Jesus wept, I have been warning and arguing for over a decade that Global Warming represents an existential crisis to our species because built within the biosphere are tipping points that once crossed will see catastrophic shifts in temperatures that will make complex societies impossible within large parts of the planet.
The speed of how quickly the global weather systems are unravelling is unprecedented and the latest research out yesterday on one of the most important tipping points, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current, is so much worse than anyone thought possible that it demands an immediate reset of everything we do and highlights that Fortress Aotearoa is our last hope.
The research is just so bad…
A vital system of ocean currents could collapse within a few decades if the world continues to pump out planet-heating pollution, scientists are warning – an event that would be catastrophic for global weather and “affect every person on the planet.”
A new study published Tuesday in the journal Nature, found that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current – of which the Gulf Stream is a part – could collapse around the middle of the century, or even as early as 2025.
Scientists uninvolved with this study told CNN the exact tipping point for the critical system is uncertain, and that measurements of the currents have so far showed little trend or change. But they agreed these results are alarming and provide new evidence that the tipping point could occur sooner than previously thought.
The AMOC is a complex tangle of currents that works like a giant global conveyor belt. It transports warm water from the tropics toward the North Atlantic, where the water cools, becomes saltier and sinks deep into the ocean, before spreading southwards.
It plays a crucial role in the climate system, helping regulate global weather patterns. Its collapse would have enormous implications, including much more extreme winters and sea level rises affecting parts of Europe and the US, and a shifting of the monsoon in the tropics.
For years, scientists have been warning of its instability as the climate crisis accelerates, threatening to upset the balance of temperature and salinity on which the strength of these currents depend.
As the oceans heat up and ice melts, more freshwater flows into the ocean and reduces the water’s density, making it less able to sink. When waters become too fresh, too warm or both, the conveyor belt stops.
It has happened before. More than 12,000 years ago, rapid glacier melt caused the AMOC to shut down, leading to huge Northern Hemisphere temperature fluctuations of 10 to 15 degrees Celsius (18 to 27 Fahrenheit) within a decade.
A shutdown “would affect every person on the planet – it’s that big and important,” said Peter de Menocal, the president of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, who was not involved in the study.
A 2019 report by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted that the AMOC would weaken over this century, but that its full collapse before 2100 was unlikely.
This new study comes to a much more alarming conclusion.
As the AMOC has only been continuously monitored since 2004, the study authors looked to a much larger dataset, and one which could show how the currents behaved in a period without human-caused climate change.
“We needed to go back in time,” said Peter Ditlevsen, a professor of climate physics at the University of Copenhagen and one of the authors of the report. The scientists analyzed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic in an area south of Greenland over a period of 150 years between 1870 and 2020.
This part of the ocean is warmed by the water transported north from the tropics by the AMOC, Ditlevsen said, “so if it cools, it’s because the AMOC is weakening.” The authors then subtracted the impacts of human-caused global warming on the water temperature to understand how the currents were changing.
They found “early warning signals” of critical changes in the AMOC, which led them to predict “with high confidence” that it could shut down or collapse as early as 2025 and no later than 2095. The likeliest point of collapse is somewhere between 2039 and 2070, Ditlevsen said.
“It’s really scary,” he told CNN. “This is not something you would lightly put into papers,” he said, adding, “we’re very confident that this is a robust result.”
De Menocal said the study results were “both surprising and alarming.”
It’s been clear for a while that the AMOC will weaken in the coming decades, he told CNN. In 2021, a study found the AMOC was showing signs of instability due to climate change.
…fuckwits in NZ who claim ‘there’s nothing we can do’ about climate change don’t understand that it’s already done!
The temperature swings predicted are beyond species ability to adapt and are beyond civilisations capacity to function.
If the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current shuts down, Fortress Aotearoa is our only move.
It is time to Think Bigger!
The great comrade Chris Trotter warns us that Autarky can not be NZs future because we don’t have enough self-sufficiency built into NZs economy.
I agree that’s a problem, but it certainly isn’t an impossible problem to overcome.
Yes we need a basic pharmaceutical industry if we want to be self sufficient.
Yes I believe we urgently need to raise our military spending to 5% of GDP.
