The feedback loops are kicking in now…
‘Hydroclimate whiplash’: The new phenomenon unleashing deadly fires on our cities
Californian climate scientists have published one of the timeliest findings in history. Hydroclimate whiplash – a term for the phenomenon of savage seasonal swings between catastrophic rain and sapping drought – is increasing, fast.
Driven by an atmosphere stoked hotter by the burning of fossil fuels, the whiplash is amplifying flash-floods, wildfires, landslides and disease outbreaks, the paper released overnight on Friday found.
To illustrate this volatility, the authors zeroed in on California, where nine atmospheric river storms dumped record-breaking rain over a three-week period last (northern hemisphere) winter. Nearly 30 centimetres of rain hit the University of California, Los Angeles, which led the research, in two days last February. But this winter, barely a drop.
Weather whiplash has proliferated across the globe, including in Australia, which lurched from the state-spanning blazes of Black Summer to a three-year bout of rain-making La Nina weather systems.
…intense rainfall creates a jump in plants which feed the next fire loop during the next drought cycle. Then intense flash flooding hits parched ground and erodes soil more intensely.
The extra moisture weakens the jet stream and the polar vortex slips.
Massive methane releases from permafrost and the ocean floor melts all the Greenland ice sheets which sends enormous amounts of fresh water into the Labrador Sea which disrupts the AMOC into shut down, inadvertently starting an ice age.
All this as the Planet plunges into catastrophic climate change…
Earth records hottest year ever in 2024 and the jump was so big it breached a key threshold
Earth recorded its hottest year ever in 2024, with such a big jump that the planet temporarily passed a major climate threshold, several weather monitoring agencies announced Friday.
Last year’s global average temperature easily passed 2023’s record heat and kept pushing even higher. It surpassed the long-term warming limit of 1.5C since the late 1800s that was called for by the 2015 Paris climate pact, according to the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Service, the United Kingdom’s Meteorology Office and Japan’s weather agency.
The European team calculated 1.6C of warming. Japan found 1.57C and the British 1.53C in releases of data coordinated to early Friday morning European time.
American monitoring teams — Nasa, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the private Berkeley Earth — were to release their figures later Friday but all will likely show record heat for 2024, European scientists said. The six groups compensate for data gaps in observations that go back to 1850 — in different ways, which is why numbers vary slightly.
Even now as LA burns, fuckwit right wing Trolls be screaming that the fire is all Democrats fault for Firefighting cut backs.
Fuckwit right wing Trolls will point to every single thing OTHER THAN global warming to explaining the catastrophic climate change we are seeing.
Fuckwit right wing Trolls be the problem, not climate activists.
Fuckwit right wing Trolls play into the narrative promoted by Big Oil and the polluter class to avoid any political consequences for global warming.
We are now post-Time.
The last 3 centuries of carbon exploitation for capitalism has laid a price upon the rest of us in the present that no one agreed to.
We are in an age of consequences that are so enormous that we either sink into denial or avoid the issue altogether.
We are post-Time now that we are in the epoch of Anthropogenic global warming.
We are on a doom-loop of heat while Fuckwit right wing Trolls sing, “We didn’t start the fire”.
I have been warning and arguing for over a decade that Global Warming represents an existential crisis to our species because built within the biosphere are tipping points that once crossed will see catastrophic shifts in temperatures that will make complex societies impossible within large parts of the planet.
The speed of how quickly the global weather systems are unravelling is unprecedented and the latest research out yesterday on one of the most important tipping points, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current, is so much worse than anyone thought possible that it demands an immediate reset of everything we do and highlights that Fortress Aotearoa is our last hope.
The research is just so bad…
A vital system of ocean currents could collapse within a few decades if the world continues to pump out planet-heating pollution, scientists are warning – an event that would be catastrophic for global weather and “affect every person on the planet.”
A new study published Tuesday in the journal Nature, found that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current – of which the Gulf Stream is a part – could collapse around the middle of the century, or even as early as 2025.
Scientists uninvolved with this study told CNN the exact tipping point for the critical system is uncertain, and that measurements of the currents have so far showed little trend or change. But they agreed these results are alarming and provide new evidence that the tipping point could occur sooner than previously thought.
The AMOC is a complex tangle of currents that works like a giant global conveyor belt. It transports warm water from the tropics toward the North Atlantic, where the water cools, becomes saltier and sinks deep into the ocean, before spreading southwards.
It plays a crucial role in the climate system, helping regulate global weather patterns. Its collapse would have enormous implications, including much more extreme winters and sea level rises affecting parts of Europe and the US, and a shifting of the monsoon in the tropics.
