The enormity of Labour beating National in first poll of 2025: Political Winners, Losers and Predictions

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If a Kiwi thinks you have maliciously deceived them, they turn like a packet of crumpets in a moist ill ventilated rental!

The Taxpayers’ Union must have been horrified by the results of their first Political Poll of 2025, so horrified they slipped it out unnoticed on a Friday afternoon.

The results were an enormous wake up call to the Political Right who have horribly misjudged the electorate.

Kiwis were so angry with post Covid bitterness that they turned on Jacinda.

We didn’t have an election in 2023, we had a grudge fuck against Labour.

Labour won the Covid War but lost the Covid Peace

- Sponsor Promotion -

Covid lockdown was a unique universal event that saw everyone sacrifice equally in an unequal society.

The build back never matched the sacrifice while loneliness plus fear saw many dive down social media hate algorithm rabbit holes as alienating woke dogma fed culture war resentment..

Yes Labour spent money to save us from a once in a century pandemic, but every Government did.

The shockwave to global supply chains saw inflation surge everywhere and generate a cost of living crisis as free market dynamics kicked in.

I find it hilarious that Death Cult Capitalists like the Taxpayers’ Union and Libertarian cheerleaders like Damien Grant can bitch relentlessly about the debt Labour created combating Covid when both of them took the Covid wage subsidy that Labour offered…

Taxpayers Union Statement On COVID-19 Wage Subsidy

As confirmed by the Government today, the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union is one of the many employers that have accepted the COVID-19 Wage Subsidy. This decision was made on the basis of our ethical obligations to staff during the government-mandated economic shutdown.

The decision to accept this subsidy was not as simple for us as for most organisations. Prior to COVID-19, we have stated on the record that we would never accept taxpayer funding. That commitment was, of course, made in a time few New Zealanders could possibly have anticipated COVID-19 and the ensuing economic situation.

Businessman took wage subsidy despite believing company would survive without – won’t pay it back

An Auckland businessman says he claimed the Government’s Covid-19 wage subsidy for his business despite believing it could survive without it, but he has no intention of paying it back.

Damien Grant runs Waterstone Insolvency, which specialises in winding up companies, and he is also an occasional columnist .

He’s also a fireworks importer who last year argued against a proposed ban on personal use by the general public.

Speaking this morning to TVNZ1’s Breakfast, Mr Grant said he is a strong critic of the Government giving out the subsidy to struggling businesses – but also said he took the subsidy for his own company.

…so when the Right bitch about the debt Labour created to fight Covid, they don’t mean the money they got, they just resent the money poor people got as well.

With free market acolytes it’s always capitalism for us and socialism for them!

Because I’m a politics geek, I read the manifestos and I warned you all in 2023 that a National, ACT, NZF coalition would be a hard right ruthless Government with a privatisation agenda that would venally benefit their donor interests at the cost of the common good.

No one wanted to hear that because everyone was so bitter post Covid and wanted to blame Jacinda, but allow me to pause and note that the  ‘I told you so’ Express has turned up early.

This Government’s appalling promotion of legislation that slavishly worships their donors interests while implementing a blitzkrieg of abuse of power tactics to ram it through with as little oversight as possible, has manifested an extreme anti-Māori, anti-Treaty, anti-Worker, anti-Renter, anti-beneficiary, anti-environment agenda that Chris Luxon is just too weak to oppose as Winston and David run rings around him every single week.

The real danger for this cavalcade of political circus freaks is that the venal emptiness of laws that only benefit their donors kick in now just as the Economy predictably tanks from this Government’s Austerity program.

They have borrowed more than Labour did for their tax cuts while underfunding all public services by giving them less than they actually needed.

When National claim they have put more money into Health, that’s technically right, but it masks the truth that National gave more than the last budget, but the funding they did give didn’t match inflation or the ageing population so it is a cut back, and this sophistry is being played out in every public service.

There are of course Political winners and losers from this first poll of 2025.

 

WINNERS:

Greens – They have held up incredibly well over the Summer and have managed to keep a solid platform of criticism against the Government. Will probably over cook things with the puberty blocker legislation however, and when you consider how damning the Cass Review was, they risk providing the right with an enormous amount of political ammunition over that review.

NZF – This is a very strong showing for NZF. The challenge for Winston will be in sating his new antivaxxer voter base with some damning report from the Covid Inquiry. The collision between Winston’s economic sovereignty values and the InterIslander Ferry and National’s privatisation agenda could cause an early election.

