Jesus wept!
What a week!
Chippy gets Covid.
Labour Party MP Angela Roberts was attacked at a political event.
Hana Maipi-Clarke’ had her home targeted in a politically motivated attack while the right claimed it was a lie.
ACT are promising to bring back submachine guns.
Winston is threatening Jack Tame for asking him hard questions.
National will stop building State Houses.
ACT want to rob you of January 2nd stat holiday.
National can not fund their foreign buyers tax but will allow foreign speculators to price the next generation out of home ownership.
NZ First just dumped a candidate who compared Covid vaccinations to Nuremberg trials.
National will give Landlords the power to throw tenants out without notice.
NZ First will misuse the Terrorism Suppression Act to designate domestic groups for paramilitary policing.
National will start riots and bloodshed at Funerals attempting to take Gang Patches from funerals.
National will rob 2 year olds, mutilate public transport and literally steal from climate change funds to give Landlord’s a $250 per fortnight tax cut!
ACT will start a race war with their racist referendum.
National and ACT will steal 2 years of our pension from Gen X.
Winston claims Māori aren’t indigenous.
ACT want to spark domestic meth cooking so they can pimp for big Pharma.
National will give bosses the right to sack after 90 days.
National, ACT and NZ First will all punish beneficiaries.
National, ACT and NZ First have used Māori as a punching bag.
National, ACT and NZ First will slash the public services while claiming they aren’t slashing public services.
National, ACT and NZ First will abandon all climate change legislation and allow the planet to burn.
National, ACT and NZ First are taking millions in donations from the mega rich.
All that in one week.
This isn’t an election, it’s a grudge fuck!
LABOUR: 32%
Chippy has Covid, normally that would be it but his incredible performance in the second debate has given Labour a shot in the arm and internal polling is showing they are bouncing back.
They have even promised to give Palestine a new ambassadorship!
I love how progressive Labour promises to be only when they are threatened by total political oblivion!
Get better soon Chippy! We need you. Watching Kelvin and Carmel host the event Chippy couldn’t be at highlighted why those two shouldn’t be allowed to host anything ever again.
Because of all this toxic self interested right wing policy that literally takes from the poor and gives to the rich while building a Police State, I think honest Kiwis will reject malice and spite as political values and will stay loyal to Chippy even while he has Covid.
NATIONAL: 35%
During the Paddy Gower debate, Luxon proudly tells the nation that he will send 1500 heavily armed Police officers into Gang tangi to rip from their bodies gang patches.
This potato headed fuckwit will send 1500 heavily armed police in Gang Tangi’s to rip their patches off them?
What the fuck has happened to this country for this fucking moron to be the champion of the Opposition?
Can you all see the pointless violence and sudden ramping up of the Police State that Luxon represents?
His bullshit foreign buyers tax policy is a joke that will never raise the money he claims while slashing public services.
He will crack down on beneficiaries because bashing beneficiaries is what right wing arseholes love.
This muppet, if elected will immediately start a war on gangs that will only create more havoc and bloodshed.
ACT: 11% + 2 Electorates
BREAKING BAD ACT have decided to back the local meth production industry by bewilderingly wanting the banned meth pre-curser Pseudoephedrine back on the shelves!!!
On top of this, another ‘New World Order’ Conspiracy candidate was outed by the media and David proudly announced if ACT are elected, they will take your January 2nd stat holiday off you.
ACTs extremism is now spooking voters and that’s why they have been slipping in the polls.
What was funny a couple of months ago is now seriously dangerous.
GREENS: 15% + 2 electorates
I have been very harsh on the Greens this term, but I have zero interest in relitigating those criticisms because right now, the Greens are facing their greatest possible electorate win next month and it has enormous impacts on the future of the Political Left in NZ.
Four amazing things are happening all at the same time for the Greens.
1 – The Greens have been relentlessly focused and disciplined in terms of messaging. They have put the Wealth Tax idea front and centre of the debate by demanding a fundamental redesign of the economic structure to tap new revenue streams created from untaxed wealth accumulation. We can’t fund better social services and infrastructure if we don’t have the taxation and we should only get that taxation from those sectors and individuals who are using their market position to milk us. The identity politics has taken a backseat to the pragmatic issues people struggling want answers to, and this has helped enormously!