Yes Māori we’re able to live here self sufficiently for almost a century but I’m not suggesting a subsistence existence.
The naked truth is that Fortress Aotearoa will be forced upon us whether we are willing or not.
The catastrophic heat via pollution locked into our system goes so beyond what the ice core samples tell us that we are in uncharted territory.
Normally heat like this occurs over hundreds of thousands of years thanks to the angle of the Earth on its axis but we have done that in less than 3 centuries!
When the process occurs naturally over hundreds of thousands of years, the sudden and dramatic flip from burning hot to ice age can occur within decades. Create all that power within centuries and we turbo charge those flipping points in ways far more abrupt and damaging.
The rapid melting of the doomsday glacier in Antarctica and the shut down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will trigger irreversible environmental collapse within decades, not the end of the century.
There is no optimism on the climate front, just consequences now.
With such significant weather catastrophes occurring with ever more whithering destruction, other country’s will move to Autarky, will NZers cheers those planes landing with tourists while burning more climate gases or will they attack the Airports to shut them down?
Look at how every poll in NZ shows over 50% support for a total close of the border from a virus with the low mortality rate of Covid?
The climate crisis destroys environments and makes it more likely and probable that an Alpha virus far more lethal than Covid-19 will emerge – you think Kiwis will
While the globalists infect every political party in NZ, all it takes is one populist spark to breath Fortress NZ into life.
Post growth capitalism with true sustainability calls for Autarky on a burning planet than can’t take anymore globalism.
Muldoon thought big because he believed the oil shocks of the 70s was the future. He was wrong then but that doesn’t mean he’s wrong now.
The US Military Industrial complex simply solved the problem of an Oligopoly by seeding and backing harsh authoritarian regimes with lots of oil so that they could always access cheap petrol making Muldoon’s investment meaningless but The Military Industrial Complex can’t negotiate with the planet as we make it sicker and sicker!
As the reality of the enormity of climate change starts to dawn, people will be looking for ‘lifeboats’, NZ is one of these ‘lifeboats’…
Why NZ could be humanity’s ‘lifeboat’ in an extinction
Scientists have singled out New Zealand as a potential “ark” to reboot civilisation if a deadly pandemic swept the planet.
In a study just published in the international journal Risk Analysis , researchers found that New Zealand, along with Australia and Iceland, could serve as “lifeboats” to help humanity recover from a full-scale extinction event.
…while the focus here is on a pandemic, the same is true of NZ being a lifeboat for climate change.
The current political spectrum in New Zealand can not radically adapt fast enough to adopt the changes we must make if we are to survive the climate crisis. It will require a radical Political Movement that elects a Party to implement Fortress Aotearoa…
-
- Move away from intensive farming and look to become domestically self sustainable in terms of food.
- Immediately ban all water exports
- 5 year Parliamentary term.
- Upper and Lower House (Upper House 50-50 split between Māori & Pakeha that can hold up legislation if unhappy about Treaty issues)
- Massive investment into R&D from Government with the understanding research is to benefit NZ first before sold offshore.
- Large scale increase in Navy, Army & Airforce.
- Mass limiting of tourism numbers with increased tourist taxes.
- Only citizens can vote.
- Sustainable immigration and an end to exploitative migrant workers.
- Resettlement Programms for all pacific island neighbours.
- Increase refugee in take to 10000 per year
- Fully funded public services.
- Mass Green housing rebuild.
- 100% renewable energy for entire country.
- Massive native tree planting across previous farming land.
- Wholesale re-write of state services act to end commercial values.
- Investment into basic pharmaceutical production.
- Financial transaction tax
- Wealth tax
- Multinational tax
- Inheritance tax
As the climate crisis unfolds more and more people in fury will turn against the current political system too wedded to the economic profits margins of the polluters. It is just a matter of time before the NZ electorate rejects the limitations of the current political spectrum.
The climate crisis will demand we have the military engineering capacity to rebuild from extreme weather events; have the military power to project across the Pacific in response to climate crisis civil disruption or extreme weather events; protection of fishing stock.
To ignore the real need for us to invest far larger amounts into the Defence force and to build a bigger Air, Land and Sea service as a response to the crisis emergency is as unacceptable as climate denial is.
