With NZ First over 5%, the pressures on the MMP Spectrum for change beyond the disappointment of Labour’s mediocrity is greater than just propelling Winston back into Parliament.
The economic pressure will only build between now and the election.
If NZ First will be propelled over 5%, the pressures for change will carry through NZ’s MMP pumps – the Māori Party could cause an overhang and we could see TOP possibly winning Ilam while bringing in coat tail MPs.
There will be Electorate upsets: Tamaki, Wellington Central, Northland and ACT will end up with a very high Auckland vote.
We could see Labour, National, ACT, Greens, Māori Party, NZ First and TOP all in Parliament.
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
The Rough Beast of NuZilind slouches towards Wellington.
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Pope P – Don’t attempt to make final judgments – they will come horribly in the future if we all go on as we are doing.
Please try thinking likelihoods, how to go round problems – think about Sun Tzu and his recommendations for knowledge and wile. Pronouncements of negativity are worthless, we can think those well enough ourselves. In the end we may not win through to a future that is worthy of us, but we owe it to each other and those from the past to think; try to live our time going towards the future well, with intelligence and kindness.
You are right Pope. KI live in Ilam and seen no bill boards .One meeting which was joke .Sarah Pallet has been invisible for 3 years and National have a keen man so hopefully it will go back to them
@ M.B.
What’s that saying about dividing to conquer?
I always thought it was jimbo bolger’s gubbimint that introduced mmp but no. It wasn’t.
It was the Hog Flea and his queasy caucus.
“Following their election into government in 1984, Labour established the Royal Commission into the Electoral System, and the commission’s 1986 report recommended the adoption of mixed-member proportional representation [MMP].”
“The 1996 election
After two months of negotiations a coalition government was formed (to the surprise of many) between the previously antagonistic National and New Zealand First parties. As this was New Zealand’s first coalition government since the 1930s, the arrangement took some getting used to.”
So. The ol Natzo’s aye. Firstly, pig muldoon comes slithering back from Switzerland having opened a number account there, then, as is evident, he would have groomed the Hog Flea douglas in the wily ways of Pig Kingdom. douglas then went up and inside Labour as a two term finance minister to then excreted out of Labour to go and create ACT.
You can see the patterns, right.
We Kiwi’s all would have had no idea what was going on. I was around in the city at the time and I certainly didn’t. The first I’d heard of neo-liberalism was from a friend who was studying psychology at Canterbury and that was in about 1986.
So, correct me if I’m wrong, but today’s neo-liberalism is older than rogers 1984s Labour. NZ neo-liberalism must, in fact, go way back to pre muldoon. Jesus! No wonder a modest little agricultural exports country has impressive Edwardian urban architecture and a big, fancy, silly little city like Auckland.
Thieving AO/NZ farmers has been going on for generations and generations! Fuck! ( Actually. I knew that. )
A Royal Commission actually advised that AO/NZ become an MMP country! Jesus Christ! Mind you our governor generals are a dodgy pack of fuckers so why am I surprised?
No wonder then that the internet’s lagging in its uptake in rural AO/NZ. Ignorance is bliss, aye Boys?
So they’re coming to get us. The jewel in the burning crown.
It’s now no longer an ‘if’ but a ‘when’. I’d write, seeing as how the yanks are building cages around Russia and China to squeeze them into war. Hey. Someone has to feed the military industrial machinery so it may as well be us. It’ll be Hollywood.
Hollywood must surely be the biggest propaganda machine ever built. Inside Hollywood there’s mighty Jewish money and those Jews have family links to Israel and they certainly won’t want their whanau get burned to a crisp like jonky-stiens last snarler on the barbi while he sips a beersie with * Prince William.
I was right all along. We’re fucked.