2 – Labour’s incremental fecklessness and cautious nothingness has seen a wholesale landslide of Labour Left walking over to the Greens, I mean after that bullshit Captain’s Call on the Wealth Tax, why bother voting Labour? GST off my banana don’t mean jack shit.
3 – The re-emergence of Marama and the brilliance of Chloe in the debates is generating the kind of buzz that activists need to be enthused by to turn up.
4 – Demographics have changed and there are more Gen X and Millennials voting than Boomers and their fears and hopes and aspirations are not being catered to by ACT, National, NZ First or Labour.
When the Greens were part of Alliance they won 18% of the vote, but strip the Alliance away, the highest result the Greens have ever had was 11.1 in 2011.
I believe the conditions are rip[e for a 15% Green Party win plus two electorates.
The weakness of Labour has given the Greens a platform to shine on and they have.
The importance of strong bottom lines in any Labour/Green/MP supply and confidence arrangement will be as important as the level of protest the Greens decide to use against National and ACT’s far right romper stomper campaign from Opposition.
Either way the Greens are set to record an historic win and permanently reshape the political landscape either from inside or outside Government after October.
Māori Party – 5% + 3 electorates
The disgusting manner in which Hana Maipi-Clarke’s home was targeted is an obscenity. The youngest candidate had her place broken into numerous times in a politically motivated attack, an attack Right Wing Trolls are claiming is a false flag event with crisis actors.
The lengths people will go to not believe here is a thing to behold.
The manner in which Māori gave been a political punching bag this election on top of the race baiting by National, ACT and NZ First will cause a backlash within Māoridom that will surprise on Election night.
NZF – 4.8%
Winston wants to designate every gang member a domestic terrorist for Christ’s sake, he’s lost another Candidate who was claiming those supporting the vaccine should face Nuremberg trials and he just had a train wreck TVNZ interview where he ended up threatening Jack Tame’s job!
If Winston is the answer, the question must be ‘What crooked old fox could make National and ACT even more toxic’.
Sub 5% Feral Antivax God Squad vote – NOTHING!
What’s been most interesting about the Racist Dumb Christians Qanon anti vaxx feral vote is that it is clearly out there, but what is fascinating is that it is cult leader focused.
NZ Loyal, Democracy NZ, Freedom NZ, New Conservatives – each are getting 1% traction but its limited to the personal messiah leading each movement.
Liz Gun, Matt King, Bishop Brian, Winston – each group of Racist Dumb Christians Qanon anti vaxx ferals are connected via the internet to their favourite messiah via a personal bond with the cult leader, so while they all have the same policies, it’s the cult of personality in the lonely lives of believers that shapes the bond.
Thank Christ all the leaders are toxic narcissist and refuse to work together.
How the Racist Dumb Christians Qanon anti vaxx ferals find a place post election in NZ culture is difficult to see and without any real clear movement, the fear is they will collapse into small cell groups and radicalise even further.
We had an option of deescalating this when the first version of the Dumb Lives Matter movement washed up on Parliament Lawns 2 years ago, but we refused to do that and it has metastasised into a treacle of dark hate the ramifications of which are still not calculated.
SPECIALS:
I don’t think we will know on election night who the Government will be and it could all come down to the specials 2 weeks after the election. That means NZ First must hit 5.2 on election night or get dragged under the threshold when the Specials get counted as the Specials tend to favour Greens, Labour and Māori Party.
The Economy
Interest rates will be going up before Christmas, food inflation prices will remain sky-high and the cost of living crisis will get more intense as geopolitical shockwaves impact oil and food prices.
Union Busting:
National and ACT will dump the Fair Pay Agreements and give Bosses the right to fire before 90 days.
This is a direct assault on the Union Movement and empowers the low wage economy National donors have become addicted to.
Expect migrant worker exploitation to explode throw the roof.
Class War on Renters:
Real Estate Pimps have donated millions to National and in return National have lifted the Foreign Buyers Ban and will give landlords the right to kick tenants out with no notice. National and ACT will also role back Tenants rights while reopening Landlord tax loop holes.
There is a class war on renters but we don’t have the political vocabulary to articulate it.
Speculators Paradise:
By opening NZ up to foreign speculators while reopening landlord tax loops holes, National and ACT are opening NZ up for sale to their overseas wealthy mates.
