Another peace negotiation in Istanbul is rapidly approaching, however it is unlikely to result in any significant change. Aside from Putin’s recalcitrance, the key consideration for effective negotiation is the US position. The US president continues to vacillate. President Trump talked tough this week, the BBC reporting on 29 May that “US President Donald Trump has appeared to set a two-week deadline for Vladimir Putin, threatening a different response if the Russian counterpart was still stringing him along.” However, Trump’s words again failed to transfer into action.
Until Trump establishes a clear US position, European leaders are hamstrung and leaving Putin emboldened. Europe’s leaders are walking a delicate diplomatic tightrope, trying to balance taking a hard line against Russia with managing the Trump White House. The rise of authoritarianism around the world, and increasing diplomatic coordination between authoritarian regimes worries European leaders. Who are trying hard to avoid providing the Trump White House with an excuse to split from Europe at a dangerous time.
Therefore, Europe is currently taking a backseat, letting the US set the tempo of the negotiation. A pragmatic approach, motivated by needing to keep the US onside and integrated in NATO in case China, North Korea or Iran threaten European interests.
Strategically, Trump is not demonstrating a willingness to transfer talk into action, and Putin understands that ‘talk is cheap.’ It also appears that Putin believes Trump is weak and can be kept at bay with demonstrations of resolve and force. For example, Trump’s statements cautioning Russia, or demanding good faith negotiation are invariably met with more and larger attacks on Ukraine.
Putin is not a grand master of strategy; his tactics are simple. He attacks Ukraine with impunity, while concurrently charming Trump. Until the US reacts with firm actions, Putin will continue to demonstrate that he is in charge, that he sets the tempo, and that his Russia is not afraid of Trump. Probably, Putin believes that Trump will crack under the pressure and walk away blaming Europe, Ukraine and Russia for the failure to secure a ceasefire.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine and across Russia the war continues.
The military situation in Ukraine
At operational-level, the campaign is evolving since the last article. After a brief pause Russia is now intensifying its ground operations, and appears to be threatening Ukraine’s north-east flank near Sumy. A Russian concentration of force has been present in Belgorod for more than a month, and the border is regularly attacked.
Russia appears to be holding forces here to threaten Sumy, a town immediately across the border, creating a dilemma for Ukraine by forcing its leader to choose whether to send troops there, or to support other parts of the frontline. Specifically, whether Ukraine can spare troops to reinforce the area around Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces are currently massed in Donetsk, and attacking between Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka. Last week, we reported that Russian forces have cut the H-35 motor way that links Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka.
Throughout the last year Russian forces have been concentrating on this part of Donetsk. Russian forces slipping north or south, trying to find a weak spot and capture an important logistics hub, either Pokrovsk or Kostyantynivka. Russia needs a town with road and rail junctions as a base for operations to capture Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
At this stage Russia’s main effort appears to have switched away from Pokrovsk and is now focussed on Kostyantynivka. We can expect to see Russian forces; expand their existing position on H-35, and simultaneously advance from around Toretsk toward H-35 (shown in transparent red arrows, on the map). Last week, Russian forces made several large and sudden advances near Torestsk, and Russian forces are still advancing slowly in this area.
Enveloping Kostyantynivka from the south, then later using this town as a logistics base for an advance on Kramatorsk (shown in transparent red arrows, on the map) appears to be the Russian plan. However, the rate of advance seems to be slowing, as Ukraine stabilises the situation.
However, a notable feature of the war since the large Ukrainian offensives in late 2022 is that once Russia takes ground it tends to be able to hold it. Therefore, the capture of the ground around the H-32 motorway is concerning because it means Russia control an important road, and is unlikely to be pushed off it. A tactically significant victory for Russia, and a situation that could provide a basis for developing more momentum.
The remainder of the frontline saw consistent activity last week, with especially strong Russian attacks near Kurakhove, Velkya Novisilika and Kupyansk. Russian attacks around Kurakhove and Velkya Novisilika are probably supporting efforts to envelop Pokrovsk from the south.
