National – 35
Labour – 33
ACT – 12
Greens – 10
NZ First – 3
Māori Party – 3
The rise of a hard right Government supporting Landlords, Banks, Property Speculators and the building of a prison empire rises like a spectre at the famine.
The Billionaire class who have poured millions into ACT and National will be furious. National are still barely ahead of Labour and ACTs race baiting keeps empowering the Maori Party.
The election will be insanely close and we will either see an ACT/National block or a Labour/Green/Maori Party block that wins by 1 or 2.
Another possibility is a total fracturing of the MMP spectrum where NZF crosses the 5% or Shane wins Northland and TOP wins Ilam and brings in MPs off the Party list.
Comrades, the naked truth for the Left is that the only game in town is a Labour/Green minority Government with Supply and Confidence support from the Māori Party, and it will be the price of the Supply and Confidence support that gives the Left some actual wins and hope.
If the Maori Party are focused on legacy, they will make those bottom-lines for their Supply and Confidence support universal policies gains, not intrinsically Māori interests.
If they came out and said their bottom lines are:
- GST off Food
- Wealth Tax on Banks
- New Supermarket chain following the Commerce Commissions recommendations and taking 30% of the market backed by Iwi to be food providers and build true food security.
those policies would ultimately help everyone who is poor alongside helping Māori.
Bottom-lines as broad as that in a cost of living crisis will see many working poor vote Maori Party.
Labour holds the centre, the Greens just hold and the Maori Party does the heavy lifting.
That is the only mathematical way the Left wins.
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If ACT and National wins, then we can forget about public services, payrises, sick leave and clean rivers.
If NAct buy their way into power, expect what’s happening in France to happen here.
With their brand of failed austerity neolib. economics stealing from the public to prop up profits for the few, along with the climate chaos a monster El Nino summer may induce, it might just be the trigger for some unruly mobs on the streets methinks.
Scary times ahead.
Think of the positives, millsy will be able to say everyday, in righteous indignation “I told you so”.
If ACT and National don’t win, we will see a continuation of the failures of the past 6 years, including inflation at a 40 year high, violent offending up 42%, 64,000 students not attending school regularly, the proportion of ED patients not seen within 6 hours trebling, the PA social housing list up 450% etc etc.
Yes National Act will beat those numbers easily. Or maybe not inflation because if anything that is trending downward. Food inflation will most likely eases as the weather pattern changes and whatever party will somehow claim they had something to do with it.
Building bigger prisons is an absolute 100% admission that you are not expecting the crime rate to drop. If they actually thought they were reducing crime they wouldn’t be building bigger prisons.
How much do you earn Millsy? I’d be interested.
Enough. But National/ACT would probably have it cut.
It’s funny the way Kiwis never tell anyone what they earn, it’s one of the mechanisms that keeps your wages low. Ignorance is not strength, strengthis knowledge & numbers (join a Union). Petty jealousy generally has your employer laughing all the way to the bank with the extra money they didn’t have to pay you.
In the interests of transparency, I am on a salary of a little over $80k, if I wanted at least $50k more, I’d be back in Australia.
That was the whole purpose of the employment contracts act and the decimating of the unions .
Also in the interests of transparency I am on a salary of $112,000 + a company car . .
you first.
Do you think Labour has achieved any of that? Cos I sure as shit don’t.
The government induced inflation has made everyone poorer.
We get poorer under National. All they want to do is hold down wages.
Exactly and deprive public services.
and the sky will fall on your head too.
Cant be any worse than it is now Ivan.
Why?
If ACT and National wins, then we can forget about public services, payrises, sick leave and clean rivers.
Chuckle. Here’s a blast from the past, 2005 to be precise:
National must be stopped – now. i call out to everyone who is left to unite together and keep Don Brash out of power – even if it means industrial paralysis, civil disobedience and blood on the streets.
I did like the attempt at irony with the blog’s title of “Millsy, The Left Wing Nutter. You should start it up again despite your farewell in 2006, given that you’ve broken one of your self-bans.
Well, I just came on, to announce that I will be leaving the blogosphere for good. No blogging, no comments, no nothing.
ohhhh that thing. I forgot all about it.
I stand by my words.
Don Brash was the greatest threat to living standards in this country in 2005, and Luxon/Seymour are today.
Unfortunately, that’s exactly what’s been seen under the Labour traitors who have walked in Douglas and Clark’s shoes.
