Ben Morgan’s Pacific Update A simple explanation of this week’s military and political developments in the Pacific

Australian investment in undersea drones, a glimpse of the future

Any future war in the Pacific will be all about area denial, preventing your opponent moving their ships into or around the contested area.  Generally, by swamping them with missiles fired at long-range from bases on land, that are unsinkable. Recent conflicts provide a glimpse of how accurate long-range missiles and drones allow a force to deny areas of the ocean’s surface to its opponent. China has based its strategy for military competition with the US on being able to flood the sky above a carrier task group with enough missiles to overwhelm the group’s advanced air defences. 

A way to address surface area denial strategies is to submerge, this is why the US has an enormous fleet of nuclear-powered submarines and why the AUKUS deal is structured around these vessels.  In the unlikely event of a Pacific war, the US Navy’s offensive action will probably be led by its nuclear-powered submarines. 

Drones offer opportunities to multiply the effects of weapons systems, and in the 13 February 2024 Pacific Brief we discussed Australia’s development of Ghost Bat aerial drones that will work in conjunction with crewed aircraft. The drone providing a ‘wing man,’ long-range surveillance or acting as decoys depending on the mission. The same theory applies with regards to undersea drones or Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUV), that uncrewed vessels can be used to cheaply extend the range and capabilities of a crewed vessel. 

The Australian government is committed to developing a home grown AUV, Ghost Shark. The vessel will have a very long-range and be able to operate far from a base station. In time, its activities will be easily integrated with nearby Australian and allied vessels providing new stealthy surveillance and strike capabilities.  Australia’s recent undersea communications programme with Japan and the technology in Pillar 2 of AUKUS all contribute to creating the communications networks that allow easy inter-operability of AUVs and for their integration with crewed vessels. 

In simple terms, the US and its allies are developing sophisticated undersea capabilities to counter China’s area denial tactics. AUVs are a ‘combat multiplier’ or platform or system that increase the lethality of an existing system. For instance, a Los Angeles Class nuclear-powered attack submarine may soon be operating with a small flotilla of AUVs that dramatically increase the area of ocean it can monitor or attack. And, without the need for crew these vessels can be smaller and therefore are cheaper to produce.  

Exercise Tropic Twilight, small but important 

New Zealand funds the annual ‘Tropic Twilight’ exercise that is currently underway in Tonga. The exercise is a good example of how Pacific nations other than the US and Australia support smaller countries.  About 70 service personnel from New Zealand, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Australia, United States, United Kingdom, Japan and New Caledonia will travel to Tonga to participate in the exercise.  

Exercise Tropic Twilight is a military exercise but involves engineering work to upgrade a community centre, two local schools and a metrological station.  Part of a programme to strengthen local resilience; the schools and community centre providing shelter during natural disasters and the meteorological station providing better local weather information during events.  

This type of exercise is a vitally important part of Pacific collective security, even though the activity’s outcomes are focussed on resilience rather than warfighting.  The exercise provides an opportunity for nations to work together, build relationships and develop trust.  Important building blocks for any future deployment.

In 2006, New Zealand and Australian soldiers and police were deployed to Tonga to support the government after rioting erupted in the capital Nuku’alofa.  Exercises like Tropic Twilight provide the relationships that enable effective deployments supporting security.  But most importantly they contribute to long-term stability by building community resilience, reinforcing trust and confidence in state institutions and in overseas partners, building blocks of regional collective security.

Concerns about Chinese police in the Pacific continue

China providing police support to small nations within the Pacific, continues to create diplomatic tension. Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Tonga, Kiribati are all small Pacific nations that have received support and training from Chinese police forces. 

In some nations like Solomon Islands and Kiribati, that support involves teams embedded for long-periods in the local police force.  A situation that both the US and Australia have stated their concerns about, probably because embedded police have very good access to information about local people and communities that can be used to produce intelligence.  And, intelligence is the basis for effective operations in any domain of war be it; land, sea, air, cyber or information. 

Last week, Chinese offers to support Tonga as it prepares for this year’s Pacific Island’s Forum were reported, raising concern in Australia. 

In the current tense security environment, the US and Australia are very unlikely to change their position regarding China offering support with policing to Pacific nations, so expect this programme to continue to cause concern with these nations.   

Kiribati, a small nation’s state institutions under-fire

Kiribati’s executive has been fighting with its judiciary for a long-time.  In September 2022, the nation’s parliament suspended the foreign-born judges that serve the nation’s highest courts. The High Court’s Chief Justice William Hastings and Justice David Lambourne and Court of Appeal’s Justices Peter Blanchard, Rodney Hansen and Paul Heath of the Court of Appeal. The judges were suspended pending investigation to remove them from office based on claims of alleged inability or misbehaviour.

This action was internationally condemned. The freedom of the judiciary from political interference is a key pillar of any well-governed nation. The Lowery Institute, an Australian think-tank wrote a scathing report in 2022, the New Zealand Law Society highlighted the situation and even the UN sent a special raconteur to help mediate the situation. 

This situation continues and last week, Justice David Lambourne was removed from office by a vote of the Kiribati parliament.

Regular readers will remember that Kiribati is a focal point of Sino-American competition.  It is strategically located south of Hawaii, a large US naval base.  The US recently raised concerns about Chinese ‘police advisors’ on the island.  Kiribati is also a small Pacific nation with vast territorial waters that may become a sponsor for deep-sea mining.  Both factors that contribute to the potential for political interference and instability. 

One protection from political interference, either by other nations or by large companies, is a strong and independent legal system, including a its judiciary.  So, the ongoing battle between Kiribati’s parliament and its judiciary should be of grave concern to all nations in the Pacific. 

Solomon Islands election update

The Pacific awaits the election outcome. However, after no clear winner was apparent when counting finished, politicking to form a government continues.  The outcome is likely to be a defining feature of Pacific politics because the next government’s foreign policy, specifically its relationship with China, will influence other Pacific nations.  Solomon Islands is about to set a trend, either by embracing Manasseh Sogavare’s pro-China foreign policy or by rejecting it and mending its relationship with the nation’s traditional security partners. 

Another scenario is that Solomon Islands new government embrace Sino-American competition and the country’s strategic location to try and maximise benefits, playing both sides off against each other in exchange for more aid and development support.  Potentially, a very de-stabilising scenario. 

Melanesian update 

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia. 

Big drug bust in Papua New Guinea

In these columns, we have highlighted the developing drug trade that threatens Pacific stability and security. Last week, Australian police intercepted 289kg of cocaine on a flight from Papua New Guinea. The seized drugs have an estimated street value of AU$ 94 million (US$ 61,763,170).

This is a significant amount of money anywhere, but when shipping through a small and relatively poor nation with an average annual salary of approximately US$ 11,500 per annum it is even more impressive.  Papua New Guinea’s low wage economy also has high unemployment. Low wages and high unemployment make drug trafficking exceptionally attractive. 

Drug trafficking undermines the cohesion of communities. In 2022, the Lowery Institute’s report ‘Drug trafficking in the Pacific Islands: The impact of transnational crime’ included this statement “In a region plagued by “unmet development challenges”, transnational crime and illicit drugs are a cross-cutting threat to development, security, and governance in the Pacific.” The whole Pacific faces significant drug trafficking issues that provide opportunities for hostile actors (state or non-state) to undermine the rule of law.  

Papua New Guinea’s state institutions are already weak and poorly funded, large quantities of illegal drug money provides an economic incentives and capacity to weaken them further creating more and larger security issues. The larger nations of the Pacific need to work with the smaller nations to address this important security issue. 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack