If Q+As focus on the economic meltdown in China and the possibility of conflict doesn’t have you sitting up in alarm, you are not paying attention.
The domestic Chinese property crisis alongside the flawed Covid opening alongside the extreme climate events alongside the rising unemployment alongside a crashing economy are terribly problematic for NZ because we are so exposed to China.
When our books open next month, all eyes will be on NZ to see how steep the shut down in China is while exposing out exposure to them.
It will cause a run on the NZ stock market, those KiwiSaver accounts will get smashed and the sense of economic crisis will be intense. Rodney Jones’s interview with Jack was deeply concerning because he was putting the dots together over this.
National under John Key sold NZ a ‘all our cows in one Beijing Paddock’ strategy and unfortunately we handed our cows over cheaply to China and they have grown their own massive new dairy farms.
This is a fundamental shock to the model big Dairy have sold NZ for 20 years and it’s going to explode next month.
Right now in NZ we have 25 000 people on the social housing wait list, we spend $1million per day Kettling beneficiaries into unsafe motels, barely 50% of our students were regularly attending class in term 1, Home ownership is at its lowest rate in 70 years, there are 200 000 children in poverty, 55% of Kiwis are struggling financially, we are facing the worst food inflation for 30 years, there’s 100 000 homeless and the planet is melting before our eyes!
The problems we face demand answers better than taking GST off a banana!
When the books get opened next month and the exposure to China’s dramatic slow down are made public, the stock market will sink and people’s Kiwi Savers will get hit alongside higher interest rates. A sense of economic crisis will be upon us and Labour will say, “We guided you through the last crisis and looked after everyone, do you honestly think Luxon and David Seymour will look after you or their rich mates?”
The China debate is now here in time for Election.
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The interest rates need to drop immediately to relieve pressure on rents. There are empty retail and office premise everywhere. The middle class have been hit with mortgage payments that have doubled. They are going into the fruit shops and deciding to just not buy a banana. There’s less than half as many people out in the shops buying stuff streets are dead. Restaurants are nearly busy one day a week instead of busy four days a week. Meat and dairy prices are down twenty percent. Banks just want to get paid. Under what rational does Adrian Orr destroy the economy instead of the government repaying the debt by taxing the ultra wealthy. Shit has hit the fan so kiwis will vote for change and get Act = Austerity.
You’re just another kiwi blogger blaming everyone else instead of your retarded modelling.
The condition of NZ’s books is all on Robertson and Orr. Irrespective of concerns over Beltway and Te Reo’s economic credentials that fact that we pissed 100b against the wall In bureaucracy, vanity projects and corporate welfare is more of a reason for our precarious economic situation.
Featherston II. When, not if.
In this case it still demands a side recession which means that as soon as demand is allowed to return, inflation comes roaring back. Many have been blasting Labours economic management, hindsight will make those comments embarrassing.
Not only does growth have to erase the contraction from corona it has to erase future contractions. To be fair Labours economic management isn’t what everyone is lambasting them over. But the reason everyone is lambasting them over it boils down to wealth taxes or lack of.
It helped Labour during corona that they had majority control of parliament and National ACT couldn’t really block anything. New Zealand is about to increase political division for completely no reason.
In comparison being hit really fucken hard initially by an incoming National/ACT government is going to suck ass tightens the belt means jack shit if you can’t dig yourself out.
Collectively New Zealand has shown an inability to act decisively which plagued the 2008 hang over Christchurch quake, corona or any future shock. And what happens when New Zealand’s Australian bank owners recover quicker than we do and wants to raise interest rates? The walls are closing in fast.
Add to that dependence on tourism. Energy & technology shortages attached to very very tight stimulus strings you’re staring down the barrel of the Japanification of New Zealand all because wealth taxes makes you feel a certain way.
Less farmers farming / More pine trees.
China is the third largest dairy producer in the world output about 34 million tonnes – but that only supplies 70% of their demand – they still need to import a lot.
Chinese don’t entirely trust their own suppliers , high levels of corruption , dubious quality standards .
Another problem in Asia is that a high proportion of the population is lactose intolerant . So quality and type of milk is important.
With declining prices almost all dairy farms will be looking for tax refunds this year after paying provisional tax based on high returns last year.
Expect quite a few to be sold up with returns not covering the interest rates on mortgages now plus high wage costs.
Times will get tougher it will take a while to flow through to the big cities.
It will be nice to see spendthrift cities like Auckland cut down to size – the rest of the country is fed up with hearing about Auckland’s demand for billions for this & that and expecting the rest of the country to subsidise them .
More likely they throw the blame at Labours feet as the incumbent government and its a generational wipeout
China lies, books will be turned from brown to rosy before release.
Assuming China shares some or even all of the issues as the Russians it’ll spur China into energetic correction.
Indeed. The big picture. The local show provides some current entertainment – left, right, red, blue, green, it won’t really matter in the end. If Rodney Jones is correct, the coming years will be troublesome. The existing market with China turns to custard, especially dairy. Supply chains severely disrupted. Oh, fuck! As Jones put it, it’ll make the CoV19 pandemic a walk in the park. Hope whatever government are up to it.
I suspect the most repeated complaint will be about “how Labour stuffed the Chinese economy with their loopy ideas” so the chance of a rational reaction to the bad news is almost nil.
At the end of the interview, Jack Tame asked Rodney Jones what can NZ do? What he failed to mention was stockpiling.
We (as a country) need to start stockpiling fuel, medicines and other necessary goods.
We already do that out to 6 months on the things you mention.
What Xi fears more than war, is what Putin fears more than war, is what all capitalists fear more than war. Economic contraction and recession is what capitalists fear more than war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-1n-05Xu6Y&ab_channel=PolyMatter
Committing the country to go to war is the single biggest decision any government ever has to make. (As we have so many times in the past, we can’t be allowed to just drift into it without debate ).
War Warning – the China debate is now here in time for Election
But will the the legacy parties Labour and National want to debate it?
Not if they can help it.
Vaping, cell phones in schools, tax cuts, (govt. spending cuts) are the big issues for them. The Legacy Parties will just let us drift into the coming war with China without any debate.
The Legacy Parties are quite content to let the decision to go to war be made for us by others.
CLIMATE CHANGE, COST OF LIVING, WAR
Our thanks to the TWG and the DB for holding our political leaders feet to the fire on the big issues,
(No wonder your twitter feed is being censored in the run up to the election).