* Was interesting though, that Prince William swung by AFTER I wrote a letter to the Queen begging her to drop in for a look-see. Her press person wrote back that Her Majesty had found some of the points I raised very interesting, probably the ones with the fuck words about jonk E and the natzos in them. I’m joking! And that she’d been instructed to pass my letter on to our Governor General and jonky’s bestie Lieutenant General Sir Jeremiah Mateparae. Not a word was heard back. Why waste time on the hoi polloi when one can tinkle the crystal with the rich and powerful and the powerfully rich aye Jerry?
The governor general gets paid NZ$371,900 annually and I never, ever see or hear from her, generally writing, I hasten to add. I don’t even know her name. Do you? It’s like having a ghost state that takes money and gives back nothing… How weird? How familiar? Aye Boys?
Agree Ngungukai , maybe even more . Mine will be a protest vote because Labour is a lost neoliberal cause . The last cynical announcement of taking the Blackrock viper to their bossom was just to much . As a protest vote at least Winnie will get MP bums on seats as opposed to some of the fringe players I was contemplating .
Keep thinking Dave. We are not in Guatemala now – remember that? Time has moved on so must we. What strategies can we fight back with today to prevent becoming dinosaurs?
They absolutely will and could even go to 8%. Have you heard of the ???? effect (Obviously not as I cant remember the name) because its something that happens when a major party is polling badly in the three weeks before the election. Voters for that party see change coming. They dont want it but start to see their usual vote as dead weight. So they start tactical voting.
Scenario: Labour is losing in the polls, many Labour voters will switch their vote to another party. Some will drive left to the Greens but the smarter ones will look at the NACTS coalition coming and think how cn we water that down? Then they start voting NZF to put the handbrake on ACT.
True phenomena often seen in elections like these. Add to that the extraordinary amount of olde Labour lifer voters who have been left at the side of the road by a Labour that no longer represents them and you will see them (and me as one of them) toss their vote in with NZF because none of us want to vote NACT.
I think a lot of disappointed Labour supporters (on the R of the Labour spectrum) will vote for NZF as a handbrake on National/Act, many of the freedom people might vote NZF simply because Winston visited the Wellington Protest while the real MPS didn’t, and many on the political right who are more inclined towards nationalism than globalism may vote NZF. If NZF really play their cards right they could potentially get the largest percentage of the vote in their history. Interesting times. It is also going to depend on the NZF party list and the quality of their candidates, I suspect WinstonFirst is no longer a popular proposition.
Agree, Fantail and Ben Waimata. Peters not only engaged with the protestors, he was then trespassed from the Parliamentary precinct for x years by Trevor Mallard and took legal action to have that trespass revoked. Unlike Labour, Peters also supports freedom of speech.
Blame the Labour Party machine! Its candidate selection policies especially.
Mediocre is a very polite description of Labour, bungling incompetence more accurate, but that’s not the only reason they are sinking. Or why NZF is rising. Few if any have seen a real “progressive” party in action, not unless you’ve lived in San Francisco or Portland, but Labour 2020 demonstrated exactly what one looks like and that is the ultimate deal breaker for them returning as a political force.
The secretive behind the scenes social working manipulation, the critical race theory put into practice and a misplaced belief that Labour Green know better how to run our day to day lives has gone beyond irritation to infuriating. The proof that their centralised planning has failed to deliver on things as serious as life or death is health. Te Whato Ora can’t even give surgical waiting lists anymore, or most likely, are burying them because they are so bad. But this is a none too surprising outcome, given Moscow too failed on the basics back in the day.
I feel for Chippy, he is likeable but he inherited the Titanic post iceberg with the Captain whose decisions got them there gapping it in a lifeboat on her own into the growing distance, Damehood in hand.
And sorry, but a bunch of well meaning manipulative jerks who don’t know how to build anything or realise their beliefs based on faulty data have seriously negative ramifications for the rest if us don’t deserve reelection!
Marco – A salient point but I think you’ll find that there is a still a huge amount of connectivity in OAP homes these days and the oldies are very interested in politics.
In fact, there is one major OAP place in Auckland which was said to be a hornets nest of anti Jacinda settlement by the media. LOL.