For years, scientists have been warning of its instability as the climate crisis accelerates, threatening to upset the balance of temperature and salinity on which the strength of these currents depend.
As the oceans heat up and ice melts, more freshwater flows into the ocean and reduces the water’s density, making it less able to sink. When waters become too fresh, too warm or both, the conveyor belt stops.
It has happened before. More than 12,000 years ago, rapid glacier melt caused the AMOC to shut down, leading to huge Northern Hemisphere temperature fluctuations of 10 to 15 degrees Celsius (18 to 27 Fahrenheit) within a decade.
A shutdown “would affect every person on the planet – it’s that big and important,” said Peter de Menocal, the president of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, who was not involved in the study.
A 2019 report by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted that the AMOC would weaken over this century, but that its full collapse before 2100 was unlikely.
This new study comes to a much more alarming conclusion.
As the AMOC has only been continuously monitored since 2004, the study authors looked to a much larger dataset, and one which could show how the currents behaved in a period without human-caused climate change.
“We needed to go back in time,” said Peter Ditlevsen, a professor of climate physics at the University of Copenhagen and one of the authors of the report. The scientists analyzed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic in an area south of Greenland over a period of 150 years between 1870 and 2020.
This part of the ocean is warmed by the water transported north from the tropics by the AMOC, Ditlevsen said, “so if it cools, it’s because the AMOC is weakening.” The authors then subtracted the impacts of human-caused global warming on the water temperature to understand how the currents were changing.
They found “early warning signals” of critical changes in the AMOC, which led them to predict “with high confidence” that it could shut down or collapse as early as 2025 and no later than 2095. The likeliest point of collapse is somewhere between 2039 and 2070, Ditlevsen said.
“It’s really scary,” he told CNN. “This is not something you would lightly put into papers,” he said, adding, “we’re very confident that this is a robust result.”
De Menocal said the study results were “both surprising and alarming.”
It’s been clear for a while that the AMOC will weaken in the coming decades, he told CNN. In 2021, a study found the AMOC was showing signs of instability due to climate change.
…fuckwits in NZ who claim ‘there’s nothing we can do’ about climate change don’t understand that it’s already done!
The temperature swings predicted are beyond species ability to adapt and are beyond civilisations capacity to function.
If the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current shuts down, Fortress Aotearoa is our only move.
It is time to Think Bigger!
Chris Trotter warns us that Autarky can not be NZs future because we don’t have enough self-sufficiency built into NZs economy.
I agree that’s a problem, but it certainly isn’t an impossible problem to overcome.
Yes we need a basic pharmaceutical industry if we want to be self sufficient.
Yes I believe we urgently need to raise our military spending to 5% of GDP.
Yes Māori we’re able to live here self sufficiently for almost a century but I’m not suggesting a subsistence existence.
The naked truth is that Fortress Aotearoa will be forced upon us whether we are willing or not.
The catastrophic heat via pollution locked into our system goes so beyond what the ice core samples tell us that we are in uncharted territory.
Normally heat like this occurs over hundreds of thousands of years thanks to the angle of the Earth on its axis but we have done that in less than 3 centuries!
When the process occurs naturally over hundreds of thousands of years, the sudden and dramatic flip from burning hot to ice age can occur within decades. Create all that power within centuries and we turbo charge those flipping points in ways far more abrupt and damaging.
The rapid melting of the doomsday glacier in Antarctica and the shut down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will trigger irreversible environmental collapse within decades, not the end of the century.
There is no optimism on the climate front, just consequences now.
With such significant weather catastrophes occurring with ever more whithering destruction, other country’s will move to Autarky, will NZers cheers those planes landing with tourists while burning more climate gases or will they attack the Airports to shut them down?
Look at how every poll in NZ shows over 50% support for a total close of the border from a virus with the low mortality rate of Covid?
The climate crisis destroys environments and makes it more likely and probable that an Alpha virus far more lethal than Covid-19 will emerge – you think Kiwis will
While the globalists infect every political party in NZ, all it takes is one populist spark to breath Fortress NZ into life.
Post growth capitalism with true sustainability calls for Autarky on a burning planet than can’t take anymore globalism.
Muldoon thought big because he believed the oil shocks of the 70s was the future. He was wrong then but that doesn’t mean he’s wrong now.
The US Military Industrial complex simply solved the problem of an Oligopoly by seeding and backing harsh authoritarian regimes with lots of oil so that they could always access cheap petrol making Muldoon’s investment meaningless but The Military Industrial Complex can’t negotiate with the planet as we make it sicker and sicker!