Chippy – He has made it through the Summer without being rolled! He has kept his powder dry in terms of policy and by simply standing still have allowed the venal idiocy of this greedy right wing government to continue making decisions that are clearly only for the benefit of their donor mates! As pissed off as voters were with Jacinda, her kindness mantra forced state departments and her own Government to stay kind, where as National don’t give a fuck. The difference in what we came to expect with what we are getting now is very jarring. Chippy has been saved by Jacinda’s long shadow and Luxon’s bewildering shallowness. He has to step up now with a policy platform that is meaningful and not incremental or else he will led Labour to another defeat due to apathy.

ACT – While they dip in this poll, the moment National starts disintegrating, they will pick up more protest vote and their 6 month hate tour promoting the Treaty Principles Referendum will become a redneck jamboree. Expect them to pull double digits at the next election, whenever that is.

 

LOSERS:

Labour – I know, I KNOW, I know. How can I have labour in the loser list when they have beaten National?

Easy.

The danger with National being so bad is that Labour can sit on their Hands and do sweet fuck all in terms of policy and just expect to win back the Government because National fuck it up so spectacularly.

That would be the worst case outcome. We need Labour ready to start with a radical new economic agenda that can properly fund our social services with extra revenue brought in by properly taxing the rich!

Māori Party – While they are scoring consistently over 5%, because of MMP, the extra advantage they provide with electorate overhangs from the māori Electorates  is chewed up by a large party vote. The strength of NZF means that if they remain wedded to their current Māori first values, Labour can cut a deal with NZF and leave the Māori Party out in the cold.

National – The fact the Caucus calls Simeon Brown ‘Golden Balls’ and have given him Health highlights all that is wrong inside National.

National are in so much trouble and the first political poll of the year spells that out and in a move of desperation, Luxon throws the luckless Dr Shane Reti under the bus for the massive political headache public health has become BECAUSE OF NATIONAL’S HEALTH BUDGET CUTS!

Remember:

The crisis in health funding is a manufactured one!

In the Budget, National allocated just 2.9% increase to health services but inflation was 3.3% and population growth 2.6% while an ageing population adds more to costs.

National gave 2.9% for health but we needed 8% to stand still, is the electorate dumb enough to fall for National’s latest manufactured public service crisis to introduce more failed free market reforms?

The Finance Minister says we can’t afford $1.4billion for health but we could borrow $14billion for tax cuts?

Believing Simeon bloody Brown is the solution to this manufactured crisis in public health is not serious politics!

Simeon Brown is currently raising speed limits around schools to ‘lift productivity’ FFS!

His literal Christian Faith creates a level of self belief utterly at odds with his actual talent and has only met expectations because he’s 4foot 11 and looks 14 years old!

The Kiwi public are only now waking up to his plan to weaponise our impatience (thanks to roading gridlock) by quietly privatising the roading network.

If sneaking road tolls and congestion prices while slashing public transport subsidies past sleepy hobbits who are triggered every time they see a cyclist is considered ‘competence’ in National, Chris Luxon is in more trouble than were have realised.

Making Simeon Brown the Health Minister is an act of desperation.

Race Relations – While there certainly is a solid 20% of the country who are genuine redneck racists, the vast majority of Kiwis are very laid back and non confrontational folk. Many who voted National did so hoping their house values would lift a little, they sure as Christ weren’t buying into a race war with the Indigenous population of the country!

John Key once described Kiwis as ‘wooly socialists’ when challenged by American diplomats over why we had such a large public service culture in the country, Key was smart enough to ensure crumbs from the big table got to some at the bottom to keep those egalitarian pretensions from erupting.

This Government is led by a Prime Minister who is simply too weak for that.

Economy – The damage this Government’s Austerity program has caused the Economy is far worse than understood.

National point to a lower OCR as proof of their economic stewardship, but that’s just so laughable it’s difficult to accept they are trying it on.

The inflation was generated by Covid supply chain shutdowns, as they have alleviated the inflation has dropped, but the global forces of American hegemonic capitalism is pushing inflation up as the West digests permanent trade inflation as Just-in-time supply chains become Just-in-case supply chains.

National are claiming a victory in forces they have zero influence over.

The truth is that by cutting off Government support for the building industry, thousands of Kiwis with construction skills have left NZ!

National were more focused on ideology than what was best for the NZ economy.

Key reacted to the Global Financial Crisis with a far larger state support program where as this Government has gleefully kicked the legs out from under many organisations and supply chains of labour who had Government contracts.

National believe the market will step in to fill this void.

Allowing the Free Market to provide is a myth that never worked and isn’t working now.

House prices keep dropping, the unemployment rate will soar, more and more people in need will quietly slip away from any interaction with the State, homelessness will explode as the full cost of dumping the building of public housing unfolds.

The biggest impact to the economy could be felt very shortly.