Fantail “ Anti Jacinda sentiment “ Ditto in the charity volunteer sector who see more of the results of government ineptitude than most politicians do. This group includes not only older wiser people, mainly women, but students on various schemes, persons serving community service sentences.
It amazes me how statements like the one you have made here actually can be made. If you live in NZ and have seen the hopeless management of the country by the two largest parties over past 25 years and you make such a derogatory comment about Peter’s shows more about you than anything. The country is in a mess and has been for 25 years. Without Peter’s and Jones the same result will continue. I say let them have their way. The others have stuffed it up properly
With the collapsing Auckland Labour vote the likes of Twyford, Wood and “Jenny from the Block” will be sweating bullets. Another one on the nose will be the TAB operator in Masterton.
Twyfords seat wax getting marginal a couple of elections back and seeing him cast out would be deserved. McAnulty definitely in the cross-hairs. And even more deserving to go!
“ But in the importance and noise of tomorrow
When the brokers are roaring like beasts on the floor of the Bourse,
And the poor have the sufferings to which they are fairly accustomed,
And each in the cell of himself is almost convinced of his freedom,
A few thousand will think of this day
As one thinks of a day when one did something slightly unusual.
What instruments we have agree
The day of his death was a dark cold day.”
Further in regard to Seemire (sorry Freudian slip) – I think that a hardback copy in large print (so he could see and understand more) of Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand would be an excellent IED of a sort, if dropped close to his head from a great height.
Mike it’s not a degrogatary statement about NZ First at all. I value Winston s experience and he was a excellent minister.
Just stating that the Aged Care voter base is huge and only getting bigger and it is good politics to play to these voters with the likes of gold cards. But it can be hard to measure certain segment s of this group in a poll.
TOP won’t win anything – they’re a busted flush. Just another flaky globalist liberal party.
They’re all flaky globalist parties! But apparently the nation is so dumbed down and corrupt that it’s incapable of producing anything else
Pope P – Don’t attempt to make final judgments – they will come horribly in the future if we all go on as we are doing.
Please try thinking likelihoods, how to go round problems – think about Sun Tzu and his recommendations for knowledge and wile. Pronouncements of negativity are worthless, we can think those well enough ourselves. In the end we may not win through to a future that is worthy of us, but we owe it to each other and those from the past to think; try to live our time going towards the future well, with intelligence and kindness.
Let’s be positive then and be glad that ACT will sweep away much of the useless garbage from the previous six years.
Twit in a cage – aiming to be wit. Good to keep trying though.
You are right Pope. KI live in Ilam and seen no bill boards .One meeting which was joke .Sarah Pallet has been invisible for 3 years and National have a keen man so hopefully it will go back to them
Pope Punctilious II – 100% …bugger all people in Ilam will be voting for TOP
NZF is looking good for 8%+.
The more Seemore Butt overreacts to the realisation that he’ll have to work with Winston to keep the Nat/Act/NZF government in government.
My bet for another election post, the general election looks good too.
Hehehe!
What a rodeo eh Tane. You are mastering the ride – don’t let it buck you and fall off.
@ M.B.
What’s that saying about dividing to conquer?
I always thought it was jimbo bolger’s gubbimint that introduced mmp but no. It wasn’t.
It was the Hog Flea and his queasy caucus.
“Following their election into government in 1984, Labour established the Royal Commission into the Electoral System, and the commission’s 1986 report recommended the adoption of mixed-member proportional representation [MMP].”
“The 1996 election
After two months of negotiations a coalition government was formed (to the surprise of many) between the previously antagonistic National and New Zealand First parties. As this was New Zealand’s first coalition government since the 1930s, the arrangement took some getting used to.”
So. The ol Natzo’s aye. Firstly, pig muldoon comes slithering back from Switzerland having opened a number account there, then, as is evident, he would have groomed the Hog Flea douglas in the wily ways of Pig Kingdom. douglas then went up and inside Labour as a two term finance minister to then excreted out of Labour to go and create ACT.
You can see the patterns, right.