Further north, near Kupyansk, Russian forces are trying to secure a defensive line along the Oskil River, and push south towards Lyman, a town that is a major transport hub. Russia lost Lyman in 2022, along with an enormous amount of equipment. If captured, Lyman provides a base to advance from the north towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Although none of these attacks were successful, they demonstrate that Russia is still able to maintain offensive activity.
Ukraine’s drone wall
Recently, mainstream media started discussing Ukraine’s ‘drone wall,’ a plan to fortify the border using drones. For example, on 29 May CNN reported that “The Ukrainians are trying to expand their own drone industry to create defensive corridors along key sections of the front line, often dubbed the “drone wall” and a week earlier the Guardian reported that “Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK has said Kyiv should focus on fighting a “hi-tech war of survival that minimises the loss of its military personnel and not expect to recapture Russian-occupied territory, including Crimea and in the Donbas.”
Ukraine’s plan involves creating a ‘kill web,’ an area in which ubiquitous surveillance, digital communications, artillery and drones work together to create a dense defensive fire zone. The zone would be approximately 10-15km deep and would inflict heavy casualties on any attacking force.
The media coverage is interesting; but Ukraine is already deploying these capabilities to help to offset Russia’s numeric advantages. Interpreting this information there seem to be two broad assessments; either Ukraine is aiming to defend most of its frontline with less soldiers releasing some for offensive operations, or Ukraine is running out of soldiers and the drone wall is required to prevent Russian advances. Time will tell which of these assessments is correct and as Ukraine adapts its tactics on the battlefield, international support continues to evolve.
European support increases
Regardless of the need to manage Trump, European nations are also increasing their aid to Ukraine. Germany recently removed restrictions on the use of Taurus missiles, and announced a deal to work with Ukraine to develop long-range missiles. German Chancellor Merz stating that “Our defence ministers will sign a memorandum of understanding today regarding the procurement of Ukrainian-made long-range weapons systems.” Alongside this deal, Germany also committed another Euro 5 billion in aid.
Across Europe countries are increasing their support for Ukraine, specially helping it to expand its defence industrial base. For example, Denmark recently passed laws allowing their country to pay Ukrainian companies for equipment. This model supports Ukraine, and builds the nation’s defence industry. Already, Denmark has allocated Euro 800 million to this programme.
Sweden also recently announced a US$ $499 million aid package, US$ 104 million of which will be delivered using the Danish model. A method that we are likely to see used more often as European nations try to strengthen Ukraine’s defence industry, and take advantage of its efficiency to deliver weapons more quickly than can be delivered through their own defence procurement processes.
Additionally, the European Union approved the first phase of its ReArm Europe plan. A plan that includes governance arrangements for common defence procurement, the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) financial instrument. This initiative allows greater efficiency for purchasing a range of military equipment, Ukraine is eligible to receive funding through the programme and to purchase European equipment more easily.
This activity is noteworthy because it demonstrates an unintended consequence of the Trump White House’s chaotic foreign policy, and belligerence towards Europe. Now, faced with an uncertain ally, European nations are investing in their own defence industries. The flow on effect will be more local procurement, and less military equipment being sourced from the US. Essentially, Trump’s actions have undermined the US defence industry’s most profitable market, and given a boost to its European competitors.
Conclusion
In conclusion, this week is defined by uncertainty. Strategically, the world is waiting to see if Trump will change his position and take action to encourage Putin to negotiate. Meanwhile, in Donetsk Russian forces recently made tactically significant advances, capturing ground that blocks the H-32 motorway. It appears that Ukraine has stabilised the situation, but can they re-capture the road? Or, will Russia gain momentum and create more success? We can only wait and see.
However, Europe is mobilising and regardless of American vacillation Ukraine is being supported both now, and in the future. The European Union is creating sensible financial support arrangements that will benefit both Ukraine, and Europe’s defence industries.
Putin shows no sign of wanting to negotiate, and a ceasefire will only be delivered if there is no other option. In the next few weeks, Trump and Europe will be tested, and one or the other will have the opportunity to set a new, and assertive position with Russia. The next few weeks will be a test of political leadership, and the world will see whether Trump accepts that challenge.
Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack
Well, Putin will be very pissed at just losing a bunch of heavy bombers AWACS and jet bombers.
Congratulations to Ukraine. That was a very clever drone strike.
Watch the retaliation see how clever they really are??
They have a lot less planes to kill civilians with now . The Ukraines took the war to military sites not schools and hospitals .
They dropped a bridge onto a passenger train, full of civilians Trevor. And the planes they destroyed are long range bombers not even being used in the conflict, just more pointless provocation on Ukraines part, which won’t stop the crumbling of the front lines currently happening.
Correction! The bridge attack was a false flag operation carried out by Russia who were going to retaliate against Ukraine with massive air strikes. What a shame that a third of their cruise missile bombers were knocked out so the massive retaliation was not possible.
Zelensky claimed responsibility for the attacks on the bridges.
He claimed responsibility for the attack on the Kursk bridge which isn’t surprising as this isn’t the first time Ukraine has attacked it. That is also obviously the one that Ovod is referencing.
But perhaps you can point to where he claimed responsibility for the attack on the ones with the passenger train that you reference above (or the road bridge in Bryansk for that matter)
Correction (I hit send too fast). Ovod seems to be referring to the attack on the bridge(s) in Bryansk and Zheleznogorsk. There is no proof that either was a Russian false flag operation, but the point still stands that no, Zelenskyy didn’t claim responsibility for them.
He claimed credit for the one leading to Crimea.
ok fair enough, but my point still stands, it will not stop the outcome of the war, Ukraine is doomed.
Ben – Ukraine is not the USA…therefore Trump does not need to get involved.
Putin winning?
Not after today’s news!
Europe is a vassal land of the USA, this is the reason for the existence of the tightrope that they have to navigate with the US government. Whatever they do has to get the approval and or intel/military support of the USA. Otherwise, we have all been down the ceasefire road before, and like the US brokered ceasefires in Gaza, they are meaningless! So, Russia will keep incompetently plodding along, adding to their million plus lost lives (according to Western sources) while the West feigns ceasefire (why even bother with this clown show given the incompetence Ukraine – the West, is up against – one may ask). Only a show of force will end this needless war, and this will only come from a provocation too great for Russia to ignore. This, is the inevitable path we are on.
Has there been a conquest since 1945? And there cannot be now. That is unallowable, Russia. On principle and our peace in the West since. And your security! No missiles in Ukraine is what you want.
You can’t conquer territory! That secures you as much as anyone. in the present reality. You are old-styler non-understanders of that. Dictatorship, I suspect, is your foul bias.
The media hardliners Viktor Solovyov and Margarita Simonyan (RT) are hitting the roof threatening to nuke Ukraine. They should be blaming their FSB for not protecting their airfields. Hopefully Ukraine can knock out another third of these bombers soon. This is what you get for targeting civilians.
Ovod must be calling all the press-ganged unwilling soldiers ‘in Ukraine’s army ‘civilians’ ,,,,, because otherwise his statement is about as truthful as a zionist saying Israel is not targeting civilians ,,,both are garbage…..
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/the-death-rattle-of-kiev
“I had thought of posting last night about the Ukrainian terrorist attack on a bridge and train in Russia which killed and injured a lot of people. But I had an intuition that this attack would be quickly followed by others insofar as such desperate actions usually come in waves – a bit like the kamikaze attacks on the Allied fleet just before Tokyo surrender in 1945..
