New Political Poll has country at risk of Hung Parliament  

National – 33

Labour – 32.5

Greens – 12

NZF – 10

ACT – 7.5

MP – 2.5

The latest poll for Roy Morgan from last year shows the election is on a knife edge and is close enough to be a possible Hung Parliament.

The biggest issue  when you dig into the data is the massive gender distortion.

Thanks to our alienating middle class identity politics crew, they alienated male voters so much so that they drove them in to the arms of the reactionary right…

A clear majority of 56.5% of women support the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition compared to 42.5% that support the National-led Government. In contrast, a majority of 58% of men favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 37.5% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party.

…good one wokies. We get it, your manufactured identity is more important than the common ground between us.

Hush now and stay on BlueSky where no one gives a fuck.

Here’s how I see the Political Parties:

National spinelessness: What is most interesting about the date is that they dared not announce it during his State of the nation Speech because it was so meaningless and empty that the Election Date announcement would have overshadowed the entire speech, that’s how vacuous Luxon is.

The next most interesting part is that they clearly don’t believe any of their own hype that the green shoots of recovery are here and are waiting as long as they can in a Hail Mary pass that the economy will turn some mythical corner altho it is never going to turn, as Bernard Hickey points out…

The problem for Luxon is his Government is relying on a 1990s and mid-2000s strategy of businesses and households stepping forward to spend their savings and borrow more to invest and spend in shops, car dealerships and in the housing market. Back then, the private sector replaced the Government’s stimulus because spenders were younger and less-indebted, interest rates were cut by more, and businesses used to borrow from banks to expand. Neither have done that since 2019.

…after 2 years National have nothing to show the people other than crony capitalism and culture war revenge fantasies masquerading as social policy.

This announcement, days after the Speech highlights that National are frightened.

They can’t roll Luxon this close to the election and they are simply hoping the economy responds to their vandalism and mutilation by edging house prices up to ensure their rump voters get out to vote.

That’s all National have, hope and desperation.

The malice of ACT’s libertarian economic and social vandalism: NZFirst voters are lonely old racists scared by eclipses, where as ACT supporters are gleefully willing sadists who burn books with relish and ideological zeal. Most NZFirst voters wouldn’t know what ideological meant, or zeal. What you can excuse in the celebration of ignorance that is NZFirst voters you can’t ignore in the wilful malice of ACT voters. If you are still willing to buy into the race war, public service mutilating, zionist appeasing libertarianism that ACT have displayed over the last 2 years, you are corrupted and infested beyond reason. Aggressive use of napalm is the only solution here.

NZFirst Gumboot Fascism will rise like a toxic fart from Nigel Farage. They are simply the worst. Their mix of redneck cracker philosophy alongside the sexual excitement generated whenever Winston or Shane attacks immigrant MPs, environmentalists or the Treaty mark them out as racist conspiracy theorists who should be avoided at all cost. Their culture war boomer electorate will never turn from their bigotry or petty prejudices. They can not be reasoned with, nor should anyone ever try! The moment you hear a family member is voting NZF, cut them off immediately and sow the space between you with salt. The next time a pandemic occurs that kills Boomers and leaves everyone else ok, we should just let God do his work. The good news is that the millisecond Winston dies, this cult of personality will die too because most culture war boomers are so socially isolated now that they don’t have the emotional skill set to like new things. Once Winston is gone, NZ First is buried with him and lots of culture war boomers will fill that empty space by getting crypto scammed.

The importance of a self-mutilating Māori Party: If they can’t work their shit out they will destroy the Left’s chance of winning the election. The best they can hope for is 4 seats that creates an overhang, the worst is they only hold onto 2 seats. Dumping Debbie, Rawiri and JT would leave them utterly rudderless.

The Green’s Last Stand: If the Greens lose their 3rd party ranking to NZ First, they will deserve to be held hostage to a Labour/NZFirst Government. The enormous wave of young people fleeing NZ will have an immediate impact on Green vote so they need to urgently chase that overseas vote. They also need to reach out to the 15% of the non-vote who walked away from voting for Labour and were too heart broken to vote for anyone else. The Greens need to inspire that Labour non-vote into voting Green. If the Greens can’t formulate a Labour + Green + Māori Party Government, it will be our last chance to elect a Government that can actually embark upon the policy shifts and structural hegemony  needed.

The danger of Labour’s Feeble Incrementalism: They just need to sit back, promise nothing and implement a less cruel management team. Never underestimate Labour’s capacity to become very middle class incremental on the big issues. This is why they need to have a searing negotiation process via Greens + Māori Party post the election, they will never do the things needed on their own.

In 2026, the economy will continue to falter thanks to the neoliberal economic vandalism of this hard Right Government and society will become more polarised thanks to social media hate algorithms.

The damage being caused to the capacity of the State to solve the economic inequalities, necessary environmental adaptation and public service provision is masked by culture war revenge fantasies masquerading as social policy.

We need real Left solutions like Zamdani is championing, not the incremental mediocrity that Keir Starmer manufactures.

So what are the best, worst and most likely outcomes this year for the NZ Left in the 2026 Election?

The best outcome for the Political Left in 2026:

Māori Party holds 4 seats and has a low party vote that trigger’s an overhang, the Greens reach out to Australia special votes and brings in the non vote while Labour holds the middle which = 51%. The Greens and MP form a united negotiating front and forces Labour to adopt a genuinely progressive Zamdani platform.

The reality is that the Greens are what one would term, ‘weak arsed pussies’. Maybe it’s the veganism and lack of iron, but the Greens have all the offensive capacity of slow growing moss. Their ability to be bullied by Labour into meaningless incremental nothings is well recorded and the naked truth is that they NEED an arsehole like John Tamihere in a united negotiating front to ensure they don’t get played by Labour again.

The worst outcome for the Political Left in 2026

NZF + National + ACT are re-elected and cement into place their 19th Century White Settler privilege and continue to strangle the common good for their donors interests. Massive State Sale Programme begins and permanently mutilates the State.

If these Right wing arseholes win a second term, they will cement into place their anti-Māori, anti-Treaty, anti-environment, anti-worker, anti-renter, anti-disabled and anti-beneficiary agenda to strangle the common good for their donors interests. 19th Century White Settler privilege will become the default position on all social and economic issues.

The most likely outcome for the Political Left in 2026

If the Greens lose their 3rd place Party ranking to NZFirst, Winston calls the shots and will form a Government with Labour, making the Greens slaves while becoming a handbrake on any public good.

If Te Pati Māori can not sort their shit out (thanks to Doc, thank to Mariameno and thanks to  Eru), if they continue to blame Tamihere for protecting the leadership and splinter like flakes, Winston will simply tell the electorate he is the only one who can protect NZ from Te Pati Māori instability and they will force the Greens to accept a deal where they are once again the abused partner in a Government arrangement where they have zero influence.

Look.

Civil Society is a nightmare, debate has become All-Village-No-Tribe, The Right are doubling down on malice and spite while the Left are busy either being feckless or cancelling anyone misusing pronouns.

We are here…

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