Good to see the mainstream media slowly catching up with The Daily Blog again.
This time, the election is as close as TDB has been telling you…
Election 2023: Can Labour win from here?
Labour/the Greens/Te Pāti Māori would have 61 seats & National/ACT would get 59 if:
– Labour rises by 2.1%
– Greens rise by 1%
– National falls by 1%
– ACT drops 1%
– NZ First drops 1%
– TPM unchanged
Using the Herald Poll of Polls as the starting point, the following scenario, as an example, would lead to a Labour-led Government, with National and Act on 59 seats and Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori on 61 seats:
National, currently on 35.8 per cent, falls by 1 point to 34.8 per cent.
Labour, currently on 26.8 per cent, rises by 2.1 points to 28.9 per cent.
The Greens, currently on 12. 3 per cent, rise by 1 point to 13.3 per cent.
Act, currently on 10.6 per cent, drops by 1 point to 9.6 per cent.
New Zealand First, currently on 5.7 per cent, drops by 1 point to 4.7 per cent.
Te Pāti Māori, on 2.8 per cent, remains unchanged.
In this scenario, the movement is generally a three-point movement away from the centre-right to the left.
Folks, TDB has been telling you that the election is far closer than the mainstream media pretend in it is.
You can either read it here first or wait for the media to trip over it.
If the Left votes, the Left wins.
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Planning to go do my two ticks Green on friday
If the left vote, the left win!
And New Zealand loses.
Just you Gazza the rest of New Zealand wins!
@ GP.
” And New Zealand loses” How? And what? How and what would New Zealand ‘lose’?
If AO/NZ were left to it’s natural and untainted self, it’d flourish. If our farmers were not the playthings to the natzo’s who trade us to big bankster business as if we were beads and sugar we’d be the darlings of the northern hemisphere with every person who needs to do that most old fashioned thing known as ‘eating’. That’s what it WAS like when I was a young-un toiling in the fields and tilling the turf. My Dr told me recently that he was impressed with my ability to stand on one leg. Neural pathways and all that. It was really because I was used to standing on the back of a drill/ lime sower while navigating steep Southland hill sides behind my terminally brooding father trying to tip me off so he could shout ‘No hoper’ at me. Ah… Old Southland cockies aye. None harder ever stood. They were why God invented good Drugs, did you know that? He looked down upon the mud wrought and brooding wretched and said unto someone somewhere, probably a tree or a tussock and again said ” You poor cunts look like you need hallucinogenics” and so it was.
The real reason why New Zealand might ‘lose’ is because the lying scum fuck natzo’s and their little MMP warts have exploited our farmers to a point of emotional, social, psychological and spiritual exhaustion. I mean, slow tractor driving designed to simply piss innocent people off is a pretty desperate and self abusive attempt at revolution when all farmers need to do is nothing at all. No Swelling, no tractors, no angry harrumphing. Just stay in bed and pop the blanket on 3 with a cup of tea and a ginger nut and watch on at the howling and the wailing and the gnashing of teeth coming out of the Rangies, the Audi’s, the BMW’s the Lamborghini’s and the Ferrari’s pulled up just out your bedroom window. You know what you do? Let the dogs off because there’d be plenty of tyre pissing to do.
Don’t you mean the Rich pricks, parasitic Landlords, Property Speculators & greedy Corporate interests lose, not NZ?
LOL Very dry.
thank you marty you given me hope we can keep national out and it would good result as minor partys could extract some teal reforms
Not sure how this could even happen, Labour are that bad — unless they run an extremely negative scare campaign.
Voting has been going great guns so they are already toast, it’s just a question of how burnt the toast will be.
Voting is down on 2020. Your lies are worse than Luxon/Willis’s.
i think the greens are going to do better than media thinks
Mike Hipkins saying that New Zealand will be seeing more of Jacinda Ardern will knock a few more votes off Labour.
