GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan – Game theorist offers a new interpretation of Ukraine’s strategy. And; Azerbaijan and Armenia conflict make Russia’s problems worse!

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Last week, a different perspective on Ukraine’s strategy emerged from the military blogger community.  William Spaniel, expert in Game Theory, writer and blogger on the Ukraine War proposed an analysis of Ukraine’s strategy that is very different from most conventional military analysis.  An assessment that may explain Ukraine’s decisions in the land campaign and why it continues to concentrate force in Bakhumut as well as on trying to break the Crimean Land Bridge. Rather than concentrating on cutting the road and rail networks that run along the Sea of Azov’s coast linking Crimea with Russia. Spaniel’s analysis may or may not be correct but it is compelling and worth investigating.  In a You Tube post titled, Ukraine’s Alternate Win Condition: Inside the Gamble on the War of Attrition (See this link ) Spaniel outlines his analysis and seeks to answer this question – Why is Ukraine dispersing its ground forces across the frontline, rather than concentrating on applying maximum force to achieve its objective; a thrust to the Sea of Azov cutting the Crimean Land Bridge?  

Currently, Ukraine has its land forces deployed on three keys axes of advance and is making slow progress on all three. Ukraine continues operations on the three axes shown as blue arrows, on the map below:

  1. An axis that started at Orikhiv and that is pushing south towards Tokmak and Melitopol.
  2. An operation flattening the Velyka Novosilka salient, that in recent weeks has been less active, Ukraine’s effort switching to Axes A and C.
  3. Advancing on Bakhmut.

Progress is slow and conventional military wisdom is that by not concentrating on a single axis Ukraine is dissipating its potential.  We know that General Mark Milley, Chairman of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Tony Radakin, Britain’s Chief of Defence Force and General Chris Cavoli NATO Supreme Allied Commander all counselled Ukraine to commit their reserve forces to one axis of attack, to maximise concentration of force and punch through Russia’s lines of defence.   We also know that Ukraine is currently fighting the opposite way, using small forces on a wide frontage to engage the Russians heavily supported by artillery; and that although they are not taking ground, they are certainly attriting the Russians.  

So, the next question is – Why? Generally, commentators and analysts propose two theories:

  • That Ukraine’s Soviet trained senior officers are uncomfortable with fighting using NATO doctrine. That instead they are familiar with and understand attritional tactics and are more comfortable fighting this way; or
  • That Ukrainians are simply not as competent as they are perceived to be and their commanders are struggling to use modern weapons and tactics effectively. 

Spaniel recently proposed a third option, one based on a mathematical analysis of the situation. His thesis is that Ukraine may have assessed Putin is politically unable to launch a new mass mobilisation.  If this is correct, then a key factor in strategic planning is; that the troops Putin currently has in Ukraine are all the soldiers he is going to get.  That although theoretically Russia has an enormous pool of manpower, Putin does not have the political capital to be able to mobilise it.  So, attrition is a very sensible strategy because if the pool of Russian manpower is limited it is much safer not to commit to risky offensive manoeuvres and instead to concentrate on causing attrition.  Allowing artillery and bombs to do the work saving Ukrainian soldiers’ lives and husbanding equipment.   

If Spaniel is correct then the battle for Bakhmut can be interpreted differently, some commentators see the battle as a triumph of politics over military sense, some as an operation to fix Russia’s best soldiers in place and keep them away from the southern front.  However, in both these scenarios the opportunity cost of keeping formidable Ukrainian units like 80th Air Assault Brigade, 5th Assault Brigade, the Lyut Brigade, 95th Air Assault Brigade and the recently re-formed Azov Battalion is significant.  

However, if Ukraine’s strategy is attrition, then this battle makes good sense and is achieving its results. This week Klischivka and Adrivka fell to Ukrainian forces who now dominate the north-south ridgeline overlooking Bakhmut.  This position allows Ukrainian soldiers to direct artillery fire into the city and onto the roads highlighted in yellow on the map below, the T0513 and T0504. These roads are the main supply routes into the city are within range of Ukrainian artillery located near Chasiv Yar, represented by the shaded semi-circle. The Ukrainians on the high-ground and are well-supported logistically and with artillery fire from nearby Chasiv Yar, this village providing a well-fortified firm base for their operations.  

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Essentially, Ukraine is in a good position to attrit the Russian defenders showering them with artillery and cutting their supply lines.  And; the defenders of Bakhmut are not any ordinary Russian soldiers, they are elite paratroopers.  The loss of these troops has significant impacts on Russian plans the Institute for the Study of War assessing on 17 September that “Ukraine’s continued counteroffensive actions in Bakhmut since June 2023 have fixed elements of two of Russia’s four VDV divisions and three of the VDV’s four separate brigades, dramatically reducing the VDV’s ability to redeploy more forces laterally to reinforce the southern front.” Ukraine’s plan is depriving Russia of what it needs most; effective infantry. 

And; high-quality infantry is a resource Russia appears to be lacking in the south as fighting on the Orikhiv Axis intensifies. The map below shows last week’s activity, Ukraine pushing into Novoproivka and Verbove.  The Russian concentration of elite airborne forces north of Verbove launched counter attacks against the Ukrainian salient’s east flank but these attacks are currently being held. In turn, this force is at risk if Ukraine take Verbove; and may be forced to withdraw as their southern flank is compromised.  It has been reported the Ukraine is bringing tanks and armoured vehicles through the now compromised Russian obstacle belts and trench lines near Verbove, preparing for the next phase of their operation.

Although the Orikhiv salient has not suddenly turned into a penetration that can be exploited we can see evidence that Ukraine’s attritional approach is reducing Russian capability.  Most commentators have noted an approximately 30% decrease in the number of daily Russian attacks along the frontline.  Russian artillery fire is reducing in volume and Ukrainian progress into the defences on the Orikihiv salient is speeding up.  In the face of this information Putin is still not calling for a general mobilisation, either he is confident or as Spaniel proposes; he can’t.

Further, Spaniel’s analysis potentially provides insight into Ukraine’s strategic battle, including its deep strikes into Crimea.   Last week, we discussed Ukraine’s evolving control of the Black Sea, predicting that this week there would be more attacks on Crimea. A prediction that was proven correct on 22 September, when the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet was destroyed and a cyber-attack crippled Russian computer systems.  

This attack is significant for several reasons, the first is that a fleet headquarters should be safe and very well-protected.  Sevastopol is a key harbour, the control centre of Russia’s naval and air forces in the Black Sea and is the capital of Crimea so hitting it demonstrates the hole that Ukraine has created in Russia’s air defence network. The second point relates to the severity of the strike, close analysis of the footage reveals that a large missile, most likely a Storm Shadow detonated deep inside the building. Often technically sophisticated missiles like Storm Shadow are designed to penetrate deep underground before detonation to destroy bunkers; and this appears to be the case with this attack. So, rather than doing superficial damage this attack is likely to have done considerable damage and killed key personnel.

Attacks like this may be an adjunct to the attrition strategy described by Spaniel, Ukraine using depth strikes like this not just to achieve military objectives; like degrading command and control or interdicting supply lines but also undermining the argument that the war is easily won. Perhaps, these strikes are not directed at the military but instead at influencing the Russian public, designed to undermine any argument that a larger mobilisation will easily win the war.  The strike will impact on Russian operations because key personnel will have been injured or killed, computer servers damaged, files lost and confidence reduced all contributing to less effective naval and air operations in the theatre.

Then, on 19 September Azerbaijan attacked Armenia.  The Nagorno-Karabakh War, is a conflict between two former Soviet Republics, Azerbaijan and Armenia that started in the late 1980s and involves a series of flare ups; most recently in 2020.  Although, these countries are far from Ukraine (See the map below) this war will have impacts on the war because of the location of these countries within Central Asia.  Azerbaijan and Armenia border key regional powers like Turkey and Iran so any conflict between them requires a response from Russia; or Russia risks losing influence or that other powers like Turkey or the United States will develop more influence in a region that is very important to Russia’s security.

Historically, Russia has positioned itself as a mediator in this conflict, although it has been criticised for being more supportive of Armenia than Azerbaijan. However, Russia’s most pressing concern is the potential for instability in Central Asia that this war could create. Russia inherited relationships with a range of Central Asia nations that were once Soviet Republics, including Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan; not all of which have excellent relationships with Russia. 