Boom!
Martyn – Greens at 10%…again, are they taking the poll in the nut house?
!
Rogue Estate – ?
Don’t underestimate the power of the overhang seat. If this kind of polling continues (TPM sitting at or below 3%) and National/Act slightly ahead then a few cups of tea to have TPM win 4 or more electorates in return for steering party votes to Labour etc could create 3 or 4 overhang seats and make it much more likely the left are in a position to form a govt.
Millsy u will still get sick leave, as there are either no doctors or they are to busy to authorize medical certificate s.
Landlords need to improve there standards and stop being greedy pricks no matter who is in power.
Banks if they don’t want a extra tax, then they need to do alot more community sponsor ship.
Alot of Labour voters are considering Green , because they remarkable ly love the 2 co leaders, TOp or even keen on ACT. But can’t stand the others
Yes but it’s a tvnz poll so who cares. That’s like taking an RNZ poll seriously. So long as stupid fucking Chip doesn’t fuck things up we should be ok.
Frankly, I’m amazed that Labour is still polling in the 30’s. Like I’ve been saying for a year now, this election is National/ACT’s to lose. I don’t discount any politician/political party of their innate ability to fuck up what should be an easy victory though.
I cannot see GST off food happening as common sense will stop it happening
Tax banks on windfall profit is a good idea
Giving iwi control of a portion of the Supermarket seems wrong .If they wanted to the various tribes in NZ have a pot full of money and brains to start their own chain so why have they not done if it is so lucrative. Ngai Tahu has plenty of suitable properties and business expertise. The fisheries given to Maori has not been used to support Maori youth as they get Russianskin to crew boats and now they want to stop the Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary so much for being guardians of the environment
Why? Dairies are perfectly capable of keeping a separate book for the GST receipts and for their actual revenues already. Supermarkets are not going to have to close because certain accounting lines have different GST rates.
Listen to Shane Reti. We can look forward to a health minister who knows what he’s doing
Quote quote dumb quote of the week – thanks for the laugh
Given Reti and his party underfunded health and increased our population by 1 million over 10 years, it’s hardly surprising what Reti says is correct. But then again, it’s akin to sending the fox into the hen house to get facts.
Funny that while National ‘underfunded’ healthcare back then I could still see my doctor in a day, we had less people on waiting lists and ED depts could see patients within an appropriate time.
Labour have flushed money into health and all those measures have gotten worse, care to explain why?
The left’s solution for everything is ‘ more money regardless of outcome’
BTW how’s Kiwibuild going?
BTW they outsourced surgeries to the private sector costing the taxpayers millions, back then our country wasn’t under the strains of covid and your doctor ” could” see you.
The rights answer is to flood the private sector everywhere with our hard earned.
BTW ” why was there a housing crisis in the first place and people living in cars”?
Given Reti and his party underfunded health and increased our population by 1 million over 10 years, it’s hardly surprising what Reti says is correct. But then again, it’s akin to sending the fox into the hen house to get facts.
Double-posting under different names!
Duplicity and a foolish error by National are Squeaky Clean.
Wow thank you troll!
Oooops, fucked up there! At least we know at least TWO of your handles on here now, why 2 do you feel you need to post double to make your point? Lol idiot.
Wow TWO troll handles Ada and I’m right.
Come back if you have anything sensible to say.
You have to be joking.
Reti wants to take away free presecriptions and let doctors charge as much as dentists for their service.
Fuck you Anker. Fuck you into the ground. Anyone who supports US style health care in this country is a direct threat to my living standards and quality of life and I will oppse them by all means nessesary.
2% is with in the margin of error and National always poll higher than their election day result so Labour are actually ahead.
N/Act just can’t make any headway despite their web of lies and deceit and their ill gotten gains war chest .
They have been in full campaign mode for well over a month now and can’t shift the dial.
If there just one properly trained serious journalist out there who has the ability to drill down and ask N/Act some proper searching questions about their ,(let’s face it), stupid, dumb, ill conceived policies, then they will just get faded into the pit over the next 3 months and be lucky to poll 30 /10 on election day.
Did you see those two newbies that ACT have just had to drag in…O.M.G … Hopeless and childlike…. like their leader and deputy.
Like National….ACT…. have… no… depth…
There’s going to be many a slip between cup and lip!
ACT are an appalling party, but it say’s more about the brain dead that have been sucked in.