We Kiwi’s all would have had no idea what was going on. I was around in the city at the time and I certainly didn’t. The first I’d heard of neo-liberalism was from a friend who was studying psychology at Canterbury and that was in about 1986.
So, correct me if I’m wrong, but today’s neo-liberalism is older than rogers 1984s Labour. NZ neo-liberalism must, in fact, go way back to pre muldoon. Jesus! No wonder a modest little agricultural exports country has impressive Edwardian urban architecture and a big, fancy, silly little city like Auckland.
Thieving AO/NZ farmers has been going on for generations and generations! Fuck! ( Actually. I knew that. )
A Royal Commission actually advised that AO/NZ become an MMP country! Jesus Christ! Mind you our governor generals are a dodgy pack of fuckers so why am I surprised?
No wonder then that the internet’s lagging in its uptake in rural AO/NZ. Ignorance is bliss, aye Boys?
So they’re coming to get us. The jewel in the burning crown.
It’s now no longer an ‘if’ but a ‘when’. I’d write, seeing as how the yanks are building cages around Russia and China to squeeze them into war. Hey. Someone has to feed the military industrial machinery so it may as well be us. It’ll be Hollywood.
Hollywood must surely be the biggest propaganda machine ever built. Inside Hollywood there’s mighty Jewish money and those Jews have family links to Israel and they certainly won’t want their whanau get burned to a crisp like jonky-stiens last snarler on the barbi while he sips a beersie with * Prince William.
I was right all along. We’re fucked.
* Was interesting though, that Prince William swung by AFTER I wrote a letter to the Queen begging her to drop in for a look-see. Her press person wrote back that Her Majesty had found some of the points I raised very interesting, probably the ones with the fuck words about jonk E and the natzos in them. I’m joking! And that she’d been instructed to pass my letter on to our Governor General and jonky’s bestie Lieutenant General Sir Jeremiah Mateparae. Not a word was heard back. Why waste time on the hoi polloi when one can tinkle the crystal with the rich and powerful and the powerfully rich aye Jerry?
The governor general gets paid NZ$371,900 annually and I never, ever see or hear from her, generally writing, I hasten to add. I don’t even know her name. Do you? It’s like having a ghost state that takes money and gives back nothing… How weird? How familiar? Aye Boys?
NZF won’t get 5%. That’s just people taking the piss with the polling companies.
Winston First will get 7-8% so long as Winnie and Shane Jones don’t f*ck it up ?
Agree Ngungukai , maybe even more . Mine will be a protest vote because Labour is a lost neoliberal cause . The last cynical announcement of taking the Blackrock viper to their bossom was just to much . As a protest vote at least Winnie will get MP bums on seats as opposed to some of the fringe players I was contemplating .
Too late, they already did…
In 2017! Never vote New Zealand First again!
Keep thinking Dave. We are not in Guatemala now – remember that? Time has moved on so must we. What strategies can we fight back with today to prevent becoming dinosaurs?
They absolutely will and could even go to 8%. Have you heard of the ???? effect (Obviously not as I cant remember the name) because its something that happens when a major party is polling badly in the three weeks before the election. Voters for that party see change coming. They dont want it but start to see their usual vote as dead weight. So they start tactical voting.
Scenario: Labour is losing in the polls, many Labour voters will switch their vote to another party. Some will drive left to the Greens but the smarter ones will look at the NACTS coalition coming and think how cn we water that down? Then they start voting NZF to put the handbrake on ACT.
True phenomena often seen in elections like these. Add to that the extraordinary amount of olde Labour lifer voters who have been left at the side of the road by a Labour that no longer represents them and you will see them (and me as one of them) toss their vote in with NZF because none of us want to vote NACT.
I think a lot of disappointed Labour supporters (on the R of the Labour spectrum) will vote for NZF as a handbrake on National/Act, many of the freedom people might vote NZF simply because Winston visited the Wellington Protest while the real MPS didn’t, and many on the political right who are more inclined towards nationalism than globalism may vote NZF. If NZF really play their cards right they could potentially get the largest percentage of the vote in their history. Interesting times. It is also going to depend on the NZF party list and the quality of their candidates, I suspect WinstonFirst is no longer a popular proposition.