  A war in this area and the associated political instability may provide an opportunity for American or Turkish influence to grow in the region. America has a large and well-connected Armenian community and while publicly stating it supports Azerbaijan’s claims historically sat on the fence.  Now, with the war in Ukraine the United States and its allies have more incentive to invest in this conflict.  If the war escalates, it will provide options for Turkey and the United States to put more pressure on Russia as both sides seek support in the conflict.  Additionally, if the United States increases its diplomatic and military presence in the region other Central Asian nations may start to develop closer relationships with it.  Creating a strategic problem for Russia, with almost all their military power committed in Ukraine, especially their elite airborne forces, Russia will struggle to intervene in this conflict.  

In summary, last week produced a fresh interpretation of Ukrainian strategy. One that is worth considering, why would Ukraine risk large numbers of lives and lots of equipment in offensive manoeuvre if there is a good chance that a new mobilisation is politically impossible for Putin. It could make more sense to slowly but surely attrit Russia’s forces aiming for their complete collapse.  Hence, Ukraine’s deep strikes starving the frontline; and that demonstrate to the Russian public that regardless of what Putin tells them the war is not going to end easily. Regular drone strikes in Moscow and Crimea and the destruction of the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet may be relatively unimportant to the land campaign but they send a message to Russia’s citizens.  A message that says: This war is not going well and even another mobilisation will not change the situation, even if you commit another million men to it!  

Meanwhile, in Central Asia a long-running territorial dispute between two small and relatively unknown countries creates a new and dangerous dynamic for Russia. Diplomatic or military intervention in the Azerbaijan and Armenia conflict is required; or Russia risks greater Turkish or United States intervention in the region.  But, with 80-90% of Russian combat power now deployed against Ukraine and rapidly being depleted how can Russia respond?  It was another tough week for Russia and next week looks like it may get worse! 

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer and TDBs military blogger

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115 COMMENTS

  1. Good grief, such a detailed US Imperiailst newsletter from Ben.

    I do not support Putin, Russia has been a capitalist society since the early 1990s, and after Lenin’s death the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics became a degenerate workers state as Trotskyites described it.

    This is a war involving imperialist states which needs to be settled by negotiation.

    • No negotiation because Putin like Trump will not honour any deal and once strong enough Russia will attack again. Russians are filth, always have been and always will be absolute scum filth people. Get in your fat fucking head Russian is the only imperialist state here not the West. You want to live in a communist utopia go to Cuba or North Korea.
      You commies like saying the West will fight to the last Ukrainian but what about the last Russian?

  2. I don’t think Putin will have any worries about mobilisation .The more Ukraine attacks Russia itself, the more recruiting becomes easier.And he has the same recourse to propaganda as any leader.Look how Key was able to increase the powers of our security agencies by telling an outright lie re the imminent danger of jihadis in NZ .Turned out later there were never any jihadis.Aus. had a few jihadi brides leaving for ISIS in Syria, nothing to do with us .That spectacular lie was never punished or brought to account .And the powers of the GCSB were increased for all time.

    • He can recruit as many people as he wants but he cant even supply the troops he already has with modern rifle, helmet and bullet proof vest. New recruits will have mosin nagants and steel helmets

    • Rubbish F. Putin is afraid of mobilisation as the Russian presidential elections are very close and it will not be a good look particularly in Moscow and Petersburg. Why did he delay the first mobilisation so long? Fear. Young Russians don’t want to sacrifice themselves for some megalomaniac!
      You have no idea Francesca.

  3. The Wests appetite to continue support for Ukraine is waning.
    When the full blast of Winter hits and the shortages of grain and diesel impact on Europe ,its game over.

  4. Ok, so the only reasonable way to interpret the mountain of Ukrainian dead as them “winning” is believing there are less mobilisable soldiers in Russia than there are warm bodies in Ukraine. Russia had 270K walk ups in the last 6 months alone.
    Russians know whose money, weapons and intelligence and strategies are prolonging this conflict. They know who this war is with and why. Motivation is not lacking.

    I do sense Ben’s enthusiasm waning, however. With all the showy Nato stone throwing at Sevastapol, I think the “good guys” are about to call “Victory!” and go home.

