National vote together 70% of the time, this isn’t much of an issue.

NZers have had a very FPP MMP for 30 years, this election looks to splinter the MMP spectrum and deliver us a very different style of democracy.

I think that would be a far better outcome.

 

 

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