Agree, Fantail and Ben Waimata. Peters not only engaged with the protestors, he was then trespassed from the Parliamentary precinct for x years by Trevor Mallard and took legal action to have that trespass revoked. Unlike Labour, Peters also supports freedom of speech.
Blame the Labour Party machine! Its candidate selection policies especially.
Mediocre is a very polite description of Labour, bungling incompetence more accurate, but that’s not the only reason they are sinking. Or why NZF is rising. Few if any have seen a real “progressive” party in action, not unless you’ve lived in San Francisco or Portland, but Labour 2020 demonstrated exactly what one looks like and that is the ultimate deal breaker for them returning as a political force.
The secretive behind the scenes social working manipulation, the critical race theory put into practice and a misplaced belief that Labour Green know better how to run our day to day lives has gone beyond irritation to infuriating. The proof that their centralised planning has failed to deliver on things as serious as life or death is health. Te Whato Ora can’t even give surgical waiting lists anymore, or most likely, are burying them because they are so bad. But this is a none too surprising outcome, given Moscow too failed on the basics back in the day.
I feel for Chippy, he is likeable but he inherited the Titanic post iceberg with the Captain whose decisions got them there gapping it in a lifeboat on her own into the growing distance, Damehood in hand.
And sorry, but a bunch of well meaning manipulative jerks who don’t know how to build anything or realise their beliefs based on faulty data have seriously negative ramifications for the rest if us don’t deserve reelection!
Roy, most of NZ First silent voters are in Aged Care facilities or near to going in to them, so never get picked up in online polls.
Marco – A salient point but I think you’ll find that there is a still a huge amount of connectivity in OAP homes these days and the oldies are very interested in politics.
In fact, there is one major OAP place in Auckland which was said to be a hornets nest of anti Jacinda settlement by the media. LOL.
Fantail “ Anti Jacinda sentiment “ Ditto in the charity volunteer sector who see more of the results of government ineptitude than most politicians do. This group includes not only older wiser people, mainly women, but students on various schemes, persons serving community service sentences.
Marco + Battler
It amazes me how statements like the one you have made here actually can be made. If you live in NZ and have seen the hopeless management of the country by the two largest parties over past 25 years and you make such a derogatory comment about Peter’s shows more about you than anything. The country is in a mess and has been for 25 years. Without Peter’s and Jones the same result will continue. I say let them have their way. The others have stuffed it up properly
With the collapsing Auckland Labour vote the likes of Twyford, Wood and “Jenny from the Block” will be sweating bullets. Another one on the nose will be the TAB operator in Masterton.
Twyfords seat wax getting marginal a couple of elections back and seeing him cast out would be deserved. McAnulty definitely in the cross-hairs. And even more deserving to go!
Good, I loathe that guy. The smiling assasin.
From ‘ In Memory of W.B. Yeats’.
“ But in the importance and noise of tomorrow
When the brokers are roaring like beasts on the floor of the Bourse,
And the poor have the sufferings to which they are fairly accustomed,
And each in the cell of himself is almost convinced of his freedom,
A few thousand will think of this day
As one thinks of a day when one did something slightly unusual.
What instruments we have agree
The day of his death was a dark cold day.”
W.H. Auden
I’m swinging towards Winnie to poke a stick into Seymours training wheels
What a funny, simple and clever idea.
Further in regard to Seemire (sorry Freudian slip) – I think that a hardback copy in large print (so he could see and understand more) of Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand would be an excellent IED of a sort, if dropped close to his head from a great height.
Mike it’s not a degrogatary statement about NZ First at all. I value Winston s experience and he was a excellent minister.
Just stating that the Aged Care voter base is huge and only getting bigger and it is good politics to play to these voters with the likes of gold cards. But it can be hard to measure certain segment s of this group in a poll.