  5. The momentum in Ukraine’s favour has continued and accelerated in the last week. Look back at a map of occupied territory held by the Russian’s soon after the start of the war and compare it with now. Russia have had to concede over half of the territory they considered captured and concede more daily at the moment. Russia having to remove their naval strike force from Sevastapol is a big deal and the world was shocked at how weakly such an important asset was protected. Currently with the first Serovikin lines crossed and Verbove and Novoprokopivka being entered in Zaporhizia Russia are struggling. The same goes for the Bakhmut area where the Ukrainians have fire control and continue to cause heavy attrition of Russian troops and equipment. The Russian’s are now just re-acting and despite being the invaders are not controlling the fate of this war any more.

    Blazer re the Wests support waning for Ukraine. That sounds like wishful thinking on your part because both the USA and the Brits reiterated in the last few days that they are there for the long haul. Further weapons support was announced from the USA and on top of that a small supply of ATACMS was promised. It is Russia struggling with diesel supply and it has hit already pre winter. Russia is seriously short of some types of military equipment too, not just certain grades of fuel. USA and Brits offer much more clout in the way of support than North Korea and Iran. Russia’s support can hardly wane as it has always been near rock bottom! Russia are being seriously weakened by this war and are unlikely to be saved by a mobilisation. They have revealed that they cannot conquer Ukraine militarily. The best Russia can hope for is a negotiated peace deal where they retain part of the currently occupied territory or a demilitarised zone as a buffer from the rest of Ukraine which will eventually become part of NATO.

    • Russia is not suffering from a diesel supply shortage,but the West soon will be.Lack of refining capacity a factor.
      NZ ‘s dumbarse move of closing down Marsden Pt will come back to bite…big time.
      Hawkish Anglo/American politicians support may appear strong,but the people that elected them are not so….content.

        • Refining NZ at Marsden Pt was a creation of Rogernomics in the mid 80s. A bent set up which allowed the international oil companies to import, operate transfer pricing to their parent companies, and set local predatory retail pricing!

          The kick in the arse is the remaining pollution nearby.

    • Trev “Russia having to remove their naval strike force from Sevastapol is a big deal and the world was shocked at how weakly such an important asset was protected.” Western media sources should be taken cautiously with a pinch of salt as they do tell lies. Remember the Iraq war? or Afghanistan invasion? These attacks are pin-pricks and haven’t dented the Russian SMO., but dreams and opinions are free!

      • I’m afraid Trev is bushy tailed and optimistic so believes anything. The rockets when launched in sufficient numbers and with clever flights paths plotted by NATO aircraft over neutral water will get through any air defense. Russia could but won’t shoot down NATO spy aircraft. Instead they have withdrawn their fleet out of range, watched for the next aircraft which indicates a coordinated attack, awaited the launch of enemy aircraft and sent a counter missile strike. Cat and mouse. Neither side are stupid.

          • That’s what he said.
            It wouldn’t be WW3, but Russia will choose the right time for them to respond proportionately. They have already been quite clear that they view the UK and US as at war with them by their action, so it will be perfectly justifiable. And up to “Nato” if they feel lucky.

              • What part? That Russia do’t consider US&UK at war with them by proxy, by their own words and actions? They’ve said that explicitly.

                That Russia don’t act on their own timeline? They’ve resisted provocations all century, and in Syria showed their adeptness at responding to spectacles perpetrated on their forces by quietly destroying terrorist command centers that happen to be full of Israeli and Nato dead.

                But yeah, you keep living in black and white, when the US were the “good guys” and Jerry was on the run.

      • Pinpricks? Hardly Stephen. You can keep ignoring the obvious but Ukraine has mounted a surgical strike on the Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol. The Storm Shadow missiles made a real mess of the building. My guess is that the Russian navy was over confident and held the meeting despite the dangers, contrary to NJ’s wishful thinking.

  6. This is the continuation of 1000 years of Turks taking land from others from Caucasus to Anatolia. For a 1000 years Greeks, Armenians, Persians and other lost land to Turkish tribes and it has been a one way street!

    If you even knew the history of the past 200 years for Armenians, you would never surrender their land to anyone for any perceived economic or military advantage sometime in the future, because when you relinquish your claim on your people’s land, you’ve accepted defeat and shown the enemy you won’t fight for your historical land of 3000 years!

