Ilam Poll – Winners and Losers


Party Vote:

National – 31%

Labour – 16%

Maori Party – 4%

NZ First – 3%

ACT – 9%

TOP – 4%

Greens – 12%

Unsure – 14%

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Hamish Campbell (National) – 33%

Sarah Pallett (Labour) – 15%

Mike Davidson (Greens) – 5%

Raf Manji (TOP) – 14%

Interestingly TOPs own polling released over the weekend is far closer with Hamish on 27.2%, Manji on 23.4% and Pallett  on 17.7%.

It was another sell out on the night with the venue packed. Last week we had 200 people at our Napier event and an online audience of over 20 000, this week we had over 200 packed into the venue and another 20 000+ online!

This debate was lively and engaged. The heckling towards Labour seemed to be for some a group therapy session and highlights how unstable some of our brothers and sisters have become lost in their own echo cambers.

It was a rare debate where each candidate was worthy of leading Ilam.



National – They are well on their way to winning despite a very weak candidate, which sums National up well this election.

Māori Party – They are recording 4%! They had .24% in 2020! There is something unique happening out there in with the Māori vote!

Greens – At 12%, the Green vote is holding up and they could be in for an big night on election night.Their secret is just be slightly less cowardly than Labour, and it’s working!


Labour – Despite being the current MP and despite Sarah having the highest name recognition, they are barely winning 16% of the Party vote. That is well down on what they are gaining in the nationwide polling and highlights how far many voters have switched off from Labour.

ACT – 9% is down on where they are nationally, poor showing for ACT.

TOP – Green voters and Labour voters have an important question in front of them, either stick with a candidate who will lose or back Raf Manji and send a very different message to Wellington.


TOP isn’t dead, but it’s chance of getting elected are now on life support, only the Green and Labour voters in Ilam have the power to change that.


Next weeks Party Debate in Auckland is looking like the best Debate for the entire season AND it will be live streamed on the NZ Herald as well!

Labour’s Willie Jackson vs National’s Paul Goldsmith vs Māori Party’s John Tamihere vs TOPs Raf Manji vs ACTs David Seymour.

Greens and NZ First TBC.


I recommend you book tickets now because this will sell out immediately.

Register your attendance here.

No one else is bringing you 7 live debate with 5 unique polls! Not TVNZ, not The Spinoff, not The Standard, Not ZB, not NZME, not Stuff!

We are.

And all without one red cent from NZ on Air!

To paraphrase the mighty Wu-Tang Clan, TWG Ain’t Nuthing ta F’ Wit.

It ain’t over till the Fat Blogger sings Comrades.

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  1. What’s causing the Maori Party surge is that many of us have realised that TPM is the only thing we have in NZ which has any skerrick of claim at all to be left-wing.

  2. The National candidate came over well.He is an educated businessman and we are going to need people like this in parliament together the country back on track .2 ticks Hamish .
    It was a good night and well run .

    • ” .He is an educated businessman and we are going to need people like this in parliament together the country back on track ”

      Wow you really have bought into the bullshit.

    • he came across like a donkey mate. Still, will be interesting to see him follow through on his pet project, whatever it was.

    • Why vote for a backbencher who’s 63 on the party list when a minor party leader with a unique policy vision that has done a ton of work for Christchurch as a former city counciler is literally right TF there…

  3. I thought the debate was good.

    My highlight was the analogy about labour trying to win votes by being less mean towards their dog than in the past. The GST off fruit and veggies as a policy is beyond stupid. Great way to excite voters…

    Rav,TOP, is onto something with his idea of growing the economy as a way to look after the next generations. TOP could be a good addition to parliament if they can explain the land tax approach. Unfortunately, most voters will see this as an envy tax by introducing an “inheritance tax” by stealth and redistributing this on behalf of older people who have worked hard most of their lives in order not to be a burden on society and give the next generation a kick start.

    Increasing top tax rates is something many business owners and wealthy entrepreneurs do not fear. These people hate wealth taxes as much as everyone, other than the woke and those stupid enough to believe in a sustainable stream of free money.

    Good job. Thanks to the team who organises and manages these events.

  4. Raf came across well, he provided plenty of policy detail which was lacking in the other candidates. Hamish was a complete wash out, poor performance. That probably won’t matter as I agree it looks like national will win anyway based off that poll. It’s hard not to feel deflated at the seemingly inevitable political outcomes in NZ

    • Sure, he wasn’t very polished but the guy is a scientist, not a career politician who knows how to deliver soundbites. He’d be an asset to Parliament.

  5. If you could distill the PMC (tribal Labour and green voters) down to just a small elite of pointy heads with phds who are awfully nice people to share a fine dining experience with and who have some fabulous pointy headed ideas which would instantly fail as soon as they left their own rarified atmosphere, you would have TOP.