If Trump is serious about tariffs on Day One, it will mean the value of the American currency spikes up dramatically and very quickly. NZ buys its petrol in American dollars, the price of petrol will jump with price shocks that cause dramatic inflationary spikes and a crime wave.

There is nothing in the Treasury forecast that even remotely acknowledges this possibility, so they are prophesying impotent and feeble economic growth as the best case scenario.

Core inflation pressures and a strong employment rate in America has short circuited any belief in a Fed cut as inflationary pressures start forming into stagflation.

The Bond shocks in the first weeks of the year as the reality of Trump’s economic platform dawns on the market is a huge red flag in a sea of red flags.

The realities of the moment will all look far larger than the Government’s capacity to economically respond.

PREDICTIONS:  

By spending a year burning down everything Labour built, National have zero to show for it making 2025 their year of consequences.

Voters will look at the $12 a week tax cut they got and compare it to all the increased costs National have put on every where else and realise they’ve been fleeced.

Look, New Zealanders aren’t that smart (we are great at milking cows, playing rugby, cycling, swimming, masking alcoholism and hiding our alarming domestic violence rates, but not so much inside the Brains Department if you know what I mean. Bless) and can have their resentments easily manipulated, but if a Kiwi thinks you have maliciously deceived them, they turn like a packet of crumpets in a moist ill ventilated rental!

2025 is when this Government’s hard right free market privatisation agenda kicks off and more Kiwis will realise they’ve been taken for a ride.

The moment this trend is picked up by the TVNZ Poll there will be wide spread panic on the Right.

 

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31 COMMENTS

  1. Yeah. All of that ; and tomorrow we see on Martin Luther King Day the inauguration of Trump. Yeah that arse. There’s a switch to the extreme right going on everywhere. Labour in OZ will struggle this year against another bald one who can’t even think up his own slogan so has borrowed National’s. In Europe, OMG. Far Right Parties in ascendency. We have a lot of thinking and a whole lot of organising to do. Meanwhile here, we have Miniature Brown as our new Health Minister. Cones anyone?

    • The victory by Donald Trump is another nail in the coffin of the so called left who are definitely not left,Trudeau yet another example.The world over has learnt these left wing idealists are theorists only without a shred of credibility.

  2. Right Wing landslide is assured 2026.
    Chippy gone by end of this year.
    More scandal in the Green Party.
    Maori persist with fancy dress.
    Labour policy will terrify the conservative middle.

  3. The apparent strategy of Chippy to do nothing is not a strategy,quite simply he doesn’t know what to do.
    I’m surprised at how quietly the Maori Caucus are moving but I’m wary of their clever strategy.Too soon to move is what I believe they are thinking.

  4. A brilliant summation!

    Just looking at Luxon and Willis’s first press conference yesterday and the body language tells you all you need to know….

    The body language… combined with the trite bumbling incoherent answers to some pretty easy questions and the reliance on spreading bullshit demonstrates with alarming clarity that they are in all sorts of trouble…and worse still ..

    ..they have learnt nothing…

    Luxon making Simeon Browne his ‘ go to’ guy should send shivers through every New Zealander as he has conceded, after just one year, that there is a dearth of talent in The Coalition of Chaos that is even worse than one could have imagined…

    Imagine…just for one second….this lot trying to deal with the Covid crisis….N.Z should thank their lucky stars that Jacinda Ardern and Ashley Bloomfield were there to guide us through.

    With the obvious dearth of talent in team Luxon, clearly evident now, what would a real leader do one has to ask…..he would step up to the plate and lead by example…that’s what a real leader does….steps into the breach…fills the void…shores up the troops.

    So is Luxon taking a portfolio…like Health for example…or any portfolio at all for that matter…answer…no!

  5. Labour did Fuck All to beat National who did even Fuck Aller. Could be a good movie -by the Farrley Bros FuckAll and Fuckaller.
    Serious now folks, here’s my take, like it or not: When you sign a team deal (coalition), then you all stand together and get behind the collective deal. Luxon’s big big big big mistake is to be the jellyfish that he is who is scared of losing a few voters over a bit controversy, and so he denounces the ACT TP deal in advance. Big mistake – same mistake NZ Rugby made when treating Fozzy like shit and dissing him before he finished his tenure. Won them no fans! Luxon looks weak, a classic fence sitter. His big excuse – “I’m only interested in the economy and KPIs.” Horseshit Luxon, when you are in team situation, and you are the captain, you stand by the team you fuckwit. That’s how you get appreciated as being strong, even if you are unpopular with some people out there, like everyone here at TDB. Your job, Christopher, fuck that…CHRIS, is not to make them happy, your job is to spearhead a strong coalition that has its shit together. Your decision will come to haunt you if the country decides it likes what it sees, which could easily happen. Then you will look like a Prize Dick. Can’t wait for the fast track back track: “er…um…well yes, the nation has decided bla bla bla and who are we to stand in the way…bla bla bla…”

  6. If a Kiwi thinks you have maliciously deceived them, they turn like a packet of crumpets in a moist ill ventilated rental! That is a remark that will resonate with people on lowish incomes, and perhaps the bourgeoisie middle class. There are some problems with it I consider.