    That only sends the message that you don’t care enough for your people and your land and they will come for more land grabs and they’ll more likely succeed!!

    Traditionally Armenian leaders sided with the most powerful invader that came along as a way of preserving their autonomy, but Pashinian is trying to tie his boat to a sinking titanic of the EU and NATO and they’re not anywhere near him!! He bucks Russia a brotherly nation with the same religion and Iran a 3000 year neighbor with good recent historical relations to rely on the west???

    Has he not learned from the Kurds? Georgians? Ukrainians in six months when the Americans pack up and move to Taiwan?? Do they think they’ll even make it to American news to be even cared about?

    Do they want to experience being used as cannon fodder like Ukrainians?
    Where’s the appeal in that??

    Russia has shown its maturity calling for a peaceful resolution unlike Turkey & NATO who will stoke conflict to target Russia through the Caucasus. Putin not dumb!!

    • Some of us know the last 6000 years of history and how it ends and Putin is on the losing side, so is the US but their fall will take a bit longer

    • As many as 26 top ranking naval officers were taken out by Ukrainian Storm Shadow missiles in Sevastopol.
      I can’t believe the RT aligned British reporter who claimed that the missiles were being intercepted by SAMs. He completely ignored the massive direct hit on the admiralty building. Reminds me of Lord Haw Haw!

  7. Blazer I agree with you re the Marsden Point closure but not the other points. Her is a Reuters piece from 22 Sept. It appears that the Russian export ban is primarily to boost domestic supply which has been struggling to keep up rather than a move to hurt the West which is not dependent on Russian diesel anyway.

    … Russia in recent months has suffered shortages of gasoline and diesel. Wholesale fuel prices have spiked, although retail prices are capped to try to curb them in line with official inflation.

    The crunch has been especially painful in some parts of Russia’s southern breadbasket, where fuel is crucial for gathering the harvest. A serious crisis could be awkward for the Kremlin as a presidential election looms in March.

    Traders say the fuel market has been hit by factors including maintenance at oil refineries, bottlenecks on railways and the weakness of the rouble, which incentivises fuel exports …

  8. My sense of the conflict coincides with William Spaniel’s mathematical analysis.

    This is an asymmetrical war in one key area: Zelenski is accountable for the welfare of his troops whereas Putin, just like all Russian leaders in history, will happily sacrifice half a million men on the altar of his own ego. So, it makes no sense for Ukraine to engage in a slugging match.

    At the beginning of the Ukraine counter offensive this summer Ukraine tried NATO tactics and got a bloody nose because they don’t have what NATO has in terms of equipment: Mainly air superiority. So, lacking fast jets, they’ve innovated and what they’re doing is the right thing: Create kill-zone cauldrons into which the Russians send their ‘meat waves’ until they run out men, material & morale. All while blinding the enemy’s air defence capability.

    The best reference for their approach is Sun Tzu: “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.” So, Ukraine will only strike ‘en masse’ when the Russian morale is broken, and their artillery is unable to respond in strength.

  9. Some amazing commentary on an amazing blog! How the end result of this conflict will be explained by these people when they finally come in will be fascinating.
    D J S

    • Couldn’t agree more. Ecstatic exultation backed by hope alone, one new theory that is like the others more faith than logic.
      Unfortunately I don’t foresee any circumspect will be forthcoming when it all ends predictably badly. No questioning why they ate the official narrative. Just move right along to the next debacle cheering loudly.

  10. Interesting Ben what you say about attrition. It may well be the case and there will also be a real desire to save every Ukrainian under occupation and to claim back every inch of land. We should never forget, strategies and tactics aside, war can be very, very personal.

    I was not at all surprised to see The Azers kicking off – when the cats away the mice will play.

    Putin has been supporting the Armenians for some time (as my displaced Azerbyjanian friend tells it) so no doubt, they are striking while the iron is hot. Putin has been stoking conflict across the ex soviet states for his own purposes for a few decades now so in some ways we may see a domino effect across some of these states if Azerb … manages to advance because Putin is no longer able to support the Armenians. We also dont know if the US have been in Az and is covertly encouraging them with this end in mind.

    Interesting times.