      • Never party voted Nat in my life thanks. Might one day if they look like a decent option. Have much more often voted left than right.
        Sure ain’t tribal.

        Tribal left and right voters lack neural plasticity.
        They tend to be ignorant or a bit thick or both.

        Look at you for example.
        The left is destroying race relations and democracy and all you can do is point fingers at the opposition.

  6. Labour has lost the plot (and the left that used to support them), with their die hard woke obsession.

    Good summary from Chris Trotter,

    Chris Trotter gives his assessment of PM & Labour leader Chris Hipkins’ weekend speech on which political parties he will & won’t work with

    Another sad problem is how the NZ woke MSM media seem incapable of any political investigation away from woke. MSM get given taxpayer millions to tag along with Labour’s woke agenda, why have real journalism, and pay real journos proper wages and conditions?

    NZ media now get $$$$ from government and print government friendly propaganda, while taking trite free content from any source, to plug in the rest of their NZ media content.

    • That was a useful link to Chris Trotter; thank you.
      Somewhat apposite is this quote from Hadley Freeman, in the article about her in this week’s Listener:
      “If you’re more interested in performing your own purity than understanding [other] people’s plurality, you’re not looking at progress, you’re looking into a mirror”

  7. ‘National – They are well on their way to winning despite a very weak candidate, which sums National up well this election.’

    Indeed, what goes Ilam goes for the nation.

  8. Do you think Hipkins gets that?

    Knock, knock, anyone home?
    Do you think they are all asleep. They are clearly not awake. (The original meaning of Woke! Is to not be asleep at the tiller.)

    I agree, excellent analysis by Trotter.

  9. Manji didn’t know which party he is standing for. Act, National or the Greens even!

    As for the rest. How boring. They made Grant sound half reasonable ffs.

  10. Thank you for coming down to the South Island, Martyn. That’s a start.
    But your next sessions are, I gather, to be in Auckland.
    Might I remind you of the existence of the southern South? South of the Waitaki? Way down here? (A fact that some/most/all political parties also need reminding about).
    Openly declaring my interest, if you will allow, I’m standing as an Independent in the Taieri (former South Dunedin) electorate, on a 3-part platform: (1) Reverse the cuts to the new Dunedin hospital; (2) Reinstate the Mosgiel-Dunedin suburban rail service, electrified; and (3) Extend assisted dying to include advanced dementia, per an advance directive. I’m not a young chap (Joe Biden’s age), but one must do what one must do.
    If you were to conduct a similar session down here, in Taieri, I would be grateful to be included on the platform. You could perhaps invite Andrew Geddis, local law guru and frequent commentator, as your side-kick.
    You could see, in more detail, what I’m on about at my website: Do have a peep.
    Mac (actually not Tom!) Gardner

  11. And all put together without a cent of NZOA cash.

    Keep pushing that point Bomber and add a little more gunpowder to that statement.

  12. Sucks that Raf and TOP have got a mountain to climb to convince people to give them a chance, but what a disappointing audience and National candidate. Literally the platitude of “I’m for good things and not for bad things (that benefit me!)” all while banking on having an easy time governing after the disappointments of Labour. The Greens candidate spoke the truth. If we keep dodging long-term problems with short term platitudes and going back to the ‘good old days’… then expect to be bewildered at every election when everything isn’t fixed, papered over enough, or when the younger generation turns increasingly feral with little hope in anything good. What happened to being considerate and thoughtful, especially to the least of these – even when they don’t ‘deserve’ it?

  13. ” Have we fallen so low ”

    Yeah just listening to Hamish Campbell in the debate who is standing for the Nasties convinces me that National select these inept people to run in safe National seats knowing they wont be scrutinised and that they will get voted in because they are standing for National in a safe National seat.

    In my opinion he was a flake and not worthy of the nomination and did not inspire any confidence at all.

    Out of all of them Raf was the best in articulating a vision.

    The Greens and LINO got the usual bash and despite their woeful wasted last three years this is hostile wealthy National party territory.

    Damien should go back to his business of making money full time. He is painful to listen to and watch.

  14. Sarah did a great job highlighting what’s at stake if NACT get in during her speech in parliament today, her and Mike should do a deal with Raf

  15. The National candidate had a poor showing. He barely answered the questions and when asked on his vision for ilam and Christchurch he just talked about his family!

    Raf appeared to be the only one not just with vision, but power within his party to make a genuine difference. I will now be voting for him. I just dont see how others look past such a clearly obvious great camdidate to vote for a poor National candidate with no real plan for the electorate.


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