Shock New POLL Labour overtake National – Chippy preferred PM

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
56
1538

New Taxpayers’ Union Poll is out and its devastating for National.

Labour overtake National in the Taxpayers’ Union Poll!

Labour – 34.1% 

National – 33.6%

Green 10.0% 

- Sponsor Promotion -

ACT 7.7% 

Māori 6.5%

NZ First 5.1%

The vicious nature of this Hard Right Government led by a weak Luxon is bearing a harvest of spite from voters who feel genuinely angry at what is happening.

Horizon poll: 39% of voters ‘concerned’ about coalition Government

– 39% were concerned about how the coalition government is performing
– 38% were disappointed
– 34% were frustrated
– 24% were angry
– 22% were hopeful
– 10% feel pleased, 5% excited, 4% proud, and 4% feel inspired

Where do Kiwis cut back when we feel the pinch?

– 31% of Kiwis struggle to pay the power bill

– 24% struggle to buy food

– 26% struggle to pay rent

– 29% struggle with transport costs

Overall 55% of Kiwis are not doing well and the “cost of living” crisis has only gotten worse

The truth is Luxon has been a flop, he is too weak and he is too arrogantly rich.

Seymour and Winston play him like a fool and his ability to make things worse with his deep hatred of poor people is becoming a tad pathological now.

The knives are out for Chris Luxon.

The numbers are being being quietly done.

The only thing that will save him is a successful Investment Summit and according to Hooton, it looks like a clusterfuck of titanic proportions…

Christopher Luxon has just one job next week – Matthew Hooton

New Zealand has a history of ultimately embarrassing prime ministerial summits – David Lange’s 1984 Economic Summit, bearing no relation to his Government’s policy programme; Clark’s 2001 Knowledge Wave conference, preceding a seemingly permanent decline in New Zealand’s productivity growth; and Sir John Key’s 2009 Jobs Summit, at least delivering a cycleway.

Luxon’s idea was to bring to New Zealand the chief executives of investment companies with which the Superannuation Fund had arranged courtesy calls on his overseas travels. The chief executives, he thought, would then be inspired by his oratory and people skills to invest in New Zealand.

This betrayed Luxon’s background as a salesman without any real experience or knowledge of how funds allocate capital, or even who makes the decisions. In most funds, including our Superannuation Fund, the chief executive is just one cog in the wheel of investment decisions, which are made by mandated investment committees overseen by the chief investment officer.

Moreover, investors don’t put money into countries but into projects. A specialist at investing in, say, ports, doesn’t decide to invest in New Zealand and then look around for which port. They’re interested in receiving credible proposals for port projects, from anywhere, and prefer to maintain a balanced global portfolio to manage geopolitical and other risk.

Such projects must also exceed a minimum value specified in their investment mandate.

When Luxon was finally convinced of this last year, and came to understand his original idea of a rah-rah generic marketing exercise would fail, he ordered immediately investable propositions be prepared.

These remain a closely guarded secret, including from those expected to fly across the world for next week’s extravaganza. But NZME’s BusinessDesk reports the Government has so-far identified only four potential public-private partnerships (PPPs) for the short- or medium-term: redeveloping accommodation at the Linton Military Camp, redeveloping Christchurch Men’s Prison, new court rooms in Waitākere and Rotorua, and a four-lane expressway from Warkworth to Te Hana.

We’d all better hope BusinessDesk somehow has this terribly wrong because if that’s all New Zealand has to offer major allocators of global capital after 16-hour flights from New York or Dubai, our country will forever be blacklisted as a destination for their funds. Not even the 24km expressway would meet most funds’ minimum investment thresholds for construction projects and it isn’t clear these are genuine PPPs anyway, but rather slightly more elaborate construction contracts.

...I have previously blogged about my confusion as to why National seemed so optimistic that this Investment Summit would be an economic turning point because by all accounts it looked painfully light on opportunity.

I think they are confusing their excitement at hosting corporate events vs actual economic growth.

China was set to be a large part of this summit, but with a Chinese fleet currently doing live fire tests in the Tasman Sea, their inclusion is going to quickly become a festering sore.

3rd tier Australian Mining companies keen to exploit our Fast Track process doesn’t seem like much of a win and more property speculators isn’t a solution either.

Libertarian Billionaires looking for a bolthole when the climate change collapse kicks in doesn’t seem like a future anyone wants other than them.

National have put all the eggs in this one investment summit and are attempting to sell us prostituting ourselves to the global rich as a great way forward.