Environmental Bonfire of the Vanities:
National and ACT will reverse oil and gas bans and steam full ahead at the Climate Change Iceberg. They will allow Agriculture another 5 years of doing nothing (that will be a total of 25 years of doing nothing) while slashing public transport and climate change budgets.
They will greenwash everything and lie about the rest.
The planet will burn and National and ACT will pour petrol on it.
Amputation of the State:
National and ACT have promised 14 000 job cuts and the amputation of 5 ministries and the Human Rights Commission. They will slash and burn the State and hack away at it with the ideological fervour of self-flagellating puritans.
Race War:
As a bottom line, ACT are demanding a referendum to renegotiate the Treaty with Māori and then just foist that upon Māoridom!
What in our 184 year history makes anyone believe that Māori will just accept that?
This referendum will generate an enormous social backlash and the hikoi to Wellington will become our largest protest march. Parliament Lawns will be Occupied, the real possibility of civil disobedience will erupt and all because ACT want to play race baiting games unleashing the worst angels of our nature.
Gun Fetishist Fantasies:
The Gun lobby have deep control over ACT now and the killing off of the Gun Registry (an act the Police Association says is crazy, which really is saying something coming from the Police Association), and allowing the sociopaths submachine gun of choice back on the streets is truly the foreplay of a charmless man.
Private Prison Empire and Prison Riot:
National are promising to throw State Tenants onto the street while ACT promise a billion dollars to build more prisons!
You know the ‘Private prison’ solution is around the corner.
Our current publicly funded prisons are close to snapping point and the incompetence of technology and staffing of the home monitoring system that can be tricked by fucking tin foil are all red flags that the system can’t manage the prison popualtyioin they have, let alone pouring thousands more into it!
The recipe for an enormous prison riot is building.
PREDICTION
This is the most important election of a generation where the Right, unconstrained by decency and enabled by the infected hate of petty bigotry, will vandalise the Egalitarian State in a manner beneath the mana of our country and I think we are a better people than National, ACT and NZ First believe we are.
You must vote as if your life depended on it my fellow citizens, because under the Alliance of Arseholes, it really will be!
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I think you’re about spot on with your %s Martyn – except for over rating Act. From what I gather on the street, most young people treat Act as something of a joke. So 9% tops, and only 1 (gifted) electorate.
So it’s all on lefties – get out there door knocking/delivering pamphlets!
We’re got to keep these right wing arseholes out of government!
Nat 34.
Labour 29.
Green 12.
Act 11.
NZF 9.
TPM 4.
TOP 1
I think you are right on target .I would prefer a few less for NZF but he is getting g so much exposure you may be right .The I.poetant fact is getting Labour out is important for the good of the country and its people
NZF will get 6 at most, but the rest of this doesn’t seeem too far off
Labour – 22%
Green – 11%
ACT – 10%
NZF – 11%
TPM – 1%
National – 40%
Even though National always over polls you have them at 40. What is that based on, their tax policy?
National are Squeaky Clean – Nope, talking to people…heaps of National support, bugger all Government supporters.
The election starts today, results in 2 weeks.
National 37
Act 9
NZ First 7
Labour 22
Greens 17
Maori 2
Wasted 6
National/Act with NZF on confidence and supply
Jeez, be great if Martyn is right about NZF 4.8%!
It is all still to play for at this stage–turnout is king.
Acting PM Carmel has the perfect chance for a “Cap’n’s Call” hammer blow–Wealth Tax, Basic Income & free Dental now! and win the election. Soz, Chippy was waylaid…
God I wish… If NZF fall below 5 and there’s about a 3 point swing from the Nats to Labour then the left can still win, would probably help as well if Raf wins Ilam and coat tails an extra 1 or 2 MPs in
If the left vote, the left win!
Tragically, if the Left leadership sells out, the Left typically don’t vote.
That is what we are currently witnessing happening before our very eyes.
Chippy has COVID but it’s Winston Peters that has mutated into a viral strain that the country could well do without. He conveniently forgets that he was part of the government for three of the last six years and while, for some, it’s all about Jack Tame daring to ask questions he looked just as much a consummate bullshit artist with Rebecca Wright. NatAct might be completely disingenuous with their “we care for all” messages but they don’t scream corrupt media when they can’t answer a question ( to be fair it’s probably because they actually have a policy of some description).
