This week’s big news is that US support for the negotiation process could be faltering. When questioned after his return from meeting European and Ukrainian leaders last Friday, US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio discussed negotiations and stated “It is not our war. We didn’t start it,” and that President Trump is “probably at a point where he’s going to say, well, we’re done”.
Rubio’s comments were soon echoed by Trump at an Oval Office press conference, where he discussed the difficulty of negotiations, and stated “Now if for some reason one of the two parties makes it very difficult, we’re just going to say: ‘You’re foolish. You’re fools. You’re horrible people’ – and we’re going to just take a pass.” The President is obviously tiring of dealing with the Ukraine War and could be ready to backtrack on his campaign commitment to end the war.
Putin is out manoeuvring Trump strategically
An observation of Trump is that he is a highly emotional person, who makes decisions based on feelings rather than evidence. Currently, Putin is winning the negotiation by stringing Trump along with commitments to negotiations, that do not materialise. Putin is also careful to never concede any of Russia’s key objectives, for example; retaining the illegally annexed part of Ukraine, disarming Ukraine, the removal of economic sanctions, and ensuring a foreign security force does not enter Ukraine.
After US Special Envoy, Steve Witkoff’s meeting with Putin on 11 April Kremlin media said the meeting was long, more than four hours, and productive “focused on various aspects of the Ukrainian settlement.” Russian statements also suggested that an objective of the meeting was to discuss Putin and President Trump meeting in person. Russia presenting the image of being willing to negotiate, but without taking meaningful action.
However, regardless of these positive words on 14 April, Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister told news service Kommersant that the Ukrainian regime was illegitimate and restated Putin’s requirements for a ceasefire. On April 18, Russian Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzya reiterated Russia’s rejection of a general ceasefire. Examples of key Russian officials reinforcing Putin’s irreconcilable ‘bottom lines’ for a ceasefire.
Putin is making Trump look weak and ineffectual, and this situation cannot go on forever. Even Putin’s best flattery is not able to hide the fact that he is making an international laughing stock of the new Whitehouse. The world’s greatest military power hobbled, unable to work with its traditional European allies because of an narrow-minded dislike of Europe, and instead relying on Putin’s goodwill to achieve Trump’s objective of finishing the war.
This leaves Trump with two options; he can either throw US economic and military weight behind Ukraine to make the war unwinnable for Putin, forcing him to negotiate. Or, he can walk away like a school bully when a smaller child stands up to them. Trump and Rubio’s statements hint that they are considering the second option..
But what about US military aid?
Rubio and Trump’s statements are important, President Biden’s last round of military aid to Ukraine is rapidly running out, and the current Whitehouse has not provided any further aid. My assessment is that even without US aid Ukraine can maintain its defence, continuing to attrit Russian forces. But that without US aid Ukraine does not have the military power to inflict a crushing defeat on Russia that could shorten the war. The impact of no US aid is a longer and more destructive war.
Ukraine’s recent offer to purchase $30-50 billion dollars of military aid through a minerals deal continues to be discussed and the BBC reported on 19 April that “A signed memorandum of intent, published by the Ukrainian government on 18 April, says the countries intend to set up an investment fund for the reconstruction of Ukraine as part of an economic partnership. Kyiv and Washington aim to finalise the text by 26 April.”
The deal may provide Ukraine with a second avenue for getting military support from the US. Unfortunately, greed rather than a commitment to the international rule of law may be the factor that convinces the Trump regime to support Ukraine.
Why Easter is important
Trump and Rubio were both clear, that the negotiation is time constrained and that the US wants to get ‘a result’ soon. When media asked about his timeline Trump did not provide detail, saying simply “But quickly. We want to get it done.” Likewise, Rubio said the US was willing to abandon its efforts “within days” when questioned about timelines. Statements like this indicate that Trump’s administration is keen to make a deal, or move on.
In a The Spectator article titled ‘Why Putin is keeping Trump waiting for a Ukraine deal,’ Russia expert Mark Galeotti potentially provides some insight. Galeotti points out the significance of Easter both in Russia where it is a religious holiday, and for Trump because the holiday roughly marks the 100th day of his presidency. This holiday represents a potential decision point for both parties.