As the reality of the enormity of climate change starts to dawn, people will be looking for ‘lifeboats’, NZ is one of these ‘lifeboats’…
Why NZ could be humanity’s ‘lifeboat’ in an extinction
Scientists have singled out New Zealand as a potential “ark” to reboot civilisation if a deadly pandemic swept the planet.
In a study just published in the international journal Risk Analysis , researchers found that New Zealand, along with Australia and Iceland, could serve as “lifeboats” to help humanity recover from a full-scale extinction event.
…while the focus here is on a pandemic, the same is true of NZ being a lifeboat for climate change.
The current political spectrum in New Zealand can not radically adapt fast enough to adopt the changes we must make if we are to survive the climate crisis. It will require a radical Political Movement that elects a Party to implement Fortress Aotearoa…
-
- Move away from intensive farming and look to become domestically self sustainable in terms of food.
- Immediately ban all water exports
- 5 year Parliamentary term.
- Upper and Lower House (Upper House 50-50 split between Māori & Pakeha that can hold up legislation if unhappy about Treaty issues)
- Massive investment into R&D from Government with the understanding research is to benefit NZ first before sold offshore.
- Large scale increase in Navy, Army & Airforce.
- Mass limiting of tourism numbers with increased tourist taxes.
- Only citizens can vote.
- Sustainable immigration and an end to exploitative migrant workers.
- Resettlement Programms for all pacific island neighbours.
- Increase refugee in take to 10000 per year
- Fully funded public services.
- Mass Green housing rebuild.
- 100% renewable energy for entire country.
- Massive native tree planting across previous farming land.
- Wholesale re-write of state services act to end commercial values.
- Investment into basic pharmaceutical production.
- Financial transaction tax
- Wealth tax
- Multinational tax
- Inheritance tax
As the climate crisis unfolds more and more people in fury will turn against the current political system too wedded to the economic profits margins of the polluters. It is just a matter of time before the NZ electorate rejects the limitations of the current political spectrum.
The climate crisis will demand we have the military engineering capacity to rebuild from extreme weather events; have the military power to project across the Pacific in response to climate crisis civil disruption or extreme weather events; protection of fishing stock.
To ignore the real need for us to invest far larger amounts into the Defence force and to build a bigger Air, Land and Sea service as a response to the crisis emergency is as unacceptable as climate denial is.
And while we are talking about the consequences of the climate crisis, Australia wants passport free travel…
Australia and New Zealand citizens could have passport-free travel if security talks successful
…we should only agree on this for very specific wins like a shared pharmaceutical industry because as the climate crisis overwhelms Australia’s ability to survive at certain temperatures, NZ will be flooded with Australian climate refugees.
There’s barely 5million of us and 26million of them. Let’s keep our distance.
The tyranny of distance has always been our malaise but on a burning planet of constant external shocks the Shire of NZ is looking very good right now.
‘Build that wall’ will soon become ‘defend that moat’.
In 1980, the time between billion dollar climate destruction events was 3 months.
It’s now 18 days.
There is a point where the next destructive weather event strikes before you can rebuild from the last one.
Fortress Aotearoa is coming whether we want it or not.
Increasingly having independent opinion in a mainstream media environment which mostly echo one another has become more important than ever, so if you value having an independent voice – please donate here.
Not looking good for humans, and what remains of wildlife to be sure. Millions will be relocated, starve, swamped, burnt or in armed conflicts.
Capital does little on a voluntary basis. So fortress NZ will happen on a haphazard rather than planned way.
Society will revert to total dog eat dog unless the 90% organise. I know rural gun toters that will shoot people looking for food and resources, but as I said to one-a Fert spreader-”you will run out of ammo eventually…”
Cyclone Gabrielle showed the havoc for people and infrastructure from just one event, get those supplies and go bags ready wherever you live.
Any gardeners on this forum can attest to the irregularity of seasons. Some years some crops just don’t do well, whilst others thrive. That’s just domestic gardening. Now imagine being a farmer.
If we are the ark, or an ark, then this makes us valuable, NZ will finally have value much in the same way that oil rich or mineral rich countries have value. And look at what happened to them, meaning we’ll have a US military base here, soon enough, protecting or controlling valuable resources, albeit not theirs, not that this has ever mattered to them. Problem kinda solved. Where value resides, the powerful pounce, so Fortress Aotearoa might turn out to be called Fortress Americraroa if the rationale behind all of this holds true!
Makes me think of Bruno Lawrence and The Quiet Earth film,. (Also we need another one or two Blertas!)
The Quiet Earth centres around a scientist called Zac (BRUNO LAWRENCE) who wakes one morning to discover he is alone in the world. The global top-secret energy project (OPERATION FLASHLIGHT) which he has been working on for a year, has changed the world. Humanity seems to have been wiped out.