And while we are talking about the consequences of the climate crisis, Australia wants passport free travel…
Australia and New Zealand citizens could have passport-free travel if security talks successful
…we should only agree on this for very specific wins like a shared pharmaceutical industry because as the climate crisis overwhelms Australia’s ability to survive at certain temperatures, NZ will be flooded with Australian climate refugees.
There’s barely 5million of us and 26million of them. Let’s keep our distance.
The tyranny of distance has always been our malaise but on a burning planet of constant external shocks the Shire of NZ is looking very good right now.
‘Build that wall’ will soon become ‘defend that moat’.
In 1980, the time between billion dollar climate destruction events was 3 months.
It’s now 18 days.
There is a point where the next destructive weather event strikes before you can rebuild from the last one.
Fortress Aotearoa is coming whether we want it or not.
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Well, to spin a positive out of a negative, this is one crystal clear way of shutting up the so-called climate deniers for all time. 2025 is only a few sleeps away, so come 2025, the signs of a world nearing its end will be impossible to deny, impossible to deny with Fortress Aotearoa in full swing!
Otherwise…..
It wouldn’t matter if the climate scientists were all massively wrong. The ‘Fortress’ idea means breaking the back of neoliberalism in Australasia, and returning to the most prosperous times of the region’s history — the period of 1945-1985, when people really did call the place ‘Fortress N.Z.’ and ‘Fortress Australia’, a rising industrial power dubbed the ‘Britain of the South’.
It is rather ironic that the Mont Pèlerin Society lobbyists, who were shilling for Reaganomics in the 1980s, used to claim that ‘retaining the fortress’ would mean ‘turning into Albania’.
Albania used to be known for its very rapid Post-War economic construction: where it quickly went from a very backward, agrarian-only, mostly illiterate country; to being an industrialised, well-educated, mostly self-sufficient and modern one.
N.Z. did turn into Albania — post-1992 Albania, that is. Advanced industry in both countries collapsed entirely, living standards went into free-fall, thousands fled the country, and both economies were thrown backwards in time to the impoverished frontier past. (Large multi-national companies were very pleased, however.)
The greatest impediment to prosperity are the capitalist elites, whom created, then foisted upon the entire world, neoliberal economic policy, aka, neoliberalism, with the sole purpose of this policy being to redistribute the economic pie back from the many to the exclusive few, bearing in mind that FDR, after the great depression, upended tradition and changed that economic pie from its traditional – serving the few over the many setting to the unique – serving the many almost as much as serving the few period of the 1940’s to the early 1980”s.
You wish to return to the prosperous times of decades past, then you need to help break the hold that the neolib architects, aka, the capitalist elites, have over the political class. Only the power of a united people can break the hold that money has over global politics. No circling of the wagons or building a fortress will change this or usher in prosperity of the aforementioned unique era. Step one into uniting the people is to turn your back on the capitalist elite’s mainstream media machine.
As for climate science. What matters about climate science is that it is driving significant societal change. As such, only a true blue climate denier wouldn’t care about the validity and accessibility of the science, of the data, driving change. It matters that this science is both valid and available for all to see.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/jan/15/the-wall-by-john-lanchester-review
Perhaps another item to be added to your list is to give farmers subsidies or tax credits for state owned wind turbines that are placed on their land.
I agree with that.
A damn sensible idea and wind turbine on every farm funded by the state.
The Canterbury Plains could house 100s of them.
i was thinking Hauraki Plains and Waikato, but yeah, Canterbury would be ideal.
She’ll be right! 😉
I believe in Fortress Aotearoa and have for many years. It is the antitheses of neoliberal globalization.
I would vote for a party that implemented all of those policies in a heartbeat.
The problem is of course is that global anthropomorphic climate change is hurtling towards us regardless of what we do, who we vote for or what policies any future NZ government implements or not.
If NZ was the only country on earth there would be no climate change.
Our contribution to global emissions is less than 1 percent. The shit we are having dumped on us is caused by populous developing countries who are more interested in raising their people out of poverty than climate change. It’s their turn.
It’s the ultimate irony that globalization, which erodes sovereignty and self reliance, means our ability to survive is now not up to us.
‘She’ wont ‘be right’ mate!