It isn’t.

National have confused their excitement for event management as an economic policy, when this falls over, as it will, what new rabbit do they intend to pull out of their hat?

All National have are Austerity Budgets that borrow billions for tax cuts while hollowing out public service budgets. They strangle the common good for their donors interests.

Begging rich people to exploit us at a summit seems masochistic even for the Political Right.

Long story short – the Investment Summit looks like an enormous failure which means the move against Luxon will happen before June to Gove the new candidate a year and a half before the election.

The rumours are:

Judith Collins wants Mark Mitchell, but Mark is too full of self doubt.

The big money donors don’t care as long as Nicola Willis remains Finance.

Simeon Brown hilariously thinks he can do it.

The compromise candidate will be Louise Upston.

Change of National Party Leadership alongside ACTs refusal to back any of Winston’s Ferry proposals could be the excuse Winston needs to trigger a snap election before May 31st.

In terms of Chippy and Labour, they were at the Auckland Chamber of Commerce with Simon Bridges sitting right there on stage with him last week so there was no way Chippy was about to blow the Trumpet for Revolution and unleash the dogs of war upon the filthy capitalists.

Chippy was there to woo capitalists who are genuinely alarmed at this Government’s race war and glee at kicking the poor.

Chris Hipkins is NZs Emotional Support Labrador.

Chris Hipkins – NZs Emotional Support Labrador

These are educated cosmopolitans who like that their kids can sing a pepeha and who all wear Greenstone when they travel overseas. They pay extra for the electric car and like to think of themselves as liberal and don’t raise the rent as high as their Property Manager claims they can make.

They voted Jacinda proudly in 2020 and angrily didn’t in 2023.

They are Aucklanders, the well to do who run the city’s commerce, and most importantly to them Chris Hipkins is an emotional support Labrador who makes the idea of voting Labour again a lot less scary.

They want stability, they don’t want race wars.

They want their house prices to go up, they don’t want hungry kids eating shit food.

They want less gridlock, but they don’t want to see more homeless.

They are open to Chippy’s incrementalism and that’s exactly what he gave them.

No big ideas, just a promise not to tear up everything National has done.

On any other given day such capitulation would be derided, today we are so desperate to get rid of National + ACT + NZF that we will take incremental nothings.

 

 

The reshuffle was far more significant than vague promises not to upset Aucklanders  property portfolios.

Labour’s new list (new portfolios in bold):

  • 1. Chris Hipkins – Leader, Ministerial Services, National Security and Intelligence
  • 2. Carmel Sepuloni – Auckland Issues, Women, Pacific Peoples (loses Social Development, Child Poverty Reduction)

In the spirit of good will, I’m not going to bag Carmel any longer and hope that she is able to hear the stress Aucklanders are living under and makes some meaningful contribution to public transport, public safety and our homeless problem.

  • 3. Barbara Edmonds (+1) – Finance and Economy, Savings and Investment (loses Infrastructure)

I am the biggest fan of Barbara, she truly is one of the great Labour Politicians and if she is able to do something meaningful with Savings and Investment we will be genuinely lucky.

  • 4. Megan Woods (-1) – Energy and Resources, Manufacturing and Industry, Associate Finance (loses Climate Change)

Think this is a blunder. Manufacturing and Industry should have gone to Kieran.

  • 5. Willie Jackson – Social Development, Māori Development (loses Broadcasting and Media, Employment, Associate Housing, Associate Workplace Relations)

This is the biggest move. Willie Jackson as Social Development could herald a real change in welfare that will generate real support from beneficiaries.

  • 6. Ayesha Verrall – Health, Wellington Issues (loses Public Service)

I really like Ayesha.

  • 7. Kieran McAnulty – Shadow Leader of the House, Housing, Infrastructure and Public Investment (loses Local Govt and Regional Development)

He’s so close to Winston he can almost touch him.

  • 8. Williow-Jean Prime – Education, Children (loses Youth, Associate Education – Māori)

Great appointment, Willow-Jean is a star.

  • 9. Ginny Andersen – Jobs and Incomes, Police, Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations (loses Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence, Social Investment, Associate Social Development)

I want to like Ginny.

  • 10. Jan Tinetti – Workplace Relations and Safety, Social Investment, Early Childhood Education, Child Poverty Reduction (loses Education, Women)
  • 11. Peeni Henare – Economic Development, Māori-Crown Relations Te Arawhiti, Defence, Associate Health (loses Sport and Recreation)

Great man doing great things.