The Quiet Earth – New Zealand Film Commission
New Zealand Film Commission
https://www.nzfilm.co.nz
We’ll likely be the “B” Ark. 😉
Normalcy bias means our hunter-gatherer brains simply can’t comprehend the enormity of climate change hitting us, of what it means. Normalcy Norman will just shrug off the climate boffins: the sun still comes up everyday mate! No worries!
We need to start now and keep the population at no more than 5 million for a start .We dont have enough fresh clean water to support those who live here now let alone another 5 million .Already my council is bitching about water being used to water the Kai mara .If we are being restricted on water use now to grow our own food how is an over populated dry NZ going to cope .
I dont think NZ will be any type of utopia as already we are getting dryer in some areas then huge rain the next .Just look at the change in Aus in the last couple of years with the areas of NSW and QLD having massive flood events several times a year ,where as they used to be a decade apart .
Where our weather used to follow AUS that is no longer the case as we seem to be avoiding those rains here .Over population will destroy NZ on many levels .
Don’t build houses on flood plains or in the middle of high fire risk bush land.
That’s very sensible thinking Bob1st – the first I’ve noticed from you. Keep it up.
Instead begin with not farming in deserts.
“It is just a matter of time before the NZ electorate rejects the limitations of the current political spectrum.”
Us non voters already have…
What happens when we reach critical mass and the system no longer has a mandate to govern ?
NZ will be totally toast in the next two years so we will be a sinking ARK .
wILLIS WILL SINK THE ARK BEFORE IT GETS BUILT AND BROWN WILL UNDER COST IT SO ITS GONE BURGER
Global Temperature Anomaly Skyrockets UPWARDS like a BAT out of HELL, to as HIGH as 1.62 C
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fynh8m8Enns
@billyjoesmo8251
2 hours ago
I’m so sick and tired of hearing people saying nobody knew it was going to be this bad I can name 20 scientists that were right on point including yourself
@calebrochester9516
1 hour ago
I wonder if the biosphere will be destroyed. Down to the last fungus.
1
@Nine-Signs
36 minutes ago
@calebrochester9516 lol …. fungus was here at the start of time, I doubt anything can truly kill it. Cockroaches have nothing on fungus.
@robertforsythe3280
2 hours ago
High population locals will suffer first. As we await the Flood that is on the way. The AMOC slow down will buy time. Much like the Atmospheric Swamp coolers that move to the Gulf’s hot water basin. A reduction in the Human population will reduce green house gas production. However all those microscopic organic eating , methane making ground stuff has been awakened. Too Late Charley Brown.
” Chris Trotter warns us that Autarky can not be NZs future because we don’t have enough self-sufficiency built into NZs economy. ”
Bullshit. Did he really say that? Bull-shit.
You wrote @ MB
” I agree that’s a problem, but it certainly isn’t an impossible problem to overcome.”
It’s an impossible problem to overcome if you believe what you’re told by liars in parliament, their corrupt msm and about 120 years of the non stop, unrelenting exploitation of our farmers.
50,000 farmers earn your GDP. That’s right. 50,000 people earn the money and supply the food we need to function.
There are other ventures that earn a few dollars but nothing equals our farmer abilities to produce, then export, then feed an estimated forty million people.
We need to purge our AO/NZ of the foreign owned banks, we need to mandate voting and we need to take time out to thank all the Baby Jesuses that we’re here and now.
Has anyone traveled through South Otago or Southland recently?
You would see many all but deserted yet once were bustling towns, you would see the deliberate ruination of a world class rail infrastructure, you would see good roading, bridge work and dams still standing strong despite lacking in maintenance. You would see hydro electricity generation and wind turbines all feeding the rapacious greed of Aucklands captured populace bowing down before their abusers in the now foreign owned banks.
We AO/NZ’ers have a wondrous place to call our place, our Tūrangawaewae, our place to stand, and as I write, there are those vulgar few who’re abusing our good fortune for their greed and ego. That, must stop.
We farmers and our Maori whanau must join together and save our AO/NZ before it’s too late and as Hank ( Charles.) Bukowski once said ” There nothing worse than too late.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Chinaski
Youtube documentary
https://youtu.be/lJ-sWzzhL_o?feature=shared
“Chris Trotter warns us that Autarky can not be NZs future because we don’t have enough self-sufficiency built into NZs economy.”
i.e. don’t even try.
How unusual of Chris.
In looking at what has happened to LA, let’s make sure we look at the real culprits like Stewart Resnick and Dianne Feinstein. No more of these monsters can be allowed to escape to New Zealand.
https://perfectunion.us/how-this-billionaire-couple-stole-californias-water-supply/