Putin’s Easter ceasefire
Trump and Rubio’s statements indicate that the US is tiring of Putin’s game. Russia’s announcement of an Easter ceasefire indicates that Putin believes he can get more from Trump, and wants to continue the discussion. Putin’s offer is unlikely to be anything more than a deception designed to keep Trump’s Whitehouse at the negotiating table.
The longer Trump ineffectually negotiates, the more Putin’s international reputation is enhanced because countries that do not align with US will probably enjoy seeing the nation being ‘played’ by Putin. Ukraine’s President Zelensky demonstrated exactly how to deal with the ceasefire offer, by saying that if he is serious Putin should agree to the 30-day ceasefire proposal that is already ‘on the table.’
But what about Russia’s Summer offensive
It is now widely reported that Russian has transitioned into a summer offensive, and along the frontline last week there was an increase in the number of attacks. Further, Russia has massed approximately 67,000 soldiers across the border from Sumy. Ukrainian sources believe that Russia plans to try and take this city, but an attack on it is unlikely to be successful.
Historically, Sumy has proven difficult to capture and Ukraine’s increasing proficiency in defence combined with having time to fortify the city means taking it is probably beyond Russia’s capabilities. Further, 67,000 soldiers may seem like a large force but in this conflict, it is far from enough to capture a city of approximately 250,000 people.
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Russia is attacking vigorously along the whole frontline but its attacks have been unsuccessful to-date. However, some Russian activity is noteworthy, providing useful insight into developing tactics and Russia’s larger plans.
A large Russian armoured assault near Orikhiv, uses new tactics
On 16 April, Russian forces in Zaporizhia launched a large armoured attack near Orikhiv. The attack was spread along a frontage of approximately 40km and involved about 300 soldiers supported by 40 armoured vehicles and 10 4×4 buggies. The attack was defeated and most of the armoured vehicles were destroyed.
This operation is notable for its size, for the long frontage, and because it may indicate Russia’s operational-level plans. This attack probably tests new tactics, Russia spreading its vehicles out on a very wide frontage rather than concentrating them. Probably, to disperse Ukraine’s drones over a wide area making them less effective.
At operational-level this attack may be an indication that Ukrainian intelligence’s reporting that Russia was preparing a multi-pronged campaign may be correct. This large attack combined with continued pressure on Pokrovsk, and the build up of forces near Sumy suggests that Russia is interested in attacking on three fronts. Good news for Ukraine, because attacking on multiple fronts dissipates Russian resources making it harder to achieve local superiority.
Russian armoured assaults near Chasiv Yar, Vilne Pole and Novopavlivka, more new tactics
Stupochky and Klishchiivka both south of Chasiv Yar were attacked by a company-sized (100 soldiers and about a dozen vehicles) force on 13 April. On 14 April, similar sized Russian forces were defeated near Novopavlivka and Vilne Pole. The three attacks are interesting because they involved using swarms of soldiers on motorbikes and in ATVs ahead of the armoured vehicles.
A tactic probably designed to quickly overwhelm defending anti-tank missiles and drones, paving a pathway for armoured vehicles. This is another example of Russia experimenting with tactics to break through Ukraine’s defensive system.
More Russian armour near Pokrovsk
Later in the week, on 17 April Pokrovsk was attacked in a similar manner but by a battalion-sized group (approximately three companies working together. A statement from President Zelensky claimed Ukrainian forces had destroyed 115 vehicles and killed or wounded 240 Russian soldiers. The size of this attack, and that it was quickly defeated by Ukraine make it noteworthy.
What this Russian activity indicates
This activity indicates that Russia is trying to evolve tactics for using armour in the attack. Recently, armour has been relegated to secondary roles like providing fire support rather than leading attacks. The effectiveness of drones and guided anti-tank weapons making life too dangerous for these vehicles.