  11. Ukraine’s current strategy could be described as a full court press. By keeping the pressure on Russia across a broad front, it makes it harder to assign reserves and supplies where they are most needed. Combined with the deep strikes, Russia’s front lines are imperiled by loss of supply and local weaknesses from loss of manpower.
    They are pushing from their salient in the south however, and this is sometimes costly. I’d be surprised if Putin cannot mobilize more troops – what is there to stop him? But poorly trained and motivated soldiers, though a stop gap, fare poorly in encounters with more experienced forces.
    The decisive move may come soon – a drive to cut Zaporizhya, opening an Incheon-style new front in Crimea, or an eastern breakthrough like last year. Any one will do.

  12. Its looking quite positive for Ukraine they have not lose any territory to the Russia army since June 23. PMC Wagner and its Aids /hepatitis ridden prisoners did get the rubble of Bakhmut but they are goneburger now. Ukraine has recovered 50% of its occupied territories. I hope there will be a break through to the sea before winter. If not it will definitely be Spring.

  13. Pity the 70% of Ukrainians who voted for ‘peace deal’ Zelensky ,,,, in one of the deadliest broken electioneering promises ever.

    Tedheath and Andrews excited dreams of Russians being killed and defeated in this ‘counter-offensive’, are a nightmare of carnage, horror and grief taking place in Ukraine ,,,, with Ukrainians experiencing the bulk of the suffering ….

    “Russia on the other hand has been suffering the lowest KIA spread of the entire war thus far. The latest from MediaZona which meticulously tracks obituaries: https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F425aee98-8c62-4bbd-a50f-ee39cfb1d808_1238x865.png

    Ukraine’s momentum is in the accelerating amount being killed,,,,,”Almost nine out of every ten Ukrainian draftees who enlisted in the army a year ago have either been killed or injured in combat, Ukrainian media reported on Friday citing a senior conscription officer in the Poltava Region.

    Lt. Colonel Vitaly Berezhny, who is currently serving as the acting head of the territorial center for recruitment and social support, made this admission during a Poltava City Council meeting.

    Sounding the alarm, Berezhny told meeting participants that “out of the 100 individuals who joined the units last fall, only 10-20 of them remain, the rest are dead, wounded or disabled.” Going from this statistic, he declared that the military was in urgent need of reinforcements.” https://mronline.org/2023/09/22/ukraine-lost-around-85-of-its-initial-mobilized-force-field-general/

    Basicly Ukraine has squandered tens & tens of thousands to push about 8 km’s forward in a area about 8 km’s wide to reach the first tank ditches ,,, where they look to be in a kill zone.

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/0tWdBCNTeb7M

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/s8B6lNuxETNr/

    Non fighting Ukraine supporters are certainly not “casualty averse” for them…..

    A short while ago Andrew was getting all excited by the prospect of precision glide bombs killing Russians ,,,, but instead it has been the Russians fitting cheap wing/rudder kits onto old dumb bombs, of which they have thousands and thousands ,,,,, and dropping them in increasing numbers upon the poor Ukrainian ‘throw-away’ soldiers.

    Given the small contained area that the failed Ukraine has taken/produced ,,,, any attempts to build up forces large and powerful enough in it ,, to try and advance the next 8kms to the Second main line of defense ,,,,, will be blown to hell and vaporized by the endless supply of these cheap, lethal precision weapons that get delivered in 250kg, 500 kg and 1,500kg high explosive form.

    The real deal is it’s Western neocons/NATO/the Usa who see Ukrainians as bargain price disposable meat ,,,,,

    https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/bill-kristols-refreshingly-honest “They knew exactly what they were doing when they provoked this war, and they know exactly what they’re doing by keeping it going.

    And they’re loving every minute of it.” https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/bill-kristols-refreshingly-honest

  14. Pity the 70% of Ukrainians who voted for ‘peace deal’ Zelensky ,,,, in one of the deadliest broken electioneering promises ever.

    Tedheath and Andrews excited dreams of Russians being killed and defeated in this ‘counter-offensive’, are a nightmare of carnage, horror and grief taking place in Ukraine ,,,, with Ukrainians experiencing the bulk of the suffering ….

