The difference between the TVNZ and RNZ Poll masks the reality of all the Polls put together which show National vote collapsing while Labour builds.

It highlights the real momentum and power of culture war spite with the surge in NZF but also the limitations of polarisation when it gleams too clever with the collapse of ACT.

Winston’s bigotry is against Māori ‘elites’, promotes anti-vaccine nuttiness and loves bashing the trans movement where as David’s bigotry attempts to be too clever by parading it as one law for all pretensions which isn’t book burny enough for NZF supporters.

Kiwis like their racism casual and their fascism gumboot, ACTs far right agenda ticks the race baiting qualities the reactionary vote loves, but not enough street bashings for Trans and people who support vaccines.

National continues to lose votes as Winston and David compete to burn down the local library. Winston wants to burn it down because his supporters hate words while David wants to burn the local library down because his voters don’t like sharing anything with poor people.

There are of course political winners and losers.

WINNERS:

Chippy + Labour: Chippy has been making some of the best speeches of his career, his leadership over the Maori Party MPs punishment, his leadership against the budget, his leadership against the Pay Parity knee capping – he’s showing values and qualities far deeper than woeful Chris Luxon and as Kiwis turn in disgust from the culture war revenge fantasies as social policy, Labour builds votes.

Green Party: Showed real vision with their alternative Budget and have been politically rewarded with support for providing an actual vision. The continuing venality and selfishness of the budget for National Party donor interests is striking a chord with younger voters and the ongoing climate crisis keeps proving the Greens right.

Culture war hate: You can’t ignore the steady, steady rise of NZF off the back of their anti-trans, anti-Treaty, anti-vaccine, climate denial stance on everything.  Don’t forget, there are stanch 1% Political Parties with the same fringe alt-Right conspiracy theories all sitting out there from which NZF can still draw support from.

Maori Party: Off the back of the most racist Privileges Committee punishment, the Māori Party have become martyrs to the cause and their growing support is drawing in Māori who have never voted before more than they are taking from the Greens or Labour.

LOSERS:

National: Many of the voters who voted Labour in 2020 and then voted National in 2023 did so because they were hoping their house price would go up 10%, they sure as Christ weren’t voting for a race war and crazy anti vaxx crap from Winston. Those voters are walking back to Labour while the truly redneck National vote is being tempted away by ACT and NZF. National are getting hit on all fronts and with such a weak Prime Minister alongside the economic fall out we will feel this Winter, all point to National dropping below 30 before the end of the year.

Luxon: Nothing sums up the weakness of Luxon quite like this photo…

…he’s a bald man wearing a hairnet. That is actually what he represents politically as a leader.

ACT: When David Seymour is at his best, he is unstoppable. His destruction of Guy Williams at the beginning of the year was brutal. He is quick on his feet and can be very clever with his one liner comebacks, but the problem for David is that the redneck reactionary vote he has helped inspire want violent fantasies rather than libertarian philosophy. They want to bash Trans people up, they want to hang people who support vaccines, they want to burn down environmentalists, and that want carries them all over to Winston. The redneck voters ACT have aroused want more than fringe right wing free market economics, they want a lynching and David doesn’t have the rope for that.

Kneecapped Pay Parity Workers: Despite everything the almost 500 000 workers impacted by this have had $12billion taken from their pockets and put into the hands of the bosses, the polls may move, but they are still the losers.

Environment: This government has gutted our environment budgets at a time when climate change is hurting us more and more. The Polls may move but not fast enough for the environment.

State Tenants: National keep punching down on the most vulnerable tenants and have cut a billion from emergency housing. Only the homeless keep growing in number.

Beneficiaries: The latest range of punitive sanctions are about to hit beneficiaries hard and with cruelty.

NZ Economy: Continues to go down the gurgler with Business Confidence down. 4th month in a row and over 1o0 Kiwis fleeing NZ for Australia every day.

PREDICTIONS:

Winstons’ ‘scribbles on his face’ comment to Rawiri could really damage Māori NZF voters. Of all the things Winston has said over the ages, that is the most racist and offensive and I really wonder how many older Māori NZF voters will feel when hearing him be so egregious in his cruelty.

If NZF starts sinking as well as ACT and National, it makes the possibility of a one term Government much more likely.

If NZF decide to dig their heels in on the Regulatory Standards Bill, that could build NZF at ACTs expense which would suit Winston.

Labour have to come up with some policy and the Greens should immediately sit down with the Maori Party for a shared platform to ensure Labour can”t screw them both over with NZF.

National are in deep trouble as NZF, ACT and Labour all take bites from the incredibly weak Luxon.

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