In a nuclear war ( the end of the world ), those old planes that Ukraine hit would be nearly irrelevant compared to the (unstoppable) nuclear missiles Russia has ,,,,, Iran proved that the best western air defense is next to useless against hypersonic generation missiles. and those that can maneuver https://youtu.be/3U7wp2YsQJI?t=50 ,,
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https://karat.substack.com/p/sabotaged-peace-how-the-west-torpedoed
“Make no mistake: what happened in Istanbul was not a good-faith failure or an unforeseeable collapse – it was sabotage. And not by the Kremlin, as our enlightened Western commentariat might insist, but by those very Western actors who claim to champion peace while doing everything to prevent it. ” ,,,,,, “once upon a time in 1990, U.S. and German officials told Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would move “not one inch eastward” if Moscow allowed German reunification. We now know from declassified documents that this promise was indeed made, and then promptly trashed by the Clinton and Bush administrations https://www.commondreams.org/views/2022/06/25/not-justification-provocation-chomsky-root-causes-russia-ukraine-war ,, Yet NATO kept expanding, and from 2014 onward the U.S. began openly integrating Ukraine into its military orbit – sending arms, trainers, and holding joint exercises on Russia’s doorstep “,,,
,,, “The incentives are key to unmasking their duplicity. Let’s talk money first. The war has been a bonanza for Western arms manufacturers, and Europe’s leaders know it. Europe’s defense contractors saw record profits and stock surges in anticipation that the war (and resulting defense spending) will drag on. Britain’s biggest weapons maker, BAE Systems, doubled its stock price and topped £3 billion in profits for the first time in 2024. Germany’s Rheinmetall, France’s Thales, Italy’s Leonardo – all have enjoyed massive growth as orders boom (theguardian.com). Nothing greases the political wheels in the West quite like the military-industrial complex,” ,,,,
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https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/a-man-can-dream
“”The thing that people should understand (but rarely do) is that the US is the source of all conflict in the world.”
“Where the US could do it — Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos — they did everything possible to destroy whatever they could not control. Whole nations were laid waste and tens of millions died miserable deaths, almost all civilians. The US used everything short of nukes (and considered nukes over and over again): biological weapons, chemical weapons, psychological warfare, economic warfare, starvation, terrorism. There were no limits. The famous My Lai massacre was a success “,,,,, ‘As much as 20% of the “North Koreans” were killed and the country reduced to the Stone Age, and Korea itself has remained divided and at war with itself ever since. Vietnam was embargoed for decades after they were mostly destroyed, preventing them from recovering. Cambodia and Laos had nothing to do with it, but they were mercilessly bombed and Cambodia suffered the horrific “killing fields” largely due to US interference.”,,,,,,,,,
“National security states and death squads all over Latin America and Africa, trained by the Green Beret. That’s what they do. Incredible theft from Africa in particular — the wealthiest continent on Earth reduced to the poorest. Tens or hundreds of millions dead — as bad or worse than previous empires ,,,”
“A Democratic president led the murder of half a million Iraqi children (and how many adults?) while destroying Rwanda and committing genocide against the HUTUS, not the Tutsis — a genocide that has continued in the Congo for nearly thirty years, with six to nine million dead and no one mentions it. ”
“Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Chile, Argentina, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, all through the Caribbean (especially Cuba) — movements for workers rights and environmental protection and prevention of capital flight were all brutally crushed. And throughout this Americans were worked harder and harder for less and less, substituting easy credit. Now the US is a nation of debtors. Debtors prisons will return soon….”
“The US is the Hollow Nation. The parasites don’t care. They have their walled estates and private islands and Swiss bank accounts.” ,,,,,,, some of them have NZ citizenship as well…. ie, Peter Thiel.
Thank goodness we have papa Pu ( putin ) and his wise Chinese buddy Xi ,,,, The usa has long been bad news and a disgrace, Trump represents them to a tee..
Lets hope the yanks don’t nuke the world while on their way down ……. their foreign policy is a mass shooting.
“
I’ve seen the drone work on those now redundant planes and based on that you’re correct in what you write. I know this from what I’ve read. Don’t fuck with the Russians. Again, from what I’ve read the Russians have been trying to get Ukraine and it’s proxy besties the Americans to back the fuck off the Russia / Ukraine border long before this so called war came to a head. It does freak me out to ponder that the Americans now have a Drumph and not a Kennedy, Carter or an Obama.
The Retaliation? Well here is some of it –
Massive Russian Strike Hits Lutsk Bunker Holding NATO Missiles: Storm Shadow, Patriot, ATACMS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adHgOIOKYn8