New Poll: Hung Parliament – here comes the Rough Beast of Te Puke
And another Poll is out, this time the internal Talbot and it is showing the intense polarisation the Horizon Poll highlights, but this time shows a hung Parliament!
National and Labour ‘deadlock’- new poll
A new poll has Labour and National almost deadlocked, with just one point between them, but for the first time in five years, Labour’s pollsters have found Labour and the Greens could not form a Government, even they were helped by NZ First or Te Pāti Māori.
For the first time in 14 years, more people feel negatively about the direction of the country than think it is heading on the right track.
The latest commercial poll from Talbot Mills, who also poll for the Labour Party, has National on 37 per cent with Labour on 36 per cent. The poll was obtained by Newstalk ZB.
Act is on 10 per cent and the Greens on 9 per cent.
What does it all mean?
The Bank of England expects the UK economy to tank after inflation peaks at 13% in the fourth quarter this year and remain elevated throughout 2023 despite the economy already entering a recession in the fourth quarter this year as well.
This is before the impact of Russia cutting gas and the impacts that will cause Europe and Italian Banks spreads as inflation ruptures throughout the Eurozone.
Bank of America is predicting a deep American recession this year and the mega droughts caused by catastrophic climate change are impacting food growing nations.
China is facing economic carnage from their zero covid plan while a looming property market collapse could cause untold damage inside the Chinese economy.
The fact we are neck and neck with a hung Parliament shows how divided and polarised we have become with the worst yet to hit.
If we are this extreme now, how much further will the political spectrum have fractured by the time of the election next year?
We have lived through a political period of time since MMP that has managed to dilute and temper the idealogical extremes of Left/Right politics in NZ.
The need to compromise and pull punches is fundamental to the MMP dynamic HOWEVER that completely gets thrown out the window if there is no political centre left.
The political centre has been hollowed out so much under MMP that Labour and National are almost indistinguishable in their acquiescence to neoliberal mantra.
The far left and far right have enormous pent up political tension that will rupture once Labour or National are dependent on their numbers for a majority.
These highly polarised times have the potential to create an outcome that is hated regardless of which side wins.
Increasingly having independent opinion in a mainstream media environment which mostly echo one another has become more important than ever, so if you value having an independent voice – please donate here.
If you can’t contribute but want to help, please always feel free to share our blogs on social media
Great quote. WB Yeats was Irish wasn’t he. I’ve yet to read. Heard he ihas written in the everday language and takes concentration to pick up meaning. Often my brain is tired after reading the news and here, much concentration used up alrea
Note to myself – keep trying.to find the instructions on how to tame the rough beast. I heard a great interview by RadioNZ’s Jesse Mulligan on using (I think I heard) dry ice for rats. NZ in Auckland had, a decade or so ago, the biggest colony ever seen in the world. Woo hoo we are tops again. But um… https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/afternoons/audio/2018853098/central-auckland-rat-infestation-out-of-control
This is definitely connected with politics. When National got in after neo lib started Jenny Shipley wanted to make dealing with wasps an individual’s problem, you were to be left to cope on your own or pay for an exterminator. It probably applied to rats also. Schools couldn’t cope with wasps disturbing outdoor activities. National would show the same desire for personal responsibility in any problem area, made worse by climate and political change; brought to you by Labour serving themselves since 1984. Yes but- National was happy to jump into the spa pool, the water was warm and cosy, and they carried on.
National will always divide up the country till the poor and not-blue rural areas are left to suck on the stone that the punters have been hit with, fight yheir own fires, rebuild their own housing etc. Those citizens with a brain left, not soaked in advantage and hubris, should vote for Labour again. That is showing intelligence and pragmatism, not making futile gestures, not sticking out for pie-in-the-sky, but choosing the bitter medicine that is the least poisonous.
I blame the radicalization of State Media. State Media cronyism is a huge problem in NZ.
State Media are failing and they know it. They are manipulative, polarizing and damaging to the fabric of NZ society. However, Kiwi’s are building a new and better Main Stream Media, that is fast being recognized as such.
If the Ardernists are thrown out of office next year, it is likely that State Media is rightly removed from the gravy train. This would be undeniably positive for NZ society.
Coming into next year’s general election; the new, upcoming Main Stream Media will have to work extra hard, with limited resources to counter Ardernist, State Media narratives which are backed by a flood of taxpayer’s money.
The UK and the USA ought to rally together in all of this, as the collaboration in trade, foreign policy, etc, between two nations such as these, developed countries entering a looming deep recession amidst a global pandemic, ought to strengthen both their economies.
I have to assume, judging by the comments I’m hearing around me during the day, is that there is very little, or no support for the tories, and even while people aren’t particularly impressed with the current watered down Labour party, they still feel like the they are amenable to public pressure.. Tho tories have proved conclusively that people immolating themselves on the streets wouldn’t make a skerrick of difference to a national party government, and will be taken as proof that a militarised police force is a necessity to “keep law abiding citizens” safe… We still have a year before the polls, so there is more than enough time to make a decisive change that will leave the tories exactly where they should be. An embarrassing historical throwback to the days of brutality, and genocidal warfare upon established societies that didn’t possess the engineering skills to manufacture their murder weapons… But, we must always remember that NZ ids just three little islands out in the middle of nowhere, and don’t we behave like it…!!
I can see NZ First going with National as Winston would enjoy Luxon as his new political play thing… however I can’t see ACT wanting get into bed with NZ First
It would be the death of Winstons’ cred if he did.
In Memory of W.B. Yeats
…….
“ Now he is scattered among a hundred cities
And wholly given over to unfamiliar affections,
To find happiness in another kind of wood
And be punished under a foreign code of conscience.
The words of a dead man
Are modified in the guts of the living.”
W.H.Auden.
Musee des Beaux Arts
About suffering they were never wrong,
The Old Masters, how well they understood
It’s human position;
……
How, when the aged are reverently, passionately waiting
For the miraculous birth, there always must be
Children who did not want specially want it to happen
…..
W.H. Auden
Beautiful quotes Snow White. Everywhere the wizards or rather the sorcerers are holding the soul of humanity prisoner in the somber walled and withered garden.
From the logical positivists to the death of all intellectual and philosophical light because no brat anywhere as far as one can make out wants anything else to happen. The preference is for the rough beast.
I’m looking forward to hearing the tax cut policies / promises / bribes from all parties. Hopefully the tax brackets will be updated, pension will be means tested, and a brave party will bring in more capital gains tax. Democracy is dead. Take what you can get. Best policy gets my vote
Changing tax brackets makes a difference only in an inflationary situation, but in such a situation the dollars ghat the government receives are also devalued, so the bracket change becomes rather pointless.
Not to me it wouldn’t 🙂