Brilliant that National had a chance once upon a time to rid their hard right wing rivals forever, instead, they gifted them an electorate and now instead of adding ACTs 12 % to Nationals 35, National will always poll between the late 20’s and mid 30’%
For that, we are blessed.
Seymour: And here is our list of bottom lines. I’m sure you’ll find everything is in order.
Luxon: It’s a very long list.
Seymour: Yes, but I’m sure we can be civilised about this, and have an intelligent discussion.
Luxon: Shall we start with your first bottom line.
Seymour: By all means.
Luxon: You want me to let military style assault weapons back into the country.
Seymour: Of course.
Luxon: Well, I just can’t go along with you bringing in machine guns willy nilly.
Seymour: Really?
Luxon: We’ll have to agree to disagree, on your first bottom line. Will you be okay with it?
Seymour: You’ll have to pry that gun out of my cold dead hands, you damned dirty ape!
Luxon: I see more discussions may be in order.
What most people don’t realize is that lots of people in NZ have proper machine guns. I’ve played with a wide variety of really cool full-auto heavy machine guns, pistols and submachine guns.
This is because the ‘C’ class (collector) gun licences were completely unaffected by Arden’s confiscation. The likely reason for this is that many C licence holders have clout, including Ron Mark, who was a minister in the cabinet that did the confiscating.
Special rules for special people 😉
If only Labour had actually worked a bit for all then just the few they might not be having the issues they are having. But they did not. Squandered a full majority on fuck all.
Indeed. Labour had/has a full majority and is squandering it.
It is not too late. If they choose to, Labour could still use their full majority to quell the angry vote that is giving rise to the Right. They just need to put in a few social justice issues.
But they just don’t choose to.
I am dumbfounded, as I am sure most of their supporters are.
Clearly you don’t work for minimum wage sausage and have a nice warm dry house.
Your idea of “working for all” is so lopsided to the right one might think you’ve had a stroke.
No one is interested in what you have to say since you fucked up using 2 ‘names’…National are Squeaky Clean’ and this stupid name…guess you are also Mike Judge, Michelle Judge?…hell we can assume you are anyone now…idiot!
Are you serious Bob the first or are you Kraut? No one has any interest in your qanon right wing garbage. You are a troll of the highest order. Get back on Whale Oil where you belong.
I’m a right wing moron, there, fixed your non de plume.
If the left wins the country loses.
The infighting between TPM and Greens will see a greater ethnic ivision as they fight for the Maori vote .
Property investors will shut up shop as they fear regulation changes that will work against them.
Business leaders will stop,investment for the same reason.
Australia will look more attractive to anyone that wants to work hard and get ahead .This will cause greater shortages in health and education .
Well said Trevor.
I would rather live in a poor country. with high wages, low rents and free healthcare. Perhaps you should piss off to Australia. You hate it that workers have high wages, sick leave and dont have to pay through the nose for healthcare.
Honestly – I just want someone else to have a go. I cannot listen to the Greens or Labour any more. Sorry Chippy I just don’t trust this U turn approach. So late to the issues with no transparency & now copying National – lol. National the kiwi saver dip is technically terrible mathematics (in fact the journalists don’t explain this at all – they have all failed math’s only talking about compound interest but not understanding ‘dollar cost averaging’). -However, I guess if it keeps people under a roof as a student who don’t have parents to prop them up it means a another tool for youth to create their own destiny. However, has the MOSD stopped paying bonds? What the fks happening with NZ infrastructure – a month open and now Pūhoi-Warkworth motorway falling apart already?
The key thing now will be to ramp up immigration and let the whole shebang go full blown societal collapse. Got your escape plan?
New Zealand is a lot of people’s escape plan, and a convenient back door into a more economically desirable Australia.
Sounds incredibly stable. If it’s your escape plan, have you got those bars on your windows yet, or better yet… a Dotcom bunker? LOL
I’m home in NZ (in a heavily fortified bunker with 40 years of food & water, clutching my AR15) so don’t need to escape. However a lot of others out in the wider world see New Zealand as an easy access escape from the various issues that beset their own countries, climate change, poverty, overcrowding, lack of opportunity etc. Why do you think so many want to move here? High wages? Low cost of living? Affordable housing? Sleepy, easy to exploit hobbits?
If Chippy announced Labour would legalize cannabis, this could be enough to snag the small percentage of voters they need. People who are disillusioned with politics or fairly neutral, but love smoking weed. It’s not like it’s going to cost them any votes as all the prohibitionists are already voting Act or Nat’s. Could be one of the last cards up Chippy’s sleeve. Just Do it!