However, tanks and armoured vehicles remain formidable fighting machines and developing tactics to bring them onto the battlefield is likely to produce significant results. Russia appears to be experimenting and testing ideas, like dispersion and using fast-moving motorcyclists to precede armour. Summer is drying out the ground after the rasputitsa, or mud season and now that vehicles can move Russia is using the opportunity to test ideas.
Ukraine’s defeat of these attacks last week demonstrates that Russia has not found the formula yet, but the fact that they are trying new ideas demonstrates that Russian forces still have the will and the resources to evolve.
Summary
Russia’s activity rate is increasing, and we are seeing more use of armour, indicating Putin is keen to use his increasingly scare tanks and armoured fighting vehicles to achieve quick victories. Russia’s commanders are testing new tactics, and it appears that their operational planning involves a three-pronged assault on Ukraine.
Attacking on three axes of advance is operationally flawed because Russia will be unable to generate sufficient combat power on any single axis to achieve a decision. Probably, Putin feels pressured to demonstrate to Trump that Russian victory is inevitable by winning a quick victory, so is spreading his forces wide looking for a weakness. The aim being to get the US to distance itself from the conflict, and for the Whitehouse to walk way in exasperation.
Putin’s Easter ceasefire is a tactic in the wider negotiation, ‘spinning’ that Russia is engaged in the peace process. In coming days, we will see whether Trump keeps accepting Russian ‘spin,’ because the US certainly has enough economic and military leverage to force Putin to negotiate but what currently stands in the way is the willingness to use this power.
Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack
Ben – Thankfully the war is coming to an end…The Ukraine President will be dropped for someone else who can work with the Russians, NATO will be reformed to remove the Warhawks, the EU, as an organisation, will lose influence over much of the world…
YouTube 173K views 1 month ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RM6c20dwrZQ
Donald Trump @2:10 minutes
“And if somebody doesn’t want to make a deal, I think that person won’t be around very long. That person will not be listened to very long. Because I believe that Russia wants to make a deal.”
We all know what deal the Yanks want.
The Americans want control over Ukraine’s rare earths and energy infrastructure, including the Russian gas pipeline that runs through Ukraine, giving the Americans (and Russians) a stranglehold over Europe’s energy supply.
For US control of Ukraine’s minerals and energy the Russians get control over all Ukraine territory they have conquered so far.
That’s the deal on the table right now. Trump has told the the Ukrainians ‘take it or leave it’ or we walk and you’re on your own.
In this dirty deal, cooked up between the Russian and the American imperialists, Ukrainians don’t even get a security guarantee against further Russian aggression. And if the Ukrainians don’t agree to this deal > US regime change in Ukraine.
Echoing Donald Trump, Nathan pipes up for a US imperialist regime change in Ukraine.
“The Ukraine President will be dropped for someone else who can work with the Russians” Nathan
Hey Nathan, what do you mean by “dropped” airplane crash? umbrella needle? Novichok poisoned door knob? Or do you literally mean ‘dropped’, as in, out of a window?
Full List of Russians to Fall Out of Windows Since Putin Invaded Ukraine
https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-russians-fall-windows-putin-ukraine-war-1781790
Or by ‘dropped’ do you mean a good old style CIA backed kidnap and murder of a US ally no longer of any use.
On 2 November 1963, Ngô Đình Diệm, the president of South Vietnam, was arrested and assassinated in a CIA-backed coup d’état
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrest_and_assassination_of_Ng%C3%B4_%C4%90%C3%ACnh_Di%E1%BB%87m
Imperialists and their lickspittle trolls, God love ’em. No one else does.
“A signed memorandum of intent, published by the Ukrainian government on 18 April, says the countries intend to set up an investment fund for the reconstruction of Ukraine as part of an economic partnership. Kyiv and Washington aim to finalise the text by 26 April.”
The deal may provide Ukraine with a second avenue for getting military support from the US. Unfortunately, greed rather than a commitment to the international rule of law may be the factor that convinces the Trump regime to support Ukraine. Ben Morgan
Or not. America’s greed could be served another way.
The other alternative is that the US and the Kremlin agree between them to carve up Ukraine by knifing Ukraine in the back in secret agreements, in which Ukraine gets no say. That’s how imperialist powers operate, it’s how they will always operate.