    One is referring to ‘thinks’ – huh that’s a kind word for the machinations of pigeon-popcorn-pecking Kiwis. If such people now think that the gummint maliciously deceived them they are a very slow in the brain as it is following decades of falsity – doh! The one thing that is apposite in the image is the mouldiness of the crumpets. Thinking about crumpet is just about all that some Kiwis can do; they are mouldy already. It’s a bit late and we can only hope the damage may be repaired..

    If in place of thought about important things we just get reaction (Covid19, eg Brexit) and tossing the toys out of the cot, then we who want to make a real change, need more than MMP which everyone pleases to blame stupidly, for problems – it was brought in for good reasons, and people who were concerned about our democracy put a lot of effort into it.

    The image is of trying to crank the engine of a very old car.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFd8uo7ogpM
    Take note. A few decades on it was easier and we might have to learn to do that again on our way to going barefoot as things decline.

    Noam Chomsky has put in a thousand-times more thinking on the unrealised problems that we face right now, or else! 9.56m
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nphuPGERejQ
    Noam Chomsky Reveals How Much Time Is Left Until the End of Organized Humanity

  7. Losers: people who think this is significant – polling during the peak holiday period is liable to give skewed results.
    If it’s a trend, have at it but nobody with a brain wants Labour incompetence and racial separatism I’ll be surprised if this is a trend.
    Granted National are a waste of space.

  8. Of course Damian Grant is a hypocrite but was there a vote on the wage subsidy? Which way did the parties vote? Did National support it? Shall we give Damain a break and focus on the ridiculously hypocritical mob?

    • FFS people took the wage subsidy is akin to people taking the vaccine, you practically had to or Jacinda and her Merry henchmen were going to ruin your life of you didn’t.

      If the option was, you could open for business and operate as normal, OR take the wage subsidy, perhaps many would have opted for the former. But the options were, we will force your business to close, drive away your customers until you’ve used every last cent you have, OR take the wage subsidy.

      There was no option.

  9. Kiwi voters were certainly fooled in 2020 when they were told they were voting in a Labour Party with an agenda that would set the country to rights by a caring government. 3 years on there was little to shout about and the best they could offer was GST off fruit and veg.

    • Voters weren’t told anything of the sort, they voted in masse for Jacinda Ardern as a thank you for saving lives and Labour for being a caring govt that also saved business. What followed was a global meltdown with rising inflation. Un savvy voters like you were sucked in by the spin from the selfish, racist, envious right and hence we have the worst govt in this country’s history.

  10. Labours big problem when polling at under 30% is if they win back some, if not all, of the Maori seats in he next election. This will have two major impacts:
    1. They will get very few MP’s from the list.
    2. It could send the Maori Party, which is a 3% Part Vote party at best, out of Parliament.

    That is goodbye to any left wing Coalition no matter what NZFirst polls.

  11. “… the Greens will probably overcook things with the puberty blockers legislation …”

    Nothing is surer. They must be just about due for another scandal too. Which Green MP will chimp out this time?

  12. When commenting, correctly, that Kiwis aren’t that smart, remember that there has been a deliberate dumbing down of the whole education system, dating back probably to the 1980’s, and in fact we see the evidence of that every single day in Parliament.

    The concomitant, or perhaps slightly later, deterioration of the MSM, has aided and abetted whatever agenda may be being played out here, but New Zealand is certainly no longer a great place to bring up kids, and great only for the “ haves.” Luxon is an apology of a human being, and why is in that job and wanted to be, is inexplicable.

    • Trouble is SW it is explicable; you just have to follow the line of string that has been laid out by past pollies who have left clues to where they came from in the hope that we can find our way back there if necessary. There are treatises carefully scribed for those who wish to understand. However a landslide has dropped and wiped out most of that habitat. We here I think, are trying to rebuild a sanctuary that is accessible to the avid learners of whom there will be growing numbers in very short time.

  13. “Voters will look at the $12 a week tax cut they got and compare it to all the increased costs National have put on every where else and realise they’ve been fleeced.”

    Utterly, absolutely nailed it, Mr Bradbury.

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