Metservice has orange background to the black words Voting Open at the bottom of each panel for the day’s forecast. I feel like adding the words ‘Don’t let the wind blow through your mind and blow your thoughts away’.
It seems a long time for voting, long enough for it to be forgotten in favour of round-to-it. What about starting on a Friday with the weekend following and then the full week finishing on late Saturday as of now? That would give extra time for all people, going to vote on the way from church would extend the religious experience! It is something we should do religiously after all.
Tony Vietch you were a highly paid news reader dependent on oil companies sponsoring the sports news. So I don’t know why u are so anti aspiration.
Wrong Tony Veitch – I had my name long before that plonker besmirched it!
And I am aspirational – I want a left wing government that cares for all NZers, not just the landlords, the rich and the donors!
Voting for a coalition of chaos like Natz, Act and NZF is to be socially regressive!
Fantastic Article again Martyn, if the Left lose this Election it won’t be because of you, as you have gone out of your way to highlight how horrendous this Country will be under the Alliance of Arseholes, the Coalition of C**ts & Neoliberal Deathcult Govt of Luxon, Seymour & Peters, what a terrifying thought? Thanks for all your dedication & hard work to try & get fair minded Kiwis to WAKE THE FUCK UP & not vote these right wing bastards into power? You have excelled in showing how dangerous the National Party will be for this Nation if these Lunatics get elected? I personally believe that if National & Act get into power, NZ will be utterly destroyed as a Nation State, we’ll be the Ukraine of the South Pacific, a broken, failed State run by Elites & Racist Natzi fascists, this Country won’t survive a National/Act Party Govt! And if you look at the Worldwide situation, Western Neoliberal Capitalism & it’s debt based model is dying, Neoliberalism is a failed Economic theory & with the arrival of BRICS, a new Multipolar World & Financial system no longer dominated by the USD is emerging, the West is going down & NZ as a Anglo Saxon Nation with it unless we embrace Collectivism & Socialism & reject Right wing Neoliberalism & stop letting these Rich pricks like Luxon & the Natzi’s, ruin our lives & destroy our Future? This is one of the most important Elections ever so get out there & vote for the Left Kiwis because the right wing alternative is frightening, believe me!
National: 35%
Labour: 28%
Green: 15% + 3 Electorates
ACT: 10% + 2 Electorates
TPM: 2.5% + 4 Electorates
NZF: 4.8%
TOP: 2% + 1 Electorate
Greens 15%, TPM overhang and TOP Ilam coat tail or bust!
If the left vote, the left win!
The rise of the Right in New Zealand is not phenomenon unique to this country. To a greater or lesser extent what is happening here, is happening in most other countries.
The Economy….
Union Busting….
Class War on Renters….
Speculators Paradise….
Environmental Bonfire of the Vanities….
Amputation of the State….
Race War….
Gun Fetishist Fantasies….
Private Prison Empire and Prison Riot….
All the evils the under the disastrous sub-headings a Right Wing administration will deliver, Martyn has forgotten one.
War will exacerbate all the evils on Martyn’s list.
And make no mistake, war is coming.
War is how competing market economies inevitably come to deal with depressions, slumps, recession, economic contraction, whatever you want to call the periodic economic collapses of varying severity common to market economies.
When you roll all the disastrous outcomes of fall throated unregulated market capitalism contained in each of Martyn’s sub-headings – war is the outcome. To use Martyn’s term, the military is the part of the state that is never “amputated” because war is the inevitable result of economic crisis and global economic rivalry.
Politics is concentrated economics, War is concentrated politics
As the Russian market economy turned to war to avoid collapse, exiled and jailed Russian climate activists have had to re-prioritise their climate activism to antiwar activism,
The calculation they have made is this; “If we can’t stop killing each other, how can we stop killing the planet?”
Only the Left can offer an alternative vision to this compounding national and global disaster.
The Labour Party’s failure stems from the fact that after agreeing many decades ago to become a reliable manager of capitalism, the Labour Party have lost their Left alternative vision for the economy and country.
P.S. The only New Zealand political party to realise the danger and propose a Left alternative vision to war, is TPM.
Maori or Pakeha Tau Iwi or born here, give Te Pāti Māori your Left list vote
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