Overwhelming MB….. my only critique that stands up is that Maori were self sufficient here for a lot longer than a century…. otherwise….sickeningly accurate.
What happened to Frank, indeed. -_-
Didnt the Book “The Chyrstalids.” by John Wyndham predict NZ as the lifeboat.
Just reading the door stopper book The Earth Transformed .Very interesting
.There have always been weather events that have changed history .In earlier days volcanoes erupting have caused dramatic cooling. The Earth moving on its axis and sunspots have caused problems . Add into the mix introduced disease as people moved into new areas coming upon people with no immunity. Millions have died but the Earth has bounced back and carried on with a new norm which will happen this time .We will live in new areas eat differently and carry on regardless . Adaptability will come to the fore and science will find solutions .
The irony is that if you want to become a self reliant fortress economy you will have to reopen the oil and gas fields and reinstate the refinery.
The developments in our trade sector in recent years would negate the concept of Fortress Aotearoa. In fact, with New Zealand, an isolated country, the more open we are to our allies, the better. As for foes, every country has them.
I thought the military were the biggest polluters on earth?
Yes to:
• Immediately ban all water exports (or sell at the same rate per liter that Gulf nations sell oil to us; fluid equality!)
• Massive investment into R&D from Government with the understanding research is to benefit NZ first before sold offshore.
• Large scale increase in Navy, Army & Airforce.
• Mass limiting of tourism numbers with increased tourist taxes.
• Only citizens can vote.
• Sustainable immigration and an end to exploitative migrant workers.
• Resettlement Programms for all pacific island neighbours.
• Fully funded public services.
• Mass Green housing rebuild.
• 100% renewable energy for entire country. (Well, to be realistic, let’s say 98-99%. 100% is a bit like the Road to Zero pie in the sky)
• Massive native tree planting across previous farming land (within reason; we still do need to eat, and the common weal is very dependent upon export dollars)
• Wholesale re-write of state services act to end commercial values.
• Investment into basic pharmaceutical production.
• Financial transaction tax
• Wealth tax
• Multinational tax
Absolutely NO to 10,000 refugees. Martyn, are you not aware of the $1m per day spent on “temporary” housing for Kiwis! Where would you put 10,000 more? All refugee quotas should be held off indefinitely, until housing is satisfactory (unless housing offered by non-governmental agencies/other family).
And yes, Fortress NZ may indeed come to be the reality. In which case, our obligation is to ourselves, not to the rest of the world.
Where not blocking refugees at the border
I re-read Chris Trotter’s take on Autarky that Martyn linked to and tried to think it through a bit more.
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2022/01/14/the-ships-from-the-north-why-autarky-cannot-be-new-zealands-answer-to-climate-change/
There are merits in both of their arguments, because to put it in simplistic terms as Chris says, if the ships stop coming from the North life gets difficult very quickly if anyone thinks their current situations however good or bad can be maintained.
But…when the climate turns to total shit, dystopian breakdown could happen way quicker than anyone thinks as Martyn postulates. Did 400 people in the Auckland Burbs envisage they would be washed away–or several hundred odd at Muriwai and other West Coast beaches, red stickered or basically stranded?
So there are surprises in store that no one is really prepared for maybe. Life could get local area based, and back to Rongoā Māori medicine and co-operating with neighbours way before you might want it to!
Dude I was brought up on McDonald’s, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Rachel Hunter there’s no going to hinerangi tempo for me.
The poem ‘If’ by Rudyard Kipling comes to mind. An oldie but the words still carry a sting that is refreshing – like after-shave. And it seems that we are going to have a close shave with disaster. I’ve put the words to If in the Open Mike. Worth a read.
With all that tax proposed it will be hard to find any business investors left . An increase in armed forces will be needed to keep the natives under control as they lose their jobs their homes and see no future ..
Why a 50 /50 split with Maori when they represent 20 percent of the population.
‘Only citizens can vote.’
Not enough. Must be citizens that can pass a scratch test showing that they understand the priority of urgency and cost required for action. That would do away with the wokest people and the present Green party which will change its name to the khaki party. I’m tired of excited. condemnatory people expecting that quoting their preferences loudly is the way to make good things happen.
JEEBERS!
I had better get that backyard landscaping and pergola project finished.
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