It’s irrelevant. Together with labour they’ll be lucky to have 30% as currently they just fighting each other.
The main horse has well and truly bolted for greener pastures under a National Act government with maybe a sprinkling of NZ First
Lucky to get 30%?
I’ll put a million on it they do. Have you the guts to match it. OR Is it just juvenile rhetoric on your behalf again?
And then you woke up with your hand on it Gary.
Even the acceptable face of the Greens is laying low
What do you mean
Jack means lying low. Poor English skills.
Both are acceptable and are dictionary definitions train spotter
Jack Is that the Indian lady who says that white people are stupid and defund the police; one who escaped from Invercargill to write Gender Change for Dummies, or Marama or Golriz, or one who waka jumped ? One who stole another’s girlfriend?
Nah SW, it was the one who stole the name of a dead baby for his personal use, ACT MP.
Not as bad as the Act Dunedin candidate taking his lead from Seemore (his boss) making his Maori gaza strip nasty racist comment.
National under 35, Labour over 30.
ACT under 10 and Greens 15%.
The problem might be ACT falling so far they meet NZF at 6-8%.
Which means Luxon gets first go at forming a government – a 1996 scenario would end differently with NZF sans waka jumping giving a Labour leader a chance at forming a government within 18 months.
And then you woke up.
If the Left votes, the Left wins!
ACT all the way.
Martyn – Without NZ First – Labour is stuffed…Labour should have reached out to NZ First to mend that bridge.
Nathan. Quite. But with Jacinda still hovering, regrettably that was unlikely. As others have said, NZFirst have the potential to provide a brake on extremists on both sides.
Gentle Annie – 100% Correct
Funny how National have tanked since Key got involved in Nationals campaign.
They may already have reached out… you just don’t know.
Justine Kase – Publicly – “No” Privately – “Perhaps…”
Not as bad as the Act Dunedin candidate taking his lead from Seemore (his boss) making his Maori gaza strip nasty racist comment.
I have just woke up from wanting to vote Act through pure hatred of Ardern’s treachery. I know she betrayed us renters but NACT hate us even more. Holding nose with a clamp, voting Labour.
Don’t do it! Think of the children!
No comment. I am thinking of the children. I’m thinking of the children who used to have an independent Commissioner for Children, and if any children.need one our murdered, battered, and fractured babies and kiddies do, but the Commissioner was dumped by Sepuloni, Davis, Ardern, Hipkins and co to protect the agency meant to protect the children, and theoretically replaced by diversity backroom pen pushers from the department peddling non scientific gender ID ideology through the school system, because we live in an increasingly mad social community. That’s what I am thinking.
But that presupposes NZF will drop below the threshold. Not going to happen.
The rest maybe but NZF will be 5% at least.
Rather strange, your previous accusations against middle class Marxists? Given him beside you.
A grand man. The Social-Democratic Federation, Britain’s first socialist organization, was equally serious about both parts of their title. Labour never really. In Britain or here.
The socialist part, unfortunately.
The Right think they can carry on as normal and achieve things. A guy who isn’t willing to admit dinosaurs — suffer my brain.
It’s tribal at this point. Between rationalists and the rationalizing. Even the foul incrementalist Hipkins -led Labour can be re-elected. If someone on the main stage can shout for reality even a little bit. James whatshisname doesn’t seem up to it.
If the Left is re-elected then it has to be ABH.
All forgetting Ilam. Ilam will decide the makeup of the government.
As someone watching the polls, then comparing them to the election results, over the past 50 years, I can confirm that Labour consistently does better by 2 to 4%, and the Greens do better by 3 to 5%. Put those numbers against current polling and the left should be able to form a government, but it will be one that is under a lot more pressure from the real left. The second thing to remember is that 4 out of the 6 polls are right wing polls, one is fairly neutral and the last is the most neutral, but none are left apart from internal polling. As at today early voting has been open for a week, so it’s the swing vote and lazy vote that’s yet to come.
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