What do you expect with ‘Where in it for you’ culture.
Forged disabled documents to get discounts on top of all the other forgeries we keep seeing such as pretending to be a doctor.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/cerebral-palsy-society-asks-for-proof-of-disability-after-scammer-concerns/53YFSASGJ5G4FDKKGXBD3J6LSI/
Thieves are even stealing houses now, not nailed down! (Note the $7000 towing fee was to the victim not the criminals who stole the house).
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-tiny-home-burglary-leaves-haka-homes-owner-stunned-after-theft/J2CGR4ECEBBA5AG27YCPFWPPSA/
Home invasions where they run the victim over.
https://article.wn.com/view/2023/07/17/Auckland_woman_in_hospital_after_home_invasion_police_search/
or kill them.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/home-invasion-victim-spoke-to-police-before-dying-of-injuries/T6NVBIHHFRLJ4B4WTFQALV4CJU/
Who wants to get the basics right to help people not be victims of criminals who are allowed to do what ever they like in NZ with little penalty – even how easy it is to legally steal a car and allow someone else to get the bills!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/change-of-motor-vehicle-ownership-debacle-shocks-owner/OKTPG3DMFNHCRERSE3CQ5CM4F4/
Bank frauds ongoing and NZ is target! More than 1 hours to ring the emergency bank fraud hotline, inspite of billions in profits they can’t pay for quick telephone help for victims.
All transgender are eulogised as perfect (and transitioning is encouraged) and no questions are allowed to be asked in this space.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/transgender-sex-offender-alex-aleti-seu-to-stay-in-prison-as-parole-denied/UO2O7XTI4NGNZJFDFSQ2CHRHN4/
Woman are now classed as ‘criminals’ of rape not the victims, because those that ‘transition’ are now called woman in the reports. Stats now full of errors.
Culture of giving money away to freeloaders and ignoring, enabling and eulogising criminal behaviour while pretending the problems of NZ are those who are not criminals and paying taxes who get told to pay more and more to ‘help’ the criminals who keep reoffending in spite of all the hugs and counselling!
I can see why Labour and Greens enablement of criminals and ideology of cuddle/coddle a crim, has got to the point their supporters have had enough, can’t function here, (or left the country). Meanwhile criminals get to enjoy the “in it for you’ criminal culture that Labour and Greens seem to have made mainstream.
Clearly obvious you want to impose US style law, order and welfare in this country, the results of which arent even better.
I bet you loved it when Goerge Floyd was killed, same with Tyre Nichols and Jordan Neely. You sooo want a police state where cops are allowed to gun down who they want and people serve 10 year sentences for stealing a bit of bread,
Do you feel better making up stuff that people didn’t say? No wonder so many people are unemployable in this country and woke in charge have made it worse.
Woke as service staff.
Patron, Can I please have a gin and tonic.
Woke Bartender, Fuck you you racist scum, don’t you realise you are upholding slavery and oppression by ordering a colonial drink. By the fucking way, you didn’t address me by my correct pronouns you homophobic fuckwit. I bet you loved it when Goerge Floyd was killed, same with Tyre Nichols and Jordan Neely. You sooo want a police state where cops are allowed to gun down who they want and people serve 10 year sentences for stealing a bit of bread… rant continues…
Sanity will surely prevail and National/Act will form the next government.
That’s silly.
Labour made literally every aspect of New Zealand society worse.
So why the hell would anyone other than a masochist or idiot vote for them again?
Chippie was the Health Minister during covid. Am I only person here that remembers that Government overreach; the lockdowns, the masks, the mandates? The multiple breaches of the 1990 Bill of Rights Act? I mean anyone with with a working brain should be giving this clown a very hard pass. Never forgive. Never forget.
I well remember Nitrium and accordingly will be giving “this clown a very hard pass.”
So you think that COVID should have been allowed to just rip through the population and people just get left to die. Fuck your freedom. And as per usual, you go on about freedom, but want cops to start gunning down whoever they like and for homosexuality and transgenderism to be recriminalised.
Antivax, QAnon filth is what you have been, are and always will be. Covid was a nasty virus, but Trumpers like you dont care.
If Hipkins was serious he’d end the insane ‘Road to Zero’ nonsense. Absolutely disgusting waste of money.