. “We are continuing to work with the American side and, of course, we hope that this work will yield results.’
Work on finding a peaceful settlement cannot take place, and should not take place, in public, it should take place in an absolutely discrete mode.” Russian presidential spokesman Dmitrii Peskov
https://nikvesti.com/en/news/politics/304090-kremlin-satisfied-us-no-prospects-ukraine-nato
The US and Ukraine have signed a memorandum of understanding over Ukraine’s mineral wealth. Zelensky wants this agreement to be tied to a security guarantee from the US against further Russian aggression. A guarantee he will never get.
(signaled by US barring Ukraine from NATO and the protection of mutual defense clause, under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty),
It doesn’t really matter to the US if Zelensky finally signs off on the minerals deal or not, as long as the Russians agree to honour it in their secret negotiations.
The big question is whether the European powers will agree to this dirty deal between the US and the Kremlin.
As long as the US can get to rape Ukraine for its minerals, in a pattern the US has repeated around the globe they couldn’t care less who runs the country.
But it may matter to the Europeans.
If a ceasefire deal is signed between Russia and the US, where Ukraine has to give up territory, without any security guarantee from the US against further Russian aggression. And six months down the track, Russia resumes its invasion, on some pretext or another, will the Europeans come to Ukraine’s aid?
Don’t imagine that “the Europeans” (Starmer, Macron et al) are any more moral than Trump or Putin. They also are desperately seeking ways out for their stalled economies. They wagered everything on the prospect of a successful war against Russia and lost. Now are looking for a consolation prize in the form of a slice of Ukraine. To do that they have to overcome both Trump and Putin. Frankly, I don’t fancy their chances.
“Don’t imagine that “the Europeans” (Starmer, Macron et al) are any more moral than Trump or Putin.”
Well Putin probably sets the standard for religious ceremony attendance –
https://www.youtube.com/live/mmL1-Ot5UBI
a 2 minute version https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xYblLa-21w
Meanwhile, Traitor Trump sells out the free world. What a complete wanker.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-s-final-holdout-in-kursk-falls-as-russia-captures-monastery/ar-AA1Do5xu
Good commentary Ben. Thanks.
As I said months ago, in order to make Putin negotiate properly he must be forced to the table with a significant military setback. His regime is more brittle than many outsiders realize, and in some ways the situation resembles Russia in 1917 – weakened by war and ripe for internal uprising.
As the war developed Ukraine has become less and less dependent on US supplied equipment and the rest the Europeans are rapidly gearing up to provide. They’re so effective with FPV drones now that most Russian attacks can be stopped without a lot of 155mm ammo and HIMARS. The UK’s recent commitment to provide 5,000 low-cost SAMs plugs a gap their defence against Russian drone attacks on civilians.
If they could destroy the bridges between Russia and the Ukrainian Crimean Peninsula, that would be bloody excellent.
The Russians could destroy those bridges anytime they want, however, it would mean that the N@zis would have problems sending more barely trained soldiers to the front to get chewed up, and spat out.
Dubbed “Eagles of Civlisation” China conducts military training exercises over Egypt.
The name of this operation, is telling, while Western media pundits completely ignore the human slaughterhouse going on in Gaza like its not happening the rest of the world sees and knows, that this wholesales murder of men women and children is being carried out with the aid of the West. Which is why the Chinese and Egyptians call themselves, “civilised” compared to us.
Source: China Military Online
Editor: Lin Congyi
Eagles of Civilization 2025: China-Egypt joint air force training kicks off
http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/CHINA_209163/TopStories_209189/16381984.html
A J-10C fighter jet attached to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force conducts training together with an Egyptian MiG-29 fighter jet during the China-Egypt “Eagles of Civilization 2025” joint air force training, on April 19, 2025.
CAIRO, April 21 — On the morning of April 19, the China-Egypt “Eagles of Civilization 2025” joint air force training started the first training day at an air force base in Egypt.
