Ben Morgan’s Pacific Update

New air defence missile system operational on New Zealand frigates 

The New Zealand navy’s two frigates, HMNZS Te Mana and Te Kaha recently completed testing of their new Sea Ceptor missile system.  This missile is an English anti-aircraft missile that replaces the original RIM 7 – Sea Sparrow air defence missile. 

The new missiles are part of a larger upgrade that includes a new tactical information management system.  An important aspect of naval combat is the ability to identify, track and assess threats.  An attacking enemy will try to swamp a ship’s defences using multiple vectors of attack that can include aircraft or missiles approaching from multiple directions and the use of decoys. The better a ship is at managing information, the better is at picking and prioritising the most important threats.  

Sea Ceptor is a new generation weapon with a published range of 25km but defence commentators estimate it has a much longer range. Sea Ceptor is also able to hit very low, fast-moving targets like cruise missiles. 

Combined with Sea Ceptor the new tactical information management system will make New Zealand’s frigates much tougher targets.  An especially important consideration as drones and precision guided missiles become more common. 

France hosts Pacific Defence Minister’s meeting

On 5-6 December, French Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu hosted the South Pacific Defence Ministers Meeting in New Caledonia. This is the first time that France has hosted the meeting and it is a further indication that France sees itself as a key player in the Pacific.  

The meeting focussed on coordination of regional armed forces to support nations impacted by natural disasters and support for preventing illegal fishing. France, Australia and New Zealand agreed to work together to provide disaster relief assistance to other Pacific nations in 1992, so there is a history of this type of activity.  Further, there were discussions about developing military relationships and strengthening interoperability, or the ability for nation’s militaries to work together during conflict. 

Speaking in the Philippines, prior to the South Pacific Defence Ministers Meeting, Lecornu said “I think Pacific island states are faced with very real threats, including climate change. They also face huge challenges in terms of respect for their sovereignty, including maritime. They also watch the formation of blocks in the North (Pacific) and are worried about the consequences in the South (Pacific).” A statement that summed up the Pacific’s key concerns.

France’s increased visibility in the Pacific and desire to demonstrate a leadership role in the Pacific both diplomatically and militarily is an important trend.  France has always taken a relatively independent approach to foreign affairs and is not a natural part of the developing US, Australia and UK power block and this activity demonstrates the multi-polar nature of modern Pacific geo-politics. 

Japan, South Korea and the US work together to counter cyber threats

The National Security Advisors of Japan, South Korea and the US announced a new trilateral agreement to combat illicit North Korean cyber-activity, especially the use of cryptocurrencies to launder money and evade sanctions.  The nations are concerned that the proceeds of state sponsored cyber-crime are used to fund North Korea’s ballistic missile programme.

North Korea’s increasingly close relationship with Russia, provides access to technology the purchase of which can be funded through cyber-crime. Further, cryptocurrency has the potential to be used for transferring funds and evade sanctions. 

This agreement and other recent measures like Australia’s funding of cyber-security support for smaller nations indicates the developing role of cyber activity in the security dynamics of the Pacific region.  Small nations with limited resources are as dependent on the internet as larger nations but have less resources to monitor cyber-crime or to stop cyber-attacks.  If deep sea mining and other exploitation of natural resources brings more money into the Pacific, we can expect to see more cyber-crime.  Some of it likely to be sponsored by nations like Russia and North Korea either to evade sanctions or to raise revenue.  

Australia highlights climate change’s security threat 

Recently, Australia’s Climate Change Minister, Chris Bowen highlighted the threat posed by climate change for the Pacific.  Increasing levels of extreme weather and sea-level rise will impact on the region creating the need for Australia to help smaller nations.  Bowen also discussed the threat that climate change poses to security.  

The changing climate creates many potential security risks because fisheries change or move, low-lying land will disappear and more extreme weather events damage infrastructure.  Essentially, the Pacific faces a period of very sudden change that will leave some people significantly less healthy, wealthy and secure. Changes that create social tensions that could boil over into conflict. 

It is important that Australia’s parliament is discussing these issues and starting to plan how to support other nations and play a leadership role in the region’s response to climate changes. This is a sensible strategy that could reduce the risk of social tension caused by climate change evolving in conflict. 

Pacific Resilience Fund

Mark Brown, Prime Minister of Cook Islands announced at COP 28 that the Pacific Resilience Fund is due to start operating in 2025.

This fund is a Pacific led and owned initiative that provides financial support for increasing resilience. It was established using US and Australian seed funding and aims to provide grants to communities in the Pacific that can be used for projects that make them more resilient to climate change impacts. 

The Pacific Resilience Fund is an interesting example of a way that larger nations can support smaller nations. The objective of the plan is to raise $ 500 million that can be invested so that the interest can be used in perpetuity to finance small local grants. This model provides opportunities for local leadership and autonomy, unlike many conventional aid schemes.  It is a powerful idea that may provide local communities across the Pacific with access to the funds they need to make themselves more resilient.  And, a more resilient Pacific is a more secure Pacific.

Melanesian update 

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia. 

Australia and Papua New Guinea sign security agreement

Papua New Guinea and Australia signed a bi-lateral security agreement on 7 December. This agreement follows close on the heels of the nation’s security agreement with the US in May this year. The agreement includes support for Papua New Guinea’s military and police. Additionally, it includes support for the nation’s judiciary.  This is important, regular readers will understand the importance of governance and strong state institutions for security in Papua New Guinea. 

Papua New Guinea is strategically located near shipping lanes and has vast untapped natural resources including mineral, gas and gold deposits.  By supporting the police and judiciary Australia contributes to strengthening Papua New Guinea’s state institutions making them more resilient to external influence or corruption.    

Chinese logging dispute in Vanuatu

The Vanuatu government has stopped a shipment of logs from Vanuatu to China. The shipment has been stopped because the logging company, Vanuatu Forest Industry Limited is alleged to have broken the conditions of its license by shipping the logs to China for processing rather than doing this work in Vanuatu. Further, there are also claims that trees were felled illegally in areas not allocated for logging.

Although this is a relatively small story it is worth watching because it may provide an example of a small nation actively managing and protecting its resources. 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer and TDBs military blogger