  • 12. Tangi Utikere (+7) – Local Government, Transport, Small Business, Racing (loses Oceans and Fisheries, Associate Education – Pacific)

I like Tangi.

  • 13. Priyanca Radhakrishnan (-1) – NZSIS, GCSB, Disability, Conservation
  • 14. Jo Luxton (-1) – Agriculture, Rural Communities, Biosecurity
  • 15. Duncan Webb (-1) – Deputy Shadow Leader of the House, Justice, Regulation, Natural Hazards Commission (loses Christchurch issues)

Is a star, needs to be given more.

  • 16. Deborah Russell (-1) – Revenue, Climate Change, Associate Finance (loses Science, Innovation and Technology, Associate Education – Tertiary)

I want to like Deborah.

  • 17. Rachel Brooking (-1) – Environment, Food Safety, Space, RMA Reform
  • 18. Damien O’Connor (-1) – Trade, Land Information, Regional Development (loses Associate Foreign Affairs, Associate Transport)

Needs to be used in regional NZ more.

  • 19. David Parker (-1) – Foreign Affairs, Shadow Attorney General (loses Electoral Reform)

Should be given something far larger than this.

  • 20. Camilla Belich – ACC, Public Services, Emergency Management (loses Workplace Relations and Safety)
  • 21. Arena Williams – Commerce and Consumer Affairs, Building and Construction, Youth (loses State-owned Enterprises)

Arena Williams is the future of the party, needs far more than this.

  • 22. Phil Twyford – Immigration, Disarmament and Arms Control, Associate Foreign Affairs

I like Phil.

  • 23. Greg O’Connor – Courts, Veterans

Needs to be used more.

  • 24. Jenny Salesa – Ethnic Communities, Customs
  • 25. Rachel Boyack – Arts, Culture and Heritage, Animal Welfare, Oceans and Fisheries (loses ACC)
  • 26. Adrian Rurawhe – Whānau Ora (loses Associate Māori Development)
  • 27. Helen White – Community and Voluntary Sector, Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence (loses Small Business and Manufacturing, Associate Justice)

I said I wasn’t going to be mean.

  • 28. Ingrid Leary – Seniors, Mental Health
  • 29. Lemauga Lydia Sosene – Internal Affairs, Statistics (loses Associate Pacific Peoples, Associate Social Development and Employment)
  • 30. Reuben Davidson – Science, Technology and Innovation, Broadcasting, Media and Creative Economy (loses Statistics, Digital Economy and Communications, Associate Broadcasting and Media)
  • 31. Cushla Tangaere-Manuel – Māori Economy, Sport and Recreation, Forestry (loses Tourism and Hospitality, Cyclone Recovery)

She’s such a star!

  • 32. Tracey McLellan – Corrections, Christchurch Issues (loses Associate Health)
  • 33. Shanan Halbert – Tertiary Education, Rainbow Issues (loses Auckland Issues)
  • 34. Glen Bennett – Tourism and Hospitality (loses Economic Development, Associate Energy)

 

This was not the call for revolution, it was a call for not spooking the horses.

Chippy is the Emotional Support Labrador NZ needs after this hard right spiteful Government.

Who’s a good boy Chippy?

You are!

Yes you are!

Who wants a sausage roll?

YOU WANT A SAUAGE ROLL!

I’m going back to sleep.

 

 

 

Increasingly having independent opinion in a mainstream media environment which mostly echo one another has become more important than ever, so if you value having an independent voice – please donate here.

56 COMMENTS

  1. Better to be a Labrador than a lap dog our lap dog Winstone is going to the USA no wonder he sacked Goff he has to have something to impress upon the loopy president throwing the world into turmoil.

  2. Why the fuck can we not just get a govt that just fucking governs. All this backwards and forwards shit between left and right just costs us money.

  3. Ahhhh so can I assume your readership Martyn will enjoy/believe/accept this polling from those ‘right wing’ pollsters this time?
    Or it’s not a real poll because it’s from Tax Payers Union?
    What a conundrum for the left lol

      • You should be nervous I’m right. Let’s not pull punches, our team is playing shit!!!! Captain should be dropped! But there’s a silver lining: we’ll have a govt that includes the Greens and TPM. That is something to look forward to.

        • Ohhh pish posh Krautet, the left will not win until Chippy (or whoever is leader come next election) states he will not form a govt with maori party, the moderate Labour vote will switch to NZ1st if he doesn’t not rule out the mad racist maori party.

    • If The Taxpayer Union are manipulating information, for whatever reason, then they will end up going down the same road as John Key’s Curia pollsters…ie .deregistered…

      Polling is an extremely lucrative business, so one has to ask …what would be the reason for risking losing that business.

      No matter what …what is obvious, is that both Luxon and Seymour are trying to lose or get fired…they want outta there…Luxon looks fucked …running for cover at every opportunity…and he’s only been in charge for 16 months …

      …and the 40 year old virgin, Seymour, is brutally exposed for being just all talk..

      so when the rubber hit the road and push comes to shove, clearly couldn’t even organise a pissup in a brewery .

      Nobody could say and do so many dumb stupid things as these two and think that there won’t be a significant backlash..

      Nobody could be that naive…could they?

    • “can I assume your readership Martyn will enjoy/believe/accept this polling from those ‘right wing’ pollsters this time”

      When you have a pollster (Curia) which owned by a right-wing activist (Farrar) and a client (Taxpayers Union) which is an activist far-right junk tank – then it is wise to be sceptical whatever the results show. If Curia did a poll for a legitimate organisation I would be less suspicious, because a legitimate client wants accurate information about the world and will fire a pollster who gives them garbage.

      However, this poll is broadly in line with other recent polls (Morgan and TV1) so it will not have been grossly manipulated. I still believe it’s possible that creative tweaking has occurred to convey the TPU’s preferred message, i.e. that what the Coalition is doing (and far-right economics generally) is broadly popular and as a result the Coaition is still neck and neck with the left after a difficult year. And that therefore the real problem is with National and especially with Luxon – who should be replaced by someone who is more radically right-wing slash and burn on economic policy, e.g. Willis.

  4. Luxon is unlikeable and has always been the wrong choice to lead the Nats. So unlikeable in fact that he is making the shitshow that would be a Labour + Greens + TPM coalition a viable choice for clearly too many people.

  5. The context of Chippies whimpy remarks is plain, but Labour really need to replace him with Kieran or someone else with a bit of grunt who is not afraid to mention the Greens and TPM as part of a new Govt. that many in Aotearoa NZ would support. Labour head office at Fraser House still persist in a “Labour win” scenario–the officials secretly still hate MMP–they are wronger every year.

    • C’mon Tigg’s MMP is a failed system, just look at Germany. Tail wagging dog or dog chasing tail is not the optimum system. We need an upper house or similar to control the executive. We do need to ditch the neoliberal mantra that govt should not be in the business of the business of running the country. Govt that consists of elected members is where the buck should stop.

    • Yes he cannot stay. When when when are they going to have a serious conversation about taxes……………..

  6. Is ….Chippy better than LUXON? ‘Who is that Luxon coming at me? That Luxon coming at me is I’.

  7. Nothing wrong with a sausage roll, go Chippy you can have a lifetimes worth of rolls as long as you rid us of Luxon and his abysmal excuse for a govt.

  8. When the interactive STUFF poll this morning on ‘who you would vote for today? ‘ has Green’s receiving more votes than National, you know the country is pissed off.

  9. A mere blip, come election time the right will win in an unprecedented landslide.
    ( Put that in your diary should you have one.)

  10. luxon + hipkins = Blah + Blah = Same + same = children of the poor get older, hungrier and angrier and our farmers get ever more exploited as global billionaires migrate to the only country that stands a chance of surviving the climate devastation to come because you aint seen nothin yet.

  11. I just can’t get excited about the thought of Chippy leading Labour in another government, maybe 18 months to go so let’s see what happens.

  12. The real problem for National isn’t who fronts the party, having not learned from last time they played leader merry-go-round.

    Rather, it’s the far-right austerity policies they’re forcing on us that is killing their support.
    That “squeezed middle” they lied about helping? Well, no help = no votes.

    Question for National: you’re approaching the halfway point of your term in office.
    Have you come up with a coherent economic policy yet, or is it still merely your donor’s grab-bag wishlist?

    • The country is no different to a company when it comes to turning its economy around .You need to cut out the bad parts strip it back to bare bones then rebuild
      .In NZ the hard work has been done and the rebuild is now taking place.

      • Except the word on the street is the English Literature major’s next budget has more cuts. So apparently the “hard work” as you call it, isn’t done.
        “Strip back to bare bones then rebuild”. You’ve been drinking Elon’s Kool Aid.

        And isn’t it funny how the “hard work” is always done by workers (jobs lost, rising prices, less services) whilst the rich get tax cuts.