According to the annual military exchange plan and the consensus between the Chinese and Egyptian air forces, the two air forces will hold the joint air force training code-named “Eagles of Civilization 2025” at an air force base in Egypt from mid-April to early May, 2025. The two sides will dispatch fighter jets, Airborne Early Warning (AEW) aircraft, tanker aircraft and helicopters to take part in the training.
The Chinese participating troops arrived at the designated place on April 15 after a journey of nearly 6,000 kilometers transiting multiple countries. As the first joint training between the Chinese and Egyptian air forces, it aims to enhance the technical and tactical capabilities of the participating troops from both sides, and is of great significance to promoting pragmatic cooperation and enhancing mutual trust and friendship between the two militaries.
Chinese and Egyptians are brown people.
Hiroshima and Nagasaki and Gaza, remind Chinese and Egyptian people, that in times of war, genocidal acts by Western powers against brown people are permissible.
Genocide is only worthy of Western attention after it is all over, or if it affects white people.
Egypt especially needs to worry.
Israeli threat to kill up to 10.5 million Egyptians
Israeli Threat Over High Dam Sparks Outrage Amid Growing American Pressure on Egypt
Egypt Faces Escalating Tensions as Hypothetical Scenario of Dam Attack Raises Fears of Forced Palestinian Relocation.
…..This veiled threat comes amid increasing American pressure on Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to accept a plan for the forced relocation of Palestinians from Gaza to Sinai—a plan that Donald Trump and the Israeli government are attempting to impose on Cairo and Jordan, amidst growing Arab opposition….
….The scenario, built using artificial intelligence techniques, shows that millions of cubic meters of water would rush through with immense force within minutes, destroying vital installations, military bases, and infrastructure in Egypt. The report estimated human casualties between 1.7 and 10.5 million deaths….
….Although the report claimed that the scenario was “hypothetical” and did not reflect Israel’s true intentions to target the High Dam, the timing of its publication came at a time when Egypt is under unprecedented pressure from Washington and Tel Aviv, leading many to interpret it as an implicit threat to push Cairo into complying with American demands for the forced relocation plan….
…..Egyptian officials attempted to downplay the significance of the report, affirming that it was purely “hypothetical” and not considered at a strategic or military level…..
…..Major General Osama Mahmoud, a military expert and consultant at the War College, stated that such scenarios do not reflect any real intentions,
…..He added that these reports could be part of a psychological warfare campaign aimed at pressuring Cairo into making decisions aligned with Israeli and American interests.
The publication of this scenario comes at a time when Egypt is facing immense pressure from the Trump administration, which is attempting to impose the plan for the relocation of Palestinians from Gaza to Sinai—a plan that Cairo has publicly rejected so far…..
But you won’t hear about this from Western mil bloggers, they know to keep their mouths firmly shut even if our forces are involved.
I’m sure the tankies here were all celebrating last night after another heroic display of their idol’s might.
What does tanky mean? I looked it up as Observer seems to be getting pretty agitated by them.
More generally, a tankie is someone who tends to support “militant opposition to capitalism” and a more modern online variation, which means “something like ‘a self-proclaimed communist who indulges in conspiracy theories and whose rhetoric is largely performative.'”
That counts most of us out. Have you noticed Observer that the Soviet is ancient history?
no I think it suits halfwits like you with your Putin fetish pretty well
Observe who is winning this. Oh dear how sad.
Christ you have a myopic view of the world, some of us realise that Putin is an authoritarian tyrant, but we just hate n@zis more… and as long as someone is killing the n@zis, who cares who it is.
“Have you noticed Observer that the Soviet is ancient history?” Nick J
I am sure he has, but have the Tankies?
Most of them still believe that Putin’s Russia is the socialist mothership
Pat, correct me if I’m wrong but you are a communist? In which case you would hold some strong views about the Soviet and it’s demise. Be interested to hear.
Myself despite the simplistic views of the acolytes of neo lib and neocon corporate imperialism here, am neither for or against Putin. I am certainly against the degeneracy of our current Western leadership. When it can approve or turn a blind eye to bombing Gaza there is nothing more to be said.
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