    “Russia on the other hand has been suffering the lowest KIA spread of the entire war thus far. The latest from MediaZona which meticulously tracks obituaries: https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F425aee98-8c62-4bbd-a50f-ee39cfb1d808_1238x865.png

    Ukraine’s momentum is in the accelerating amount being killed in Action,,,,,”Almost nine out of every ten Ukrainian draftees who enlisted in the army a year ago have either been killed or injured in combat, Ukrainian media reported on Friday citing a senior conscription officer in the Poltava Region.

    Lt. Colonel Vitaly Berezhny, who is currently serving as the acting head of the territorial center for recruitment and social support, made this admission during a Poltava City Council meeting.

    Sounding the alarm, Berezhny told meeting participants that “out of the 100 individuals who joined the units last fall, only 10-20 of them remain, the rest are dead, wounded or disabled.” Going from this statistic, he declared that the military was in urgent need of reinforcements.” https://mronline.org/2023/09/22/ukraine-lost-around-85-of-its-initial-mobilized-force-field-general/

    Basically Ukraine has squandered tens & tens of thousands of their young mens lives in their suicide offensive that no NATO army would even attempt,,,to push about 8 km’s forward in a area about 8 km’s wide,,, to reach the FIRST tank ditches ,,, where they look to be in a kill zone……

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/0tWdBCNTeb7M

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/s8B6lNuxETNr/

    Non fighting Ukraine supporters are certainly not “casualty averse” for them…..

    A short while ago Andrew was getting all excited by the prospect of precision glide bombs killing Russians ,,,, but instead it has been the Russians fitting cheap wing/rudder kits onto old dumb bombs,,,, old bombs of which they have stockpiles totaling thousands and thousands ,,,,, and they are dropping/gliding these cheap powerful converted munitions in ever increasing numbers onto the poor Ukrainian ‘throw-away’ soldiers,,,,,, with minimal risk and losses to Russian pilots/aircraft while doing so.

    Given the small contained area that the failed Ukraine offensive has taken/produced ,,,, any attempts to build up force concentrations large and powerful enough within it ,, to try and advance the next 8 odd kms to the Second main line of defense ,,,,, will be blown up, wiped away and vaporized, by the near endless supply of these cheap, lethal precision weapons,,, that arrive without warning in 250kg, 500 kg and 1,500kg high explosive form.

    The real deal is that it’s Western neocons/NATO/the Usa who see Ukrainians as bargain price disposable meat ,,,,,

    “They knew exactly what they were doing when they provoked this war, and they know exactly what they’re doing by keeping it going.

    And they’re loving every minute of it.” https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/bill-kristols-refreshingly-honest

    Pity the 70% of Ukrainians who voted for ‘peace deal’ Zelensky ,,,, in one of the deadliest broken electioneering promises ever.

  15. Stephen Russian sources have now confirmed that the Sevastapol Naval HQ attacks killed Admiral Victor Sokolov. You really are stretching it to call these attacks a pin prick. Even some of the pro Russian bloggers are beside themselves recognising just how bad the situation in Crimea is. Until Russia restore air defence coverage in Crimea, and many think they can’t, they will be subjected to missile hits. This makes keeping the Black Sea fleet and some of the aircraft in Crimea untenable. Russia have already moved their remaining subs and various other ships out. Fleet command decapitated and base sites untenable because of inability to protect them = pin prick. Yeah Right!

  16. B Awakesky try checking out the Russian “dead and wounded” payout figures. Using the expenditure numbers Russian dead and wounded based on payouts are about 230000 dead and 750000 wounded. Of course some may say corrupt people have inflated the numbers and pocketed some of the payouts but such inadvertently released budget reconciliation numbers are more believable than Kremlin press releases.

  17. Genuine living SS man applauded by Canadian parliament for “fighting Russians”. For Hitler, with a unit famous for extermination of Jews, Poles, Ukrainians.

    So PhuD, Trev, Ted etc, you tell us that Zhelensky doesn’t associate with Nazis? He was there. Explain this abhorrent event.

  18. Regarding Sokolov. I acknowledge that there are now supposed pictures of him very recently released suggesting that he is still alive and was attending a meeting. I do not think that is the level of proof required. Why did such a release take so long and why are some “experts” saying the time stamp on the video has been edited? That may be old footage hastily repurposed. Yes it can be dangerous to believe Russian sources at times! A live interview with Sokolov is required to clarify the matter. Either way it is irrefutable that the missiles hit Black Sea Fleet targets. If I am later proved wrong about Solokov having been killed I’ll admit I was wrong here.