        Nah Trevor. They do not give a stuff about anyone but their donors. The evidence is before our eyes.
        Even the blind can see that now – hence tanking poll data.

        • Don’t bother Jase to try and inform or educate these old guys bob1st and Trev. Waste of time and it would upset them to have to change gears which seem frozen tight. If you would do me a favour, as I like reading your comments, would read Edward de Bono and put up what has resonated with you? And if you are interested I would do the same and that will give us some new bones to chew on – Labradors or not. !

          The bit I have just read says that western thinking is based on finding fault, aiming for the perfect truth, and then stopping. Other freer thinking peoples look for ideas to improve a satisfactory system. We are bogged down in NZAO at present. But there are circular and repetitive comments here, and I can’t see it likely that we will break out of our dog-chains without turning around five times until we see we are facing a new direction – as dogs might!

      • Yeah all that cutting bare bones shit has been done a couple of times since 1985. Next door in Aus where they didn’t subscribe to that bs they now have per capita Gdp 40percent higher than NZ when 40 years ago it was similar.

      • But how long will the ‘rebuild’ take Trevor. I know of engineers who are not rubbish at their jobs, 20+ years of experience who have been given the boot. One does a lot of school and hospital planning. Large public buildings of any sort. No-one in govt. thinks we need new schools or hospitals?
        I know another engineer paying a mortgage alone who thinks twice about some grocery items. He is in a one-of-a-kind sort of job. These are educated people. Will they be forced to languish or leave.
        Willis should not have needed to cut the productive parts of the economy to get the savings she wanted. There are heaps of less useful targets.
        Letting Seymour have his wish-list has cost many new classrooms or much-needed repairs in state schools.
        Face it, T. your idols have not delivered and will not deliver. They haven’t just caused the unemployment of the poor old poor, but the so-called squeezed middle as well. The squeezed middle vote and remember.
        The lack of credentials in govt. ministers, amateurs ruining our businesses, will not be forgotten.

  15. ‘Phil Twyford – Immigration, Disarmament and Arms Control, Associate Foreign Affairs
    I like Phil.’
    My personal experience of Phil Twyford is this: When I was trying to help various people with poor English I wrote to several MPs on their behalf.
    Of them all Phil Twyford was the most helpful and actually instructed the government departments he headed to help people.
    So Phil gets a thumbs up from me.

  17. Labour/Greens Maori Party Government is a scary thought.

    Good short term for AirNZ though – they will be buying an extra 50 planes to cater for the exodus.

  18. I still believe the majority of New Zealanders are terrified of a Labour/Maori/Green coalition government.

  19. I’m not a tory but it would be interesting to see who in the National Party Board actually agreed to parachute Christopher Luxon in and let rise to his present position so quickly.
    They could also be asked the reasons why he was anointed as their chosen one and whether they still stand by him now his still star seems on the wane a bit.
    As I am no National Party supporter and I’m rather detached but can anyone point to a worthy alternative leader? All I see are dreadful and dreary little souls I wouldnt get off a bar stool to shake hands with cum election season.

    • In answer to your first question, that paragon of political wisdom – the ponytail puller, John Key.
      In answer to your second question, word/rumour on the street is that Maureen Pugh is destined for greater things than being struck by lightning three times!

  20. Chuckle. Luxon and National have’nt got the message of Trump’s election so it’ll need three years of destruction from Labour-Green-TPM to hammer it through the thick skulls of National.

  21. We know ‘Chippy’ head to foot. I’d like to counter his fervent service of the ABC (Anyone But Cunliffe) faction (most of the MPs) with NAN (Not Another Neoliberal).

    His State of the Nation speech was to a business group. Neoliberal means friend of the rich, not Savage’s ‘friend of the poor’. I know Grant was just about to get around to the neediest when he was voted out of office. Disgusting.

    America is where two rich-friendly parties lead. We have a headstart on that. ‘Tide goes out, comes back in’ ‘Leftism’ is over. Time is no longer endless –mortgages as the first thing is driving into the tsunami coming on us.

    So we need a Norman Kirk talker, not these children of Roger Douglas slippery, slidey producers of not enough.

  22. No, not Chippy.I don’t think he can connect with voters-remembered as a loser from the last election. Keiran McAnulty is the obvious choice to win the election

  23. People voted for change and Luxon has not delivered. If people want Hipkins 18 months after booting him out, Luxon’s tenure must be nearly over.

Comments are closed.