  19. Nick J. regarding Sokolov. it does appear that he is actually dead or severely injured because now the second video purporting to show he survived the missile strike has been time ID’d as from four days before the bombing not afterward. Thus another stuffed up cover-up from the Russians!

    • Trev, I got my info from those two most pro Russian sites(sarc) Al Jazeera and New York Times. Just have to wait and see.

      Meanwhile how do you feel about Ukraine’s SS mans standing ovation?

    • The theory was that Sokolov was either critically injured or dead as he was propped up on what seemed to be a hospital bed with a Russian Navy cross of St Andrew flag in the background. Perhaps it was a shroud?

    • It seems to me that Ovod has yet to become objective about the nasty things that happen in history. Especially Russian history. Russia became strong only when ruled with a rod of iron by very cruel, autocratic rulers.
      I agree with those who say that Stalin was the last of the great (and cruel, ruthless) Tsars. The Bolsheviks were certainly not nice.
      Why is anyone expecting angelic behaviour from Putin?
      His mission is the survival of what he sees as Russia.

      What I find disappointing is that some are naive enough to think that the US Industrial-Military Complex are now any less ruthless and cruel.

      Cling to naive beliefs in the superiority of whichever side you want to…

      • Who are those who said Stalin was the last of the Tsars? What a stupid notion, as you are for believing it.
        I guarantee Stephen Kotkin, Stalin’s most eminent biographer would never say such a thing!
        What the hell has the US got to do with it? Remind me when the US had bloodletting on the scale of the Great Terror or the Red Terror? Or the number of Gulags? Or the Cheka run by a bloodthirsty maniac called Felix Djerzhinski or its successor the NKVD run by Stalin’s henchmen Yagoda and Yezhov? Stalin was a sadistic thug as is Putin. Not much difference there.

    • They are indeed equivalent NJ. The fact is the FSB has never renounced their Bolshevism with regiments named after Djezhinski – a bloodthirsty Pole – and others of similar ilk.
      Yeltsin attempted to reform it but the fascists within, including Putin, resisted. Litvinenko who actually had a higher rank than Putin, was appalled and attempted to call Putin and co. out and guess what happened to him!

    • Just for you Pat, a map gazing exercise in Kiev.
      You can get to Babi Yar memorial in Kiev, by following avenues of Roman Shukhevych and Stepan Bandera–both cadre Nazi officers and genocidal murderers. These avenues were renamed by the Kiev regime. I hope you know what happened at Babi Yar.

      • “I hope you know what happened at Babi Yar.” Nick J

        And this justifies Russia slaughtering men, women and children in Ukraine today, How?

        • As per usual, you conflate, then deflect, to suit your failed argument. This is a NATO facist war of aggression -> against the peoples of Russia. Using UK/US/EU facists to engineer it as evidenced in the Parliamentary House of Canada. And press gangs in the streets of Kiev to man it. A long planned war by sinister CIA/MI6/EU propagandists, enabled by the disgusting nazis in our own midst. Russia are defending their every existence. Whatever you say; this is how it is.
          The slaughters of men women and children in the east is going on all right; but by western cluster and DU munitions supplied by the decrepit and corrupt western oligarchs – have you not followed the BIDEN/Ukranazi money laundering fiasco unravelling in DC?? . With their minion media (MOCKINGBIRDS) hiding every possible ‘justification’ from the populations to keep their awful war alive.

        • Incase you didn’t know Pat your Nazi mates in Ukraine have been shelling the Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine since 2014. How ironic that twice in a century Russians have had to eject Nazis.

  22. So here we have Zelensky – patsied by NATO into this wicked war; of whom it is said could have NO nazi in his ranks,
    because he is Jewish;
    now applauding the very UkraNAZI SS battalions who murdered 43,000 Jews at Babi Yar in 1942.
    In accord with the entire Canadian Parliament !

    Perhaps his Red Army Grandfather forgot to tell him who the enemy really are.

    • Where did you come from Remo? You are obviously another conspiracy theory fantasist or are the troll factories in Petersburg still running?

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